Capital Essence Blog - 錢途集團: 01/01/2008

Thursday, January 31, 2008

The low will be retested

Editor's note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence's CEM News on January 30, 2008. It's being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Thursday January 31, 2008.

After all, the Fed gave what the market wanted, which was to cut interest rate by a half-point, dropping the federal-funds target to 3%, putting the rate at its lowest level since June 29, 2005. Initially, what unfolded seemed pretty typical — the Fed cuts, the market rallies. But it didn't take long before a 200-point rally in the Dow was met with an aggressive wave of selling interest that saw the 30-stock average ended the day 37 points lower. The action was pretty consistent with the "buy the rumor, sell the news" scenario that we've traced out in the previous Market Outlook.

Contributed to the late day selloff was a report that Fitch had cut its rating on the fourth-largest bond insurer FGIC Corporation and its financial guaranty insurance subsidiaries. Financial stocks gave up all of the post FED gains and some more, down 0.26% for the day.

Chart 1.1: KBW Bank Index (daily).

Yesterday we wrote that: "the index broke out above the 50 day moving average today… [Though] volume had refused to confirm the validity of the bullish breakout…this suggested that we should not put a lot of reading into today's trading action - after all, it was just another bear-market rally." This was exactly what had happened today – the index moved higher immediately after the FED announcement, then sold off sharply and printed an ugly bearish reversal bar as a result. The argument or logical behind today trading action is pretty simple: in bear market we sell rallies, not buy on weakness.

Technically speaking, today trading action suggested that a retest of this month's low should be unfolded shortly. A downside follow-through tomorrow will confirm this. At this juncture, only a sustain advance above December's high, about 100, on a closing basis can repair the technical damage and hence, reduce the risk of having to retest the floor hit last week. Support is about 74.80.

"As goes the bank so goes the market", so to speak. The negative moves made in the financial stocks dragged the S&P lower, down 0.48% for the day.

Chart 1.2: Standard & Poors 500 Index (daily).

The index printed an ugly bearish reversal bar at the area of key resistant. The action is indicative of a retest of key support at last week's low, about 1270. A downside follow-through tomorrow will confirm this. At this juncture, only a sustain advance above the 1400 can wreck the short-term bearish outlook and hence argue for higher prices.

Chart 1.3: Dow Jones Industrial Average (daily).

Similar to the S&P, the blue-chip index also printed a bearish reversal bar at the area of key resistant. Again, the action suggested that a retest of the floor hit last week will be happened sooner rather than later. A downside follow-through tomorrow will confirm this. Support is a bout 11640.

In summary: the technical background is on the negative side, based on Wednesday's late day massive selloff. And we, therefore, see no reason to abandon the working hypothesis that last week's low will be tested.

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It's now available at a monthly rate.

大盤將測試上周低點

這是Capital Essence對2008年1月31日(週四)的市場技術分析。

最終，聯儲還是按照市場的期望降息0.5個百分點，將聯邦基金利率降至3%，使得利率水平處於2005年6月29日以來的最低水平。市場剛開始的反應似乎很正常——聯儲降息，股市飆升。但是很快，道指200點的漲幅就遭遇強力賣壓的重創，最終低收37點。昨天大盤的這一走勢同我們昨天評論中"先漲後跌"的預測頗為一致。

導致昨天尾盤大跌的原因之一，是有報道稱Fitch已經對第四大債券保險商FGIC Corporation進行了降級。昨天金融股不但放棄了公告發佈後的漲幅，還出現進一步下跌，低收0.26%。

圖1.1 KBW銀行指數(日線圖)

在昨天的評論中我們說道："昨天銀行指數突破了50日均線，儘管走勢非常好，但是量能卻拒絕對這一突破作出確認。這意味著我們也許不能對昨天的漲勢寄予太高的期望，因為它很有可能是一波跌勢中的反彈行情。"這正是昨天銀行指數的表現，聯儲宣佈降息後指數立即大幅攀高，隨後很快垂直降落，收出了一根長上影線。昨天的價格走勢很明顯說明了一個問題：在熊市中人們利用反彈出貨，但不會在下跌時買進。

