Capital Essence Blog - 錢途集團: 04/01/2008

Wednesday, April 30, 2008

Amazing Profits From Average Stocks (Part II)

The Dow up more than 100 points prior to the FOMC announcement. What's going on?

Topping today headline was news that General Motors Corp (GM), a Dow component, reported a narrower-than-expected quarterly loss and said overseas sales helped to alleviate weakness in the U.S. market. Its shares rose more than 12%, their biggest one-day advance since May 2005. Just so that you know, initially profiled in April 07 "Swing Trader Bulletin", GM has gained about 13% and remains well positioned.

As we've noted in the previous Market Outlook, smart money continues to rotate into tech stocks. This, in fact, was exactly what the members of our "Swing Trader Bulletin" been doing in the past couple of weeks. Yes, we're always early though it's better to be early than sorry! Initially profiled on March 12, Google Inc (GOOG) gained more than 32%.

Initially profiled on March 10, Ariba Inc (ARBA) gained more than 33%.

Initially profiled on April 1, Amdocs Ltd (DOX) gains about 12% and remains well position.

Retails and medical instruments stocks are also doing very well. Initially profiled in April 15 "Swing Trader Bulletin", Big Lots Inc (BIG) has gained more than 25% and remains well positioned.

And so BDX. Initially profiled in April 21, Becton Dickinson & Co (BDX) advances for 6 straight days and remains well positioned.

These are just couples of many successful trades that our member had enjoyed recently. After all, aren't you glad you subscribed?

P.S. Take advantage of the 30 days special trial [new member only]. Join the group of elite traders and receiving these daily trading ideas, click here to subscribe.

All eyes on the FED

Editor's note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence's CEM News. It's being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Wednesday April 30, 2008.

As expected, stocks drifting sideways Tuesday as investors await the FOMC announcement on interest tomorrow. For the day, the Dow Jones industrial average fell 0.3% and the Standard & Poor's 500 index lost nearly 0.4%. Though do not let the quiet day fool you. The most significant part of the day was to see money quietly coming out of commodities and commodities related stocks like gold and energy and into tech stocks.

Chart 1.1 – World gold index (daily).

The yellow metal lost about 50 points immediately followed our bearish comment on the commodity on April 21. While seemingly vulnerable for further short-term loss, we see no convincing evidence that the long-term bull market in commodity is over. As mentioned, the most obvious level to watch is the 200-day moving average – it's a good place where bargain hunters often place their bets. In addition, the relative strength index indicator, or RSI, also suggests that commodity is pretty much oversold in a medium-term basis – a condition that precursor to a meaning rebound.

Despite the overall weakness, high beta stocks like Google Inc (GOOG), Baidu.com Inc (BIDU), Research In Motion Ltd (RIMM) and Apple Inc (AAPL) have broken out to multi-month highs in Tuesday trading session. This is a clear sign that some smart money is positioning themselves for a rotation out of commodities and into tech. The tech-heavy NASDAQ composite index gained about 1.7 points for the day.

Chart 1.2 – NASDAQ composite index (daily).

As you can see, tech stocks have been outperformed the S&P since late March. This is bullish though the bulls won't have any cases until they manage to take out resistance at the six-month falling trend-line, now at 2450. This, if hurdle and sustain, will trigger all sorts of stops, so to speak, and hence has the potential to push prices into the area of 200-day moving average, about 2530. At this juncture, only a sustain decline below immediate support around the 2360 level can wreck the current outlook.

The slide in commodities and energy prices dragged down the board market. The S&P lost 0.39% as a result.

Chart 1.3 – S&P 500 index (daily).

The index continues basing sideway just beneath resistance. As mentioned, while a majority of short-term indicators favor a break to the upside, the bears still have the benefit of the doubts until we see a sustain breakout above key resistance at the area of November's low, about 1406. Although, fake-out – a break above 1406 and back below it – is not uncommon in FED days. That being said, chances are we'll see a few false moves in both directions in a next couple of days. Key support is at the area of 50-day moving average, now at 1345.

In summary: it seems to us that the market is in need of a meaningful catalyst to overcome the key resistance levels. Hopefully tomorrow FOMC announcement will do the trick.

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It's now available at a monthly rate.

