Capital Essence Blog - 錢途集團: Oct 12, 2007

NewsDesk: Market Rebound as expected

Editor's Note: below are just some trading ideas flow from our latest Headlines.

We've offered in the previous Market Outlook "Although admittedly bearish looking, the bulls still have the driver side of the market"; stocks rebounded nicely Friday amid a new wave of buying enthusiasm. The Dow gained +77.96 points to finish at 14,093.08. The S&P rose +7.39 to 1,561.80.

"Cubes Speculator Bulletin"

October 11, 2007 @ 10:00 PM.

The bulls could argue that [Thursday's] decline is taking place within the context of a larger upleg; and hence, you've got a very good deal after all.
Consistent with these thoughts, if the sharpest decline is taken place in the strongest bull market, then this is one heck of a "bull".
Although admittedly bearish looking, we could face a bounce into the $53-ish…

You see, the Q's rebound sharply Friday morning and tested the $53-ish just a predicted. Any call options traded could have made about +60% intraday. In speaking of options, the October 04 Call Option (Q's October 51 Call Option – QQQJY) set up gained as much as +130% (original cost was $1.30; the position hit as high as $3 October 11). And we've also locked in a nice +100% profit intraday on the October 11 "Q's November 53 Put Option (QQQWA)" set up.

Again, successful trading is all about the quack count. If the ducks align, like yesterday, we'll give you a ping in advance so that you'll have sufficient time to "hit 'em hard". When they don't, we'll also chime in so that you can take a day off and go play golf. It's so easy, even a 10 years old kid can do it.

Want more investing ideas? Check out Capital Essence's Newsletter Services - "best-of-web" technical analysis.

技術前瞻：股市或已見頂？

Editor's note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence's CEM News on October 11, 2007. It's being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2007年10月12日 (週五) 的市場技術分析。

週四股市出現急劇反轉，最終低收。盤中道指一度上漲超過一百點，創下歷史新高，但之後的跳水又令其下跌一百餘點。事實上，週四的行情和我們之前在"Cubes Speculator Bulletin"文章中的預測非常一致。當時我們指出："QQQQ正努力形成一個關鍵的頂部……54美元附近有出貨跡象……很有可能出現回調。"不出所料，在我們的看跌評論發出之後，納斯達克100指數ETF(QQQQ)立即下跌2%有餘。當日建倉的看跌期權獲利近100%。

繼週四的大規模拋賣之後，多數主要股指的日線圖均呈現糟糕的"單日關鍵反轉"形態。這是重大轉變出現的特徵。股市雖然看跌，但此次下滑的嚴重程度我們目前還無從得知。

上面是標普500指數的短期日線圖。週四的拋賣又將該指數送至長達兩個月的上升趨勢線的支撐位置。值得注意的是，成交量重新上升，但不幸的是，這對多頭不利。雖然看跌的前景已無可否認，但只要空頭還沒有攻下兩個月來的上升趨勢線的支撐位，多頭仍將佔據上風。

上面是道指的短期日線圖。和標普500指數類似，該指數同樣經歷了糟糕的一天。目前，"最令人關注的問題"是"多頭能否守住14000點? " 我們的判斷是否定的，但這還需要得到進一步的確認。支撐位約為13700點。儘管下跌已成必然，但預計買家會在該支撐位水平重新振作。

總結：如前所述，週四的跳水預示著股市將發生根本性的轉變。它表明股市正處於或者非常接近具有重要意義的頂部。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。

Market is at or very near to a meaningful peak

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Friday October 12, 2007.

Stocks saw a dramatic reversal to finish lower on Thursday, with the Dow first sitting at record high on a gain of over 100 points before plunging to a loss of over 100 points. As a matter of fact, Thursday's trading action was pretty consistent with what we've predicted in our previous "Cubes Speculator Bulletin": "QQQQ is working on an important top… There were signs of distribution around the $54 level… The stock looks vulnerable for a pullback." The NASDAQ 100 Index ETF (QQQQ) dropped more than -2% immediately after our bearish call. The Put Option setup gained about +100% intraday.

Let's take a look at the major indices:

A majority of major indices had printed an ugly "one-day key reversal" bar on the daily chart after Thursday's large scale sell-off. It is indicative of a significant change in character. Admittedly bearish, there is no way to know in advance how bad the decline is going to be.

The S&P 500 Index (daily) chart above addresses a short-term time frame. Thursday's sell-off had sent the index back to support at the two-month rising trendline. It worth notice that volume finally returned though unfortunately it wasn't in the bull's favor. Although admittedly bearish looking, the bulls still have the driver side of the market until or unless the bears managed to take out support at the two-month rising trendline.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (daily) chart above addresses a short-term time frame. Similar to the S&P 500 Index, the blue-chips had also experienced a bad day. Right now, the "burning question" is "can the bulls hold the 14K level?" Our gut feelings say no but we need more than just a gut feeling. Support is about 13700. Although admittedly bearish, expect buyers to regroup at this level.

Bottom line: as noted above, today's plunge is indicative of a significant change in character. It's suggested that market is at or very near to a meaningful peak.

Until next time, good luck!

(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It's now available at a monthly rate.