Capital Essence Blog - 錢途集團: 2008

Wednesday, May 21, 2008

A further prices weakness is likely

Editor's note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence's CEM News. It's being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Wednesday May 21, 2008.

Stocks stumble out of gate Tuesday with the Dow losing nearly 200 points. As a matter of fact, today trading action is very consistent to the bearish "turnaround Tuesday" scenario that we've offered right here in the previous Market Outlook.

Contributed to the overall weaknesses were another record high energy prices, bearish news on financial stocks and a higher than expected core inflation reading.

U.S. light crude oil rose $2.26 to settle at a record $128.98 after hitting a new intra-day trading record of $129.10 a barrel earlier in the session.

Chart 1.1 – Light sweet crude oil index (daily).

In fact, today's trading action had confirmed the validity of the "test of an important sentiment 130 level" hypothesis that we've offered a couple days ago when we wrote that: "prices' basing sideway near high as the market works off the overbought condition. The action is bullish and suggesting that there is a pretty good chance that we'll see a test of an important sentiment 130 level in the days ahead."

Technically speaking, Tuesday's bullish breakout had cleared the one-week congestion pattern and helped setting the stage for an upward push above the important sentiment 130 level. In addition, the MACD indicator is also trending above its signal line, and hence, confirms the bullish trend. At this juncture, only a sustain decline below last week's low at 122.60 can wreck the near-term bullish outlook.

Crude's jump pushed the Dow Jones transport, which posted an all time high Monday, lower – down 0.79%. Though it worth notice that, shares of Pacer International Inc (PACR) bucks the overall trend, up 1% for the day. The gain, while small, is pretty bullish given the overall pessimism surrounding transport stocks. It's indicating that there is a pretty good dose of optimism in the stock.

Chart 1.2 – Pacer International Inc (daily).

Initially profiled in May 01 "Swing trader bulletin", shares of the air delivery & freight services provider has appreciated more than 7% and remains well position. From a technical point of view, we really like the trading action in the past couple of days – price climbs steadily above the one-month congestion area after a pullback to support at the area of January trend-line was met with a new wave of buying enthusiasm. In addition, recent MACD indicator bullish crossover also strengthens the bull case – the MACD had not only crossed above its signal line but also trending above the zero line and hence, confirmed the bullish trend. The best case scenario would be an upward push to the area of last August' high, about 22. This, if hurdle and sustain, will increase the probability for a test of the long-term overhead supply at the area of last February's bearish breakdown gap, about 30.

Financial stocks were underselling pressure Tuesday after the highly influential Oppenheimer's Meredith Whitney opined that the credit crisis will extend into 2009. The KBW bank index dropped 2.33% as a result.

Chart 1.3 – KBW bank index (daily).

It seems to us that the sector is heading back to the critical support around the 75 area. Also, the bearish MACD crossover appeared to favor the bear case. Right now the most obvious level to watch is, of course, the 75 level. This, if violates, will trigger all sorts of stops, hence, has the potential to push prices into the area of 2003 low, about 65. The breakdown, if and when it comes, shall take the board market down with it. Key resistance is at the area of May high, about 89.

Bad news surrounding financial stocks dragged down the S&P 500 – after all, it comprises 16.5% of the board market index.

Chart 1.4 – S&P 500 index (daily).

The index printed an evening star pattern at the area of key resistance (see chart). This is very bearish and indicating a change in the direction of the trend. Right now, we'll be watching the May 09^th low at 1384. As mentioned, a walk below this level will push prices directly into the 50-day moving average. And this, if violates, will put an end to the eight-week recovery rally.

In summary: there is no need to sugar coating it Tuesday's trading action is outright bearish and suggesting further prices weaknesses in the next two to five trading sessions.

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It's now available at a monthly rate.

