Capital Essence Blog - 錢途集團: May 16, 2008

Friday, May 16, 2008

S&P seems poised for an upward push above the 200-day moving average

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Good Morning. This is Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Friday May 16, 2008.

As expected, stocks spent Thursday's morning trading around the zero line though a pullback in crude oil sparked a strong recovery rally in the afternoon with a majority of major indices up more than 1%.

U.S. light crude oil fell 26 cents to settle at $123.85 a barrel in a volatile session - crude traded as high as $125.70 per barrel, near its all time record high set last week.

Chart 1.1 – Light sweet crude oil index (daily).

Price continues basing sideway near high as it works off the overbought condition. The action is bullish and suggesting that there is a pretty good chance that we'll see a test of an important sentiment 130 level in the days ahead. Key support is at the area of April's high, about 117.

Tech stocks attracted some strong buying interest Thursday with the NASDAQ composite index rose 1.48% to finish at 2533.

Chart 1.2 – NASDAQ composite index (daily).

The main event here is a climb above the 200-day moving average on strong volume. The action is bullish and helped setting the stage for a test of key resistance at the area of January's bearish breakdown gap, about 2570. Immediate support is at the area of last week's low, about 2430.

Speaking of tech, shares of MetroPCS Communications Inc. (PCS) jumped 5.50% on explosive volume.

Chart 1.3 – MetroPCS Communications Inc. (daily).

Initially profiled in our May 12 "Swing trader bulletin" share of the wireless communications provider gains more than 7% and remained well position. Technically speaking, today's bullish breakout had helped setting the stage for a test of key resistance around the 22.70-24 area. Immediate support is at the 50-day moving average, about 18.50.

The drop in energy prices gave stocks a nice boost with the S&P 500 index gained about 15 points or 1.06% to close at 1423.

Chart 1.4 – S&P 500 index (daily).

The board market index claimed a new four-month high today. While today's trading action is bullish and indicating that the market is ready for an upward push above the 200-day moving average, trading volume didn't seem supporting the underlying advance. This is a bearish relationship and suggesting that the rally might not sustain. Immediate support is at the area of last week's low, about 1384.

In summary: Thursday's bullish trading action had helped setting the stage for an upward push above the S&P 200-day moving average. Unless the break of resistance happens on a big volume surge, the breakout might not sustain. As usual, we must stress out that tomorrow is the options expiration day, which is the most volatile trading session of the month, so you've got to watch-out for fake-head, or false price breakout.

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It's now available at a monthly rate.

標普準備上攻200日線

這是Capital Essence對2008年5月16日(週五)的市場技術分析。

恰如我們所料，昨天上午美股在前一交易日收盤附近運行，不過原油價格的回調在下午刺激大盤強力沖高，大部分主要股指漲幅均超過1%。

昨天美國輕質低硫原油價格強烈震盪，盤中一度上摸每桶125.70美元，接近上周創出的歷史新高，不過收盤出現回調，下跌26美分，收於123.85美元。

圖1.1 輕質低硫原油指數(日線圖)

原油價格繼續高位盤整，並慢慢走出超買區域。這一走勢是看漲的，未來數天油價測試130美元重要心理關口的可能性非常大。重要支撐位在4月高點區域，大約117美元。

昨天科技股迎來強勁買盤，納斯達克綜合指數大漲1.48%，收於2533點。

圖1.2 納斯達克綜合指數(日線圖)

昨天納指放量站上200日均線，這一點非常關鍵。因此昨天的走勢是看漲的，並為接下來測試1月份向下突破缺口的重要阻力位埋下了伏筆，大約2570點。緊鄰支撐位在上周低點，大約2430點。

科技股方面，昨天無線通訊服務供應商MetroPCS Communications(PCS)股價大漲5.5%，而且成交量暴增。

圖1.3 MetroPCS Communications(日線圖)

我們最早在Swing trader bulletin中對該股作出了推薦，至今漲幅已經超過7%，而且仍有很大的上漲空間。從技術上講，昨天的強勢突破是非常有利的，並為接下來測試22.7 -24美元的重要阻力帶打下了基礎。緊鄰支撐位在50日均線，大約18.50點。

