Capital Essence Blog - 錢途集團: 03/01/2008

Thursday, March 27, 2008

Market is entering a consolidation period

Editor's note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence's CEM News. It's being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Thursday March 27, 2008.

Stocks stumble out of gate Wednesday amid the spiking commodity prices, a fresh batch of weak economic news and a bearish analyst note on investment firm earnings had prompted traders to take profits after recent a nice advance that saw the S&P jumped about 7% in just a week. As a matter of fact, Wednesday's trading action was very consistent to the "consolidation" hypothesis that we've traced out right here in the previous Market Outlook when we wrote that: "the up-leg started from last Monday's low seems to have run out of steam… the market [is due for a] consolidation."

U.S. light, crude oil for May delivery jumped $4.68 to settle at $105.90 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after a weekly inventory report from the Department of Energy showed a build in stockpiles that was much smaller than expected. Speaking of energy, shares of James River Coal Company (JRCC) – profiled in our March 26 "Swing Trader Bulletin" as a potential buy candidate – jumped 6.71% on heavy volume.

Chart 1.1 – Light sweet crude oil index (daily).

Price rebound nicely after a pullback to key price support was met with an aggressive wave of buying interest. The action had confirmed the validity of the "oversold rebound" scenario that we've noted right here a couple days ago – "last week's decline had pushed prices back directly into the area of key support at the previous bullish breakout point. Not only that this is a strong support, short-term relative strength index, or RSI, indicator had also reach the oversold level and we, therefore, wouldn't be surprise to see a rebound into the 104-106 area."

Right now the most obvious level to watch is March high at 110. Key support is about 98.90.

Benefit from a weaker dollar, gold caught a bid Wednesday after the ECB has make it clear they are unlikely to lower interest rates. COMEX gold for April delivery jumped $14.20 to settle at $949.20 an ounce.

Chart 1.2 – World Gold Index (daily).

Similar to oil, gold also rebound nicely after a pullback to key price support was met with an aggressive wave of buying interest. The short-term relative strength index, or RSI, indicator also confirmed the short-term bullish outlook as it crossed above the oversold level today. And we, therefore, won't be surprise to see some short-term gains in the days ahead. The shiny metal has a layer of resistant that runs from 970 to 1029.

Aside from the higher commodities prices, bad news surrounding the financial stocks dragged on the board market with the S&P 500 lost about 12 points or 0.88% to finish at 1341.

Chart 1.3 – S&P 500 index (daily).

We've said in the previous Market Outlook that: "the main event here is the upward push against key resistance at the area of the 50-day moving average. Not only that this is a tough resistant to overcome, the trading volumes over the last two sessions are at the lowest level since late February. And this is the exact opposite of what the bulls want to see." It seems to us that the reality of the low volume bounce is now coming into play. Although, despite Wednesday decline, the index still traded above the 50-day moving average. This is bullish and raised the odds for a retest of key resistance around the 1400 level. What we don't want to see right now is a decline below Monday low at 1330. So keep a close eye on this level.

In summary: it seems to us that the market is entering a consolidation period, which might last about 2-7 trading sessions. What'll happen next is anyone guesses and we'd be a fool if we tell you anything more than this.

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It's now available at a monthly rate.

市場進入盤整階段市場進入盤整階段

這是Capital Essence對2008年3月27日(週四)的市場技術分析。

昨天股市繼續回調，主要原因除了商品價格的飆升、一系列利空經濟數據的公佈，還有分析師對投資銀行盈利預期的調降，因此部分投資者選擇了逢高出貨，標普近期漲幅可觀，短短一周的時間裡上漲約7%。事實上，股市週三的表現同我們在昨天的市場前瞻中作出的"盤整"判斷非常吻合，我們在評論中說道： "從上週一低點開始的反彈行情似乎已經動能耗盡……市場將走出一波整理行情。"

昨天，由於能源部公佈的周度原油庫存數字大大低於市場預期，紐約商品交易所5月份交割的輕質原油大漲4.68美元，收於每桶105.90美元。在能源股中，我們3月26日"Swing Trader Bulletin"作出推薦的James River Coal Co.(JRCC)股價昨天放量大漲6.71%。

圖1.1 輕質低硫原油指數(日線圖)

