Capital Essence Blog - 錢途集團: Apr 1, 2008

Tuesday, April 01, 2008

Market is setting up for another push higher

Editor's note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence's CEM News. It's being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Tuesday April 01, 2008.

The Street end higher on the last day of the brutal first quarter with the Dow Jones industrial average added 46 points or 0.38% to finished at 12262. As usual, there were a bit of volatility in Monday trading session as traders buy winners and sell losers. Financials and homebuilders were the big winner of the day after Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson proposed giving the Federal Reserve more power by expanding its oversight to financial services beyond banks. The new system would allow the Fed to collect information from commercial and investment banks, insurance companies, as well as private equity and hedge funds allowing the central bank to go anywhere it needs to preserve financial stability.

Also contributed to the overall optimism was a sharp drop in energy prices. U.S. light, crude oil for May delivery slumped $4.04 to settle at $101.58 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, adding to a drop of almost $2 a barrel last Friday.

Chart 1.1 – Light sweet crude oil index (daily).

Monday massive downside breakdown had confirmed the validity of the bearish lower high pattern. Right now the most obvious level to watch is double support at the area of March low and the 50-day moving average, about 98.90. At the moment, it's impossible to know or sure whether this level holds or not though a sustain decline below it will trigger all sorts of stops, so to speak, and hence has the potential to push prices back into the area of the 200-day moving average, about 86. Short-term resistance is about 108.

Falling oil prices had helped to put a bid in stocks Monday. The S&P 500 gained about 7 points or 0.57% to finish at 1322.

Chart 1.2 – S&P 500 index (daily).

Monday winning had helped to end the three days losing streak. It seemed to us that the index might have found support around the 1312 area. This is a short-term positive for the bulls. In addition, the relative strength index indicator, or RSI, had also worked off the overbought condition. This should have help to set the stage for another push higher. Right now, the most obvious level to watch is last Friday's high at 1335. This, if hurdle and sustained, will trigger an upside follow-through to last week's high at 1360, and then 1388-1395 thereafter. Short-term support is at the area of last Friday's low at Friday 1312.

In summary: the market appears to be setting up for another push higher in the days ahead.

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It's now available at a monthly rate.

市場有望再次攀升

這是Capital Essence 2008年4月1日(週二)的市場技術分析。

在殘酷的第一季度最後一天，華爾街收高。道瓊斯工業平均指數上漲了46點，報收12262點，漲幅為0.38%。與往常一樣，隨投資者買進贏家並拋棄輸家，週一也表現出一定的波動性。金融與住房開發商昨天表現突出，財政部部長保爾森提議讓美聯儲擁有更大的權力能夠監管除銀行以外的金融服務。新的體制將使美聯儲能夠從商務與投資銀行、保險公司以及私有股權與對沖基金處收集信息並使這家央行可以採取任何措施來維護金融市場的穩定。

能源價格的大幅下跌也給市場帶來了樂觀情緒。紐約商業交易所五月份交割的美國輕質原油期貨下跌了4.04美元，報收每桶101.58美元。該合約上週五便下跌了近2美元。

圖1.1 輕質低硫原油期貨指數 (日線圖)

油價週一的大幅下跌證實了高點下降利空模式的有效性。當前最明顯的關鍵位置是在三個月低點形成的雙支撐以及98.90美元的50日移動均線。當前還無法斷定這一水平能否守住，但持續的下跌將觸發各種止損性賣盤，並導致油價跌回86美元附近的200天移動均線。短期阻力位是108美元。

週一油價的下跌給股市帶來了一線生機。標準普爾500指數上漲了7點，收盤1322點，漲幅為0.57%。

圖1.2 標準普爾500指數 (日線圖)

週一的上漲結束了連續三個單日下跌的趨勢。看起來該指數似乎已經在1312點附近找到支撐。這在短期內有利於多頭。此外，相對強弱指數，即 RSI的超買狀況已經得到緩解。這將有利於該指數繼續沖高。當前最值得觀察的是上週五的1335點的高點。如果這一阻力被克服，觸發的後續買盤將使該指數上探上周的1360點的高點，然後是1388至1395點。短期支撐位是上週五的低點1312點。

總結：市場看起來已經準備好在未來幾個交易日再次攀升。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。

Range-bound environment

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Monday March 31, 2008.