能源價格的下跌有力地推高了股市，標普500指數走高大約15個點，收於1423點，漲幅1.06%。

圖1.4 標普500指數(日線圖)

昨天的大漲已經使得標普站上4個月來新高。昨天的走勢對後市是有利的，意味著市場已經準備好向200日均線的關鍵阻力發起攻擊，不過成交量並不支持這一可能走勢。價量關係不太有利，說明上漲動能難以持續。緊鄰支撐位在上周低點區域，大約1384點。

總結：週四大盤的走勢比較有利，為下一步標普站上200日線做好了準備。不過除非突破阻力位的走勢伴隨著成交量的大幅放大，否則突破還是會出現失敗。另外，我們必須提醒大家，今天是本月的期權到期日，有可能出現本月來震盪最劇烈的行情，因此今天出現"假突破"的走勢是很有可能的，對此須有心理準備。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。

The stage had been set for a test of weekly’s low

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Thursday May 15, 2008.

Stocks opened on a positive noted Wednesday in response to a milder-than-expected inflation report and falling oil prices also helped dampen inflation concerns. However, the sense that the market is pretty much overbought in a short-term basis triggered a large-scale sell-off that caused the major indices to give up a great bulk of their early gains. For the day, the Dow Jones industrial average gained 66 points or 0.5% to 12898 - that was about 100 points off its intraday high of 12993. The Standard & Poor's 500 index up 0.4%.

Despite the late-day weakness, shares of Lsb Industries Inc (LXU) held pretty well to the early gain - up 6.52% on strong volume.

Chart 1.1 – Lsb Industries Inc (daily).

Initially profiled in March 25 "Swing trader Bulletin", LXU has gained about 16% and remains well position. Actually, we really like the action over the past few days - volume picked up as prices cut through the March and April highs (see chart). Technically, today's bullish breakout had helped clear the one-week overhead resistance and set the stage for a test of key resistance around the area of the 200-day moving average, about $21. In short, the near term outlook remains bullish barring a close below last week's low at $16.25.

Large-cap tech stocks saw a steeper retreat from their intraday high — after being up 1.3%, the NASDAQ 100 index ETF (QQQQ) ended Wednesday trading session with a 0.22% lost. As matter of fact, today's trading action was pretty consistent to the "fake-out" scenario that we've offered in the previous "Cubes Speculator Bulletin" when we wrote that: "there is a pretty good chance that we'll see a test of January's bearish breakdown gap, about $50, follow by a bearish reversal into the area of 200-day moving average." The stock gave up all of the early gains - it reached as high as $49.93 in early Wednesday trading – and close slightly lower after the test of resistance at the $50 level was met with an aggressive wave of selling interest. Any ATM (at the money) put options traded could have gained at least 100% intraday.

Chart 1.2 – QQQQ (daily).

Price printed a bearish reversal bar right at the area of key resistance. Trading volume also confirmed the validity of today's bearish trading action. Technically speaking, these are bearish signs and suggesting further weaknesses in the days ahead. Immediate support is at the area of 200-day moving average, about $48. This, if violates, will trigger a large-scale sell-off that has the potential to push prices directly into the area the 50-day moving average, about $45.75.

Similar to the NASDAQ, the S&P also printed a bearish shooting star candlestick on the daily chart.

Chart 1.3 – S&P 500 index (daily).

As it was the case in the past couple of days, price dropped hard every time it hit the 200-day moving average, about 1425. So, it seems to us that the 200-day moving average is the line on sand. Also notice that volume picked up today though the real volume surge was due to late-day selling. And again, this is bearish. Right now, the most obvious level to watch is last Friday's low at 1384. As mentioned, a sustain decline below this level will trigger a large-scale sell-off that has the potential to push prices into the area of the 50-day moving average, about 1350.

In summary: Wednesday's trading action is pretty bearish and helped setting the stage for a test of last week's low at S&P 1384, then 1350 afterward. As mentioned, a failure to hold above this level will put an end to the powerful eight-week rally.