從技術上講，昨天的價格走勢意味著指數將很快重新測試本月低點。如果今天指數繼續下跌，將對此作出確認。在當前的轉折點，只有持續上漲至12月高點 (約100點)之上，收盤站上該阻力，才能夠修復已經造成的技術破位，從而減少向下測試上周最低點的風險。支撐位大約在74.80點。

俗話說："銀行往東，大盤不往西。"金融板塊的跌勢對標普形成拖累，導致標普下跌0.48%。

圖1.2 標普500指數(日線圖)

標普在關鍵阻力附近走出了一根難看的"倒置錘頭"燭線，預示著將重新測試上周低點的重要支撐，大約在1270點。如果今天繼續下跌，將作出確認。在當前關頭，只有持續上漲至1400點之上才能扭轉短期看跌的形態，才有可能進一步走高。

圖1.3 道瓊斯工業平均指數(日線圖)

同標普類似，道指也在關鍵阻力附近形成"倒置錘頭"燭線，同樣意味著很快將重新測試上周創出的最低點。如果今天繼續下跌，將確認這一走勢。支撐位大約在11640點。

總結：目前大盤的技術面非常糟糕，因此出現對上周低點的測試走勢將不可避免。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。

Wednesday, January 30, 2008

降息前後可能先漲後跌

Editor's note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence's CEM News on January 29, 2008. It's being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2008年1月30日(週三)的市場技術分析。

受超出預期的耐用品訂單數據和一些利好財報的推動，週二美股連續第二個交易日出現上漲。同我們預測中一致，由於抄底買盤的持續湧入，昨天地產板塊繼續表現出相對強勢。PHLX房地產指數(HGX)昨天大漲2.92%，今年的燭線已經由紅轉綠了。

圖1.1 PHLX房地產指數(日線圖)

指數目前正大步向去年11月高點阻力位(大約155點)挺進，估計很快就會出現測試阻力的走勢。正如我們提到的，這一位置能否最後攻破尚未可知，但是如果指數站上該阻力，將扭轉中期跌勢，並進一步向上測試200日線附近阻力。支撐位大約在117～127點。

同時，房地產指數的走高再次帶動了金融板塊。儘管美國運通銀行(AXP)發佈了2008年的謹慎財測，市場也傳言評級機構將對債券保險商進行評級調降，昨天銀行指數(BKX)還是大漲2%以上。

圖1.2 KBW銀行指數(日線圖)

昨天銀行指數突破了50日均線，儘管走勢非常好，但是量能卻拒絕對這一突破作出確認。這意味著我們也許不能對昨天的漲勢寄予太高的期望，因為它很有可能是一波跌勢中的反彈行情。我們曾提到，只有當"真正的需求"出現之後，我們才會認為這一輪跌勢已經見底了。關鍵阻力位在12月高點附近，大約 100點。支撐位大約在74.80點。

總的來說，銀行股的反彈給股市注入了活力，標普上漲0.62%，接近當天最高點。

圖1.3 標普500指數(日線圖)

儘管出現上漲，但是標普依然位於2007年最低收盤阻力位之下。這對後市是十分不利的。如果指數持續跌至1322點之下，將意味著重新測試上周低點，大約1270點。短期阻力位大約在1374點。關鍵阻力位在50日均線附近區域，大約1415點。

圖1.4 道瓊斯工業平均指數(日線圖)

昨天道指剛好上漲至12500點附近的短期阻力位，但是量能的表現似乎站在空方一邊。預計指數有可能重新測試上周低點附近的關鍵支撐位，大約在11640點。如果道指今天跌破12112點，將對此作出確認。關鍵阻力位在50日均線附近區域，大約13000點。

總結：近期大盤走勢非常不錯，已經返回至關鍵阻力位。不過，金融股和地產股等重跌板塊沒有出現真正的需求，這對於今天的行情來說是一重大考驗。從大盤的驅動力來講，今天聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)貨幣政策的公佈將成為大家關注的焦點。華爾街預期聯儲將降息50 個基點，大部分人都認為如果降息 25個基點將是十分令人失望的。儘管現在結果到底如何還不知道，不過我們相信大盤很有可能最終測試上周最高點，來決定是否繼續走高。也就是說，這一波反彈只是在消息出來前的一番博弈——預期大幅降息而買進，消息公佈後再賣出。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

Buy the rumor, sell the news

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Wednesday January 30, 2008.