原油指數在回調至關鍵價格支撐時迎來強力買盤，出現強勁反彈。這一走勢確認了我們數天前在本欄作出的"超賣反彈" 判斷的有效性，我們當時提到： "上周的下跌使得價格逼近前期向上突破位形成的關鍵支撐區域。該區域的支撐力非常強大，同時短期相對強弱指標(RSI)也進入了超賣領域，因此接下來指數反彈至104-106美元的區域是不足為奇的。"目前最應該關注的位置是3月高點，110美元的價位。關鍵支撐位大約在98.90美元。

由於美元繼續走軟，加之歐洲央行明確表示沒有降息的計劃，昨天金價繼續上揚。紐約商品交易所4月份交割的黃金期貨大漲14.20美元，收於每金衡制盎司949.20美元。

圖1.2 世界黃金指數(日線圖)

同石油走勢類似，黃金同樣在回調至關鍵價格支撐附近時迎來強力買盤，大幅反彈。昨天短期相對強弱指標(RSI)從超賣領域上行，說明短期看漲態勢不變，因此未來數天黃金有可能繼續走高。金價在970-1029之間的區域有一個支撐帶。

除了商品價格的走高，昨天金融股的負面消息也對大盤產生壓力，標普500下跌約12點，收於1341點，跌幅0.88%。

圖1.3 標普500指數(日線圖)

在昨天的市場前瞻中我們提到："目前對標普而言非常關鍵的一點，是能否在50日均線阻力附近繼續走高。不但50日均線是一個非常強大的阻力位，而且過去兩個交易日的量能均處在2月底以來的最低水平，這都是市場多頭最不願意面對的情形。"在我們看來，儘管昨天繼續回調，不過指數依然位於50日均線上方，因此有可能出現一波地量反彈，並很有可能重新測試1400點附近的關鍵阻力。目前需要密切關注的位置是週一低點1330點，跌破這一位置將是非常不利的。

總結：在我們看來，市場似乎已經進入了一個整理階段，有可能持續2-7個交易日。再往後那就不好預測了，我們也不願胡亂猜測。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。

Wednesday, March 26, 2008

Expect some consolidations in the days ahead

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Wednesday March 26, 2008.

As we've noted in the previous Market Outlook: "short-term charts exhibit a very positive character that should help setting the stage for further short-term gain" - stocks took a breather Tuesday amid a batch of weak economic news, yet it managed to overcome early weaknesses and finish the day in positive territory. Contributed to the early selling pressure was Merrill Lynch's downgrade of several banking stocks, including Bank of America (BAC). Also, Merrill Lynch had its earnings forecast cut by JP Morgan Chase (JPM) and UBS (UBS). The KBW bank index finished lower, down 0.44%, as a result.

Chart 1.1 – KBW bank index (daily).

The overall technical outlook remains bearish for two reasons: first of all, price still traded below the falling trend-line resistance going back to last October. Secondly, Tuesday's downside follow-through after Monday's failure test of key resistance had increased the odds that the lower low and lower high pattern is still in play. This doesn't mean that it can't be changed. Though until we see a sustain advance above the key price level, about 90, there is no high-confidence signal that an important bottom has been made - yet.

In addition, the short-term relative strength index, or RSI, indicator had reached the overbought level, so we wouldn't be surprised to see some sorts of weaknesses in the days ahead. The index has a layer of support that runs from 82 to 73.

Bad news surrounding the financial stocks offset the board market advance – the S&P 500 tacked on just 3 points, or 0.2% for the day.

Chart 1.2 – S&P 500 index (daily).

The main event here is the upward push against key resistance at the area of the 50-day moving average. Not only that this is a tough resistant to overcome, the trading volumes over the last two sessions are at the lowest level since late February. And this is the exact opposite of what the bulls want to see. With that said, there is a pretty good chance that we'll be getting some consolidation before a meaningful rally is in play.

In summary: while the up-leg started from last Monday's low seems to have run out of steam, the short-term trend remains up and the charts are still building on encouraging formations. Though there just isn't enough bullish power to fuel a significant push upward from here. With all that said, the market needs some sorts of positive catalysts and a good consolidation to build up the needed energy.