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

大盤將測試一周低點

這是Capital Essence對2008年5月15日(週四)的市場技術分析。

由於昨天公佈的CPI報告顯示通脹壓力趨緩，同時油價回落也減輕了投資者對通脹的擔憂，週三美股開盤走高。不過由於投資者意識到市場在短期內已經嚴重超賣，午後各大股指沖高回落，放棄了很大一部分漲幅。交易日結束，道瓊斯工業平均指數上漲66點，收於12898點，漲幅0.5%，不過比起盤中 12993的當日最高點仍低100點左右。標普500指數上漲0.4%。

儘管大盤尾盤重跌，Lsb Industries(LXU)股票卻很好地守住了上午的成果，放量大漲6.52%。

圖1.1 Lsb Industries(日線圖)

自從我們最早在3月25日的Swing trader Bulletin中對LXU作出推薦以來，該股已經上漲約16%，而且還有上漲空間。事實上，我們非常喜歡該股最近一段時間的走勢，價格突破3月和4月高點強力上攻，同時量能出現放大。從技術上講，昨天的強勢突破清除了一周來的上方阻力，為下一步測試200日均線附近的關鍵阻力打下了基礎，大約21美元。總而言之，除非股價跌破 16.25美元的上周低點，該股近期趨勢依然看漲。

昨天大盤科技股從當日高點出現深度回撤，NASDAQ 100 index ETF(QQQQ)盤中最高上漲1.3%，收盤翻紅下跌0.22%。事實上，昨天QQQQ的走勢同我們在昨天的Cubes Speculator Bulletin中提出的"假突破"的判斷非常吻合，我們當時提到："QQQQ非常有可能對1月份向下突破缺口作出測試(大約50美元)，然後掉頭向下，進入200日均線區域。"QQQQ昨日盤中一度上摸49.93美元，但是在測試50美元阻力位的時候遭遇強勁賣壓，全部放棄取得的成果且小幅低收。昨天任何平值看跌期權收益率都至少在100%。

圖1.2 QQQQ(日線圖)

昨天QQQQ剛好在關鍵阻力區域收出一根上影線，同時量能也確認了昨天的行情為看跌信號。從技術上講，放量下跌意味著未來數天價格還將進一步走低。緊鄰支撐位在200日均線區域，大約48美元。如果該支撐被突破，將觸發大面積拋盤，有可能直接將價格推低至50日均線區域，大約45.75美元。

同納指類似，昨天標普也在日線圖上收出了一根長上影線的燭形。

圖1.3 標普500指數(日線圖)

同過去幾個交易日一樣，每次價格上攻200日線(大約1425點)都會大幅回撤。因此看起來200日線似乎固若金湯。我們還注意到，昨天成交量有所上升，不過真正量能大漲恰恰是尾盤回調的階段，這也是一個看跌的信號。目前最應該關注的位置是上週五的低點，1384點。正如我們提到的，如果指數有效跌破這一位置，將觸發大規模拋盤，從而有可能將價格推至50日均線區域，大約1350點。

總結：昨天大盤的走勢是非常不利的，並為標普測試1384點的上周低點埋下了伏筆，如果1384點失守，接下來就是1350點。我們提到過，1350點失守，則意味著8周來的這一波強勁反彈行情壽終正寢。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

Market had lost the positive momentum

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Wednesday May 14, 2008.

We've offered right here in the previous Market Outlook that: "Monday's trading action is bullish and suggesting further short-term gains. However, the trading volume didn't seem supporting the strong price action. And this is indicating that the upcoming rally, if and when it comes, should be considered as a selling opportunity." Stocks closed slightly lower Tuesday amid a fresh round profit taking activities. Contributed to the overall weaknesses were another record energy prices and Wal-Mart's (WMT) disappointing earning guidance.

Crude oil spiked to an all-time high of $126.50 per barrel, before settling with a gain of 1.57% at $125.80.

Chart 1.1 – Light sweet crude oil index (daily).

Price continues basing sideway near high as it works off the extreme overbought condition. The action is pretty encouraging and suggesting "buy-the-dip" is still the best strategy. Immediate support is at the area of April's high, about 119.