大盤或進一步走低

這是Capital Essence對2008年5月21日(週三)的市場技術分析。

昨天美股開盤即出現下跌，道指低收近200點。事實上，昨天大盤的走勢同我們在昨天的市場前瞻中提出的"轉跌"判斷十分吻合。

導致昨天大盤走軟的因素一是能源價格再上新高，二是金融股的負面新聞，三是高於預期的核心通脹數字。

昨天美國輕質低硫原油一度沖高至每桶129.10美元，最後收於128.98美元的收盤新高，上漲2.26美元。

圖1.1 輕質低硫原油指數(日線圖)

事實上，昨天原油的走勢確認了我們數天前提出的"測試130美元重要心理關口"的判斷的有效性，我們當時寫道："價格在高位進行整固，對超買局面進行消化。這一走勢是看漲的，意味著未來數天油價很有可能測試130美元的重要心理關口。"

從技術上講，週二的發力上攻突破了一周來的整理區間，為下一步站上130美元的重要關口打下了基礎。另外，MACD指標同樣高於信號線，確認了看漲的走勢。在目前關頭，只有堅定跌破122.60美元的上周低點，才能逆轉近期看漲的態勢。

原油價格的大漲將道瓊斯運輸指數從週一創出的歷史新高拉下0.79%。不過值得注意的是，昨天Pacer International(PACR)逆市上揚，上漲1%。儘管漲幅不大，但是考慮到整個運輸板塊的普跌局面，該股的走勢仍是非常有利的，說明投資者對該股的樂觀情緒比較重。

圖1.2 Pacer International(日線圖)

自從我們在5月1日的Swing trader bulletin中對該運輸和物流服務提供商作出推薦以來，迄今漲幅已經超過7%，而且還有上漲空間。從技術上講，我們非常喜歡該股過去幾個交易日的走勢 ——價格回調至1月份開始的上升趨勢線支撐時迎來強勁買盤，隨後穩步攀升、突破一個月來的運行區間。另外，近期MACD指標交叉至信號線上方(金叉)並高於零線，這也確認了上漲的趨勢。該股最好的情況是一路上攻至去年8月高點區域，大約22美元。如果這一阻力被有效突破，將增加測試去年2月向下跳空缺口處長期上檔供給位的可能性，大約30美元。

週二金融股遭遇賣壓，原因是Oppenheimer知名分析師梅雷迪斯-惠特尼(Meredith Whitney)認為信貸危機將持續到2009年。KBW銀行指數下跌2.33%。

圖1.3 KBW銀行指數(日線圖)

看起來，銀行板塊似乎正在返回75點附近的關鍵支撐位。同時，MACD指標出現死叉，也支持看跌的判斷。目前最應該關注的位置顯然是75點，如果這一支撐被洞穿，將觸發大量止損，從而有可能將價格打壓至2003年低點區域，大約65點。如果銀行板塊最終向下突破，必將拖累大盤下行。關鍵阻力位在 5月高點，大約89點。

金融股的負面消息拖累了標普，畢竟金融股在標普500中的權重高達16.5%。

圖1.4 標普500指數(日線圖)

指數在關鍵阻力位處收出了一根"黃昏之星"(Evening Star)燭線，這是一個嚴重看跌的信號，預示著趨勢的反轉。目前我們應該關注5月9日低點，1384點。我們提到過，標普若跌破該支撐將進一步滑向50 日均線，而50日線一旦失守，將宣告8周來這一波上漲行情的終結。

總結：毋庸諱言，週二大盤的走勢非常不利，預示著未來2到5個交易日還將進一步走低。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。

Tuesday, May 20, 2008

Turnaround Tuesday

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Tuesday May 20, 2008.

We've noted right here in the previous Market Outlook that: "it seems to us that the eight-week recovery rally is now getting heavy. However, unless there is a headline that everyone recognizes as extremely bearish, there is a pretty good chance that this bear-market rally will continue to go on for awhile longer." Stocks opened on a positive note Monday with the S&P 500 hit a five-month high amid a stronger-than-expected economic indicators report. The market, however, struggled in the afternoon on record commodity prices.

With regard to commodities, U.S. light crude oil for June delivery rose 76 cents to settle at a record $127.05 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after hitting an all-time trading high of $127.82 a barrel Friday. Gold added $3.50 or 0.39% to settle at $904.80.

Chart 1.1 – World gold index (daily).