As expected, stocks opened on a positive note Friday with the Dow Jones industrials jumped as much as 80 points on a better-than-expected snapshot of consumer inflation, though the rally ran out of steam when the market dip into red dye after J.C. Penney (JCP) cut its first-quarter earnings guidance. The stock fell 7.5% to $37.48.

Despite the overall weakness, shares of Cal-Maine Foods Inc (CALM) soared 7.50% Friday on heavy volume. The stock is trading near its all-time high.

Chart 1.1 - Cal-Maine Foods Inc (daily).

Initially profiled in January 14 "Swing Trader Bulletin", CALM has gained more than 60% and remains well positioned. Last Friday massive upside reversal on increasing volume is indicative a retest of key resistance around the $40 level. This, if hurdle and sustained, will trigger an acceleration run to $50. In short, the near-term outlook remains bullish barring a close below key support at the area of previous bullish breakout point, about $31.50.

Retail stocks got hit the hardest in Friday decline amid weaknesses in J.C. Penney with the S&P Retail index lost 2.67% as a result.

Chart 1.2 – S&P Retail index (daily).

Like the rest of the market, overall technical outlook for retail stocks remains bearish for two reasons: first of all, price still traded below the falling trend-line resistance going back to last October. Secondly, the late week's downside follow-through after Monday's failure test of key resistance around the 410 level had raised the odd for a retest of key support the area of March low, about 360.

Although while seems vulnerable for further weakness, the bullish divergence on the MACD indicator at March low is indicative that this support will hold. With all that said, rather than looking at the January and March lows as a double bottom, it'd make sense to consider them as the bottom of a new, wider trading range of 360 and 410.

Bad news surrounding the financial stocks - Oppenheimer & Co. analyst Meredith Whitney said that many banks will likely cut their dividends after reporting first-quarter earnings and stock prices aren't yet fully reflecting the impact of the credit crunch and that bank stocks could lose another 25% - dragged on the board market with the S&P 500 lost about 11 points or 0.9% to finish at 1315.

Chart 1.3 – S&P 500 index (daily).

The market sold off for three straight days and given up most last week's expiration induced gains. As a matter of fact, the action had confirmed the validity of the "consolidation" scenario that we've traced out right here a couple days ago when we wrote that: "the main event here is the upward push against key resistance at the area of the 50-day moving average. Not only that this is a tough resistant to overcome, the trading volumes …are at the lowest level since late February. And this is the exact opposite of what the bulls want to see. With that said, there is a pretty good chance that we'll be getting some consolidation before a meaningful rally unfolds."

Despite the ongoing credit markets turmoil – additional financial-write-down and broker-insolvency rumors, the market managed to close above the 20-day moving average. This is a short-term plus for the bulls. Not only that this is a good support, the short-interest on the New York Stock Exchange and NASDAQ hit record levels in mid-March. At some point, hopefully very soon, short-sellers will start to take their profits and this will set off a chain reaction of buying.

Right now, the most obvious level to watch is Friday low at 1312. This, if exceed and sustain, will trigger a downside follow-through to 1295 and then 1256 thereafter. Short-term resistance is at the area of last week's high, about 1360.

In summary: the market was doing a pretty good job last week on the face of credit market crisis. However, a lack of upside follow-through and a declining volume during rally are indicative that until the market found the needed catalyst to move higher, we are likely to be in a range-bound environment. Hopefully the release of the ever important jobs report on Friday will do the trick.

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

市場將延續盤整格局

這是Capital Essence對2008年3月31日(週一)的市場技術分析。

如我們預期，美股週五高開，受消費者通貨膨脹率好於預期推動，道瓊斯工業平均指數一度上漲80點，但好景不長，在J.C. Penney (JCP)調降第一財季每股收益預期後，道指止漲轉跌。J.C. Penney下跌了7.5%，報收37.48美元。

儘管股市總體疲軟，但Cal-Maine Foods Inc (CALM)週五大漲7.5%，成交也放出天量。該股已逼近歷史高點。

圖1.1 Cal-Maine Foods Inc (日線圖)

我們最早在1月14日"Swing Trader Bulletin"中介紹過該股，自那以來，該股已經上漲了60%以上，當前走勢也十分穩固。上週五放量大漲意味著該股可能將上探40美元重要阻力位。如果這一位置被突破並站穩，那麼其股價將加速上漲至50美元。

簡單地說，該股近期將保持強勢，除非該股跌破31.50美元左右的突破點。

圖1.2 標準普爾零售指數 (日線圖)