所有目光投向聯儲

這是Capital Essence對2008年4月30日(週三)的市場技術分析。

恰如我們所料，昨天由於投資者等待聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)在今日公佈利率政策，大盤窄幅橫向運行。整個交易日道瓊斯工業平均指數下跌 0.3%，標普500指數下跌近0.4%。不過我們不要被表面上的風平浪靜所欺騙，昨天的行情最引人注目的一點就是，資金正悄悄地從黃金、能源等商品及相關個股撤出，流向科技股。

圖1.1 世界黃金指數(日線圖)

自從我們4月21日對黃金作出看跌評論以來，黃金指數立即下跌了大約50個點。儘管短期內金價還有可能進一步下挫，不過我們並無明確證據斷言商品的大牛市已經終結。正如我們上次提到的，我們最應該關注的位置是200日均線，很多投資者都會選擇在這個位置抄底。另外，相對強弱指標(RSI)也顯示黃金中期內嚴重超賣，預計接下來會有一波有力反彈。

儘管大盤萎靡不振，昨天谷歌(GOOG)、百度(BIDU)、Research In Motion(RIMM)和蘋果(AAPL)等高β值個股盤中卻突破至數月來新高。這是一個明顯的跡象，說明聰明錢正在商品和科技之間進行板塊輪動。昨天科技股占主導的納斯達克綜合指數上漲大約1.7個點。

圖1.2 納斯達克綜合指數(日線圖)

我們可以看到，納指從3月末以來動能比標普更為強勁。這是看漲的，不過在納指攻佔2450點附近的6個月下降趨勢線阻力之前，多頭不會有太大機會。相反，如果納指堅定突破長期趨勢線，將觸發大量止損，其激發的動能有可能將指數推向2530點附近的200日均線區域。在目前形勢下，納指只有堅定跌破 2360點附近的緊鄰支撐位，才可能逆轉目前的看漲態勢。

商品和能源價格的下跌也拖累了大盤，標普昨日下挫0.39%。

圖1.3 標普500指數(日線圖)

昨日指數繼續在水平阻力位下方盤整。正如我們提到的，儘管大量短期指標都支持指數向上突破，但是在指數堅定站上1406點附近的11月低點關鍵阻力之前，空頭依然掌握著主導權。而且，在聯儲公告發佈日，出現"假突破"也是很常見的，也就是說不排除標普突破1406點又跌回下方的可能。總而言之，在未來幾個交易日出現一些"騙線"的漲跌是不足為奇的。關鍵支撐位在50日均線，目前在1345點。

總結：在我們看來，大盤要攻破重大阻力位，需要有重大利好的推動。今天下午聯儲的公告有望成為這樣的催化劑。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。

Tuesday, April 29, 2008

Holding pattern

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Tuesday April 29, 2008.

Stocks finished lower Monday, giving up early gains sparked by Mars' $23 billion buyout of Wrigley (WWY), as investors jittered ahead of the start of the two-day Fed policy meeting. Also contributed to the overall weakness was a record high energy price - U.S. light crude oil for June delivery rose 23 cents to settle at $118.75 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after hitting a record $119.93 earlier in electronic trading. For the day, both of the Dow Jones industrial average and the broader market index, Standard & Poor's 500, lost a few points to end at 12871 and 1396 respectively. Monday's trading action had once again confirmed the validity of the "sideway consolidation" scenario that we've traced out right here in last week's Market Outlook when we wrote that: "until proven otherwise expect the S&P to drift sideway within the 1370-1400 trading range."

Speaking of the FED, the bond market believe that the FED will cut rates a quarter point and signal that the period of cutting rates is coming to a close.

Despite the overall weakness, shares of Big Lots Inc (BIG) jumped almost 4% on heavy volume after JPMorgan upgraded the closeout retailer to "Overweight" from "Neutral".

Chart 1.1 – Big Lots Inc (daily).

Initially profiled in April 15 "Swing Trader Bulletin", BIG has gained more than 20% and remains well positioned. Technically speaking, Monday's break to the upside is bullish and hence confirmed the test of key resistance around the $30 level. This, if hurdle and sustained, will trigger an acceleration run to 2007 high, about $35. In short, the near-term outlook remains bullish barring a close below key support at the area of previous bullish breakout point, about $24.

Let's take a look at the major indices:

Chart 1.2 – Dow Jones industrial average (daily).

Prices drifting sideway just beneath key resistances at the area of 200-day moving average and December 2007 low, about 13070, (see chart). Volume remains low through out last week's rally. This is indicative that professional or smart money is still sitting on the sideline. And this is bearish for the market on the long-term. That being said, the bulls will not have any cases until they manage to take out key resistances around the 13100 area. Immediate support is about 12650.