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

盤整將繼續

這是Capital Essence對2008年3月26日(週三)的市場技術分析。

在昨天的市場前瞻中我們提到："短期圖形非常有利，市場短期內還將進一步走高。"昨天受一些負面經濟消息影響，大盤走出了一波整理行情，不過收盤成功收復了盤中跌幅，最終小幅走高。影響昨天大盤走勢的利空消息之一是美林對幾隻銀行股的評級調降，包括美國銀行(BAC)。同時，JP摩根大通 (JPM)和瑞銀(UBS)雙雙調降了美林的盈利預期。結果銀行板塊走低，KBW銀行指數下跌0.44%。

圖1.1 KBW銀行指數(日線圖)

銀行板塊總體技術面依然看跌，原因有二：首要原因是指數依然位於去年10月開始的下降趨勢線下方，第二，週一指數測試關鍵阻力失敗後，昨天價格繼續下跌，這一走勢使得前期"低點更低、高點更低"的形態繼續產生效力的可能性增大。當然這並不意味著局面不會發生改變。不過，在指數堅定站上90點左右的關鍵價位之前，我們還不敢信心十足地說一個重要底部已經形成。

另外，從短期相對強弱指標(RSI)來看，銀行板塊已經進入了超買領域，因此未來數天出現一定的疲軟走勢是不足為奇的。指數在73-82點的區間有一個支撐帶。

金融股的利空消息使得大盤上行乏力，標普500僅高收3個點，漲幅0.2%。

圖1.2 標普500指數(日線圖)

目前對標普而言非常關鍵的一點，是能否在50日均線阻力附近繼續走高。不但50日均線是一個非常強大的阻力位，而且過去兩個交易日的量能均處在 2月底以來的最低水平，這都是市場多頭最不願意面對的情形。由此看來，在指數再次強勁上揚之前，繼續走出整理行情是非常有可能的。

總結：儘管從上週一開始的一波攻勢大有偃旗息鼓的架勢，但是市場短期趨勢依然是看漲的，大盤的技術形態也比較有利。不過眼下大盤的確缺乏足夠的沖高動能。總而言之，市場需要一些積極的催化劑和繼續盤整，來積蓄所需的動能。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

Tuesday, March 25, 2008

Stage set for further gains

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Tuesday March 25, 2008.

Stocks kicked off the week on a positive note with the Dow Jones industrial average jumped almost 190 points, or 1.5% to finish at 12548. As a matter of fact, Monday's trading action had confirmed the validity of the "bullish" scenario that we've traced out right here in the previous Market Outlook when we wrote that: "it's possible to see further short-term gains."

Contributed to the overall optimism was a better than expected housing report. The February existing home sales report showed that sales rose 2.9% to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 5.03 million. Economists expected sales to fall to 4.85 million from the prior reading of 4.89 million. Although existing home sales remain weak, the report provided some hope as it marked the first monthly rise in one year. The report had helped to put in a bid in the homebuilding stocks with the Philadelphia housing sector index rose 5.29%.

Chart 1.1 – Philadelphia housing sector index (daily).

Price had rallied directly into the area of resistant at the 150 level. At this moment, it's unknown whether this level can be taken out or not though a sustain advance above this will complete the bullish head and shoulder pattern and hence, have the power to fuel a run into the area of key resistant around the 190 level. Key support is about 123.

Shortly after Monday opening bell JP Morgan Chase (JPM) confirmed that it is going to increase its offer for Bear Stearns (BSC) to $10 a share. The news had gave the market a broad-based lift because it provided some evidence that helped stock investors to feel that the financial crisis is approaching a bottom. The S&P jumped 1.5% as a result.

Chart 1.2 – S&P 500 index (daily).

The main even here is the cross above the key price level at the area of the 50-day moving average. The action is bullish and suggesting that this could be the beginning of a new recovery up-leg off the March low at 1256 that has the potential to fuel a run to the area of key price level at 1400. As mentioned, a walk above this level will turn the medium-term trend up and hence, put the bulls back into the diver side of the market. Support is about 1270.

In summary: the bulls are doing a pretty good job recovering the lost levels though the bears still have the benefit of the doubts unit or unless the S&P manage to cross above the 1400 level. With that said, while the short-term charts exhibit a very positive character that should help setting the stage for further short-term gain, the upside reward could be limited to S&P 1400.