Despite the better than expected April retail sales report, retail stocks were under pressure Tuesday amid a negative sentiment surrounding Wal-Mart's conservative guidance. Shares of the world's largest retailer lost 2.36% to $56.65. The S&P retail index lost 0.19% as a result.

Chart 1.2 – S&P retail index (daily).

Prices broke down below the March's trend-line though held the 50-day moving average. This is not bad though the bulls don't really have any cases unless they manage to overcome the ten-month falling trend-line and last week's high, about 425. Immediate support is about 390. This, if violates, will increase the odds for a test of critical support at the area of March's low, about 362.

Speaking of retail, shares of Big Lots Inc (BIG) posted a health gain of 1.13% Tuesday.

Chart 1.3 – Big Lots Inc (daily).

Initially profiled in our April 15 "Swing Trader Bulletin", shares of the closeout retailer has gained about 30% and remains well positioned. Technically speaking BIG remains strong but had rallied directly into the area of overhead resistance around the $29 level. This, if hurdle and sustain, will trigger an acceleration run that has the potential to push prices into the $31 level, then $35.60 afterward. On a long-term perspective, we're still bullish on BIG and expecting the stock to trend higher. Immediate support is at the area of the January's trend-line, now about $25.

Negative sentiment surrounding retail stocks dragged down the board market with the S&P 500 post a slight loss, about half a points or 0.04%.

Chart 1.4 – S&P 500 index (daily).

Price continues basing sideway around support. The action is pretty encouraging from a technical point of view given number of negative headlines – record high oil prices, Wal-Mart's disappointing guidance and Oppenheimer's bearish outlook on brokers. Though the one problem with Tuesday's trading was that volume actually picked up on down day. This had jeopardized Monday's impressive price gains and the well anticipate, big "200-day moving average" test. Right now, the most obvious level to watch is last Friday's low at 1384. This, if violates, will trigger a large-scale sell-off that has the potential to push prices into the area of the 50-day moving average, about 1350.

In summary: the market seems lost the positive momentum that was built on Monday. It could be ready to rollover and all it needs is a meaningful catalyst. Hopefully the April CPI – a major inflation gauge – which is scheduled to release Wednesday morning at 8:30am will do the trick. As noted above, keep an eye on S&P 1384. If we break this level, 1350 will show up in no time.

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

大盤已經失去上攻動力

這是Capital Essence對2008年5月14日(週三)的市場技術分析。

在昨天的市場前瞻中我們提到："週一的走勢是看漲的，預示著短期還會進一步走高。不過價格的強勁表現並沒有獲得量能的支持，這意味著接下來如果繼續反彈，應該被視為出貨的機會。"恰如我們所料，昨天出現一輪新的高位拋盤，大盤小幅低收。影響昨天股市的負面因素一是能源價格的繼續攀高，而是沃爾瑪 (WMT)發佈令人失望的業績目標。

昨天盤中原油期貨價格一度飆升至每桶126.50美元的歷史高點，收盤略有回調，收於125.80美元，漲幅1.57%。

圖1.1 輕質低硫原油指數(日線圖)

目前油價繼續在高點附近盤整，並慢慢走出嚴重超買的局面。這一走勢非常有利，意味著"逢低買進"仍是上上策。緊鄰支撐位在4月高點區域，大約119美元。

儘管4月份零售業銷售報告好於預期，但是全球最大的零售商沃爾瑪公司保守的業績目標引發投資者的憂慮，昨天零售股遭遇賣壓。沃爾瑪股價下跌2.36%，收於56.65美元。標普零售指數低收0.19%。

圖1.2 標普零售指數(日線圖)

零售板塊在跌破3月份上升趨勢線之後在50日均線找到支撐，這一形態不算太差，不過除非指數能夠攻佔10個月下降趨勢線和上周高點的阻力(大約 425點)，否則不會有太好的行情。緊鄰支撐位大約在390點。如果該支撐失守，有可能會把價格推向3月低點的關鍵支撐位，大約362點。