Chart 1.3 – S&P 500 index (daily).

It worth noticing that the index managed to breach the 1400 mark – an important sentiment level – during Monday's trading session though the rally eventually frizzle out and the index close the day with a slight loss. While Monday's trading action wasn't impressive, it might be the first wave of a series of rally attempts that have the potential to pop prices through key resistance at the area of November's low, about 1406, and into the 200-day moving average, about 1435 – though this is not expected tomorrow. Key support is at the area of 50-day moving average, now at 1345.

In summary: Monday's choppy and low volume trading session is indicative that despite recent strength, smart money is sitting on the sideline. So it wouldn't surprise us to see the holding pattern carries on until Wednesday's Fed decision.

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

聯儲公告前陷入觀望

這是Capital Essence對2008年4月29日(週二)的市場技術分析。

週一美股略有下挫。上午受私募股權基金Mars以230億美元收購箭牌(WWY)的消息刺激，大盤有所上揚，不過尾盤部分投資者選擇了逢高出貨，因為即將召開的聯儲會議將帶來不確定因素。另外昨天油價再創新高也是一個負面因素，紐約商品交易所6月份交割的美國輕質低硫原油價格在電子交易中一度達到 119.93美元，最後上漲23美分收於每桶118.75美元。昨天道瓊斯工業平均指數和標普500指數均下跌數點，分別收於12871點和1396 點。昨天大盤的走勢同我們在上周的市場前瞻中提出的"橫向整理"的判斷非常吻合，我們當時寫道："如果不出意外，預計標普將在1370-1400點之間的區域橫向震盪。"

關於今天的聯儲會議，從債券市場的反應來看，投資者預期聯儲將會降息25個基點，並顯示聯儲這一輪降息週期已接近尾聲。

儘管整體股市走軟，但是昨天清倉貨零售商Big Lots(BIG)股價放量大漲將近4%，原因是JP摩根將其股票評級從"中立"調升至"買入"。

圖1.1 Big Lots(日線圖)

我們最早在4月15日的Swing Trader Bulletin中對Big Lots作出了推薦，至今該股漲幅已經超過20%，而且還有上漲空間。從技術上講，週一的向上突破是一個看漲信號，確認了向30美元附近關鍵阻力作出測試的走勢。如果股價能夠堅定突破30美元的阻力位，將激發強大動能，加速向35美元左右的2007年高點進發。簡而言之，除非該股收盤跌破24美元左右的前期向上突破位的關鍵支撐，短期態勢依然看漲。

再來看看各大股指的情況：

圖1.2 道瓊斯工業平均指數(日線圖)

從圖上我們可以看到，最近道指一直在200日均線和2007年12月低點(大約13070點)兩大阻力位下方橫向運行。在上周的走高行情中，成交活躍度一直很低，這說明專業投資者和"聰明錢"觀望氣氛比較濃重。這對市場的長期走勢是一個看跌信號。由此看來，在道指成功佔領13100點附近的重大阻力位之前，市場多頭並沒有太大的機會。緊鄰支撐位大約在12650點。

圖1.3 標普500指數(日線圖)

值得注意的是，昨天標普盤中成功突破1400點的重要心理關口，可惜最終漲幅出現回落，收盤還略有下挫。昨天的行情可謂平淡無奇，我們預計接下來標普還將多次向1406點的11月低點阻力和1435點的200日均線阻力發起挑戰，當然不會在今天。關鍵支撐位在50日均線區域，目前位於1345 點。

總結：週一的地量震盪行情說明，儘管大盤近期走勢不錯，但聰明錢仍採取觀望的立場。因此在週三聯儲公告發佈之前，大盤繼續橫向運行是在情理之中的。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

Monday, April 28, 2008

Decision time for the market

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Monday April 28, 2008.

As expected, stocks opened lower Friday though the market managed to overcome early weaknesses to close above the zero line as investors set aside worries about surging energy prices and Microsoft's underwhelming forecast, and picked up a variety of "cheap" financial stocks. For the day, The Dow Jones industrial average added 0.3% to finish at 12891 - its highest close in nearly four months.

Oil reached new record high Friday amid concern that strikes at a BP P.L.C (BP) refinery in Scotland and an unrelated facility in Nigeria could jeopardize production. U.S. light crude oil for June delivery jumped $2.46 on supply concerns to settle at $118.42 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Chart 1.1 – Light sweet crude oil index (daily).