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

繼續走高

這是Capital Essence對2008年3月25日(週二)的市場技術分析。

本周第一個交易日，美股出現較大幅度上揚，道瓊斯工業平均指數上漲近190點至12548點，漲幅1.5%。事實上，週一的行情同我們在昨天的市場前瞻中作出的看漲判斷非常一致，我們提到："大盤短期內有可能進一步上揚。"導致市場樂觀情緒的利好消息之一是住房報告超出預期。2月份現房銷售報告顯示，經季節調整按年率銷售數量為503萬套，增幅2.9%。此前經濟學家預測2月份銷售量將從上個月的489萬套下降至485萬套。儘管現房銷售依然不景氣，但是報告仍讓大家看到了一線希望，畢竟一年來首次出現月度增長。報告使得地產股大幅飆升，費城房地產指數大漲5.29%。

圖1.1 費城房地產指數(日線圖)

昨天房地產指數已經逼近150點的關鍵阻力位。目前我們還無法預知該阻力能否被攻破，不過如果指數堅定站上該位置，將形成完成的"頭肩底"形態，從而激發進一步走高的動能，向190點附近的重大阻力發起挑戰。關鍵支撐位大約在123點。

昨天開盤後不久，JP摩根大通(JPM)表示將提高對貝爾斯登(BSC)的出價，從每股2美元提升至10美元。這一消息讓投資者感到金融危機興許已經接近底部，從而助推了大盤的上揚，標普500指數上漲1.5%。

圖1.2 標普500指數(日線圖)

昨天標普走勢最有利的一點是突破了50日均線的關鍵價位，意味著指數有可能從1256點的3月低點開始一波新的反轉行情，並向1400點的關鍵阻力發起衝擊。同樣，標普站上該價位將扭轉中期跌勢，令多頭成為市場的主導力量。支撐位大約在1270點。

總結：最近多頭在收復失地方面成績顯著，不過，除非標普成功拿下1400點，否則市場信心仍難以全面恢復。由此看來，儘管短期圖形非常有利，市場還將進一步走高，但是上行空間在標普1400點處受到限制。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

Monday, March 24, 2008

Further short-term gain is likely

Editor's note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence's CEM News on March 23, 2008. It's being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Monday March 24, 2008.

Stocks swing wildly last week with the Dow gained more than 400 points on Tuesday, down 300 on Wednesday, and then getting back nearly 300 on the last day of the holiday shorten week. Financials led the way higher, thanks to a pair of upgrades and news that the Fed is expanding its previously announced plan to increase liquidity. The KBW Bank index rose 7.41% Thursday to close at 85.85.

Chart 1.1 – KBW Bank index (daily).

The main even here is the cross above the key price level at the area of the 50-day moving average. This is bullish and had, in fact, confirmed the validity of the "bullish bias" scenario that we've traced out right here a couple days ago when we wrote that: "there is a pretty good chance that we'll see a push upward into the area of key resistance, about 87."

What we want to see now is an upside follow-through to last week's bullish breakout. And the most obvious level to watch is the 90 level. A successful push above this level will raise the odds that a sustainable double bottom is in place. Key support is at the area of March low, about 73. At this juncture, only a sustain decline below this level can wreck the bullish outlook.

It worth notice that oil prices, which hit record highs last week, had slipped for two straight days along with other dollar-traded commodities in response to the stronger U.S. currency.

Chart 1.2 – Light sweet crude oil index (daily).

Last week's decline had pushed prices back directly into the area of key support at the previous bullish breakout point. Not only that this is a strong support, the short-term relative strength index (RSI) indicator had also reach the oversold level and we, therefore, wouldn't be surprise to see a rebound into the 104-106 area. Key support is at last Thursday's low, about 98.90.

Despite the massive sell-off in the commodity sector, optimism surrounding the financial stocks had helped to push the board market higher with the S&P 500 index rose 2.39% to finish at 1329.

Chart 1.3 – S&P 500 index (daily).

Last Thursday's bullish trading action was very important because not only it's indicative that the double bottom still in place, there's now a higher low to go along with it. However, the fact the index still trades below the widely followed 50-day moving average as resistant seems favorable the bearish case. This doesn't mean that this level can't be taken out, but until we see a sustain advance above it, the basic definition of a declining trend remains in force.

While the short-term outlook remains dull, the bullish divergence on the on balance volume, or OBV, indicator couple with the surging negative investor's sentiment - according to Investor's Intelligence, the bearishness of newsletter writers had reached the eye popping level of 44.7% - signal that an important bottom could be in the making. The index has a layer of resistance that runs from 1350 to 1400.