The yellow metal rallied directly into the area of 50-day moving average after the test of support at the area of 200-day moving average was met with an aggressive wave of buying interest. As a matter of fact, recent trading action was pretty consistent to the "technical rebound" scenario that we've offered right here a couple week ago when we wrote that: "price pullback to key support at the area of 200-day moving average. Not only that this is a strong support, in fact this is the area where bargain hunters often place their bets, the RSI indicator is also indicating an extreme oversold condition – a situation that precursor to a meaningful technical rebound. That being said, recent sell-off seems to be overdone and this will eventually trigger a major buying opportunity." As you can see, the yellow metal has gained about 50 points immediately followed our positive comment.

However, with the short-term RSI indicator is fast approaching the overbought level as prices rallied directly into the area of 50-day moving average, it seems to us that the stage had been set for a pullback consolidation. That being said, while we've became aggressively bullish at the downside re-test of 200-day moving average in early May, believing that the test would be successful, we've, regrettably, turned cautious now.

Speaking of gold, shares of Yamana Gold Inc (AUY) added on to last week's strong gain, up 1.26% for the day. Initially profiled in May 02 "Swing Trader Bulletin", AUY gains more than +17% and remains well position.

Chart 1.2 – Yamana Gold Inc (daily).

From a technical point of view, we really like the trading action in the past couple of days - a modest pullback to minor support around the $14 level followed by an upside thrust directly into the area of key resistance. Right now, the most obvious level to watch is today's high at $15.49. This, if hurdle and sustained, will complete the bullish inverse Head-Shoulder pattern, hence, has the potential to fuel an acceleration run toward March's high, about $20. In short, the near-term outlook remains bullish barring a close below last week's low at $13.80.

Negative headlines surrounding financial stocks - Goldman Sachs (GS), Morgan Stanley (MS) and Lehman Brothers (LEH) all lost about 2% after having their second quarter earnings estimates cut at Citigroup (C) – dragged down the board market. The S&P 500 index, which rose as much as 1% in early Monday session, ended the day near the zero line.

Chart 1.3 – S&P 500 index (daily).

Last week we've said that: "while Thursday's trading action is bullish and indicating that the market is ready for an upward push above the 200-day moving average, trading volume didn't seem supporting the underlying advance. This is a bearish relationship and suggesting that the rally might not sustain." As we saw, they did exactly that – almost immediately followed the early panic buying that took the S&P above the 200-day moving average, the bears stepped in and pushed the index back under the 200-day MA (see chart). The index printed an ugly bearish shooting star candlestick on the daily chart as a result. In addition, the short-term RSI indicator is also indicating an extreme overbought condition. Right now, follow-through is the key. We'll be watching the 1420 level. This, if violate, will trigger a large-scale sell-off that has the potential to push prices directly into the area of May 09^th low at 1384, then the 50-day moving average afterward. At this juncture, only sustain advance above today high at 1440.24 can wreck the short-term bearish outlook.

In summary: it seems to us that Monday's bearish trading action had helped setting the stage for a turnaround Tuesday. However, unless the bears manage to push prices below S&P 1384, the upcoming correction is merely a consolidation that would eventually trigger a major buying opportunity.

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

美股今日將轉跌

這是Capital Essence對2008年5月20日(週二)的市場技術分析。

在昨天的市場前瞻中我們提到："在我們看來，大盤八周來的這一輪反彈行情步履已經十分『沉重』。不過，除非出現非常負面的重大利空消息，這一輪熊市反彈行情仍很有可能再堅持一會兒。"受一份好於預期的經濟報告的推動，週一美股高開，其中標普上摸5個月來最高點。不過下午隨著大宗商品繼續創出新高，股市沖高回落。

商品方面，紐約商業交易所6月份交割的美國輕質低硫原油期貨價格上週五盤中沖高至每桶127.82美元的歷史新高之後，昨天創出每桶127.05美元的收盤紀錄，上漲76美分。黃金上漲3.50美元，收於每盎司904.80美元，漲幅0.39%。

圖1.1 世界黃金指數(日線圖)