Technically speaking, Friday's break to the upside is bullish. It broke the three-day consolidation pattern and helped setting the stage for a test of an important sentiment 120 level. In short, the medium-term outlook remains bullish barring a close below last Thursday's low at 114.40.

Unsurprisingly, tech stocks were underselling pressure Friday amid weakness in shares of Microsoft (MSFT), which felt more than 6% in response to the lousy fourth quarter forecast.

Chart 1.2 – Microsoft Corp (daily).

As predicted, the stock dropped hard Friday and tested key support around the $29.50 level. While the action is bearish, the late-day upward push suggests that this level might hold for awhile. Expect an oversold consolidation in the days ahead. Critical support is about 28.50. Immediate resistance is about $31.

The financial sector was an outperformed Friday amid an upbeat earning report from American Express (AXP). In addition, shares of Merrill Lynch & Co (MER) also closed significantly higher after the Financial Times reported that Merrill is in discussions with private equity firm TPG regarding possible investments in the investment bank.

Chart 1.3 – KBW Bank index (daily).

The sector has been on better ground for the last couple of days as investors have started to bet that the worst of the credit market crisis is over. It seems poised for a test of key price level at the area of the seven-month falling trend-line resistance, now at 87. At this moment, it's impossible to know for sure whether this level can be taken out or not though a sustain breakout above it will break the "lower highs" pattern going back to October 2007. Critical support remains at 75.

Good news surrounding financial stocks had helped to send the board market higher with the S&P 500 index added 9 points or 0.65% to close at 1397.

Chart 1.4 – S&P 500 index (daily).

Friday's trading action had confirmed the validity of the "sideway consolidation" scenario that we've traced out right here in the previous Market Outlook when we wrote that: "Thursday's trading action didn't have the characteristic of a bullish breakout day – it's rather a continuation the pullback consolidation pattern that starts on Monday April 21^st. Of course, this won't last forever though until proven otherwise expect the index to drift sideway within the 1370-1400 trading range."

A milestone here was a crack the old February high at 1396. While the action is bullish, there are quite a number of tough barriers to confront. The first one isn't very far, it's the November's low, about 1406. And even it can overcome that, the 200-day moving average is going to be an even tougher level to encounter. Given the extreme overbought condition, we doubt that the market can overcome it within this rally.

Right now, the most obvious level to watch is the key price resistance at November's low, about 1406. This, if hurdle and sustain on a retest, will break the "lower highs" pattern going back to October 2007 and hence suggesting higher prices heading into the second half of the year. Key support is at the area of 50-day moving average, now at 1345.

In summary: this is decision time for the market. Despite last week's strength, technical evidence favoring both bulls and bears. Given the action in the financial complex of late, it appears that fast money is being put back to work on hopes of a turnaround. This is bullish. However, the bulls have got to pay some respects to the overhead resistance at S&P 1406. Until we see a sustain break above this level on "good" volume, the bears still have the loudest growl.

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

市場到作決定之時

這是Capital Essence對2008年4月28日(週一)的市場技術分析。

恰如我們所料，上週五美股開盤後遭遇賣壓，不過投資者成功克服能源價格飆升和微軟平庸財測帶來的憂慮情緒，下午在金融股觸底反彈行情的帶領下，大盤成功收復上午失地。整個交易日道瓊斯工業平均指數上漲0.3%，收於12891點，為近4個月來最高收盤。

上週五，由於投資者擔心英國石油公司(BP)一家蘇格蘭煉油廠的罷工事件和尼日利亞石油設施遇襲將對全球石油供應產生不利影響，油價創出新高。紐約商品交易所6月份交割的美國輕質低硫原油大漲2.46美元，收於每桶118.42美元。

圖1.1 輕質低硫原油指數(日線圖)

從技術上講，上週五的向上突破是看漲的。這一走勢突破了3日來的整理態勢，為進一步上攻、測試120美元的心理關口奠定了基礎。總而言之，除非油價收盤跌破上週四低點，114.40美元，否則中期趨勢依然看漲。

上週五，微軟(MSFT)由於第四財季業績目標令投資者大感失望，股價大跌6%以上，並給科技股帶來賣壓，拖累納值下挫。

圖1.2 微軟(日線圖)

恰如我們所料，上週五微軟股價大跌，測試29.50美元附近的關鍵支撐。整個走勢是不利的，不過尾盤的小幅回升說明這一支撐或許還能維持一下，預計未來數日有可能出現一波超賣整理行情。重大支撐位大約在28.50美元，緊鄰阻力位大約在31美元。