Equity market picked up where it left off yesterday, rallied for the second session in a row as investors cheered the better than expected durable-goods orders and some upbeat earnings. As predicted, homebuilders outperformed the market as the group continued to attract bottom-fishing interest. The PHLX Housing Sector Index (HGX) jumped 2.92% and is now in a plus column for the year.

Chart 1.1: PHLX Housing Sector Index (daily).

The index seems to move well on the expected direction – a test of resistant at the area of December's high, about 155, should be conducted sooner rather than later. As mentioned, it's unknown whether this level holds or not though a walk above this level will turn the medium term trend up and hence suggests a test of resistant around the area of the 200-day moving average. Support is about 127-117.

Once again, the positive trading action in the housing sector had helped lifted financial stocks. The KWB Bank Index (BKX) rose more than 2% today on the face of a cautious 2008 outlook from American Express (AXP) and chatter that the ratings agencies are poised to downgrade the bond insurers.

Chart 1.2: KBW Bank Index (daily).

The index broke out above the 50 day moving average today. While the price action is pretty encouraging, volume had refused to confirm the validity of the bullish breakout. And this suggested that we should not put a lot of reading into today's trading action - after all, it was just another bear-market rally. As mentioned, we want to see "real demand" returns before thinking that the bear has bottomed. Key resistant is at the area of December's high, about 100. Support is about 74.80.

General speaking, the financials rebound had breathed life into the market. The S&P closed near its best level of the day, up 0.62%.

Chart 1.3: Standard & Poors 500 Index (daily).

Despite today gain, the board market index still trades below the 2007's closing low as resistant. The action is bearish. A sustain decline below 1322 indicates a retest of last week's low, about 1270. Short-term resistant is about 1374. Key resistant is at the area of 50-day moving average, about 1415.

Chart 1.4: Dow Jones Industrial Average (daily).

The blue-chip index had rallied directly into the short-term resistant around the 12500 area. Trading volume seems to support the bearish bets. Expect a retest of key support around the area of last week's low, about 11640. A decline below 12112 tomorrow will confirm this. Key resistant is at the area of 50-day moving average, about 13000.

In summary: the market had done a pretty good job walking its way back to key price levels. However, a lack of real demand in the heavy short areas such as financials and homebuilders remains a major concern as we're heading into Wednesday's market mover. Speaking of mover, the FOMC announcement on interest rate tomorrow will be the center of attention. The Street expected a 50 points cut from the FED. It's widely believed that a 25 points cut would be a real disappointment. While it's impossible to know how much the FED is going to offer tomorrow, we believe that there's a pretty good chance that the market will ultimately retest the "floor" hit last week, to determine whether a sustainable rally is in the offing. With that said, the rally is merely an attempt to game the FED ahead of time — buy on the expectation of a big rate cut, sell when the cut comes through.

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Tuesday, January 29, 2008

大盤暫時企穩

Editor's note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence's CEM News on January 28, 2008. It's being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM
News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2008年1月29日(週二)的市場技術分析。

週一大盤走勢不錯，上升股成交量與下跌股成交量之比達到7比2。如果考慮到週一亞洲股市出現2%～7%的跌幅，那麼美股的表現的確令人滿意。尤其令人注目的是，地產股擺脫了不利銷售數據的影響，當天大漲4.3%。

圖1.1 PHLX房地產指數(日線圖)

目前地產股走勢非常好，房地產指數可能出現測試11月高點阻力的走勢，大約在155點。目前還無法預知指數能否突破這一阻力，但是一旦站上該點位之後，中期走勢將轉跌為升，從而繼續向上測試200日均線附近阻力。支撐位大約在117～127點。

房地產板塊的回暖給大盤起到了良好的推動作用，說明市場對金融板塊進一步出現次貸投資損失的憂慮開始緩和。

圖1.2 標普500指數(日線圖)

標普在2007年最低收盤1374點區域下方盤整，說明市場參與者仍存在一定的猶豫情緒，既不堅定看多也不堅定看空。在這種情況下，只要指數能夠守住上周最低點、1270點，多頭就不會遇到太大的麻煩。阻力位在2007年最低收盤區域，大約1374點。

