Trade to Win: how to make 100% a day?

We've offered in the previous "Market Outlook" that:

"there is a pretty good chance that the market is going to open up tomorrow and its true character will likely tested during that opening and we suspect that it might be met with selling interest" – see "Higher prices will be greeted by sellers" January 25, 2008.

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As predicted, the Qs [NASDAQ 100 ETF – QQQQ] closed significantly lower after the strong opening was met with an aggressive wave of selling interest. Any put options traded could have made +100% intraday.

Despite which was another nasty day on the Street, the "Swing Trader Bulletin" continues to beat the market with its latest buy [long] setups. So, we guess this is a good opportunity to review some of these signals.

Excel Maritime (EXM) set up on January 17, 2008. The stock achieved the first target of $32 in just 1 day. That was more 14% gains in 24 hours. The stock is doing fine and working toward our second target.

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Cal-Maine Foods Inc (CALM) profiled on January 14, 2008 & triggered on January 18, 2007. The stock achieved the first target [a +8.46% gains] in just a couple of days. Similar to EXM, CALM is doing well and is on its way to the second target.

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Memc Electronic Material (WFR) set up at the beginning of the week, on January 22, 2008. The stock is held extremely strong, gained more than 10 points and had exceeded the first target in just a matter of days. As a matter of fact, you could have bought home a nice 20% gain this weekend (if you've sold into the morning gap).

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And finally a nice short - this is all about timing.

Molex Inc (MOLX) set up on December 22, 2007. The dog trend nicely and hit our second down side target of $21 on Wednesday, January 23. We've covered the position for more than +23% gains right before it turned around.

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You see, picking the right stock at the right time is the key to success. And if you like these trading ideas, why not give it a try?

 

Good luck and good trading.

Note: at Capital Essence, we target sudden profits, typically stocks that we can swing in and out for a quick 10-50% and 100-500% for options.

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空頭可能逢高出貨

Editor's note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence's CEM News on January 24, 2008. It's being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

 

這是Capital Essence對2008年1月25日(週五)的市場技術分析。

同我們預料中一致，受白宮減稅方案推動，投資者繼續將大盤拉高。昨天道瓊斯工業平均指數上漲0.9%，標普500指數漲幅1%。值得注意的是，昨天 金融股繼續領漲大盤。這讓我們相信當前的反彈主要一波空頭回補行情，別忘了，華爾街是完全看空金融板塊的。這有點令人失望，因為大盤的持續上揚需要市場存 在真正的做多興趣。因此，如果這個月底之前多頭繼續保持觀望的話，空頭很有可能大規模返場。

圖1.1 KBW銀行指數(日線圖)

銀行指數在週三飆升8.02%之後，昨天再度大漲1.86%，兩天漲幅接近10%。目前銀行指數已經逼近90點附近的關鍵阻力位。當前我們無法預知指數能否突破這一阻力，不過我們認為它很有可能在這一位置迎來一波強力賣盤。支撐位在周二低點，大約74.80點。

圖1.2 道瓊斯工業平均指數(日線圖)

道指週四繼續攀高，證實了我們對股指短期看漲的預測。同時我們依然認為股指將很快測試前期向下突破位的關鍵阻力，大約在12700點。支撐位大約在11630點。

圖1.3 標普500指數(日線圖)

當前走勢還不錯，週四標普繼續走高，確認了對2007年最低收盤這一關鍵點位的測試，大約在1374點。支撐位大約在1270點。

總結：不用說，過去幾個交易日大盤的走勢振奮人心。不過我們不要忘了，從整體趨勢來看，大盤依然處在長期跌勢 中。完全修復已經造成的破壞需要很長時間。在大趨勢沒有改變的情況下，反彈應該被當成出貨的機會。因此，我們認為今天大盤很可能高開，但是市場的真實反應 會在開盤後慢慢顯現，我們懷疑會有大量賣盤出現，至少在剛開始的時候。

 

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

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注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。

 

Higher prices will be greeted by sellers

Editor's note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence's CEM News on January 24, 2008. It's being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

 

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Friday January 25, 2008.

As predicted, the stocks extended the winning strike as investors' cheers the White House's stimulus plan. For the day, the Dow Jones industrial added 0.9%. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index gained 1%. It worth noticing that financials continued to provide leadership in Thursday rally. The action led us to believe that the rally was predominantly by short covering – remember, the Street was net short financials. This is not very encouraging because a sustain rally needs REAL buying interest. There is a pretty good chance that the bears will return in force if buyers fail to show up before the calendar turns to February.

Chart 1.1: KBW Bank Index (daily).

The bank index added another 1.86% on top of Wednesday's monster gain of 8.02%. That's about 10% in just 2 days. It's heading toward the area of key resistant, around the 90 level. At this moment, it's unknown whether this level holds or not though we think there's a pretty good chance that it'll meet with an aggressive wave of selling interest. Support is at Tuesday's low, about 74.80.

Chart 1.2: Dow Jones Industrial Average (daily).

The blue-chip index followed through to the upside Thursday and hence, confirmed our short-term bullish outlook on the index. Again, we're believed that a test of key resistant around the area of previous bearish breakdown point, about 12700, is on the card. Support is about 11630.

Chart 1.3: Standard & Poors 500 Index (daily).

So far so good, the board market index followed through to the upside and hence confirmed the test of key price level around the area of 2007's closing low, about 1374. Support is about 1270.

In summary: needless to say, trading action was pretty encouraging in the past couple of days. However, do not forget that the big picture is still bearish with the long-term trend pointing down. It'll take a lot of time to repair the damages done. And until these changes, rallies should be taken as selling opportunities. With that said we believe that there is a pretty good chance that the market is going to open up tomorrow and its true character will likely tested during that opening and we suspect that it might be met with selling interest, at least initially.

 

Until next time, good luck.

(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

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Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It's now available at a monthly rate.