零售股方面，昨天Big Lots(BIG)表現不錯，上漲1.13%。

圖1.3 Big Lots(日線圖)

自從我們最早在4月15日的Swing Trader Bulletin中對該清倉貨零售商的股票作出買入推薦以來，迄今股價已經上漲約30%，而且勢頭依然很好。技術形態方面，BIG動能依然很強，不過已經觸到29美元附近的上方阻力位。如果能夠有效突破這一阻力，激發的動能將使得價格加速衝向31美元的價位，然後是35.60美元。長期來看，我們繼續看漲 BIG。緊鄰支撐位在1月份開始的上升趨勢線附近，目前大約在25美元。

投資者對零售板塊的負面情緒也拖累了大盤，標普500小幅下挫約半個點，跌幅0.04%。

圖1.4 標普500指數(日線圖)

價格依然在支撐附近橫向整理。考慮到消息面的幾大利空：油價創新高、沃爾瑪保守財測、Oppenheimer調降券商業績，昨天的走勢從技術上講是非常有利的。不過昨天的行情也有一個問題，那就是下跌實際上伴隨著量能的放大。這抵消了週一價格強勁上揚的正面影響，並危及到眾所期待且意義重大的對 200日線的測試。目前最需要關注的位置是上週五的低點，在1384點。如果這一支撐被擊穿，將觸發全線拋盤，並有可能將價格推低至50日均線的區域，大約1350點。

總結：市場似乎已經失去了週一集聚的上升動能，可能已經準備好掉頭向下，需要的只是一個大的利空消息的刺激。也許今天上午8點半發佈的CPI數據能夠起到這個催化劑的作用。正如上面提到的，請大家關注標普1384點的位置，一旦跌破，1350點近在咫尺。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

Rally might not sustain

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Tuesday May 13, 2008.

Stocks staged a recovery rally Monday with the Dow gained 130 points or 1.02% to finish at 12876. Contributed to the overall optimism was a falling energy price - U.S. light crude oil for June delivery fell $1.73 to settle at $124.23 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after settling at a record $125.96 per barrel on Friday. Energy stocks were under selling pressure as a result - the HOLDRS Oil Service ETF (OIH) lost 1.67% to close at $203.49.

Chart 1.1 – HOLDRS Oil Service ETF (daily).

Monday's trading action was pretty consistent to the bearish case that we've offered in the previous Market Outlook: "the sector printed a potential bearish double top pattern on the daily chart. In addition, the MACD indicator is also trending below its signal line since late April. This is bearish and hence increased the odds for a retest of key support at the area of May's low, about 190. This, if violates, will complete the bearish double top pattern and hence indicates that the sector is in a midst of a medium-term correction cycle. A sustain decline below 201 will confirm this." While today trading action is bearish, we'll remain on the sideline until there's a sustain breakdown below the 201 level. Again, at this juncture, only a sustain breakout above this level can wreck the near-term bearish outlook. Key resistance is at the area of April 21^st high, about 210.60.

Despite the negative sentiment surrounding the energy stocks, shares of James River Coal Company (JRCC) added on to last week's massive gains, jumped more than 5% to $32.72.

Chart 1.2 - James River Coal Company (daily).

Initially profiled in March 26 "Swing trader Bulletin", shares of the coal producer has gained about 100% and remains well position. Actually, we really like the action over the past few days. Volume has picked up, as prices cut through key resistance at the area of 2005, 2006 lows (see chart). Technically, JRCC remains very strong, but has reached overbought level in all time frames – a situation that precursor to a pullback consolidation period - so it wouldn't surprise us to see some backings and fillings in the days ahead. On a long-term perspective, however, we're still bullish on JRCC and expecting the stock to trend higher. Immediate support is at the area of April's high, about $26.75.

Financial stocks provided leadership in Monday's advance with the KBW bank index gained more than 2%.

Chart 1.3 - KBW bank index (daily).