圖1.3 道瓊斯工業平均指數(日線圖)

同標普類似，道指同樣在12500點附近的短期阻力位下方盤整。這一走勢同樣既非看漲也非看跌的，很難據此對後市作出明確判斷。支撐位在上周低點，大約11640點。

總結：市場似乎在聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)會議之前停住了腳步。目前我們只看到在金融和地產等前期被過度做空的板塊出現大量買盤，這說明這一波反彈仍是空頭回補行情。因此，我們看不出有任何理由讓我們放棄先前"逆勢反彈"的判斷，大盤很有可能重新測試上周低點。不過，如果市場能夠成功忽視負面消息的影響，站上關鍵阻力位，那時我們便知道多頭真的開始返場了。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

On hold

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Tuesday January 29, 2008.

Equity market started the week on an uptick that saw 7 stocks advancing for every 2 declining, which was very good considering Asia down 2 to 7 percent overnight. Strikingly, homebuilders managed to shrug off the negative sales report to finish up 4.30% for the day.

Chart 1.1: PHLX Housing Sector Index (daily).

So far so good, the index traded like it wants to test resistant at the area of December's high, about 155. At this moment it's unknown whether this level holds or not though a walk above this level will turn the medium term trend up and hence suggests a test of resistant around the area of the 200-day moving average. Support is about 127-117.

Housing's positive development gave the market a nice boost as concerns surrounding the likelihood of further subprime investment losses for the financial sector started to ease.

Chart 1.2: Standard & Poors 500 Index (daily).

The board market index consolidates right beneath the area of 2007's closing low, about 1374. While the action reflected some sorts of uncertainties among market participants, it's neither bearish nor bullish. With that said, the bulls shouldn't get into any serious troubles as long as the index holds above last week's low, about 1270. Resistant is at the area of 2007's closing low, about 1374.

Chart 1.3: Dow Jones Industrial Average (daily).

Similar to the S&P, the blue-chip index also consolidated right beneath its short-term resistant, about 12500. Again, the action is neither bullish nor bearish. So do not read a lot into it. Support is at last week's low, about 11640.

In summary: the market appears to be caught in a holding pattern ahead of Wednesday's FOMC meeting. So far we're seeing buying interest in the heavy short areas such as financials and homebuilders. The action suggested that this rally is just another short covering bounce. And we, therefore, see no reason to abandon our little "counter-trend bounce" scenario. With that said, there's a pretty good chance that last week's low will be retested. However, if the market manages to shrug off the negative news and moves above key resistant, then we know that real demand has return.

Until next time, good luck.

(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Friday, January 25, 2008

Trade to Win: how to make 100% a day?

We've offered in the previous "Market Outlook" that:

"there is a pretty good chance that the market is going to open up tomorrow and its true character will likely tested during that opening and we suspect that it might be met with selling interest" – see "Higher prices will be greeted by sellers" January 25, 2008.

(Click here to enlarge)

As predicted, the Qs [NASDAQ 100 ETF – QQQQ] closed significantly lower after the strong opening was met with an aggressive wave of selling interest. Any put options traded could have made +100% intraday.

Despite which was another nasty day on the Street, the "Swing Trader Bulletin" continues to beat the market with its latest buy [long] setups. So, we guess this is a good opportunity to review some of these signals.

Excel Maritime (EXM) set up on January 17, 2008. The stock achieved the first target of $32 in just 1 day. That was more 14% gains in 24 hours. The stock is doing fine and working toward our second target.

(Click here to enlarge)

Cal-Maine Foods Inc (CALM) profiled on January 14, 2008 & triggered on January 18, 2007. The stock achieved the first target [a +8.46% gains] in just a couple of days. Similar to EXM, CALM is doing well and is on its way to the second target.

(Click here to enlarge)

Memc Electronic Material (WFR) set up at the beginning of the week, on January 22, 2008. The stock is held extremely strong, gained more than 10 points and had exceeded the first target in just a matter of days. As a matter of fact, you could have bought home a nice 20% gain this weekend (if you've sold into the morning gap).

(Click here to enlarge)

And finally a nice short - this is all about timing.

Molex Inc (MOLX) set up on December 22, 2007. The dog trend nicely and hit our second down side target of $21 on Wednesday, January 23. We've covered the position for more than +23% gains right before it turned around.