In summary: while history hardly repeats itself, it's possible to see further short-term gains after last week's explosive upside move. However, until the S&P cross above the 1400 level, the bulls don't really have any cases.

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

短期或繼續上揚

這是Capital Essence對2008年3月24日(週一)的市場技術分析。

上周美股走勢如同過山車一般，道指週二上漲400多點，週三下跌300點，而週四最後一個交易日再次上漲近300點。主要受評級調升和聯儲繼續加強流動性注入的消息刺激，金融股上週四充當了領漲角色，KBW銀行指數大漲7.41%，收於85.85點。

圖1.1 KBW銀行指數(日線圖)

上週四銀行指數一個最有利的信號便是收復了50日均線。這一走勢確認了我們數天前在本欄作出的看漲判斷的有效性，我們當時提到："銀行指數很有可能上攻至關鍵阻力位，大約87點。"

目前我們希望指數能夠在上周突破的基礎上繼續沖高，最應該關注的位置是90點附近區域。如果指數站上該位置，形成"雙底"形態的可能性將大為增加，漲勢將得以持續。關鍵支撐位在3月低點，大約73點。在當前形勢下，只有堅定跌破該支撐才可能逆轉看漲態勢。

另外值得注意的是，油價上周創出新高之後，受美元走強的影響，連續兩個交易日同其他美元定價的大宗商品一道大幅回調。

圖1.2 輕質低硫原油指數(日線圖)

原油價格經過上周的大跌，已經逼近前期向上突破位的關鍵支撐區域。這是一個非常有力的支撐，同時相對強弱指標(RSI)也顯示出超賣，因此我們預計油價可能會反彈至104～106美元的區域。關鍵支撐位在上週四低點，大約98.90美元。

儘管大宗商品板塊集體跳水，但是在金融股一片祥和氣氛的籠罩下，大盤大幅上揚，標普500指數高收2.39%，收於1329點。

圖1.3 標普500指數(日線圖)

上週四的上漲意義非常重大，它不但意味著"雙底"形態繼續有效，而且低點已經開始抬高。不過，由於標普依然位於50日均線這一備受關注的阻力位下方，似乎下跌的可能性還是要大一些。這倒不是說50日線無法攻破，但是在指數大幅站上該阻力之前，嚴格意義上的下跌趨勢依然掌握著控制權。

儘管短期形勢並不十分有利，但是平衡交易量指標(On Balance Volume,OBV)出現看漲背離，同時反映投資者情緒的指標、看跌的投資通訊編輯比例大增至44.7%，這些都說明市場正在形成一個重要底部。標普在1350～1400點區域有一個阻力帶。

總結：儘管歷史很少會重複自身，在經過上周的爆炸式上漲之後，短期內大盤仍有可能繼續上揚。不過在標普站上1400點之前，多頭不會有太大的機會。

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Thursday, March 20, 2008

Is this another sell the rally opportunity?

Editor's note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence's CEM News on March 19, 2008. It's being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Thursday March 20, 2008.

Those who were looking for a follow-through move to Tuesday's massive rally were largely disappointed by the end of Wednesday's trading. Stocks opened on a positive tone though the opening gains quickly evaporated immediately after a broad-based sell-off in the commodity arena that saw gold plunged $69.00, or 6.5%, to $939 per ounce.

Chart 1.1 – World gold index (daily).

Gold sold off sharply on Wednesday. This is the yellow metal first selloff since November. The decline has pushed prices back directly into the area of the 50-day moving average. Was today weakness just another buying opportunity or the beginning of something worse? This is the million dollar question. We've seen this type of sell-off plenty of times over the last few months, especially after the commodities hit a key price level, which is 1000 in this case, but there were hardly any decisive downside follow-through though this could be changed pretty easily. Right now, support at the area of the 50-day moving average is very important. In addition, Wednesday sell-off seemed to be a bit overdone and we suspect that the bulls will be looking to reload around this level. Key resistance is at today high, about 1000.

The massive sell-of in the commodity sector dragged on the board market. The S&P has given up more than half of Tuesday's gain due to the commodities rout.

Chart 1.2 – S&P 500 index (daily).