上週五金融板塊表現優於大盤，主要原因是美國運通(AXP)公佈的利好財報，同時美林(MER)股價也大幅飆升，因為根據《金融時報》報道，私募股權基金TPG正與美林商談，有可能向美林提供注資。

圖1.3 KBW銀行指數(日線圖)

過去幾個交易日，由於投資者普遍認為信貸危機的低潮已經過去，金融板塊大幅反彈，目前似乎已經準備好向87點的7個月下降趨勢線阻力發起測試。目前我們還無法預知這一關鍵點位能否被突破，不過一旦指數堅定站上這一阻力，將打破從2007年10月以來"高點更低"的不利形態。重大支撐位仍然在75 點。

金融股的利好消息也助推了大盤，標普500指數上漲9個點，收於1397點，漲幅0.65%。

圖1.4 標普500指數(日線圖)

上週五標普的走勢同我們在當日的市場前瞻中提出的"橫向整理"的判斷如合符節，我們當時提到："從技術上講，週四的走勢並不具備『向上突破』的特徵，反而只是4月21日開始的整理行情的延續。當然，這一局面不會永久持續下去。不過如果不出現意外的話，我們預計指數將繼續在1370-1400點的區間震盪。"

上週五行情中最關鍵的一點是攻克了1396點的2月份前期高點阻力。這是一個看漲信號，不過我們也不應過於樂觀，因為上方仍面臨重重阻礙。第一重障礙已經非常近了，那就是去年11月的低點阻力，大約1406點。就算標普能夠過這一關，接下來的200日均線阻力可能更加易守難攻。再說現在市場已經嚴重超買，我們覺得這一波反彈可能很難完成這一艱巨任務。

目前最應該關注的位置便是11月低點的阻力位，大約1406點。如果這一位置被堅定突破，將打破從2007年10月起開始形成的"高點更低"的形態，從而預示著下半年會有較好的行情。關鍵支撐位在50日均線附近，目前在1345點。

總結：現在是市場做決定的時刻。大盤經過上周的上漲之後，目前技術面多頭空頭誰也不佔優。從最近金融股的強勁反彈來看，似乎快錢正在大舉抄底，看多後市。這是一個看漲信號。但是另一方面，標普在1406點面臨重大阻力，多頭也不可能一帆風順。總而言之，除非標普放量突破這一點位，否則空頭依然佔據主導。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

Friday, April 25, 2008

Good but no firework

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Friday April 25, 2008.

Stocks closed higher across the board Thursday with the Dow Jones industrial average added around 0.7% to finish at 12848 and the broader, Standard & Poor's 500, index added 0.6% - the S&P posted a much bigger gain, reached as high as 1397 in the early afternoon – to close at 1388. As matter of fact, today trading action was very consistent to what we've offered in the previous Market Outlook: "the S&P seems poised for a test of an important psychological level, around the 1400 area. However, the wobbly readings from indicators like the short-term slow stochastic suggest that, more likely than not, this test is going to fail."

Contribute the overall optimism were a stronger dollar and upbeat earnings from Ford Motor Co (F) and Apple Inc (AAPL). Speaking of earning, shares of Microsoft Corp (MSFT) were under selling pressure, down almost 4% in Thursday evening trading, after the world's biggest software maker reported a rise in earnings that beat expectations but its outlook disappointed investors.

Chart 1.1 – Microsoft Corp (daily).

Do not let the above chart fool you, the stock down about 4% to about $30.20 in after hours trading. Technically speaking, the major resistance at November-December's low, about $32.63, had been a very important line in the sand. And despite Thursday's strength, the line remains untouched! This should tell us the strength of the stock going into this evening earning report – very weak, of course! In addition, the short-term RSI indicator is indicating that the stock is extremely overbought – a condition that's also precursor to a pullback consolidation. So, it wouldn't surprise us to see a test of immediate support at previous bullish breakout, about $29.50, in the days ahead.

It worth noticing that a stronger dollar has triggered an interesting market rotation: money is coming out of commodities and commodity related stocks and going into financials and home builders. The PHLX Housing Sector Index rose more than 3% while the Amex Gold Bugs Index dropped more than 4% as results.

Chart 1.2 – PHLX Housing Sector Index (daily).

