Capital Essence Blog - 錢途集團: Apr 8, 2008

Tuesday, April 08, 2008

The stage had been set for a significant reversal

Editor's note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence's CEM News. It's being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Tuesday April 08, 2008.

On Monday, stocks opened on a positive tone with the Dow gained more than a hundred points at its high of the day after The Wall Street Journal reported that Washington Mutual (WM) could see a $5 billion investment. The news had helped to put in a bid in the financial stocks as investors believed that the worst is over with for the market. However, stocks came off their highs on a surprising announcement from Arch Coal Inc (ACI) midday that their earnings would be below expectations at $2.00-$2.50 a share (est. $2.42). The news, in our opinion, was simply a cruel awakening [to investors] that the upcoming earnings season is likely to be an endless chain of disappointments. As a matter of fact, this was confirmed after the close, when aluminum giant Alcoa Inc (AA) reported earnings that were below expectations.

Despite the selling pressure, James River Coal Company (JRCC) jumped 4.47% to $20.32, a new 52-week high, on the heel of last week's impressive gain of 16%. Shares of the coal producer gains more than 23% since featured in our March 26 "Swing trader Bulletin" as a potential buy candidate. Although seemingly overly extend at current level, expect the stock to draw in buyers on a pullback to previous bullish breakout point, about $18.

Chart 1.1 – LifeCell Corp (daily).
Also topping headlines was the news that LifeCell Corp. (LIFC) agreed to a $1.7 billion cash takeover by medical technology company Kinetic Concepts Inc. Shares of skin graft maker soared 16.94%, an all-time high, Monday or more than 35% since featured in our February 26 "Swing trader Bulletin" as a potential buy candidate.

Let's take a look at the major indices:

Chart 1.2 – Dow Jones industrial average (daily).
The index tagged key price level today. At first glance, recent trading actions had the same characteristics of what we've seen in prior rebounds that later failed. In addition, trading volume continues to contract as prices moved higher and this makes it exceptionally difficult for the market to overcome resistance around the 12750 level. With all that said, there is a fairly good chance for a test of support at the 50-day moving average, now at 12380, in the upcoming days.

Chart 1.3 – S&P 500 index (daily).
Similar to the Dow, the S&P 500 had also tagged the lower end of the layer of the overhead resistance that runs from 1387 to 1406. As mentioned, not only that this is a tough level to overcome, the overbought condition, which is getting more severe each day, makes it exceptionally difficult for the bulls to push prices above this level. Immediate support is at the area of 50-day moving average, about 1335. Critical support remains at the area of March low, about 1260.

In summary: general speaking, the overbought condition basically sets the stage for a significant reversal. With all that said, while seemingly vulnerable for short-term weaknesses, the bulls shouldn't get into any serious trouble as along as prices hold above key support at the area of 50-day moving average.

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It's now available at a monthly rate.

很快將出現大幅回調

這是Capital Essence對2008年4月8日(週二)的市場技術分析。

週一股市高開，同時由於《華爾街日報》報道Washington Mutual(WM)可能獲得50億美元注資，道指盤中最高漲幅一度超過百點。這一利好消息使得投資者相信市場最低潮時期已經過去，從而助推了金融股的走高。不過午盤時分，由於Arch Coal Inc(ACI)出人意料地宣佈其每股盈利目標將低於市場預期的2-2.5美元的區間(平均預測值2.42美元)，大盤沖高回落。在我們看來，這一消息無疑給投資者敲響了警鐘，告訴他們即將到來的財報季可能帶來一連串的失望消息。事實上，盤後美鋁(AA)公佈的不及預期的財報恰好證明了這一點。

儘管大盤遭遇賣壓，但是James River Coal Company(JRCC)股價在上周飆漲16%的基礎上，昨天大漲4.47%，收於20.32美元，創出了52周新高。自從我們3月26日在Swing trader Bulletin中對該股做出推薦以來，其價格漲幅已經高達23%。儘管目前上漲空間已經被大幅壓縮，不過如果它能夠回調至18美元左右的前期向上突破位，預計還將吸引不少買盤。

圖1.1 LifeCell Corp(日線圖)

昨天還有一大消息便是LifeCell(LIFC)同意以17億美元現金收購醫藥科技公司Kinetic Concepts。昨天LifeCell股價飆升16.94%，創出歷史新高。自從我們2月26日在Swing trader Bulletin中對該股做出推薦以來，股價漲幅已經超過35%。

再來看看主要股指的情況：

圖1.2 道瓊斯工業平均指數(日線圖)

昨天道指上摸關鍵價格阻力。從圖形上可以一目瞭然的是，目前的價格走勢同前期最終流產的反彈企圖頗為類似。況且，價格的走高繼續伴隨著量能的萎縮，這使得道指攻克12750點附近的阻力位尤為困難。由此看來，在接下來的交易日中，道指很有可能向下測試50日均線的支撐位。