與其它市場一樣，零售板塊的技術面也存在兩大利空因素：首先，股價仍位於自去年10月以來下降趨勢線的下方。其次，該指數在上週一未能有效突破410左右的重要阻力位後出現大幅下滑，這將增強了該指數將重新下探三月份低點，即360點重要支撐位的可能性。

雖然看起來繼續下跌的可能性很大，但三月份低點MACD指標的分歧說明這一支撐位將不會失守。我們可以不將一月份與三月份的低點看作是雙底，可讓他們看作是一個新的360至410更廣波動範圍的底部。

金融股有利空消息。Oppenheimer & Co.分析師Meredith Whitney表示，許多銀行很可能在報告第一財季業績後降低每股分紅金額。銀行股的股價也沒有充分反映出信貸危機的影響，銀行股可能還會再跌25%。這一消息給總體市場帶來了衝擊，標準普爾上週五下跌了11點左右，報收1315點，跌幅為0.9%。

圖1.3 標準普爾500指數 (日線圖)

市場已經連續三個交易日大跌，前一周因期權到期引發的漲幅基本上已經跌光。實際上，這一行情完全符合我們幾天前的預測。我們當時寫道："市場的主線是上探位於50日均線附近的重要阻力位。這一阻力位很難突破，而且，成交量也處於二月底以來的低點。而這正是多頭最不希望看到的。因此，市場在繼續大幅上漲之前很有可能會進行調整。

儘管信貸市場危機持續、有更多的金融機構減計資產，而且市場還充斥券商流動性不足的傳言，市場仍收於20日移動平均線的上方。這從短期看有利於多頭。這裡不僅僅能夠提供好的支撐，紐約證交所與納斯達克市場空頭倉位在三月中創下新高。做空的交易者可能會在近期開始獲利回補，而這將引發一系列買進的連鎖反應。

當前最明顯的值得關注的位置是上週五的1312點的低位。如果這一低位被有效突破，將使該指數向1295，甚至1256點下跌。短期阻力位上周的1360點的高位。

總結：儘管信貸市場危機愈演愈烈，但股市在上周的表現令人相當滿意。但是，由於漲勢沒能延續，成交量亦有不足，說明市場在新的催化劑刺激下再次上漲之前，將陷入盤整格局。希望本週五發佈的至關重要的就業報告能夠成為推動市場上漲的動力。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

The stage had been set for a technical rebound

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Friday March 27, 2008.

As we've offered right here in the previous Market Outlook: "it seems to us that the market is entering a consolidation period, which might last about 2-7 trading sessions" – stocks tanked Thursday, as investors showed concern about downgrades of several financial institutions, and disappointing news from Oracle and Google.

Financial stocks had a volatile day of trading - the sector up as much as 0.9% in early trading though ended the day at its lows with a loss of 2.0%. The sector was a laggard for most of the session due a number of earnings estimate cuts. A Lehman Brothers analyst cut estimates on Citibank (C), Bank of America (BAC), UBS (UBS) and other large-cap banks. An Oppenheimer & Co. and a Punk, Ziegel & Co. analyst also reduced estimates for Merrill Lynch & Co (MER).

Chart 1.1 – KBW Bank index (daily).

The sector dropped about 6% immediately followed our bearish comment – "the overall technical outlook remains bearish…we wouldn't be surprised to see some sorts of weaknesses in the days ahead."

Technically, the long-term conditions have not changed since our last update on the sector [a couple of days ago]. It still sports the same bearish character: a declining trend. And this should keep the bulls on defensive for now.

While the medium-term outlook seems vulnerable for further weaknesses, the leading bullish divergence on the MACD indicator is suggesting that the sector could be due for a short-term technical rebound. Also notice that although the MACD is above its signal line, the indicator still trades below the zero line, and hence confirmed the validity of the above long-term bearish outlook.

In short, there is a pretty good chance for a retest of Monday's bearish reversal point, about 86, in the days ahead. An advance above 83.10 will confirm this. Key resistant is about 90. As mentioned, until we see a sustain advance above this level, there is no high-confidence signal that an important bottom has been made - yet. Immediate support is about 80.

Disappointment over Oracle (ORCL) earning report and Lehman Brothers cut its price target to $580 on shares of Google Inc (GOOG) – citing weak "pay per click" number - weighed on the tech sector with the NASDAQ Composite Index lost about 43 points or 1.87% for the day.