The housing is doing very well, up about 13 points or 10% immediately followed our bullish comment on the sector on March 12. While Thursday's trading action is bullish and suggesting further short-term gain, the upside could be limited to February's high, about 157. What's going on? As you can see, we've approached this level and failed at least three times since last December – a lot of good money have been burned at this level before and there is no clear evidence that suggests it won't happen again. With that said, from a long-term perspective, the bulls will not have any cases unless prices break above the 157 level. This, if clear and sustain, will break the pattern of lower lows that goes back into early 2006 and help setting the stage for s test of 2006 low, about 190.

As noted above, the bullion took a beating Thursday amid a stronger greenback. In fact, recent trading action had confirmed the validity of the "short-term bearish" scenario that we've offered in our April 21 Market Outlook when we wrote that: "Friday's [April 18^th] break to the downside had completed the bearish lower-high pattern. In addition, the on balance volume indicator, or OBV, also traded below its 20-period moving average and hence confirmed the bearish trend…expects further short-term losses."

Chart 1.3 – Amex Gold Bugs Index (daily).

Thursday's massive sell-off had pushed prices into key support at the area of the 200-day moving average. Not only that this is a pretty strong support – it's good place where bargain hunters often place their bets – the short-term RSI indicator is also indicating an extreme oversold condition. So, it wouldn't surprise us to see a technical rebound in the days ahead. Immediate resistance is about 425.

Heavy buying interest in the financial and home builder stocks had helped to push the board market higher. The S&P up about 9 points to 1388.

Chart 1.4 – S&P 500 index (daily).

As expected, the index tested the important psychological 1400 level today. Not only that it failed to close above this level – this is also expected – Thursday's trading volume was not very encouraging; it's just about average. Technically speaking, today trading action didn't have the characteristic of a "bullish breakout" day – it's rather a continuation the pullback consolidation pattern that starts on Monday April 21^st. Of course, this won't last forever though until proven otherwise expect the index to drift sideway within the 1370-1400 trading range. As mentioned, it's critical that price stays above the 1370 level. This, if violate and sustain, will increase the odds for a retest of the 50-day moving average, about 1345 now.

In summary: while Thursday's trading action is bullish, it doesn't have the characteristic of a "bullish breakout" day. In short, it's good but no firework!

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

標普1370-1400區間震盪

這是Capital Essence對2008年4月25日(週五)的市場技術分析。

週四美股全線高收，道瓊斯工業平均指數上漲約0.7%至12848點，而覆蓋面更廣的標普500指數上揚0.6%，收於1388點。不過標普昨日盤中漲幅更大，下午剛開始時一度沖高至1397點。事實上，昨天大盤的走勢同我們在昨天的市場前瞻中所作的判斷非常吻合，我們當時寫道："標普似乎馬上要測試1400點的重要心理點位。不過從短期慢速隨機指標的走向來看，測試出現失敗的可能性要更大一些。"

導致昨天市場出現樂觀情緒的主要消息，一是美元匯率走高，二是福特汽車(F)和蘋果(AAPL)發佈樂觀財報。另外昨天微軟(MSFT)也公佈了財報，儘管盈利所有上升並超出預期，但是公司發佈的財測數字令投資者感到失望，微軟股票遭到拋售，昨日盤後交易中股價下挫近4%。

圖1.1 微軟(日線圖)

不要被上面的圖騙了，因為微軟在昨天盤後又下跌了4%，大約到30.20美元。從技術上講，32.63美元左右的11月和12月低點的重大阻力位作用非常強大。儘管股價週四有所上揚，但仍未觸到這一位置。這顯然說明微軟股價在昨日盤後財報公佈前動能便非常疲弱！另外，短期相對強弱指標(RSI) 也顯示該股已經嚴重超買，因此未來數天股價測試前期突破位的緊鄰支撐是很有可能的，大約29.50美元。

值得注意的是，昨天美元的走強導致資金的流向發生改變：資金從商品和商品相關股票中流出，流進金融股和地產股。昨天費城股票交易所房地產指數 (PHLX Housing Sector Index)上漲3%以上，而美國證交所黃金板塊指數(Amex Gold Bugs Index)跌幅超過4%。

圖1.2 費城股票交易所房地產指數(日線圖)

最近房地產表現不錯，自從我們3月12日對板塊作出看漲評論以來，指數已經上漲了約13個點，漲幅10%。週四的走勢是看漲的，意味著短期內還將進一步走高，上方空間在2月高點，大約157點。我們從圖上可以看到，房地產指數已經多次接近這一位置，從去年12月開始至少已經3次測試失敗，大量資金都在這個位置被套，而且目前尚無明顯跡象表明故事不會重演。由此看來，從長期的角度講，除非指數站上157點，多頭便沒有太多機會。相反，如果指數堅定突破這一阻力，將改變從2006年初以來"低點更低"的不利形態，有可能出現測試2006年低點(大約190點)的走勢。

