技術前瞻：多頭姑且佔據主動

Editor's note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence's CEM News. It's being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

 

這是Capital Essence對2007年11月26日 (週一) 的市場技術分析。

正如我們在之前的"Cubes Speculator Bulletin"中預測的那樣，"[週三的交易狀況]相當振奮人心。它表明股市理應出現一次有實質意義的反彈。"上週五美股大幅高收，標普500指數又重新回復到年初至今的上漲區域。當日交易的任何看漲期權都能獲得至少30%的收益。

圖1.1：標普500指數(周線圖)

該指數已經回調至長期上升趨勢線的支撐位置。從技術面來看，只要股價能保持在這一支撐位的上方，多頭就不會遇到任何嚴重的困難。1400-1360點是該指數的一層重要支撐位。阻力位約為1480-1500點。

圖1.2：道瓊斯工業平均指數(周線圖)

和標普500指數相似，道指也已經回調到了長期上升趨勢線的支撐位置。如前所述，只要股價能守在該支撐位上方，投資者就無需過多擔憂。支撐位約為12800點。阻力位約為13200-13500點。

圖1.3：羅素2000指數(周線圖)

和其他股指類似，羅素2000小型股指數也正在長期趨勢線的支撐位置運行。我們說過，只要能守在736點水平之上，空頭就沒有任何機會。阻力位約為780-800點。

總結：上述圖表並沒有多少跡象表明當前的下跌趨勢將要很快結束。但是，當我們向預計的強勁銷售季節邁進的時候，標普500成分股的平均股價距10月高點仍有近10%的差幅，因此多頭還是默認的主動方。

 

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

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注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。

 

The bulls should be given the benefit of the doubts

Editor's note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence's CEM News. It's being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

 

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Monday November 26, 2007.

As we've predicted right here in the previous "Cubes Speculator Bulletin" that: "[Wednesday trading action was] pretty encouraging.  It suggested that stocks could be due to a meaningful bounce", stocks finished significantly higher last Friday that saw the S&P 500 recovered into positive territory year-to-date.  Any call options traded could have earned at least +30% intraday.

Chart 1.1: Standard & Poors 500 Index (weekly). 

The board market index had pulled back to support at the area of the long-term rising trendline. Technically speaking, the bulls won't get into any serious trouble as long as prices hold above this level.  The index has an important layer of support that runs from 1400 to 1360.   Resistant is about 1480-1500.

Chart 1.2: Dow Jones Industrial (weekly). 

Similar to the S&P 500, the blue-chips index had also pulled back to support at the area of the long-term rising trendline.  As noted above, investors shouldn't be worry too much as long as prices hold above this level.  Support is about 12800.   Resistant is about 13200-13500.

Chart 1.3: Russell 2000 Index (weekly). 

Similar to its peers, the small caps index is also trading at the area of long-term trendline support.  As mentioned, the bears won't have any cases as long as prices hold above the 736 level. Resistant is about 780-800.

In summary: there is little evidence on the charts to say that the current downleg is going to end soon.  However, with an average price of the stocks in the broad S&P 500 index was off nearly 10% from its October's high as we're heading into the supposedly strong seasonal period, the bulls should be given the benefit of the doubts.

 

(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

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Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It's now available at a monthly rate.