黃金在測試200日線支撐之後迎來強勁買盤，已經一路上攻至50日均線的關鍵阻力位。事實上，黃金的走勢同我們在兩周前的的市場前瞻中提出的 "技術反彈" 的判斷非常吻合，我們當時提到："金價近期的回調走勢已經使得價格逼近200日均線區域。200日線是一個強大的支撐位，而且很多投資者都會等著在這裡抄底，另外相對強弱指標(RSI)也顯示嚴重超賣，因此接下來很可能出現一波強勁的技術反彈。由此來看，最近的拋盤已經有些矯枉過正，最終會觸發獲利空間巨大的買入機會。"我們可以看到，自從我們作出看漲評論以來，金價已經上漲約50個點。

不過，隨著價格攻至50日均線，短期相對強弱指標(RSI)已經快速接近超賣，因此接下來很可能出現一波回調整理行情。總而言之，儘管5月初金價重新測試200日均線的時候我們極力看漲，不過很遺憾，現在我們的態度轉為謹慎了。

說到黃金，昨天Yamana Gold Inc(AUY)繼續上周的強勁攻勢，上漲1.26%。自從我們最早在5月2日的Swing Trader Bulletin中對該股作出推薦以來，迄今已經上漲超過17%，而且依然有上漲空間。

圖1.2 Yamana Gold(日線圖)

從技術上講，我們非常喜歡該股過去幾個交易日的形態，股價小幅回調至14美元左右的次要支撐位之後強力上攻，目前已經觸到關鍵阻力位。目前最應該關注的位置是昨日高點(15.49美元)，如果這一位置被有效突破，將形成一個看漲的"頭肩底"形態，從而有可能使價格加速朝3月高點進發，大約20美元。總而言之，除非接下來收盤跌破13.80美元的上周低點，近期走勢依然看漲。

昨天，花旗集團(C)調降了高盛(GS)、摩根士丹利(MS)和雷曼兄弟(LEH)等大型金融公司第二財季盈利預期，上述金融股昨天均下跌2%左右。金融股的不利走勢拖累了大盤，標普500指數昨日盤中一度上漲1%，但最後收於平盤點位附近。

圖1.3 標普500指數(日線圖)

上週五我們在評論中提到："昨天的走勢對後市是有利的，意味著市場已經準備好向200日均線的關鍵阻力發起攻擊，不過成交量並不支持這一可能走勢。價量關係不太有利，說明上漲動能難以持續。"我們可以看到，昨天標普的走勢同我們的判斷如出一轍，早盤標普站上200日線之後立即迎來強勁買盤，但隨後空頭大舉入場，將指數拉回200日線下方，收出一根不利的射擊之星(Shooting Star) 燭線。另外，短期相對強弱指標(RSI)也顯示嚴重超買的局面。目前，大盤應該會繼續下跌動能。我們將會關注1420點的位置，如果被突破，將激發大面積拋盤，從而有可能將股指推向5月9日低點(1384點)，然後是50日均線。在當前形勢下，只有有效站上1440.24點的昨日高點，才能逆轉短期看跌的態勢。

總結：昨天的行情是一個看跌信號，在我們看來，今天大盤有可能開始由升轉跌。不過，除非空頭成功將標普打壓至1384點下方，否則接下來的回調可能只是一波整理行情，並最終激發強勁的做多意願。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

美股今日將轉跌

這是Capital Essence對2008年5月20日(週二)的市場技術分析。

圖1.1 世界黃金指數(日線圖)

圖1.2 Yamana Gold(日線圖)

圖1.3 標普500指數(日線圖)

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

The rally is now getting heavy

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Monday May 19, 2008.

Stocks finished around the unchanged mark Friday. Though do not let the flat tape fool you, Friday trading action was pretty bullish considering that the S&P 500 ending Friday session at a more than 4-month high – the board market index up in four out of five trading sessions last week in a face of a record high energy prices.

U.S. light crude oil rallied $2.19 to close at $126.04 a barrel, after hitting an all-time intraday high of $127.30 earlier.

Chart 1.1 – Light sweet crude oil index (daily).

Technically speaking, today's bullish breakout above the one-week consolidation pattern had confirmed the validity of the "test of an important sentiment 130 level" hypothesis that we've offered right here in the previous Market Outlook when we wrote that: "price is basing sideway near high as it works off the overbought condition. The action is bullish and suggesting that there is a pretty good chance that we'll see a test of an important sentiment 130 level in the days ahead." In short, the near term outlook remains bullish barring a close below last week's low at 122.60. This, if violates, will have the potential to push prices into the area of immediate support at the area of April's high, about 117; then the February trend-line, now at 115, afterward.