(Click here to enlarge)

You see, picking the right stock at the right time is the key to success. And if you like these trading ideas, why not give it a try?

Good luck and good trading.

Note: at Capital Essence, we target sudden profits, typically stocks that we can swing in and out for a quick 10-50% and 100-500% for options.

Want more investing ideas? Check out Capital Essence's Newsletter Services - "best-of-web" technical analysis.

空頭可能逢高出貨

Editor's note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence's CEM News on January 24, 2008. It's being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2008年1月25日(週五)的市場技術分析。

同我們預料中一致，受白宮減稅方案推動，投資者繼續將大盤拉高。昨天道瓊斯工業平均指數上漲0.9%，標普500指數漲幅1%。值得注意的是，昨天金融股繼續領漲大盤。這讓我們相信當前的反彈主要一波空頭回補行情，別忘了，華爾街是完全看空金融板塊的。這有點令人失望，因為大盤的持續上揚需要市場存在真正的做多興趣。因此，如果這個月底之前多頭繼續保持觀望的話，空頭很有可能大規模返場。

圖1.1 KBW銀行指數(日線圖)

銀行指數在週三飆升8.02%之後，昨天再度大漲1.86%，兩天漲幅接近10%。目前銀行指數已經逼近90點附近的關鍵阻力位。當前我們無法預知指數能否突破這一阻力，不過我們認為它很有可能在這一位置迎來一波強力賣盤。支撐位在周二低點，大約74.80點。

圖1.2 道瓊斯工業平均指數(日線圖)

道指週四繼續攀高，證實了我們對股指短期看漲的預測。同時我們依然認為股指將很快測試前期向下突破位的關鍵阻力，大約在12700點。支撐位大約在11630點。

圖1.3 標普500指數(日線圖)

當前走勢還不錯，週四標普繼續走高，確認了對2007年最低收盤這一關鍵點位的測試，大約在1374點。支撐位大約在1270點。

總結：不用說，過去幾個交易日大盤的走勢振奮人心。不過我們不要忘了，從整體趨勢來看，大盤依然處在長期跌勢中。完全修復已經造成的破壞需要很長時間。在大趨勢沒有改變的情況下，反彈應該被當成出貨的機會。因此，我們認為今天大盤很可能高開，但是市場的真實反應會在開盤後慢慢顯現，我們懷疑會有大量賣盤出現，至少在剛開始的時候。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

Higher prices will be greeted by sellers

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Friday January 25, 2008.

As predicted, the stocks extended the winning strike as investors' cheers the White House's stimulus plan. For the day, the Dow Jones industrial added 0.9%. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index gained 1%. It worth noticing that financials continued to provide leadership in Thursday rally. The action led us to believe that the rally was predominantly by short covering – remember, the Street was net short financials. This is not very encouraging because a sustain rally needs REAL buying interest. There is a pretty good chance that the bears will return in force if buyers fail to show up before the calendar turns to February.

Chart 1.1: KBW Bank Index (daily).

The bank index added another 1.86% on top of Wednesday's monster gain of 8.02%. That's about 10% in just 2 days. It's heading toward the area of key resistant, around the 90 level. At this moment, it's unknown whether this level holds or not though we think there's a pretty good chance that it'll meet with an aggressive wave of selling interest. Support is at Tuesday's low, about 74.80.

Chart 1.2: Dow Jones Industrial Average (daily).

The blue-chip index followed through to the upside Thursday and hence, confirmed our short-term bullish outlook on the index. Again, we're believed that a test of key resistant around the area of previous bearish breakdown point, about 12700, is on the card. Support is about 11630.

Chart 1.3: Standard & Poors 500 Index (daily).

So far so good, the board market index followed through to the upside and hence confirmed the test of key price level around the area of 2007's closing low, about 1374. Support is about 1270.

In summary: needless to say, trading action was pretty encouraging in the past couple of days. However, do not forget that the big picture is still bearish with the long-term trend pointing down. It'll take a lot of time to repair the damages done. And until these changes, rallies should be taken as selling opportunities. With that said we believe that there is a pretty good chance that the market is going to open up tomorrow and its true character will likely tested during that opening and we suspect that it might be met with selling interest, at least initially.