前面提到了，受美元匯率走高影響，黃金遭受重挫。事實上，昨天黃金的走勢證實了我們在4月21日的市場前瞻中提出的"短期看跌"的判斷，我們當時寫道："週五(4月18日)的向下突破完成了看跌的『高點更低』的形態。另外，平衡交易量指標(On Balance Volume,OBV)同樣低於20日均線，說明還有下跌的要求……短期內將進一步下跌。"

圖1.3 美國證交所黃金板塊指數(日線圖)

週四的大跌使得價格跌破了200日均線的關鍵支撐。這是一個非常強有力的支撐，很多投資者都會選擇在這個位置抄底，而且短期相對強弱指標也顯示嚴重超賣，因此未來數天非常有可能出現一波技術反彈。緊鄰阻力位大約在425點。

金融板塊和地產板塊的走高帶動了大盤的上揚，標普上漲9個點至1388點。

圖1.4 標普500指數(日線圖)

恰如我們所料，昨天標普對1400點的心理關口作出測試，而測試出現失敗也在我們預料之中。同時昨天的成交量也不是特別高，僅略微高於均值。從技術上講，昨天的走勢並不具備"向上突破"的特徵，反而只是4月21日開始的整理行情的延續。當然，這一局面不會永久持續下去。不過如果不出現意外的話，我們預計指數將繼續在 1370-1400點的區間震盪。我們曾提到，標普堅守1370點的位置非常關鍵，一旦被堅定擊穿，將增加指數向下測試50日均線的可能性，目前大約在 1345點。

總結：週四的走勢是看漲的，但是並不具備"向上突破"行情的特徵。總而言之，形勢有利，但不值得慶祝！

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

Thursday, April 24, 2008

S&P seems poised for a test of an important psychological level

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Thursday April 24, 2008.

As expected, stocks closed slightly higher, in a choppy trading session, as investors chew on the better than expected earning report from Boeing Co (BA) and another meltdown in the financial sector. For the day, the Dow Jones industrial average rose 43 points, or 0.3%, to finish at 12763.

Financial stocks were under selling pressure Wednesday largely due to disappointment regarding a massive quarterly loss at Ambac Financial (ABK). The bond insurer plummeted 43% to a new all-time low after the company reported a massive $5.42 per share loss on $1.7 billion in write-downs and a $1.0 billion increase in loan loss provisions. The Street was looking for a much smaller loss of $1.51 per share. And the KBW bank index lost 0.86% as a result.

Chart 1.1 – KBW bank index (daily).

Price continues basing sideway around the area of critical support, about 75. The action is bearish. In addition, the short-term slow stochastic indicator is also trending down, below the signal line, and hence, confirms the strong bearish trend. Right now the most obvious level to watch is the March-April's closing low, about 75. At this moment, it's impossible to know for sure that whether this level holds or not though a sustain decline below it will trigger all sorts of stops, so to speak, hence, has the potential to push prices into the area of 2003 low, about 65.

Chart 1.2 – S&P 500 index (daily).

It seems to us that recent pullback found support at the area of last week's bullish breakout gap (see chart). This is bullish and suggesting a retest of key price resistance around the 1400 level. As mentioned, not only that this is a tough level to overcome, the short-term slow stochastic indicator is suggesting that the market is pretty much overbought. As a matter of fact, the action we've seen recently appears to be very similar to the time between the November's high and April's low when we saw a quite a number of aggressive sell-offs, which took place immediately after the market registered a series of overbought conditions over a short-period of time (see chart). With all that said, it wouldn't surprise us to see the test of 1400, if and when it comes, will be met with eager sellers. The index has an immediate support around the 1350 area.

In summary: the S&P seems poised for a test of an important psychological level, around the 1400 area. However, the wobbly readings from indicators like the short-term slow stochastic suggest that, more likely than not, this test is going to fail.