The index plunged more than 2% Wednesday after the rally into the area of key resistance around the 50-day moving average was met with an aggressive wave of selling interest. Right now, the most obvious level to watch is Monday's low at 1256. A failure to hold above this level will trigger all sorts of stops, so to speak, and hence has the potential to push prices back into the area of 2006 low, about 1220. Key resistance is at Wednesday high, about 1341.51.

In summary: general speaking, Wednesday massive decline has the characteristic of a technical rotation – fast money rotated out the high flying commodities stocks – than a real board-base break to the downside. With that said, the bulls shouldn't get into any serious trouble as long as the S&P holds above Monday's low.

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

下跌空間不大

這是Capital Essence對2008年3月20日(週四)的市場技術分析。

人們本指望股市能夠在週二大漲的基礎上再接再厲，但是昨天下午大盤的走勢令人失望。昨天大盤高開，但是受大宗商品全面暴挫拖累，股市立即跟隨出現大跌。昨天黃金價格跳水69美元至每盎司939美元，跌幅6.5%。

圖1.1 世界黃金指數(日線圖)

週三金價暴跌，這是自去年11月以來黃金價格首次出現大幅回調，並將指數打壓至50日均線支撐區域。昨天的下跌到底是一個抄底的機會，還是一輪跌勢的開始？這個問題非常重要。在過去幾個月，金價已經出現過幾次回調，尤其是在價格上升到一個關鍵位置的時候，不過並未出現決定性的延續跌勢，但這次是千元大關，情況可能會有所不同。目前50日均線的支撐非常重要。另外，週三的拋盤似乎有點過頭，我們預計可能會有一部分抄底買盤出現。關鍵阻力位在昨日高點，大約1000點。

商品板塊的跳水拖累了大盤，標普蒸發了週二一半多的漲幅。

圖1.2 標普500指數(日線圖)

昨天標普在反彈至50日均線關鍵阻力區域遭遇強勁拋盤，股指下挫超過2%。目前最應該關注的點位是週一的低點，大約1256點。如果指數未能堅守該低點，將觸發大量止損，從而有可能將價格推向2006年低點區域，大約1220點。關鍵阻力位在昨日高點，大約1341.51點。

總結：總體而言，週三的大跌不太像真正的全面殺跌，而是具有技術性輪換的特點，即快錢從飆漲的商品股撤資出來。因此，只要標普堅守週一的低點，繼續大跌的可能性並不大。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

Bullish bias going into March quadruple witching expiration

Editor's note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence's CEM News on March 18, 2008. It's being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Wednesday March 19, 2008.

Stocks jumped Tuesday, with the Dow soared 420 points, its fourth-biggest one-day point gain ever, amid positive earning reports from Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc (LEH) and Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS). Aside from these upbeat earning reports, the FOMC decision was also helped move stocks to the highs of the day. The Federal Reserve cut the fed funds rate by 75 basis points, to 2.25%. As a matter of fact, Tuesday's trading action had confirmed the validity of the "Looking for a Bottom" scenario that we've traced out right here in the previous Market Outlook when we wrote that: "despite the intense selling pressure, the S&P is hanging stubbornly above the critical 1270 level. The action is indicative that the market is still in a process of finding the bottom."

Overall it was a very interesting trading session. And unsurprisingly, all stocks in the "Swing Trader Bulletin" portfolio simply EXPLODED Tuesday led by Amazon.com Inc (AMZN). Shares of the online retailer rose 7.77% - the position is holding an unrealized gain about 11% since profiled on March 10. Ariba Inc (ARBA) rose 5.21%, Google Inc (GOOG) jumped 4.59%, Lifecell Corp (LIFC) gained 4.55%, Agilent Technology Inc (A) up 2.70%, Cal-Maine Foods Inc (CALM) gained 2.74% - the position is holding an amazing gain of more than 53% and trading at an all time high. The newly profiled Merck & Co (MRK) also jumped 3.20% on its debuts today!

Positive responses to Lehman and Goldman Sachs earning reports sparked a massive rally in the financial sector with the KBW Bank index gained 7.24% on the day.

Chart 1.1 – KBW Bank index (daily).

Price had rally directly into key resistance at the area of 20-day moving average. At this moment, it's unknown whether this level can be taken out or not though the leading bullish divergence on the On Balance Volume, or OBV, indicator at recent low suggested that there is a pretty good chance that we'll see a push upward into the area of key resistance, about 87. Key support is about 75.