Until next time, good luck.

(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Thursday, January 24, 2008

逆勢反彈

Editor's note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence's CEM News on January 23, 2008. It's being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2008年1月24日(週四)的市場技術分析。

在昨天的評論中我們說到："週二大盤的走勢意味著短期底部可能已經形成……我們估計很有可能持續數個交易日。"週三股市出現大幅反彈，道指不但全部收復了早些時候300點的跌幅，而且繼續走高，最終高收298點(振幅達到600點)。道瓊斯工業平均指數大漲2.5%，標普500指數上漲 2.1%。納指收復早些時候超過3%的失地，上漲1%。羅素2000小型股指數表現最為突出，大漲3.26%。

圖1.1 芝加哥期權交易所(CBOE)波動率指數(VIX)(日線圖)

波動率指數從多年來高點出現回撤，證實了我們"短期底部"的說法。我們再介紹一下，波動率指數沖高說明投資者恐慌情緒嚴重，往往意味著市場底部的形成。

圖1.2 羅素2000指數(日線圖)

數周前我們曾在本欄提到："最應該關注的位置是2006年的低點……預計在這個位置會出現一波空頭回補帶來的反彈。"羅素2000在測試 2006年低點之後迎來了一波強力買盤，從而出現大幅反彈。這一走勢非常有利，至少在短期內。預計在未來幾個交易日羅素將測試2007年最低收盤的上方阻力，大約在735點。支撐位大約在650點。

圖1.3 道瓊斯工業平均指數(日線圖)

道指昨天放量逆勢大漲，形勢非常有利。預計道指將在未來數日測試前期向下突破位的阻力，大約在12700點。如果今天指數繼續上揚，將對這一測試作出確認。支撐位大約在11630點。

圖1.4 標普500指數(日線圖)

同道指類似，標普以兩倍於日均值的成交量大幅反轉，後市看漲。預計標普將在未來數日測試2007年最低收盤點位附近阻力，大約在1374點。如果今天指數繼續走高，將對此作出確認。支撐位大約在1270點。

總結：週三的行情印證了我們"短期底部"的提法。不過從技術層面來看，這個底部不會是最後的底。因此，我們認為這一波行情屬於逆勢反彈，而不是反轉，應該藉機縮減倉位。我們相信，絕佳的賣空機會很快就會出現。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

Counter trend bounce

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Thursday January 24, 2008.

Yesterday we've said that: "the market might have hit the short-term bottom…there's a pretty good chance that [the bounce] will last for a couple of days" – equity market kicked off a nice rally Wednesday that saw the Dow recovered all of the 300 points loss earlier in the session and then some to close up 298 points – that was a 600 points swing. For the day, the Dow Jones industrial added 2.50%. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index rose 2.1%. The NASDAQ Composite gained 1% after sinking more than 3% earlier in the session. The small cap, Russell 2000 Index outperformed its larger peers, jumped 3.26%.

It worth notice that homebuilding and financial led Wednesday's advance with the Philadelphia Bank Index (BKX) jumped +8.02% to $86.57 – 23 out of 24 components finishing in positive territory.

Chart 1.1: CBOE Market Volatility Index (daily).

The CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, retreat from the multi-year high and hence confirmed our "tradable low" notion. For starters, VIX peak is indicative of an outright panic among market participants, which often associates with market bottom.

Chart 1.2: Russell 2000 Index (daily).

We've offered right here a couple weeks ago that: "the most obvious level to watch is the 2006's low…Expect some sorts of short-covering rallies around this level" – the small caps index rebound nicely after the test of support around the 2006's low was met with an aggressive wave of buying interest. The action is pretty encouraging, at least in a short-term. Expect a test of resistant around the area of 2007's closing low, about 735, in the upcoming days. Support is about 650.

Chart 1.3: Dow Jones Industrial Average (daily).

The blue-chip index printed a bullish reversal bar on huge volume. This is bullish. Expect a test of resistant around the area of previous bearish breakdown point, about 12700, in the upcoming days. An upside follow through tomorrow will confirm this. Support is about 11630.

Chart 1.4: Standard & Poors 500 Index (daily).