圖1.3 標普500指數(日線圖)

同道指類似,標普500昨天同樣觸到了1387-1406點之間的上方阻力帶的下邊線。我們曾提到，這一阻力帶非常牢固，加上超買的局面一天比一天嚴重，因此多頭要攻佔這一要塞困難重重。最近的支撐位在50日均線附近，大約1335點。關鍵支撐位仍然在3月低點附近，大約1260點。

總結：總的來說，目前大盤的超買局面非常嚴重，很有可能出現大幅回調。不過話又說回來，儘管短期回調似乎可能性非常大，但是只要各大股指堅守在各自50日均線的關鍵支撐上方，多頭便不會陷入嚴重的困境。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。

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Upside could be limited to S&P 1400

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Monday April 07, 2008.

On Friday, the stock market closed out a strong week on a dull note, ending the day near the unchanged mark. Though don't let the light-volume, low volatility day fool you into thinking nothing happened today. Friday trading action was, in fact, very important considering the big bad job report. According to the US government report, nonfarm payrolls declined by 80,000, which is worse than the expected 50,000 decline. February's decline was revised to 76,000 from 63,000. Manufacturing payrolls fell by 48,000, falling short of the expected decline of 35,000. The unemployment rate ticked up to 5.1% from 4.8%. Economists expected a rate of 5.0%. More importantly, U.S. jobs declined for the third straight month. With all that said, the ability to hang on to last Tuesday's massive gain of 400 points in the face of the disappointing job report is pretty bullish and suggesting that the "sell the rally" mentality, which has been the case since last October, might have been broken.

Despite the flat tape, shares of Titan International Inc (TWI) set a new record high Friday. Shares of the auto parts manufacture advance for fourth consecutive days immediately followed our bullish discussion in the April 2 "Swing trader Bulletin". Technically speaking, Friday's upside breakout is very bullish and helped setting the stage for an acceleration run to the $40 level.

It worth noticing that, the tame job report gave commodities a significant boost that saw spot gold jumped $12.65 to $912.90 an ounce.

Chart 1.1 – World Gold index (daily).

Friday's gain had done nothing to repair the damage done over the past couple of week. As you can see, recent decline in gold prices has been significant as it broke below the 50-day moving average. The action had flipped the medium-trend from up to down. In addition the moving average convergence divergence, or MACD, indicator had not only trending below its signal line but also crossed below the zero line, and hence confirmed the validity of the above medium-term bearish outlook.

However, given that hat long-term bull market in commodity remains intact, traders are looking forward to buy the upcoming dip. And the question is: "what's likely downside target from which the long-term trend can resume?" There area hundred or thousand answers out there though one easy and quite efficient method is to take advantage of the tendency for price to rebound after it had retraced, or pull back, to key moving average. Right now, the most obvious level to watch is the 200-day moving average, about 800 now. This is good place where bargain hunters often place their bets. However, if the buyers do not step in then we'll know that the long-term bull market in commodity might be…over.

Financial sector remained the laggard amid another round of earnings estimate cuts. JPMorgan cut its earnings estimates at Citigroup (C), Bank of America (BAC) and Wachovia (WB). And to add insult to injury, Deutsche Bank reported that they've added JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Citigroup, Sun Trust Banks (STI) and PNC Financial (PNC) to their portfolio as short-term sell ideas. The bank cited continued issues related to increasing credit losses, capital markets dislocations, and revenue growth at the banks. The KBW bank index dropped 2.22% as a result.

Chart 1.2 – KBW Bank index (daily).

Prices still perched just below resistance at the six-month falling trend-line, not at 90. The action is not very encouraging though the bulls will not get into any serious trouble as long prices hold above last week's low at 78.

As mentioned, a bullish breakout above the 90 level will break the long-term down-trend in the financial stocks. This, if happens and sustained, will be a significant victory for bulls. Major support is at the area of March low, about 73.

Despite strength in the materials sector, gained 1.4% Friday and up 6.6% for the week, bad news surrounding the financial stocks dragged on the board market. The S&P 500 index gave back all of the early gain to close around the flat-line.

Chart 1.3 – S&P 500 index (daily).

The index continues to consolidate beneath key resistant level. The action is not very encouraging. In addition, not only that this is a tough level to overcome, the relative strength index, or RSI, indicator is also fast approaching the overbought level, so it will not surprise us to see some sorts of weakness in the days ahead. While seemingly vulnerable for a short-term pullback, the bulls shouldn't get into any serious trouble as long they hold above last week's bullish breakout point, about 1310. Critical support remains at the area of March low, about 1260.

