Capital Essence Blog - 錢途集團: Jan 23, 2008

Wednesday, January 23, 2008

築底過程剛剛開始

Editor's note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence's CEM News on January 22, 2008. It's being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2008年1月23日(週三)的市場技術分析。

由於全球股市出現恐慌性拋售(香港恆生指數兩個交易日暴跌13.7%)，週二美股大幅低開。在盤前的交易中，道瓊斯工業平均指數跌幅超過500 點。但是聯儲降息公告的發佈迅速提升了市場信心。週二盤前，聯儲出人意料地大幅降息75個基點至3.5%，這一救市舉措幫助股市收復了大部分開盤跌幅。

總的來說，昨天美股的表現儘管沒有看上去那麼糟糕，但也是非常負面的。昨天的走勢是否意味著底部形成呢？我們來看一些直觀的圖形。

圖1.1 芝加哥期權交易所(CBOE)波動率指數(VIX)(日線圖)

波動率指數開盤大幅超過2002年最高點、37.50點，然後迅速回跌，不過依然處在較高位置。這意味著市場出現嚴重恐慌，從而預示市場底部的形成。

圖1.2 道瓊斯工業平均指數(日線圖)

在開盤前，道指期貨一度狂瀉600點，但是聯儲的降息緩和了市場的悲觀情緒。道指成功收復早盤的大部分跌幅，最後收於當日振幅高位。值得注意的是，昨天空頭終於完成了過去數年來未能成功的事業——攻破前一年最低收盤點位(2007年最低收盤是12050.41點)。這很明顯意味著長期趨勢的逆轉。今天我們需要密切關注昨天的低點、11630點，如果股指跌破這一位置將觸發大量止損，從而導致恐慌性拋盤。

圖1.3 標普500指數(日線圖)

同道指類似，標普開盤出現恐慌性局面，但是持續時間不長，砸盤很快讓位於強勢反彈。股指在開盤後一個小時內收復了開盤大部分跌幅，然後一直窄幅橫向運行直到收盤。這一走勢令人樂觀，至少在短期內，因為它說明投資者沒有很強的反彈出貨意圖。支撐位在昨天低點，大約在1274點。

總結：週二大盤的走勢意味著短期底部可能已經形成，不過反彈能夠持續多久還有待觀察，我們估計很有可能持續數個交易日。同時我們依然強調，這絕對不是這一波跌勢最後的底部，可能只是築底過程的開始，而非跌勢的終結。簡而言之，最糟糕的還未到來，但短期抄底Đ 31;會已經出現。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。

The End of the Beginning

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Wednesday January 23, 2008.

Equity market opened in a lower mode Tuesday in response to an outright panic selloff in overseas markets that saw the Hong Kong Hang-Seng Index dropped 13.7% in the past two sessions. Prior to the open, the Dow Jones Industrial Average were signaling a loss of more than 500 points. The bearish sentiment was, however, cut down immediately after the FED's announcement. In a surprise move, the Fed decided to cut the Fed Funds target interest rates by 75 basic points to 3.5%. The move has helped stocks to recoup most of the early losses.

Overall, it was an outright negative day on the Street though not as negative as it might seem at a glance. If so, does today's action mean we are at a bottom? And for this question, we've a couple of simple charts to follow.

Chart 1.1: CBOE Market Volatility Index (daily).

The CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, opened well above the 37.50 level – its highest level since 2002 – and then quickly fell back, though still at elevated level. This indicated an outright panic, which often associated with market bottom.

Chart 1.2: Dow Jones Industrial Average (daily).

At one point prior to the opening bell, futures contracts were signaling that the Dow would fall 600 points for Tuesday session. However, the FED's announcement cut down that bearish sentiment. The blue-chip index managed to recover most of the early losses and closed around its best level of the day. It worth notice that, the bears had finally achieved something that they weren't able to do in the past couple of years – pushing the index below the previous year's lowest closing level (the lowest close in 2007 was 12050.41). This is a clear indication of a change in the underlying trend. Keep an eye on today's low, about 11630, for a breakdown below this level will trigger all sorts of stops and hence create an outright panic.

Chart 1.3: Standard & Poors 500 Index (daily).

Similar to the Dow, the board market index opened in the same panic mode, but it didn't last long. The selling climax soon gave way to a pretty good bounce. The index recouped most of the early losses within an hour after the opening bell and moved sideways into the close. The action is pretty encouraging, at least in a short-term, because it implied that the "sell the rally" mentality had been broken. Support is at today's low, about 1274.

In summary: Tuesday's trading action suggested that the market might have hit the short-term bottom. Whether the bounce has further to go is remained to be seen. Though we think there's a pretty good chance that it'll last for a couple of days. As always, we must stress that this is not the final bottom of this bear leg. It's merely a beginning of the bottoming process rather than the end of the bear market. In short, the worst may not be over but a tradable low is upon us.

Until next time, good luck.

(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It's now available at a monthly rate.