Optimism surrounding financial stocks had helped to push the market significantly higher with the boarder market, S&P, index rose 4.24% to finish at 1330.

Chart 1.2 – S&P 500 index (daily).

Thanks to Tuesday massive rally, it looks like the bullish double bottom pattern now has a chance. The main event here is the push above last Friday's bearish reversal point, about 1320, and through the 20-day moving average. What we want to see next is a sustain advance above the overhead resistance at the area of February high, about 1400. In addition, the leading bullish divergence on the On Balance Volume, or OBV, indicator at recent low couple with today's bullish crossed above the 20-day moving average also seem favorable a break to the upside. Key support is at the area of January low, about 1270.

In summary: technically speaking, Tuesday's explosive upside move had helped reversing the pace of price action, from negative to positive. This is bullish and suggesting further strength going into Thursday quadruple witching expiration.

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

本周繼續上漲

這是Capital Essence對2008年3月19日(週三)的市場技術分析。

週二美股大漲，道指飆升420點，為有史以來第四大單日點位漲幅。導致昨天股市飆升的利好消息主要有雷曼兄弟(LEH)和高盛(GS)的超預期財報，同時聯邦公開市場委員會的降息舉措也使得各大股指尾盤暴漲。昨天聯儲宣佈降低聯邦基金利率75個基點，至2.25%。事實上，昨天大盤的走勢同我們在昨天的市場前瞻中提出的"築底"判斷十分吻合，我們當時提到："儘管大盤遭遇強勁賣壓，標普依然不屈不撓地堅守在1270點上方。這一走勢意味著市場仍處在築底的過程當中。"

總的來說，昨天的行情非常有意思。不用說，我們"Swing Trader Bulletin"投資組合中的股票均出現爆炸式上漲。其中網絡零售股亞馬遜(AMZN)以7.77%的漲幅居於首位，該股自從我們3月10日作出推薦以來已經上漲11%。另外，Ariba Inc(ARBA)大漲5.21%，谷歌(GOOG)上漲4.59%，Lifecell(LIFC)上漲4.55%，安捷倫(Agilent Technology)(A)漲幅2.70%，Cal-Maine Foods(CALM)高收2.74%，最後這只股票漲幅已經高達53%以上，而且創出了歷史新高。昨天我們剛剛推薦的默沙東(Merck & Co)(MRK)第一天便大漲3.20%。

市場對雷曼和高盛財報的積極反應導致金融板塊大幅上揚，KBW銀行指數昨天暴漲7.24%。

圖1.1 KBW銀行指數(日線圖)

昨天銀行指數收盤上摸20日均線的關鍵阻力。目前我們還無法預知該阻力能否被攻破，不過近期處於低位的平衡交易量指標(On Balance Volume,OBV)出現看漲背離，預示著指數有可能繼續上攻至87點附近的關鍵阻力區域。關鍵支撐位大約在75點。

金融股的全線飄綠也大幅拉升了大盤，標普大漲4.24%至1330點。

圖1.2 標普500指數(日線圖)

由於昨天的大漲，目前看起來標普的"雙底"形態有可能得到延續。昨天行情中最有利的兩點是站上了上週五1320點的向下反轉位和20日均線。接下來如果指數能夠堅定攻破1400點的2月高點阻力，將是非常有利的。另外，平衡交易量指標的看漲背離也預示著指數向上突破的可能。關鍵支撐位在1月低點，大約1270點。

總結：從技術上講，昨天的爆炸式飆漲逆轉了大盤的下跌動能。這是一個看漲信號，同時意味著在週四"四重魔力日"到來之時大盤動能充足。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

Tuesday, March 18, 2008

Can the FED save the market?

Editor's note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence's CEM News on March 17, 2008. It's being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Tuesday March 18, 2008.

It was a remarkable day on Wall Street Monday for what started to be another nervous breakdown in stocks, ended in a much better fashion than the majority of market participants had expected. Stocks cut losses and the Dow managed to end higher Monday, the blue-chips index lost as much as 193 points at its low of the day, gained about 21 points to 11972.

Contributed to the overall weaknesses was the news that JP Morgan Chase (JPM) agreed to buy Stearns (BSC) for just $2 a share, or $236 million. That's significantly below Bear Stearns's book value of $84 per share at the end of the fourth quarter.

