How to make +300% in 4 days ?

Editor's Note: below are just some trading ideas flow from our latest Headlines.

"Market Outlook":

"equity traded like it can't find any solid footing, so the path with least resistance, at the present time, is to the downside." – "Commodities are still better bets than equities" January 02, 2008.

Stocks stumble out of gate Friday with the Dow dropped more than 250 points. The hardest hit was tech, as you can see from the above chart, the NASDAQ lost almost 100 points or 3.74% for the day. It was the tech rich index largest single-day decline on a point basis in 5 years. The hardcore, NASDAQ 100 index took the biggest beating, down -4.28% for the day. The decline was pretty naughty though it was no surprise to our "Cubes Speculator Bulletin" subscribers [see below].

"Cubes Speculator Bulletin":

January 01, 2008 @ 1:00 PM:

Signal: Sell on December 28, 2007. Trigger: a move below $51.43 (validated on December 31).

• Stop: around Q's $52.63.
• Target: around Q's $51; $50.20; $49.

Volatility indicates a high probability for a retest of November's low… [Expect] a test of $49.

As predicted, the Q's traded its way lower and achieved the third downside target at $49 Friday. The newly out option setup gained more than +300% in just 4 days.

"Swing Trader Bulletin":

December 12, 2007:

• Short: CROX.
• Crocs Inc (CROX) had also run into resistant around the area of moving average. Trigger: a trade BELOW $42.61. Stop: around $47. Target: $33.50; $xx.xx. Risk Rating: 4.

As you can see, Crocs Inc (CROX) traded significantly lower since our profiled in our December 12 "Swing Trader Bulletin" as a potential short candidate. The short set up gains a nice +23%.

 

Until next time, good luck!

 

Note: at Capital Essence, we target sudden profits, typically stocks that we can swing in and out for a quick 10-50% and 100-500% for options.

 

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技術前瞻：期待就業數據的公佈

Editor's note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence's CEM News on January 03, 2008. It's being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

 

這是Capital Essence對2008年1月4日(週五)的市場技術分析。

正如我們所預料的， 大宗商品延續了2007年的輝煌走勢，近期繼續走高。昨天黃金價格上漲8.80美元至868.80美元/盎司，而原油在創出有史以來當日最高價 100.09美元後出現小幅回落，下跌0.44美元至99.18美元/桶。在2008年頭兩個交易日，黃金價格上漲了3.7%，石油價格上漲了4.1%。

圖 1.1 黃金指數(日線圖)

依然同預料中一致，黃金價格自從12月末突破上方阻力以來，一路向900美元的關口發起衝擊。支撐位在50日均線附近，大約800美元。

圖 1.2 道瓊斯工業平均指數(日線圖)

道指沒有繼續前天的大幅下跌，這比較令人欣慰，不過並不能說明一定會出現反彈。目前的市場需要催化劑，而今天上午將公佈的就業報告有可能起到這一作用。阻力位在13300點附近。支撐位在11月低點附近，大約12700點。

圖1.3 標普500指數(日線圖)

標普500繼續在大約1435點的12月低點區域形成的短期支撐上方盤旋。記住，如果股指未能成功守住這一支撐，將出現重新測試11月低點的走勢，測試位大約在1406點。短期阻力位大約在1490點。

總結：大盤週四的走勢說明市場正在等待美國勞工部12月份就業數據的披露，具體發佈時間是美東時間今天上午8點半。如果就業數據不錯，有可能刺激物價的進一步上漲，儘管目前薪資壓力在不斷上升，從而可能引發市場對通脹的憂慮，讓重壓下的市場多頭面臨更大壓力。

 

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

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注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。

 

High hope on Jobs

Editor's note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence's CEM News on January 03, 2008. It's being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

 

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Friday January 04, 2008.

As predicted, commodities extended their fabulous run from 2007 as they've added to recent gains. Gold finished up $8.80 to $868.80 per ounce while crude oil finished slightly lower, down $0.44 to $99.18 per barrel, after hitting an all-time intraday high of $100.09. In the first two trading days of 2008, gold is up 3.7% and oil is up 4.1%.

Chart 1.1: Gold Index (daily).

And also expected, the yellow metal is heading toward the 900 level immediately followed the late December's bullish breakout. Support is around the area of 50-day moving average support, about 800.

Chart 1.2: Dow Jones Industrial Average (daily).

The blue-chips index did not follow through to the downside after yesterday's big sell-off. The action is "somewhat" encouraging though this, by itself, doesn't guarantee a rebound. The market needs a catalyst. Hopefully, tomorrow morning job report is the right catalyst. Resistant is about 13300. Support is at the area of November's low, about 12700.

Chart 1.3: Standard & Poors 500 Index (daily).

The board market index continues to hover around the short-term support at the area of December's low, about 1435. Bear in mind that a failure to hold above this level will set the stage for a retest of November's low, about 1406. Short-term resistant is about 1490.

In summary: Thursday's trading action suggested that the market is on hold for the December employment report from the Dept. of Labor, which is scheduled to release Friday morning at 8:30 am (EST). A decent report would support higher prices though rising wage pressure, if any, is likely to spark inflation concerns and hence giving the bulls more pressure than they've already had.

 

(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

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Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It's now available at a monthly rate.