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

標普即將測試心理關口

這是Capital Essence對2008年4月24日(週四)的市場技術分析。

恰如我們所料，昨天大盤震盪運行、小幅高收，主要的利好消息是波音(BA)超預期的財報，利空消息則來自金融板塊。道瓊斯工業平均指數高收43點，收於12763點，漲幅0.3%。

昨天，主要受Ambac Financial(ABK)公佈季度巨額虧損不利消息的影響，金融股遭遇賣壓。該債券保險商昨日公佈每股虧損5.42美元，主要原因是17億美元的減記和10億美元的壞賬保證金計提，結果週三公司股價暴挫43%，跌入歷史新低。此前華爾街的預計虧損額是每股1.51美元。結果KBW銀行指數下跌 0.86%。

圖1.1 KBW銀行指數(日線圖)

銀行指數繼續在75點附近的關鍵支撐區域橫向整理，這一走勢是看跌的。同時，短期慢速隨機指標也繼續下探至信號線下方，說明下行的要求很強烈。目前最應該關注的位置是3月、4月的收盤低點，大約75點。目前我們還無法預知這一支撐能否保住，不過一旦堅定擊穿該支撐，將觸發大量止損，並有可能將價格推向2003年低點區域，大約65點。

圖1.2 標普500指數(日線圖)

從圖形上看，近期的回調走勢似乎在上周的跳空突破缺口處找到支撐，這是有利的，意味著接下來有可能重新測試1400點附近的關鍵阻力。正如我們提到的，不但這一阻力易守難攻，而且短期慢速隨機指標也顯示市場已經嚴重超買。事實上，這一走勢在過去多次重複，從去年11月高點到今年4月低點之間，每次市場指標顯示短期超買之後，馬上就會出現一波強勁拋盤。由此看來，一旦標普向上測試1400點，遭遇強力賣壓是不足為奇的。指數的緊鄰支撐位大約在 1350點附近。

總結：標普似乎馬上要測試1400點的重要心理點位。不過從短期慢速隨機指標的走向來看，測試出現失敗的可能性要更大一些。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

Wednesday, April 23, 2008

Market’s testing critical support at S&P 1360

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Wednesday April 23, 2008.

Stocks stumble out of gate Tuesday with the Dow Jones industrial average lost around 105 points, or 0.82% to finish at 12720. As a matter of fact, Tuesday's trading action had confirmed the validity of the "pullback consolidation" scenario that we've traced out right here in the previous Market Outlook when we wrote that: "it seems to us that Monday's decline is just a beginning of a modest pullback, which could lasts about 2 to 7 trading sessions."

Contributed to the overall weakness was a record high energy prices – U.S. light crude oil for May delivery hit an all-time trading high of $119.90 a barrel before pulled back a bit and settle at $119.37, up $1.89, on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The gains in crude oil prices dragged on the airlines stocks. The Amex Airline Index dropped 12.3% as a result.

Chart 1.1 – Amex Airline Index (daily).

Tuesday's decline had pushed the airline into the level that had not seen since 2002 – the last bear market bottom. While the action is bearish, the RSI's positive divergence is indicating that the sector is at or pretty close to a tradable bottom. However, until key resistance at the area of March's high, about 28, is taken out and held on a retest, we wouldn't touch the sector.

Tech stocks were also under pressure Tuesday amid a dour profit outlook from Texas Instruments Inc (TXN). The chip maker reported higher quarterly earnings that met estimates though its forecast for current-quarter profit fell short of estimates. Shares dropped almost 6%. And the Nasdaq Composite Index lost 1.29% for the day.

Chart 1.2 – Nasdaq Composite Index (daily).

The index pulled back to the area of immediate support after a test of key resistance around the 2400 level was met with an aggressive wave of selling interest (see chart). Volume also expanded as prices dropped. This is bearish. Right now the most obvious level to watch is last Friday's bullish breakout gap, about 2350. This is a very important sentiment level that needs to be held to confirm last week's rally. With that said, a failure to hold above this level will increase the odds for a larger-cycle pullback, which has the potential to push prices into the area of April low, about 2260. The index has a layer of resistance that runs from 2410 to 2480.

As noted above, oil was a major drag on the markets - the boarder market index, S&P 500, lost as much as 19 points or about 1.4% as crude oil spiked just shy of $120 mid-morning. The selling pressure was, however, eased a bit into the close as traders position themselves ahead of tomorrow's oil inventory and Apple Inc (AAPL) earning reports. For the day, the S&P lost about 12 points or 0.88%.

Chart 1.3 – S&P 500 index (daily).

The index dropped away form the psychological important 1400 level. The slow stochastic indicator also crossed below its signal line today and hence confirmed the bearish trend. Right now the most obvious level to watch is last week's bullish breakout gap, about 1360. Staying above this level is critical.

In summary: although seemingly vulnerable for further short-term loss, the bulls still have the benefits of the doubts as long as prices hold above S&P 1360.

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)