Nervousness overall Bear Stearns's fire sale had not only triggered a systematic "unwinding" in the financial services but also in the commodities industry as well.

Chart 1.1 – Commodity index (daily).

The commodity index which is composed of corn, wheat, soybeans, sugar, oil, gold…etc broke down decisively Monday. Technically speaking, today breakdown had completed the bearish double top pattern. For starters, double top, or "M" pattern, occurs when the market makes two significant and similar tops within a short period of time surrounding a small decline. When the trough of that decline — support — is broken, the pattern is complete and further weaknesses can be expected.

While the medium-term outlook is bearish, Monday sell-off appeared to be overdone. Expect some sorts of consolidation around the 400 level follow by another naughty sell-off that has the potential to push prices into the area of key support at previous bullish breakout point, about 370.

Although, given how much angst there was over the Bear Stearns's fallout, the bulls have to be happy with how little damage was done to the major indices today.

Chart 1.2 – S&P 500 index (daily).

Despite the overall weakness, the index managed to close above key support at the area of January low at 1270. As this moment, we still don't have enough evidence to know for sure whether this level holds or not; though, it worth noticing that the bullish divergence on the On Balance Volume, or OBV, indicator is diminishing after the massive "unwinding" in the past couple of days. The action had increased the risk for a downside breakdown. Keep a close eye on key support at the 1270 for a sustain decline below this level will trigger all sorts of stops, so to speak, and has the potential to push prices into the area of 2006 low, about 1220. Short-term resistant is about 1320.

In summary: despite the intense selling pressure, the S&P is hanging stubbornly above the critical 1270 level. The action is indicative that the market is still in a process of finding the bottom. As like we've said the previous Market Outlook, this is going to be a week to remember. And hopefully market reaction to the FOMC announcement on Tuesday at 2:15 ET will do the trick.

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

聯儲能否成功救市?

這是Capital Essence對2008年3月18日(週二)的市場技術分析。

週一對華爾街來說是非同尋常的一天，股市開盤時看起來大幅跳水在所難免，但是收盤卻令大多數人頗感意外。大盤最終收窄跌幅，其中道指成功高收，最低點一度重跌193點，但收盤上漲21點至11972點。

導致昨天大盤走軟的利空消息是JP摩根大通(JPM)同意以每股2美元、總價2.36億美元的價格收購貝爾斯登(BSC)。這一收購價大大低於貝爾斯登第四季末每股84美元的賬面價值。

貝爾斯登的賤賣不但引發了金融服務板塊系統性的拋售，同樣波及了大宗商品。

圖1.1 商品指數(日線圖)

商品指數是由玉米、小麥、食糖、石油、黃金等商品價格組成。週一商品指數出現大幅跳水。從技術上講，週一的跳水完成了"雙頂"形態。"雙頂"形態又稱"M"形態，當市場在很短的時間內形成兩個類似的重要頂部後出現小幅下跌，該形態便得到確認，如果繼續跌破頸線支撐，便完成了"雙頂"形態，這時通常會出現進一步走低。儘管中期走勢是看跌的，不過週一的拋售似乎有些過頭，我們預計在400點附近會出現一波整理行情，然後繼續大幅下挫，並有可能將指數推向前期向上突破位形成的關鍵價格支撐，大約370點。

儘管市場非常擔心貝爾斯登會嚴重拖累大盤，但事實上並未給各大股指造成太大破壞，對此多頭應該感到慶幸。

圖1.2 標普500指數(日線圖)

標普成功收窄跌幅，收於1270點的1月低點關鍵支撐位上方。目前我們還很難明確判斷指數是否會突破這一位置。不過我們可以注意到，平衡交易量指標 (On Balance Volume,OBV)出現看漲背離。我們應該密切關注1270點這一支撐，如果股指堅定擊穿該支撐，將觸發大量止損，從而有可能徑直奔向1220點附近的2006年低點。短期支撐位大約在1320點。

總結：儘管大盤遭遇強勁賣壓，標普依然不屈不撓地堅守在1270點上方。這一走勢意味著市場仍處在築底的過程當中。今天下午東部時間2點15分聯邦公開市場委員會將發佈政策公告，估計市場有可能在這時最終作出決斷。

本文作者：Michelle Mai)