As a matter of fact, today trading action had confirmed the validity of the "oversold rebound" scenario that we've traced out in the previous Market Outlook when we wrote that: "the short-term RSI indicator is indicated that the sector had reached an extreme oversold condition, so it wouldn't surprise us to see a technical rebound." Technically speaking, the ability to hold above the 50-day moving average is pretty encouraging (see chart) though the bulls will need to overcome the looming seven-month falling trend-line resistance in order to turn the medium-term trend up. That being said, until we see a sustain breakout above May 02^nd high at 88.67, the bears shall continue to have the benefit of the doubts. Critical support is at the area of March's low, about 75.

Strength in the financial sector had helped lifting the board market significantly higher with the S&P 500 gained about 15 points or 1.10% to 1403. Though trading volume was pretty disappointed.

Chart 1.4 – S&P 500 index (daily).

The S&P held double supports at the March's trend-line and the April's bullish breakout point, about 1390. This is bullish and helped setting the stage for another test of the looming 200-day moving average, about 1430. This, if hurdle and sustain, will turn the long-term trend up though it's not expected tomorrow. Immediate support is about 1383. As mentioned, a failure to hold above this level will push prices directly into the area of key support at the 50-day moving average, about 1350.

In summary: Monday's trading action is bullish and suggesting further short-term gains. However, the trading volume didn't seem supporting the strong price action. And this is indicating that the upcoming rally, if and when it comes, should be considered as a selling opportunity.

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

市場或借反彈出貨

這是Capital Essence對2008年5月13日(週二)的市場技術分析。

昨天美股出現較大幅度反彈，道指上漲130點，收於12876點，漲幅1.02%。導致市場樂觀情緒的因素之一是能源價格的下跌，紐約商業交易所6 月份交割的美國輕質低硫原油期貨價格下跌1.73美元，收於每桶124.23美元，從上週五每桶125.96美元的歷史高位出現回調。受此影響，週一能源股遭遇賣壓，HOLDRS Oil Service ETF(OIH)下跌1.67%至203.49美元。

圖1.1 HOLDRS Oil Service ETF(日線圖)

OIH週一的走勢同我們在昨天的市場前瞻中作出的看跌判斷非常一致，我們當時寫道："該ETF在日線圖上形成了一個"雙頂"的雛形。另外， MACD指標自從4月底以來一直低於信號線。這都是看跌的信號，增加了價格重新測試3月低點關鍵支撐的可能性，大約190美元。如果這一支撐失守，將形成一個完整的"雙頂"形態，意味著板塊已經進入一輪中期回調走勢。如果價格有效跌破201美元，將對此作出確認。"昨天的走勢是看跌的，不過在價格有效跌破 201美元之前，我們暫時保持觀望。關鍵阻力位在4月21日高點區域，大約210.60美元。同樣，在目前形勢下，只有堅定突破這一位置，才能逆轉短期看跌的態勢。

儘管能源股遭遇利空，但是James River Coal Company(JRCC)股價在上周大漲的基礎上繼續飆升5%以上，收於32.72美元。

圖1.2 James River Coal Company(日線圖)

自從我們最早在3月26日的Swing trader Bulletin中對該煤炭股作出推薦以來，漲幅已經達到100%，而且仍有上行空間。事實上，過去幾個交易日的走勢非常有利，成交量放大，同時價格洞穿 2005和2006年低點的關鍵阻力位。從技術上講，JRCC動能依然十分強勁，不過無論從長中短期來看，目前都已經進入超買，因此未來數天很有可能會出現一波回調和整理行情。不過從長期來看，我們依然看好JRCC，預計它還將進一步攀高。緊鄰支撐位在4月高點區域，大約26.75美元。

週一金融股充當了領漲的角色，KBW銀行指數漲幅超過2%。

圖1.3 KBW銀行指數(日線圖)

事實上，昨天銀行板塊的走勢印證了我們在昨天的市場前瞻中提出的"超賣反彈" 的判斷，我們當時提到："短期相對強弱指標(RSI)顯示板塊已經進入嚴重超賣的局面，因而我們預計未來數天可能先出現一波技術反彈。"從技術上講，指數能夠堅守在50日均線上方是十分有利的，不過多頭要想扭轉中期跌勢，還需要攻克上方7個月來下降趨勢線的強大阻力。總而言之，在指數有效突破5月2日高點 (88.67點)之前，空頭依然掌握著主導權。關鍵支撐位在3月低點區域，大約75點。

