Friday, November 02, 2007

Market rebound, EHTH rock (+26%)

Editor's Note: below are just some trading ideas flow from our latest Headlines.

"Cubes Speculator Bulletin":
November 01, 2007 @ 8:40 PM:
  • Market is conditioned to a "mini" bounce…
November 02, 2007 @ 1:00 PM:
  • The Q's is printing a fresh intraday high as I type [$54.55]…You might have seen the high without even noticing it.
NewsDesk_QQQQ_20071102
As predicted, the Q's closed higher for the day +$0.42 - though slightly below the intraday low printed around noon - after the weak opening was met with an aggressive wave of buying interest that sent the Q's to as high as $54.55. Any Call Option traded should have earned about +30% intraday.
"Swing Trader Bulletin":
October 30, 2007:
  • Long: EHTH.
  • Ehealth Inc (EHTH) recent pullback found support at previous bullish breakout point. EHTH seems to have the potential to resume the strong uptrend. We'll be a buyer around $26. Stop: around $2xxx. Target: $2xxx. Risk Rating: 3.
NewsDesk_EHTH_20071102
As you can see, despite the overall weakness, Ehealth Inc (EHTH) jumped about +16% today on huge volume. This is very bullish. Our long position is holding an amazing gain of +26% in just 3 days
 
At Capital Essence, we target sudden profits, typically stocks that we can swing in and out for a quick 10-50% and 100-500% for options.
Want more investing ideas? Check out Capital Essence's Newsletter Services - "best-of-web" technical analysis.
 
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技術前瞻：空頭來襲

Editor's note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence's CEM News on November 01, 2007. It's being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.
 
這是Capital Essence對2007年11月2日 (週五) 的市場技術分析。
我們在前天的"Cubes Speculator Bulletin" 中指出："廣度指標繼續與價格背離……這不是一次健康的反彈。這樣的負面背離往往會隨著價格的走低而消散，而不是相反。"果然，週四股市出現急劇拋賣，道 指暴跌362點，跌幅2.6%，創10月19日以來單日最大跌幅，也是本年度道指第四大跌幅。標普500指數下跌2.6%，科技股為主的納指損失近 2.3%。花旗集團(C)股票評級被調降，埃克森美孚(XOM)財報不盡如人意以及下滑的ISM指數等消息造成了股市的整體疲軟。
bkx_20071101
在花旗集團利空消息的打壓下，銀行股指數下滑5.38%，領跌大盤。圖中可以看出，銀行股指數(BKX)輕而易舉地從8月低點支撐位處滑了下來。這當然是看跌的信號。正如我們在7月18日和8月6日所說的那樣："金融股正進入一個長期的熊市……機會將繼續傾向空頭一方。"大家都知道，自我們對金融股做出看跌評論之後，該指數的累計跌幅已達15%。該指數在92點位置附近存在強有力的支撐。阻力位約為106點。
來看主要股指：
spx_20071101
上面是標普500指數的短期日線圖。銀行股怎麼走，大盤就怎麼跟。由於信貸擔憂再次出現，標普500指數果斷跌破了長達兩週的上升趨勢線的短期阻力位。這是糟糕的表現。支撐位為200日均線，約1475點位置。阻力位約為1545點。
dow_20071101
上面是道指的短期日線圖。和標普500指數類似，該指數同樣下破了長達兩週的上升趨勢線的短期支撐位。這一狀況表明200日均線的支撐位將很快再次受到考驗。支撐位約為13200點。阻力位約為13900點。
總結：週四的盤面表現使空頭佔據了市場的主動。今天大盤繼續下跌將確認這一點。
 
(本文作者：Michelle Mai)
注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。
 
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The bears are back!

Editor's note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence's CEM News on November 01, 2007. It's being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.
 
Good Morning. This is Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Friday November 02, 2007.
We've offered in the previous "Cubes Speculator Bulletin" that: "the breadth indicator continues to diverge from price…this is not a healthy rally. Negative divergence such as this has the tendency to be resolved with prices heading lower, not the other way around" – equity market sold off sharply stocks Thursday with the Dow Jones industrial average finished 362 points, or 2.6 percent, lower, marking its biggest loss since Oct. 19 and the fourth-biggest point decline of the year. The broader S&P 500 index lost 2.6 percent, while the tech-fueled NASDAQ lost nearly 2.3 percent. Contributed to the overall weakness were a downgrade of Citigroup (C), a disappointing earnings report from Exxon Mobil (XOM), and a tame ISM Index reading.
bkx_20071101
Given the negative Citigroup headlines, it was not surprising that the bank index (-5.38%) was the main laggard. As you can see, the Bank Index (BKX) sliced through support at the Augusts' low like hot knife through butter. This is, of course bearish. And as we've said back on July 18 and August 06 "financial stocks are entering a secular bear market…the opportunities will continue to come on the short side". Just so that you know, the BKX dropped about -15% since our bearish comment. The index has a strong support around 92. Resistant is about 106.
Let's take a look at the major indices:
spx_20071101
The S&P 500 Index (daily) chart above addresses a short-term time frame. As goes the bank, so goes the tape. The board market index broke down decisively below the short-term support at the two-week rising trendline amid a renewal credit fears. This is…bad. Support is at the 200-day moving average, about 1475. Resistant is about 1545.
dow_20071101
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (daily) chart above addresses a short-term time frame. Similar to the S&P, the blue chip index also broke down below support at the short-term support at the two-week rising trendline. The action suggested that a retest of support at the 200-day moving average should come sooner rather than later. Support is about 13200. Resistant is about 13900.
Bottom line: Thursday's trading action had put the bears into the driver side of the market. A downside follow through tomorrow will confirm this.
 
Until next time, good luck!
(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)
Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It's now available at a monthly rate.
 
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