Chart 1.2 – NASDAQ Composite Index (daily).

Thursday decline had push price back to the area of immediate support at the 20-day moving average. In addition, while the MACD indicator is still below 0 and suggesting the bearish trend, the indicator is trending above its signal line, and hence flashing a short-term bullish signal. With that said, there is a pretty good chance for a short-term technical rebound that could have the potential to push prices into the area of key resistance, about 2380. Immediate support is about 2200.

Bad news surrounding the financial and tech stocks dragged on the board market with the S&P 500 lost about 12 points or 0.88% to finish at 1341.

Chart 1.3 – S&P 500 index (daily).

Similar to the NASDAQ, the S&P also pulled back to the area of immediate support at the 20-day moving average. Trading volume remained modest during the decline. This is a good sign, which suggested that an urgency to sell is diminishing, at least for now. With all that said, there is a pretty good chance that we'll see a short-term technical rebound that could have the potential to push prices into the area of key resistance, about 1400. Immediate support is about 1270.

In summary: it seems to us that the stage had been set for a technical rebound that has the potential to fuel a run into the S&P 1400.

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

短期技術反彈在即

這是Capital Essence對2008年3月28日(週五)的市場技術分析。

我們在昨天的市場前瞻中寫道："在我們看來，市場已經進入了一個盤整階段，有可能會持續2到7個交易日。"昨天，受幾家金融機構評級調降以及來自甲骨文和谷歌的利空消息打壓，美股繼續下挫。

昨天金融股震盪劇烈，盤中一度上漲0.9%，但是收盤跌入低谷，重跌2.0%。受一系列盈利預期調降消息打壓，整個交易日大部分時間金融股都落後於大盤。一位雷曼兄弟分析師調低了對花旗銀行(C)、美國銀行(BAC)、瑞銀(UBS)和其他一些大型銀行的盈利預期，而一位Oppenheimer & Co.分析師和Punk Ziegel & Co.分析師同時對美林(MER)的預期作出了調降。

圖1.1 KBW銀行指數(日線圖)

從我們上次對銀行板塊作出看跌評論之後，指數已經下跌6%。我們當時提到："整體技術面依然看跌……未來數日出現一定的下跌是不足為奇的。"

在技術方面，從我們數天前對銀行板塊作出分析至今，長期局勢並未有所改觀，依然處在下跌趨勢之中。這樣多頭可能會進入防守態勢。

儘管中期形勢依然很容易進一步走軟，但是從MACD指標出現看漲背離來看，銀行板塊短期內可能會出現一波技術反彈。我們從圖上還可以看到，儘管MACD指標線已經抬升至信號線上方，但是依然低於零線位置，這也進一步證明指數長期趨勢是看跌的。

總而言之，指數在未來數天很有可能重新測試週一的向下反轉位，大約86點。如果接下來指數站上83.10點，將對此作出確認。關鍵支撐位大約在 90點。正如我們曾提到的，在指數堅定站上這一位置之前，我們尚不能十分肯定一個重要底部已經形成。最近的支撐位大約在80點。

昨天科技股充當了領跌主力，納斯達克綜合指數下跌近43點，跌幅1.87%。科技板塊的利空消息一是甲骨文(ORCL)令人失望的財報，二是雷曼兄弟將谷歌(GOOG)目標股價調降至580美元，原因則是谷歌2月份廣告點擊率的下降。

圖1.2 納斯達克綜合指數(日線圖)

昨天的下跌將納指拉回至20日均線的最近支撐區域。另外從MACD指標來看，指標依然低於零線說明跌勢仍然沒有改變，指標高於信號線則是一個短期看漲信號。因此，未來數天指數很有可能出現一波短期技術反彈，將價格拉升至2380點附近的關鍵阻力位。最近的支撐位大約在2200點。

金融股和科技股的負面消息也拖累了大盤，標普500指數下跌12點左右，收於1341點，跌幅0.88%。

圖1.3 標普500指數(日線圖)

同納指類似，標普同樣已經回撤至20日均線附近的支撐區域。昨天的下跌量能依然不是很足，這是一個好現象，說明至少目前拋盤的壓力在逐漸減小。由此來看，短期內標普很有可能出現一波技術反彈，從而將價格推向1400點附近的關鍵阻力位區域。最近的支撐位大約在1270點。

總結：在我們看來，大盤似乎已經準備好走出一波技術反彈行情，其動能有可能持續到標普1400點的位置。