金融板塊的動能有力地推高了大盤，標普500指數上漲約15個點，收於1403點，漲幅1.10%。不過昨天大盤的成交量非常令人失望。

圖1.4 標普500指數(日線圖)

標普在3月份開始的上升趨勢線和4月份向上突破位的雙重阻力處獲得承托。這是一個看漲信號，為指數再次測試1430點附近的200日線埋下了伏筆。如果指數能夠有效突破200日線，將使得長期趨勢轉跌為升，不過這一切不會在今天發生。緊鄰支撐位大約在1383點。正如我們提到的，如果指數跌破這一位置，將把價格直接推向50日均線的關鍵支撐區域，大約1350點。

總結：週一的走勢是看漲的，預示著短期還會進一步走高。不過價格的強勁表現並沒有獲得量能的支持，這意味著接下來如果繼續反彈，應該被視為出貨的機會。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

Expect a continue weakness in equities

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Monday May 12, 2008.

We've noted in the previous market outlook that: "the market had a change of character today - it held tough in the face of the bearish breakdown in the retail and financial sectors. This is a short-term plus for the bulls. However, the bleeding [in these two key sectors] has to stop right now; else we could be in for some serious selling in the days ahead." Stocks broke down Friday with the Dow losing more than 100 points, after AIG's (AIG) massive losses and write downs in its first quarter earnings report sparked fears of continuing credit woes. The KBW bank index lost 0.71% as a result.

Chart 1.1 - KBW bank index (daily).

As expected, the sector followed through to the downside Friday. While the action is bearish suggesting further weaknesses, the short-term RSI indicator is indicated that the sector had reached an extreme oversold condition, so it wouldn't surprise us to see a technical rebound follow by a panic selling in the days ahead. At this juncture, only a sustain advance above 90 can wreck the bearish outlook. Critical support at the area of March's low, about 75.

Also contributed to the overall weakness was a record high oil price - U.S. light crude oil for June delivery settled at a record $125.96 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after hitting a trading record of $126.20 earlier. Speaking of energy, shares of Fording Canadian Coal Trust (FDG) rose 2.71% to close at $71.59 - a new record high.

Chart 1.2 - Fording Canadian Coal Trust (daily).

Initially profiled on May 5 "Swing trader Bulletin", FDG has gained about 13% and remains well position. Technically speaking, Friday's break to the upside is very bullish and helped setting the stage for an acceleration run toward the key sentiment 75-80 level. In short, the near term out look remains bullish barring a close below last Monday's bullish breakout point, about $67.

Despite the rise in oil prices, the energy sector was a primary laggard throughout Friday trading session.

Chart 1.3 – HOLDRS Oil Service ETF (daily).

The sector printed a potential bearish double top pattern on the daily chart. In addition, the MACD indicator is also trending below its signal line since late April. This is bearish and hence increased the odds for a retest of key support at the area of May's low, about 190. This, if violates, will complete the bearish double top pattern and hence indicates that the sector is in a midst of a medium-term correction cycle. A sustain decline below 201 will confirm this. Key resistance is at the area of April 21^st high, about 210.60. At this juncture, only a sustain breakout above this level can wreck the near-term bearish outlook.

Weaknesses in the financial and energy stocks dragged down the board market with the S&P 500 gave up about 9 points or 0.67% to finish at 1388.

Chart 1.4 – S&P 500 index (daily).

Investors who hoped for a quick turnaround in the second half of the year found themselves disappointed last week. The S&P broke decisively below the important sentiment 1400 level, lost about 1.28% for the week. Although the trading action was not very encouraging, the medium-term uptrend is still intact at this point. As a matter of fact, the S&P is currently sitting at minor support at the area of May 01^st bullish breakout point. As mentioned, a failure to hold above the 1383 level will increase the probability for a test of key support at the area of the 50-day moving average, about 1350. This, if violated, will put an end to the recent seven-week rally. Key resistance is at the area of 200-day moving average, about 1430.

