Wednesday, December 19, 2007

技術前瞻：期待聖誕老人的禮物

Editor's note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence's CEM News on December 18, 2007. It's being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.
 
這是Capital Essence對2007年12月19日 (週三) 的市場技術分析。
昨天大盤經歷一輪過山車行情後出現上漲，高盛和百思買強勁的盈利利好抵消了市場對信貸市場危機的憂慮。昨天道瓊斯工業平均指數上漲0.5%，午盤曾 一度下跌75點，最高漲幅超過100點。標普500指數高收0.6%。納斯達克綜合指數上漲0.8%。昨天小型股成了領漲大盤的主力，羅素2000指數漲 幅超過2%。
russell_20071218
圖 1.1 羅素2000指數(日線圖)
昨天羅素2000指數成功測試8月和11月低點形成的支撐，這是十分有利的。今日如果股指繼續上揚，將增加向上測試11月高點的可能，大約在790點。在目前的關鍵位置，只有股指跌破730點才會導致圖形破位，並引發進一步下跌。
spx_20071218
圖1.2 標普500指數(日線圖)
昨天股指成功測試1430點附近的11月末跳空區域支撐。從技術上講，昨天的價格走勢為向上測試1490-1500點附近的雙重阻力位作好了準備。支撐區域在1430-1400。
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圖1.3 道瓊斯工業平均指數(日線圖)
我們應該注意到，儘管道指昨天大幅拉高，但依然低於200日均線，形勢並非特別有利。在這樣的情況下，除非多頭成功佔領該均線，否則後市機會不大。阻力位在13340點附近。支撐位在11月低點12700點附近。
總結：總的來說，股市出現了一些好的跡象。我們認為股市不會再出現大的深跌，一貫的聖誕節期反彈依然值得期待。
 
(本文作者：Michelle Mai)
注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。
 
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Santa rally is still in full swing

Editor's note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence's CEM News on December 18, 2007. It's being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.
 
Good Morning. This is Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Wednesday December 19, 2007.
Stocks finished higher Tuesday, a roller coaster session that saw strong earnings from Goldman Sachs and Best Buy offset by the ongoing concerns about credit market crisis. For the day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.5% - the blue-chip index was down about -75 points at its low of the day and up more than +100 points at its peak. The broader S&P 500 Index added 0.6%. The tech-rich NASDAQ Composite gained 0.8%. Small caps led Tuesday advance with the Russell 2000 Index rose more than 2%.
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Chart 1.1: Russell 2000 Index (daily).
Key support at the August/November's low was tested and held. This is bullish. An upside follow-through tomorrow will increase the probability for a test of December's high, about 790. At this juncture, only a sustain decline below the 730 level can wreck the positive development and argue for lower prices.
spx_20071218
Chart 1.2: Standard & Poors 500 Index (daily).
The index tested and held above the late November's gap support around the 1430 area. Technically speaking, Tuesday's trading action had set the stage for a test of the double resistant around the 1490-1500 level. Support is around 1430-1400.
dow_20071218
Chart 1.3: Dow Jones Industrial Average (daily).
It should be noted that despite Tuesday's flip, the blue-chips index is still traded below the 200-day moving average. This doesn't look very good. With that said, until the bulls manage to take out this level, things remain poor looking forward. Resistant is about 13340. Support is around the area of November's low, about 12700.
In summary: general speaking, there were some sort of positive development in equities. While we are not looking for a big, bold bottom, we'd say that the tradition Santa rally is still in full swing.
 
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)
Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It's now available at a monthly rate.
 
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