技術前瞻：上行通道阻力最小

Editor's note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence's CEM News on October 31, 2007. It's being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

 

這是Capital Essence對2007年11月1日 (週四) 的市場技術分析。

如前所料，聯儲公開市場委員會週三再次降息。聯邦基金利率和貼現率均下調25個基點，分別降至4.50%和5.00%。降息消息推動美股走高。道指 上漲137點，漲幅1%，標普500指數漲幅1.2%，納指上漲1.5%，創下2007年新高。聯儲的利好公告使金價同樣創下收盤新高。

從技術面上看，只要黃金能守在長達三個月的上升趨勢線之上，看漲行情依舊保持不變。自9月7日我們對黃金做過看漲評論之後，黃金已累計上漲100點左右，漲幅14.39%。

來看主要股指：

上面是標普500指數的短期日線圖。週三，該指數放量突破了1545點的短期阻力位。這是看漲的信號。從技術面來看，只要該指數能守在長達兩個月的上升趨勢線之上，多方立場仍將保持不變。目前支撐位約為1500點。阻力位約為1570點。

上面是道指的短期日線圖。從技術面上看，道指昨天的高位收盤將該指數送上了考驗10月高點的有利位置。道指今天若能繼續上揚，這一點將得到確認。目前支撐位約為13700點。阻力位約為14200點。

總結：週三的交易狀況表明阻力最小的通道將為上行。

 

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

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注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。

The path with least resistant is to the upside

Editor's note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence's CEM News on October 31, 2007. It's being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

 

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Thursday November 01, 2007.

As expected, the Federal Open Market Committee did their thing again on Wednesday, cut the fed funds and discount rates by 25 basis points each to 4.50 percent and 5.00 percent, respectively, and hence, driving the market higher. The Dow Jones industrial average added 137 points or 1 percent, while the S&P 500 index added 1.2 percent. The NASDAQ composite added 1.5 percent and ended at a fresh 2007 high. Gold also closed at new high amid the bullish FOMC announcement.

Technically speaking, the bullish scenario remains intact as long as the yellow metal holds above the three-month rising trendline. Just so that you know, gold has gained about 100 points or +14.39% since our September 7 bullish comment.

Let's take a look at the major indices:

The S&P 500 Index (daily) chart above addresses a short-term time frame. The index took out the short-term resistant at 1545 today on good volume. This is bullish. Technically speaking, the bullish bias remains intact as long as the index holds above the two-week rising trendline. Support is about 1500. Resistant is about 1570.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (daily) chart above addresses a short-term time frame. Technically speaking, today high range close had put the blue chip index in a good position for a test of October's high. An upside follow-through tomorrow will confirm this. Support is about 13700. Resistant is about 14200.

Bottom line: Wednesday's trading action suggested that the path with least resistant is to the upside.

 

Until next time, good luck!

(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

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Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It's now available at a monthly rate.