In summary: there's no getting around the fact that record high commodities prices are putting extreme pressure on the bullish case. Although the short-term chart is still showing that the bear won't have any cases until there's a close below S&P 1350. That being said, while we expect a continue weakness in equities, there's no clear technical evidence that suggests the bear-market rally that starts from March 17^th low has come to an end, at least at this point.

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

大盤可能繼續走軟

這是Capital Essence對2008年5月12日(週一)的市場技術分析。

我們在上週五的市場前瞻中提到："昨天大盤暫時收住了下滑的步伐，在零售和金融兩大板塊重跌的情況下巋然不動。這在短期內對多頭是有利的，不過兩大板塊的必須要停止下挫，否則會在接下來的交易日導致大盤出現強力拋售的局面。"上週五，美國國際集團(AIG)第一季財報出現巨額虧損和減記再次引發市場對信貸市場的擔憂，股市大幅下挫，道指下跌逾百點。KBW銀行指數下挫0.71%。

圖1.1 KBW銀行指數(日線圖)

恰如我們所料，上週五銀行板塊繼續下挫。這一走勢是看跌的，意味著後市還將進一步下探，不過短期相對強弱指標(RSI)顯示板塊已經進入嚴重超賣的局面，因而我們預計未來數天可能先出現一波技術反彈，接著或許會有一輪恐慌性拋盤。在當前形勢下，指數只有堅定站上90點才有可能逆轉跌勢。關鍵支撐位在 3月低點區域，大約75點。

另一個利空因素是油價再創新高，上週五紐約商業交易所6月份交割的美國輕質低硫原油期貨價格收於每桶125.96美元的歷史新高，盤中曾上摸每桶126.20美元。能源股方面，Fording Canadian Coal Trust(FDG)上週五大漲2.71%，收於71.59美元的歷史新高。

圖1.2 Fording Canadian Coal Trust(日線圖)

自從我們在5月5日的Swing trader Bulletin中對FDG作出推薦以來，至今股價已經上漲約13%，而且仍有上行空間。從技術上講，上週五的突破走勢非常有利，為進一步加速上攻至75 -80美元的重要心理價位打下了基礎。總而言之，除非股價收盤跌破上週一的向上突破位(大約67美元)，否則近期依然看漲。

儘管油價上漲，但是上週五能源板塊卻成了一個領跌主力。

圖1.3 HOLDRS Oil Service ETF(日線圖)

該ETF在日線圖上形成了一個"雙頂"的雛形。另外，MACD指標自從4月底以來一直低於信號線。這都是看跌的信號，增加了價格重新測試3月低點關鍵支撐的可能性，大約190美元。如果這一支撐失守，將形成一個完整的"雙頂"形態，意味著板塊已經進入一輪中期回調走勢。如果價格有效跌破201美元，將對此作出確認。關鍵阻力位在4月21日高點區域，大約210.60美元。在當前形勢下，只有堅定突破這一支撐，才能逆轉近期看跌的態勢。

金融股和能源股的弱勢給大盤造成拖累，標普500指數下跌9個點至1388點，跌幅0.67%。

圖1.4 標普500指數(日線圖)

對於那些希望股市在下半年轉暖的投資者而言，上周是令人失望的一周。標普果斷返回1400點心理關口下方，整周跌幅大約1.28%。儘管上周大盤表現不佳，不過就目前而言，中期上升趨勢依然完整。事實上，標普當前在5月1日向上突破的次要支撐區域獲得承托。我們曾提到，如果標普失守1383點，將增加向下測試50日均線關鍵支撐的可能性，大約1350點。如果指數進一步擊穿50日線，最近7周來的漲勢將宣告終結。關鍵阻力位在200日線區域，大約 1430點。

總結：毫無疑問，最近商品價格屢創新高給大盤的上攻帶來巨大壓力。不過從短期圖形來看，只要標普不收於1350 點下方，空頭並沒有太大機會。總而言之，短期內股市可能進一步走低，不過至少從目前來看，並沒有明確的技術理由顯示從3月17日低點開始的這輪熊市反彈行情已經走到盡頭。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)