可能出現快速反彈

Editor's note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence's CEM News on January 21, 2008. It's being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2008年1月22日(週二)的市場技術分析。

上周，在衰退憂慮和金融市場重大利空的打壓下，美股繼續萎靡不振，各大股指大幅走低。整個一周標普500下跌76點，跌幅5.4%，已經從去年 10月峰值縮水15%。納斯達克綜合指數下跌100點至2340點，跌幅4.1%，低於去年10月高點18%。道瓊斯工業平均指數下跌507點，跌幅 4%，收於12099點。道指在過去4周已經下跌了約10%，低於去年10月峰值15%。這是道指有史以來最差的一年開端。

在大盤連續下跌4周後，很多人都在擔心跌勢還將持續多久。為了弄明白這個問題，我們先來看一些直觀的圖形：

圖1.1 芝加哥期權交易所(CBOE)波動率指數(VIX)(周線圖)

從上周芝加哥期權交易所波動率指數的走勢來看，投資者對股市的憂慮情緒進一步攀升。上週四道指跳水300多點的時候，波動率指數暴漲16%。儘管上週五出現大約4%的回落，說明緊張氣氛有所緩和，從技術上講，波動率指數大幅走高說明市場存在恐慌情緒，通常意味著短期抄底機會的出現。如果本周該指數出現回調，將確認短期底部的形成。

圖1.2 標普500指數(周線圖)

從中期來看，標普已經處於嚴重超賣狀態。從圖上我們可以看到，通常作為超買或超賣指示器的相對強弱指標(RSI)已經跌至了2002年以來的最低點。總的來說，投資者可以利用這一信號捕捉一波跌市中的反彈。長期支撐位大約在2006年最低收盤附近，約1223.69點。短期阻力位大約在 1374～1400之間的區域。

圖1.3 道瓊斯工業平均指數(周線圖)

道指目前正在測試2007年最低收盤位的關鍵價格支撐，大約在12050.41點。目前我們還無法確定這一位置能否最後守住。儘管相對強弱指標已經跌至2002年來最低，但出現逆勢反彈的機會還是很大的。正如我們提到的，如果指數收盤跌破2007年最低收盤點位，長期牛市將轉為熊市。短期支撐位大約在12600點。

圖1.4 納斯達克綜合指數(周線圖)

同道指類似，經過上周的下跌之後，納指已經回調至2007年最低收盤的關鍵價格支撐，大約2340.68點。同上面提到的一樣，納指能否守住這一位置至關重要。從相對強弱指標來看，過去幾年在目前位置屢屢出現大幅反彈，我們預計這次也會出現一波迅速反彈。阻力位大約在2500點。

總結：股市就像皮筋一樣，如果跌離"公平"價值太遠，通常會出現反彈。因此，在目前很多股票已經跌出估值吸引力的情況下，大盤可能會迎來一波買盤。不過至少就目前而言，大盤的上升空間非常有限，幾個月來下跌對股市造成的嚴重破壞並非短時間能夠修復。同時我們繼續強調，如果大盤未能成功出現反彈，將意味著市場缺乏做多動力，大盤還將進一步下探。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

Snap back rally

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Tuesday January 22, 2008.

It was another exhausting week of trading as the major indices moved significantly lower driven by recession concerns and the troubled financial crisis. For the week, the S&P 500 down 76, or 5.4%, to 1325, and is 15% below its October peak. The NASDAQ Composite Index gave up 100, or 4.1%, to 2340, and is 18% below its October high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the week down 507 points, or 4%, at 12,099. It has dropped about 10% in the past four weeks, and is 15% below its October peak. This is the Dow's worst-ever start to a year.

With the market fell for a fourth straight week, putting it on track for the worst January ever, it's important to ask that whether this bear-market has some legs. And for this, we have a couple of simple charts to follow.

Chart 1.1: CBOE Volatility Index (weekly).

Last week, the Chicago board option exchange's Volatility index (VIX), or fear gauge, had finally reflected some sorts of anxieties that investors feel about stocks. The index surged 16% Thursday when the Dow plunged more than 300 points. Although it had dropped about 4% last Friday and hence suggested that tension had eased a bit. Technically speaking, the spike in VIX suggested some panic, which often associates with a short-term tradable bottom. A bearish reversal this week will confirm this.

Chart 1.2: Standard & Poors 500 Index (weekly).

The board market index is pretty much oversold on a medium term basis. As you can see, the Relative Strength Index, a typical overbought/oversold indicator, had dropped to the level that had not seen since 2002. General speaking, this could help to start putting in a tradable bottom for a bear-market rally. Long-term support is at the area of 2006's closing low, about 1223.69. Short-term resistant is about 1374-1400.

Chart 1.3: Dow Jones Industrial Average (weekly).

The blue-chip index is testing key price level at the area of support 2007's closing low, about 12050.41. At this moment, it's impossible to know for sure whether this level holds or not. Though with the Relative Strength Index reaches the level that had not seen since 2002, hopes for a counter trend rebound are running high. As mentioned, a walk below 2007's closing low level on closing basis will downgrade the long-term trend to bearish from bullish. Short-term resistant is about 12600.

Chart 1.4: NASDAQ Composite Index (weekly).

Similar to the Dow, the tech rich index had pulled back to key price level around 2007's closing low, about 2340.68, after last week sell off. As noted above, at this moment, it's impossible to know for sure whether this level holds or not. Though with the RSI reached the level that precedes a meaningful rebound in a past couple of years, a snap back rally could be in the card. Resistant is about 2500.

In summary: like a rubber band, stocks tend to snap back to the mean if they've dropped too far from the "fair" value. With that said, if lower stock prices create some values for investors, then, given everything being equal, the market should be able to find some buyers. However, the upside potential seems to be limited, at least for the time being, for it might take quite a bit of time to repair the significant damage that had been done over the past couple of months before we can start to think about getting back to last year's highs. As always we must stress that a failure to bounce after last week steep decline indicates that real demand did not return and we could, therefore, argue that this bear market is going to have some legs.

Until next time, good luck.

(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)