In summary: while the short-term trend remains up, the chart are building on encouraging formations and, most important, the S&P 1400 continues to act as price magnet, the pressure in credit markets could keep buyers at bay. And this will put the lid on the upside. With all that said, until proven otherwise, upside reward could be limited to S&P 1400.

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

標普1400將是漲勢上限

這是Capital Essence對2008年4月7日(週一)的市場技術分析。

上週五美股走勢平淡、基本平收，但是整周的行情非常強勁。加上成交量非常低迷，投資者可能會認為上週五的行情無足輕重，但實際上，考慮到就業報告的重大利空，當天股市的表現已經算非常不錯。根據美國政府披露的數據，3月份非農支薪人數下降了8萬人，高於市場預期的5萬人的降幅。另外2月份非農支薪人數的下降從6.3萬修正至7.6萬人。製造業支薪人數下降4.8萬，高於下降3.5萬的預期數字。這樣失業率便從4.8%上升至5.1%，同樣高於經濟學家預測的5.0%。更為嚴重的是，美國就業率已經連續3個月出現下降。從上述消息來看，上週五美國股市在就業報告的重大利空下，能夠堅守上週四大漲 400點的成果，是一個非常有利的信號，說明從去年10月以來股市"反彈即出貨"的思維定勢有可能已經被打破。

儘管大盤幾乎不漲不跌，上週五Titan International Inc(TWI)卻創出了歷史新高。自從我們在4月2日的Swing trader Bulletin中對該汽車配件商股票作出推薦以來，該股隨後連續4個交易日出現上漲。從技術上講，上週五的突破非常有利，為進一步加速沖高至40美元的價位打下了基礎。

值得注意的是，就業報告的不利消息大幅推高了商品價格，黃金現貨大漲12.65美元，收於每盎司912.90美元。

圖1.1 世界黃金指數(日線圖)

上週五的漲勢絲毫未能修復過去兩周造成的損害。從圖上我們可以看到，近期黃金價格在跌破50日均線之後大幅下挫，從而使中期趨勢由升轉跌。除了均線與價格出現背離走勢外，MACD指標也既低於信號線又探至零線下方，從而確認了中期看跌判斷的有效性。

不過，由於商品市場的長期牛市依然沒有改變，進一步探底之後投資者可能會進場抄底。現在的問題是：在長期趨勢恢復之前，下跌的空間還有多大？這一問題的答案興許各種各樣，不過一個最有效的判斷方法是看關鍵均線。目前我們最應該的關注的便是200日均線，眼下大約在800美元。對於打算抄底的投資者而言，這可能是一個最合適的介入點。不過，如果這時沒有出現買家入場的局面，我們也許可以判斷出商品市場的長期牛市可能走向終結。

由於出現新一輪的盈利預期調降，金融板塊的表現依然落後於大盤。JP摩根(JPM)調降了對花旗集團(C)、美國銀行(BAC)和美聯銀行 (WB)的盈利預期。另外火上澆油的是，德國銀行將JP摩根大通、花旗集團、Sun Trust Banks(STI)、PNC Financial(PNC)加入了其短期賣出名單。德銀舉出的理由一是信貸虧損的擴大，二是資本市場的混亂局面，另外則是銀行業營收增幅的放緩。結果上週五KBW銀行指數下跌2.22%。

圖1.2 KBW銀行指數(日線圖)

目前指數依然位於6個月下降趨勢線下方，趨勢線目前的位置是90點。這一形態並不是特別有利，不過只要指數堅守在上周低點、78點上方，多頭便不會遭遇嚴重困境。

我們曾提到，如果銀行指數站上90點的位置，將突破長期下降趨勢線。如果指數能夠突破並堅守該位置，對於多頭而言無疑是一大勝利。重大支撐位在3月低點附近，大約73點。

儘管原料板塊動能強勁，上週五上漲1.4%，上周上漲6.6%，但是金融股的負面消息還是拖累了大盤，標普500放棄了上午的全部漲幅，最後平收。

圖1.3 標普500指數(日線圖)

標普繼續在關鍵阻力位下方整固，這一走勢並不是特別有利。況且，不但這一阻力易守難攻，而且相對強弱指標(RSI)也快速接近超買領域，因此未來數天出現一定的走低行情是不足為奇的。儘管大盤短期內非常有可能出現回調，但是只要標普能夠守住1310點附近的上周突破位，多頭並不會遭遇太大麻煩。關鍵支撐位依然在3月低點附近，大約1260點。

總結：隨著大盤出現的這一波短期漲勢，圖形也變得越來越有利，但是最為重要的，標普1400點的位置將繼續成為一道艱難險阻，同時，來自信貸市場的壓力將使得多頭步履維艱。這意味著如果不出意外的話，標普1400點的位置可能就是漲勢的上限。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)