Similar to the Dow, the S&P also printed a bullish reversal bar on two time daily average volume. The action is pretty bullish. Expect a test of resistant around the area of 2007's closing low, about 1374, in the upcoming days. An upside follow through tomorrow will confirm this. Support is about 1270.

In summary: Wednesday's trading action had confirmed our "short-term bottom" notion. Although, the technical background suggests that this is not the final bottom of this bear market. With that said, the bounce is counter trend in nature and hence should be taken as an opportunity to trim holdings. And we believe that a nice short-selling opportunity will be unfold sooner rather than later.

Until next time, good luck.

(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Wednesday, January 23, 2008

築底過程剛剛開始

Editor's note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence's CEM News on January 22, 2008. It's being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2008年1月23日(週三)的市場技術分析。

由於全球股市出現恐慌性拋售(香港恆生指數兩個交易日暴跌13.7%)，週二美股大幅低開。在盤前的交易中，道瓊斯工業平均指數跌幅超過500 點。但是聯儲降息公告的發佈迅速提升了市場信心。週二盤前，聯儲出人意料地大幅降息75個基點至3.5%，這一救市舉措幫助股市收復了大部分開盤跌幅。

總的來說，昨天美股的表現儘管沒有看上去那麼糟糕，但也是非常負面的。昨天的走勢是否意味著底部形成呢？我們來看一些直觀的圖形。

圖1.1 芝加哥期權交易所(CBOE)波動率指數(VIX)(日線圖)

波動率指數開盤大幅超過2002年最高點、37.50點，然後迅速回跌，不過依然處在較高位置。這意味著市場出現嚴重恐慌，從而預示市場底部的形成。

圖1.2 道瓊斯工業平均指數(日線圖)

在開盤前，道指期貨一度狂瀉600點，但是聯儲的降息緩和了市場的悲觀情緒。道指成功收復早盤的大部分跌幅，最後收於當日振幅高位。值得注意的是，昨天空頭終於完成了過去數年來未能成功的事業——攻破前一年最低收盤點位(2007年最低收盤是12050.41點)。這很明顯意味著長期趨勢的逆轉。今天我們需要密切關注昨天的低點、11630點，如果股指跌破這一位置將觸發大量止損，從而導致恐慌性拋盤。

圖1.3 標普500指數(日線圖)

同道指類似，標普開盤出現恐慌性局面，但是持續時間不長，砸盤很快讓位於強勢反彈。股指在開盤後一個小時內收復了開盤大部分跌幅，然後一直窄幅橫向運行直到收盤。這一走勢令人樂觀，至少在短期內，因為它說明投資者沒有很強的反彈出貨意圖。支撐位在昨天低點，大約在1274點。

總結：週二大盤的走勢意味著短期底部可能已經形成，不過反彈能夠持續多久還有待觀察，我們估計很有可能持續數個交易日。同時我們依然強調，這絕對不是這一波跌勢最後的底部，可能只是築底過程的開始，而非跌勢的終結。簡而言之，最糟糕的還未到來，但短期抄底Đ 31;會已經出現。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

The End of the Beginning

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Wednesday January 23, 2008.

Equity market opened in a lower mode Tuesday in response to an outright panic selloff in overseas markets that saw the Hong Kong Hang-Seng Index dropped 13.7% in the past two sessions. Prior to the open, the Dow Jones Industrial Average were signaling a loss of more than 500 points. The bearish sentiment was, however, cut down immediately after the FED's announcement. In a surprise move, the Fed decided to cut the Fed Funds target interest rates by 75 basic points to 3.5%. The move has helped stocks to recoup most of the early losses.

Overall, it was an outright negative day on the Street though not as negative as it might seem at a glance. If so, does today's action mean we are at a bottom? And for this question, we've a couple of simple charts to follow.

Chart 1.1: CBOE Market Volatility Index (daily).

The CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, opened well above the 37.50 level – its highest level since 2002 – and then quickly fell back, though still at elevated level. This indicated an outright panic, which often associated with market bottom.

Chart 1.2: Dow Jones Industrial Average (daily).

