Wednesday, January 16, 2008

空頭繼續佔據主導

Editor's note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence's CEM News on January 15, 2008. It's being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.
 
這是Capital Essence對2008年1月16日(週三)的市場技術分析。
昨天在投資者的衰退恐懼中股市大幅下挫。道瓊斯工業平均指數下跌277點，是今年最大的單日跌幅。標普500下跌2.5%。納綜指下跌 2.5%，創出10個月來最低點。儘管大盤非常疲軟，但航空股卻逆市上揚。就在我們對航空板塊作出看漲評論以 後，昨天全美證交所航空股指數(Amex Airline Index)緊接著上漲3.23%。三角洲航空公司(Delta Air Lines) (DAL)將與西北航空(Northwest Airlines)(NWA)和聯合航空(UAL)(UAUA)開始合併談判，並快速達成協議，該利好消息引發了投資者對航空板塊的樂觀情緒。
airlines_20080115
圖1.1 航空股指數(日線圖)
同我們預測中一致，航空股指數繼續朝12月的向下突破位(約36點)進發。我們相信，航空板塊相對於大盤的強勢將持續下去。支撐位在27.68點左右。
sp500_20080115
圖1.2 標普500指數(日線圖)
"鑽石"形態通常意味著對前期趨勢的延續，昨天標普斷然出現下跌。從技術上講，這一價格走勢增加了重新測試1360～1370之間區域的可能性。就 目前而言，我們尚無法判斷是否會走到這一步。但是，如果標普收盤持續跌破這一區域，將意味著美國股市自2002年以來的大牛市有可能轉為熊市。短期阻力位 在1430點附近。
dow_20080115
圖1.3 道瓊斯工業平均指數(日線圖)
昨天道指果斷跌破2007年8月低點形成的關鍵支撐。這對後市極為不利。目前最應該關注的點位是2007年春季的最低點，大約在12000點。短期阻力位大約在12930點。
總結：股市在近期內前景十分黯淡。從技術層面來看，市場還有進一步下跌的要求。在這種情況下，除非有什麼大的利好消息能夠扭轉所有投資者的消極情緒，空頭將繼續佔據主導地位。
 
(本文作者：Michelle Mai)
注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。
 
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The bears remain largely in charge

Editor's note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence's CEM News on January 15, 2008. It's being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.
 
Good Morning. This is Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Wednesday January 16, 2008.
Stocks stumble out of gate Tuesday amid recession fears. For the day, the Dow Jones industrial average lost 277 points, its biggest one-day point loss of the year. The broader market index, S&P 500, lost 2.5%. The NASDAQ Composite lost 2.5% to a 10-month low. Despite the overall weakness, the Amex Airline Index added on previous gain, up 3.23% immediately after our bullish comment on the group. Contributed to the overall optimism was the news that Delta Air Lines (DAL) is looking for a swift merger with Northwest Airlines (NWA) and/or UAL (UAUA).
airlines_20080115
Chart 1.1: Airline Index (daily).
As expected, the Airline is headed toward the December's bearish breakdown point, about 36. We believe that the group will continue to outperform the broader market on a relative basis. Support is about 27.68.
sp500_20080115
Chart 1.2: Standard & Poors 500 Index (daily).
It turned out that the Diamond, a typical continuation pattern, resolved to the downside. Technically speaking, the action had increased the probability for a retest key price level around the 1370-1360 level. At this moment, it's unknown whether this level holds or not though a sustain decline below it on a closing basis is suggestive that the 2002 cyclical uptrend in the US equities market is over. Short-term resistant is about 1430.
dow_20080115
Chart 1.3: Dow Jones Industrial Average (daily).
The blue-chip index broke down decisively below key price support at the area of August's low. This is very bearish. Right now, the most obvious level to watch is spring 2007's low, about 12000. Short-term resistant is about 12930.
In summary: the near term outlook in equities market is pretty miserable. Technical background suggests that stocks are looking at more declines. With that said, unless there is a headline that everyone recognizes as extremely bullish, the bears remain largely in charge.
 
Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)
Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It's now available at a monthly rate.
 
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