Speaking of energy, James River Coal Company (JRCC) made a very nice move Friday closing up nearly 7% for the session.

Chart 1.2 – James River Coal Company (daily).

Initially profiled in March 26 "Swing Trader Bulletin", JRCC has gained more than +120% and remains well positioned. From a technical point of view, we really like the trading action in the past couple of weeks – trading volume surge as prices cut through important resistance levels. This has been a great setup for a test of the all-time high set on September 2005 at $52.56. Support is at the area of April's high, about $26.75.

Despite the better-than-expected earnings results for the most recent quarter from several popular retailers like Nordstrom (JWN), Kohl's (KSS), and Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), retail stocks were underselling pressure Friday. The S&P 500 Retail Index ended the session 1.09% lower.

Chart 1.3 – S&P 500 Retail Index (daily).

Price retreated slightly after the test of the ten-month falling trend-line was met with a new wave of selling interest. Not only that this is a tough level to overcome, the short-term RSI indicator also indicating that the sector is pretty much overbought; so it wouldn't surprise us to see a retest of support at the area of the monthly's low, about 390. This, if violates, will put an end to the March's recovery rally and increase an odds for a retest of critical support at the area of March's low, about 362.

One of the more actively traded shares in the IPO market was Titan Machinery Inc (TITN). Shares of the agricultural and construction equipment retailer jumped almost 11% Friday on explosive volume.

Chart 1.4 – Titan Machinery Inc (daily).

Initially profiled in our May 13 "Swing trader bulletin", Titan has gained about +17%b and remains well position. Technically speaking, Friday's bullish breakout had helped setting the stage for a test of April's high at $24.50. This, if hurdle and sustained, will trigger an acceleration run into the uncharted territory. At this juncture, only a close below May 01^st low at $17.59 can wreck the near-term bullish outlook.

US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, speaking Friday afternoon, said that "we are closer to the end of the market turmoil than the beginning" regarding to the current financial market turmoil. Still, financial stocks were underselling pressure Friday. The KBW bank index lost 2.26% to finish at 80.73.

Chart 1.5 – KBW bank index (daily).

Prices continue basing sideway near support at the area of the weekly's low. The medium-term RSI indicator is also fast approaching the oversold level. So it wouldn't surprise us to see some aggressive buying activities around the area of April's 24^th low at 78.63. Although bear in mind that a failure to hold above this level will trigger a large-scale sell-off that has the potential to push prices back into the area of critical support around the 75 level.

Despite the negative sentiment in the financials stocks and another spike in oil prices that nearly carried crude to nearly $128 a barrel, equities shook off late-day weakness to finish around the flat line. The S&P 500 index up 0.13%.

Chart 1.6 – S&P 500 index (daily).

As expected, the market tried to move higher though still, it's unable to take out the 200-day moving average. Again, not only that this is a tough level to overcome, the short-term RSI indicator is also indicating that the market is pretty much overbought. So it wouldn't surprise us to see a retest of immediate support at the area of last week's low, about 1384, in the days ahead. This, if violates, will increase the odds for a retest of key support at the area of the 50-day moving average, about 1350.

In summary: it seems to us that the eight-week recovery rally is now getting "heavy". However, unless there is a headline that everyone recognizes as extremely bearish, there is a pretty good chance that this bear-market rally will continue to go on for awhile longer. From a long-term perspective, until we see a positive turnaround in the financial and retail complexes, the bears still have a benefit of the doubts.