At one point prior to the opening bell, futures contracts were signaling that the Dow would fall 600 points for Tuesday session. However, the FED's announcement cut down that bearish sentiment. The blue-chip index managed to recover most of the early losses and closed around its best level of the day. It worth notice that, the bears had finally achieved something that they weren't able to do in the past couple of years – pushing the index below the previous year's lowest closing level (the lowest close in 2007 was 12050.41). This is a clear indication of a change in the underlying trend. Keep an eye on today's low, about 11630, for a breakdown below this level will trigger all sorts of stops and hence create an outright panic.

Chart 1.3: Standard & Poors 500 Index (daily).

Similar to the Dow, the board market index opened in the same panic mode, but it didn't last long. The selling climax soon gave way to a pretty good bounce. The index recouped most of the early losses within an hour after the opening bell and moved sideways into the close. The action is pretty encouraging, at least in a short-term, because it implied that the "sell the rally" mentality had been broken. Support is at today's low, about 1274.

In summary: Tuesday's trading action suggested that the market might have hit the short-term bottom. Whether the bounce has further to go is remained to be seen. Though we think there's a pretty good chance that it'll last for a couple of days. As always, we must stress that this is not the final bottom of this bear leg. It's merely a beginning of the bottoming process rather than the end of the bear market. In short, the worst may not be over but a tradable low is upon us.

Until next time, good luck.

(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

可能出現快速反彈

Editor's note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence's CEM News on January 21, 2008. It's being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2008年1月22日(週二)的市場技術分析。

上周，在衰退憂慮和金融市場重大利空的打壓下，美股繼續萎靡不振，各大股指大幅走低。整個一周標普500下跌76點，跌幅5.4%，已經從去年 10月峰值縮水15%。納斯達克綜合指數下跌100點至2340點，跌幅4.1%，低於去年10月高點18%。道瓊斯工業平均指數下跌507點，跌幅 4%，收於12099點。道指在過去4周已經下跌了約10%，低於去年10月峰值15%。這是道指有史以來最差的一年開端。

在大盤連續下跌4周後，很多人都在擔心跌勢還將持續多久。為了弄明白這個問題，我們先來看一些直觀的圖形：

圖1.1 芝加哥期權交易所(CBOE)波動率指數(VIX)(周線圖)

從上周芝加哥期權交易所波動率指數的走勢來看，投資者對股市的憂慮情緒進一步攀升。上週四道指跳水300多點的時候，波動率指數暴漲16%。儘管上週五出現大約4%的回落，說明緊張氣氛有所緩和，從技術上講，波動率指數大幅走高說明市場存在恐慌情緒，通常意味著短期抄底機會的出現。如果本周該指數出現回調，將確認短期底部的形成。

圖1.2 標普500指數(周線圖)

從中期來看，標普已經處於嚴重超賣狀態。從圖上我們可以看到，通常作為超買或超賣指示器的相對強弱指標(RSI)已經跌至了2002年以來的最低點。總的來說，投資者可以利用這一信號捕捉一波跌市中的反彈。長期支撐位大約在2006年最低收盤附近，約1223.69點。短期阻力位大約在 1374～1400之間的區域。

圖1.3 道瓊斯工業平均指數(周線圖)

道指目前正在測試2007年最低收盤位的關鍵價格支撐，大約在12050.41點。目前我們還無法確定這一位置能否最後守住。儘管相對強弱指標已經跌至2002年來最低，但出現逆勢反彈的機會還是很大的。正如我們提到的，如果指數收盤跌破2007年最低收盤點位，長期牛市將轉為熊市。短期支撐位大約在12600點。

圖1.4 納斯達克綜合指數(周線圖)

同道指類似，經過上周的下跌之後，納指已經回調至2007年最低收盤的關鍵價格支撐，大約2340.68點。同上面提到的一樣，納指能否守住這一位置至關重要。從相對強弱指標來看，過去幾年在目前位置屢屢出現大幅反彈，我們預計這次也會出現一波迅速反彈。阻力位大約在2500點。

總結：股市就像皮筋一樣，如果跌離"公平"價值太遠，通常會出現反彈。因此，在目前很多股票已經跌出估值吸引力的情況下，大盤可能會迎來一波買盤。不過至少就目前而言，大盤的上升空間非常有限，幾個月來下跌對股市造成的嚴重破壞並非短時間能夠修復。同時我們繼續強調，如果大盤未能成功出現反彈，將意味著市場缺乏做多動力，大盤還將進一步下探。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)