Whac-A-Mole: Q’s +36%, BOW +20%

Editor's Note: below are just some trading ideas flow from our latest Headlines.

"Cubes Speculator Bulletin":

October 24, 2007 @ 6:00 PM:

• We have a feeling that the market is setting up for a strong "opening" tomorrow…one of those "whac-a-mole" days [read: sell into strength]…

As predicted, the strong opening was met with an aggressive wave of selling that sent the Q's to as low as $52.75. Any Put Option traded should have earned at least +30% intraday.

By the way, we'd like to congrats Trader John (a "Cubes Speculator Bulletin" subscriber) for his beautiful Sell. This is his morning (Thu, October 25, 2007 10:24 am) confession: "[QQQKA] in $1.39 yesterday, out 2 mins ago at $1.89. Thanks". That was a nice +36% profit in just 1 day. Good trade, buddy!

And also a special thanks to Michelle Mai for her good work as the "Cubes Speculator Bulletin" Editor. Good job – we love you!

 

"Swing Trader Bulletin":

October 18, 2007:

• Long: BOW.
• Bowater Inc (BOW) traded like it wants to go higher from here. We'll be a buyer around $xx. Stop: around $xxxx. Target: $xx; $xx. Risk Rating: 4.

As you can see, despite the overall weakness, Bowater Inc (BOW) jumped almost +4% today on the heel of yesterday +5% gain. Our long position is holding an amazing gain of +20% in less than a week.

At Capital Essence, we target sudden profits, typically stocks that we can swing in and out for a quick 10-50% and 100-500% for options.

 

---

Want more investing ideas? Check out Capital Essence's Newsletter Services - "best-of-web" technical analysis.

技術前瞻：週四盤勢看漲

Editor's note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence's CEM News on October 24, 2007. It's being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2007年10月25日(週四)的市場技術分析。

週三，投資者對亞馬遜財報的消極反應導致科技股遭遇沉重拋壓，納指盤中一度下跌79點。道指和標普500指數也損失慘重，盤中最大跌幅分別為205點和30點。幸運的是，臨近尾盤出現的多方勢力最終將道指和標普500指數成功托至前日收盤點位。

儘管週三大盤整體走弱，但Bowater Inc (BOW)卻大漲5%有餘。自我們在10月18日的"Swing Trader Bulletin"中介紹該股以來，BOW累計漲幅已超過15%。之前，美國司法部有條件地批准了Bowater Inc.和加拿大公司Abitibi-Consolidated Inc.之間的合併事宜。從技術面上看，BOW已做好了上漲的準備。上行目標約為21美元。

科技股週三的表現和我們週二晚間在"Cubes Speculator Bulletin" 文章中的預測相當一致："股市正在為『週三的反轉』做準備……預計『抄底者』會在53美元的價位附近入場。如QQQQ能守住這一支撐位，預計54美元將被 重新考驗。" 不出所料，早盤低開之後，QQQQ跌入53美元區域，在遭遇更為猛烈的買進狂潮之後，該納斯達克100指數ETF(QQQQ)收盤前又重新回到了54美元 水平之上。當日新建倉的QQQQ看漲期權盤中獲益約為30%。

總的來說，只要納斯達克100指數(NDX)能守在長達2個月的上升趨勢線支撐位之上，科技股投資者就不應過分擔心。

上面是標普500指數的短期日線圖。該指數已經再次成功考驗了上週五低點的支撐位。從技術面上看，這是看漲信號。今天該指數的後續表現若仍為上行，看漲信號將得到確認。預計約為1530點的短期阻力位不久將受到考驗。

上面是道指的短期日線圖。和標普500指數相似，昨天，該指數同樣牢牢地站上了上週五的低點。當然，這也是看漲信號。我們說過，道指已經做好準備向上測試上週五跌破的13800點短期阻力位。支撐位約為13400點。

總結：週三的交易狀況表明週四大盤看漲。此外，只要大盤能守在上週五低點的支撐位之上，股市整體走勢依然看漲。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

---

注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。

Bullish Bias for Thursday trading session

Editor's note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence's CEM News on October 24, 2007. It's being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

 

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Thursday October 25, 2007.

The negative response to Amazon's earning report triggered a massive sell-off in the high-flying technology stocks that saw a 79-point drop for the NASDAQ Composite at its lows for Wednesday session. The Dow and S&P suffered considerably, too, decline 205 and 30 points, respectively, at their worst levels. Fortunately, helped by the late-day buying interest, both of the Dow and S&P had managed to get back to around the zero line by the closing bell.

Despite the overall weakness, shares of Bowater Inc (BOW) jumped more than +5% Wednesday, or more than +15% since profiled in our "Swing Trader Bulletin" on October 18, after the U.S. Justice Department conditionally cleared a merger between Bowater Inc. and Canada's Abitibi-Consolidated Inc. Technically speaking, the stock is well position to rise. Upside target is about $21.

Speaking of tech, Wednesday's trading action was pretty consistent to what we've predicted in our Tuesday evening "Cubes Speculator Bulletin": "market is setting up for a "mid-week reversal"…we suspect that "buy-the-dippers" could step in around $53. Expect a retest of the $54 level if the Q's holds this support." As expected, the dip into the $53 zone followed the morning lousy opening was met with an even more aggressive wave of buying interest that sent the NASDAQ 100 Index ETF (QQQQ) back into the $54 level by the end of the day. The newly QQQQ call option setup gained about +30% intraday.

General speaking, tech investors shouldn't worry too much as long as the NASDAQ 100 (NDX) trades above support at the two-month rising trendline.

The S&P 500 Index (daily) chart above addresses a short-term time frame. The index had successfully retested support at last Friday's low. Technically speaking, this is bullish. An upside follow-through tomorrow will confirm this. Expect a test of short-term resistant about 1530 to follow shortly.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (daily) chart above addresses a short-term time frame. Similar to the S&P, the blue-chips index had also held firmly above last Friday's low. Again, this is bullish. As mentioned, the index is well position to test the short-term resistant at last Friday's bearish breakdown point around 13800. Support is about 13400.

In summary, Wednesday's trading action indicated a bullish bias for Thursday trading session. Further, the overall picture remains bullish as long as the market holds above support at last Friday's low.

Until next time, good luck!

(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

---

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It's now available at a monthly rate.