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

大盤上行動能不足

這是Capital Essence對2008年5月19日(週一)的市場技術分析。

上週五美股基本不漲不跌。不過不要被平收的結果所欺騙，上週五的行情事實上是非常有利的，因為收盤標普站上了4個多月來的最高點，而且儘管能源價格不斷創出新高，標普上週五個交易日有四天出現上漲。

上週五美國輕質原油價格盤中上摸127.30美元的歷史高點，最後收於每桶126.04美元，上漲2.19美元。

圖1.1 輕質低硫原油指數(日線圖)

從技術上講，上週五突破一周來整理區間的走勢是非常有利的，並確認了我們在上週五的市場前瞻中提出的"測試130美元重要心理關口" 判斷的有效性，我們當時寫道："原油價格繼續高位盤整，並慢慢走出超買區域。這一走勢是看漲的，未來數天油價測試130美元重要心理關口的可能性非常大。"總而言之，除非油價收盤跌破122.60美元的上周低點，近期走勢依然看漲。如果跌破上周低點，產生的下跌動能有可能將價格打壓至4月高點區域的緊鄰支撐位，大約117美元，下一個重要支撐位是2月份開始的上升趨勢線，目前位於115美元。

能源股方面，James River Coal Company(JRCC)上週五走勢非常強勁，漲幅接近7%。

圖1.2 James River Coal Company(日線圖)

自從我們最早在3月26日的Swing Trader Bulletin中對JRCC作出推薦以來，該股漲幅已經超過120%，而且仍有上漲空間。從技術形態來看，過去兩周的走勢非常有利，價格強力攻佔重要阻力位，同時量能大幅放大。目前該股已經準備好向上測試2005年9月的歷史高點，位於52.56美元。支撐位在4月高點附近，大約26.75點。

儘管幾大主要零售商Nordstrom(JWN)、Kohl's (KSS)和Abercrombie & Fitch(ANF)等最近季度盈利狀況好於市場預期，但上週五零售股依然遭遇賣壓。標普500零售指數低收1.09%。

圖1.3 標普500零售指數(日線圖)

零售指數在測試10個月下降趨勢線的時候遭遇新一輪賣壓，價格出現小幅回調。不但該趨勢線是一個易守難攻的阻力位，而且短期相對強弱指標 (RSI)也顯示板塊已經嚴重超買，因此接下來指數出現向下測試本月低點(大約390點)的走勢是不足為奇的。如果該低點支撐失守，板塊從3月份開始的反彈行情將宣告終結，並增加重新測試3月低點關鍵支撐的可能性，大約362點。

上週五IPO市場上交易最活躍的一隻股票是中國的農業和建築設備零售商Titan Machinery(TITN)。該股上週五成交量放出天量，價格大漲11%以上。

圖1.4 Titan Machinery(日線圖)

我們最早在5月13日的Swing trader bulletin中對該股作出了推薦，迄今漲幅已經達到17%左右，而且仍有上漲空間。從技術上講，上週五的強勁飆升為接下來測試4月高點阻力打下了基礎，大約24.50美元。如果有效突破這一位置，可能會加速上攻至上方無人地帶。就目前而言，只有收盤跌破5月1日低點，才有可能逆轉近期的看漲態勢。

上週五下午，美國財長亨利-保爾森在談到金融市場形勢的時候說道："金融動盪的局面已經接近尾聲，而不是開始。"不過上週五金融股仍迎來強勁拋盤，KBW銀行指數大跌2.26%，收於80.73點。

圖1.5 KBW銀行指數(日線圖)

銀行指數繼續在一周來低點支撐附近橫向整固。中期相對強弱指標(RSI)同樣快速接近超賣水平。因此在78.63點的4月24日低點附近迎來強力買盤是不足為奇的。不過我們需要注意，如果指數未能守住這一位置，必將觸發大面積拋盤，從而有可能將價格推向75點附近的關鍵支撐區域。

儘管金融股全線殺跌、油價攀高至接近每桶128美元的高位，大盤還是成功收復了早盤的失地，收於平盤點位。標普500指數上漲0.13%。

圖1.6 標普500指數(日線圖)

恰如我們所料，市場仍在試圖上攻，不過始終無法攻佔200日線的強大阻力。不但這一阻力易守難攻，而且短期相對強弱指標(RSI)也顯示嚴重超買，因此未來數天標普很有可能重新測試1384點的上周低點支撐。如果這一支撐被擊穿，將增加重新測試50日均線關鍵支撐區域的可能性，大約1350點。

總結：在我們看來，大盤八周來的這一輪反彈行情步履已經十分"沉重"。不過，除非出現非常負面的重大利空消息，這一輪熊市反彈行情仍很有可能再堅持一會兒。從長期來看，除非金融股和零售股出現回暖，否則空頭仍佔據著主導權。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

Another week, another victory

Market is everything but quiet in the past couple of days and we think this is a good time for a quick review.

