Capital Essence Blog - 錢途集團: Oct 30, 2007

Tuesday, October 30, 2007

技術前瞻：橫盤整理略偏負面

Editor's note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence's CEM News on October 29, 2007. It's being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2007年10月30日 (週二) 的市場技術分析。

如前所料，美股週一小幅攀升，投資者對明天的聯儲市場公開會議公告拭目以待。當日，道指漲幅0.5%，報收13870.26點，標普500指數上漲 0.4%，報收1540.98點。科技股推動納指上漲0.5%，收於2817.44點——這不僅打破了2007年收盤的新紀錄，還創下納指近7年來的最高收盤價位。走弱的美元是整體樂觀情緒的主因。我們在前瞻分析中多次指出：疲軟的美元對股市來說是看漲的信號，因為它不僅能推動跨國公司改善盈利狀況，還可以讓美國出口產品的海外售價變得更為低廉。

來看主要股指：

上面是標普500指數的短期日線圖。該指數繼續運行在由上升趨勢線構成的阻力位下方。這不是很好，在指數突破之前，與大市爭執並沒有什麼好處。我們說過，該指數若不能突破該阻力位，上週低點——約1490點——將再次受到考驗。而站上這一阻力位，10月高點——約1570點——被考驗的可能性將增大。

上面是道指的短期日線圖。和標普500指數相比，道指的表現似乎更為強勢一些。從技術面上看，該指數正處於重新衝上10月高點的有利位置。目前支撐位為上週低點——約13400點。

總結：在週三的聯儲公開市場會議結果宣佈之前，預計股市都會橫向整理，盤面略微偏於負面。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。

Slightly Bias for Tuesday Session

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Tuesday October 30, 2007.

As expected, stock drifted slightly higher Monday as investors await Wednesday's FOMC policy announcement. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed around 0.5% to 13870.26, while the S&P 500 index added 0.4% to 1540.98. The tech-fueled NASDAQ Composite gained 0.5% to end at 2817.44 – a new 2007 record and also its highest close in nearly seven years. Contributed to the overall optimism was a lower dollar. We've noted here a couple of time that a lower greenback (USD) is bullish for the stocks since it boosts earnings of multinational companies and makes U.S. stuffs (exports) cheaper oversea.

Let's take a look at major indices:

The S&P 500 Index (daily) chart above addresses a short-term time frame. The board market index continues to trade beneath the trendline resistant. This is not very good though until prices start to break down; it doesn't pay to argue with the market. As mentioned, a failure to take out this resistant suggests a retest of last week's low about 1490. And an advance above it, meanwhile, will increase the chance for a test of October's high about 1570.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (daily) chart above addresses a short-term time frame. The blue-chips index seems to be stronger than its larger peer, the S&P. Technically speaking, the index is in a good position to run back to October's high. Support is at last week's low about 13400.

Bottom line: expect the market to move sideway with a slight positive bias into Wednesday's FOMC policy announcement.

Until next time, good luck!

(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It's now available at a monthly rate.