Initially profiled in March 26 "Swing Trader Bulletin", James River Coal Company (JRCC) has gained more than +120% and remains well positioned.

Actually, we really like the action over the past few weeks – volume picked up as prices cut through key resistance (see chart). As mentioned, we're still bullish on JRCC and expecting the stock to trend higher.

Shares of China Financial Online (JRJC) rose more than +18% today on massive volume. The stock had gains about 40% since profiled in April 25 "Swing Trader Bulletin" as a potential buy candidate.

One of the more actively traded shares in the IPO market was Titan Machinery Inc (TITN). The stock jumped more than 10% today on explosive volume.

As you can see, TITN gains about +17% in just 3 days after profiled in May 13 "Swing Trader Bulletin" as a potential buy candidate. Today's bullish breakout had helped setting the stage for an acceleration run into the uncharted territory.

Other winning trades included:

Big Lots Inc (BIG) set up on April 15, 2008. The position gains more than 30% in about a month.
Lsb Industries Inc (LXU) up about +23% since set up in March 25, 2008.
Yamana Gold Inc (AUY) set up on May 02, 2008. The position gains about +16% in about 10 days.
Fording Canadian Coal (FDG) set up on May 05, 2008. The position gains about +14% in just 2 weeks.
Metropcs Communication Inc (PCS) profiled on May 12, 2008. The stock gains about +10% in a week.
Del Monte Foods Co (DLM) up about +9% since set up in April 30, 2008.

These are just couples of many successful trades that our member had enjoyed recently. After all, aren't you glad you subscribed?

P.S. Take advantage of the 30 days special trial [new member only]. Join hundred others receiving these daily trading ideas by click here to subscribe.

Friday, May 16, 2008

S&P seems poised for an upward push above the 200-day moving average

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Friday May 16, 2008.

As expected, stocks spent Thursday's morning trading around the zero line though a pullback in crude oil sparked a strong recovery rally in the afternoon with a majority of major indices up more than 1%.

U.S. light crude oil fell 26 cents to settle at $123.85 a barrel in a volatile session - crude traded as high as $125.70 per barrel, near its all time record high set last week.

Chart 1.1 – Light sweet crude oil index (daily).

Price continues basing sideway near high as it works off the overbought condition. The action is bullish and suggesting that there is a pretty good chance that we'll see a test of an important sentiment 130 level in the days ahead. Key support is at the area of April's high, about 117.

Tech stocks attracted some strong buying interest Thursday with the NASDAQ composite index rose 1.48% to finish at 2533.

Chart 1.2 – NASDAQ composite index (daily).

The main event here is a climb above the 200-day moving average on strong volume. The action is bullish and helped setting the stage for a test of key resistance at the area of January's bearish breakdown gap, about 2570. Immediate support is at the area of last week's low, about 2430.

Speaking of tech, shares of MetroPCS Communications Inc. (PCS) jumped 5.50% on explosive volume.

Chart 1.3 – MetroPCS Communications Inc. (daily).

Initially profiled in our May 12 "Swing trader bulletin" share of the wireless communications provider gains more than 7% and remained well position. Technically speaking, today's bullish breakout had helped setting the stage for a test of key resistance around the 22.70-24 area. Immediate support is at the 50-day moving average, about 18.50.

The drop in energy prices gave stocks a nice boost with the S&P 500 index gained about 15 points or 1.06% to close at 1423.

Chart 1.4 – S&P 500 index (daily).

The board market index claimed a new four-month high today. While today's trading action is bullish and indicating that the market is ready for an upward push above the 200-day moving average, trading volume didn't seem supporting the underlying advance. This is a bearish relationship and suggesting that the rally might not sustain. Immediate support is at the area of last week's low, about 1384.

In summary: Thursday's bullish trading action had helped setting the stage for an upward push above the S&P 200-day moving average. Unless the break of resistance happens on a big volume surge, the breakout might not sustain. As usual, we must stress out that tomorrow is the options expiration day, which is the most volatile trading session of the month, so you've got to watch-out for fake-head, or false price breakout.

Until next time, good luck.
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)