Capital Essence Blog - 錢途集團: Oct 11, 2007

How to pocket a “triple digit profit” when others are losing money?

[Capital Essence's NewsDesk] As we've opined in the previous Market Outlook: "Tuesday's bullish breakout on low volume suggested that the new highs might not sustain", stocks saw a dramatic reversal to finish lower on Thursday, with the Dow first sitting at record highs on a gain of over 100 points before plunging to a loss of over 100 points. Yep, the bears wiped out -200 points in matter of minutes.

Editor's Note: below are just some trading ideas flow from our latest Headlines.

Despite the overall volatility, our "Cubes Speculator Bulletin" had a fantastic day, pocketed about +100% for the day. And, it's all about timing - perfect timing!

"Cubes Speculator Bulletin"

October 10, 2007 @ 6:30 PM.

"a move to above $53.57 indicates trend continuation and a test of resistant about $54 is, therefore, expected"
From a longer term perspective, an upleg that started on August 16 looks tired.
Breadth (chart 1.2) and momentum indicators suggested that the Q's is working on an important top.

October 11, 2007 (Mid-Day Update) @ 1:20 PM.

There were signs of distribution around the $54 level.
…vulnerable for a pullback… [long] "Q's November 53 Put Option (QQQWA)" position around Q's $53.80/90….

As you can see, the Q's tested the record high $54 level this morning amid a strong overnight buying enthusiasm. The new high was, however, met with an even more aggressive wave of selling around noon. The stock dropped as low as $52.28 or -2% immediately after our Mid-Day Update. The Put Option setup gained about +100% intraday.

You see, successful trading is all about the quack count. If the ducks align, like today, we'll give you a ping in advance so that you'll have sufficient time to "hit 'em hard". When they don't, we'll also chime in so that you can take a day off and go play golf. It's so easy, even a 10 years old kid can do it.

Want more investing ideas? Check out Capital Essence's Newsletter Services - "best-of-web" technical analysis.

技術前瞻：大盤技術面依然樂觀

Editor's note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence's CEM News on October 10, 2007. It's being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2007年10月11日 (週四) 的市場技術分析。

我們在昨天的前瞻分析中說過："週二的縮量突破表明此次突破可能難以維繫" 。果然，由於美國鋁業(AA)、波音(BA) 、謝弗龍(CVX) 、Valero (VLO)以及國際紙業 (IP)的等眾多公司的最新財報令人失望，週三股市低收。

儘管大盤整體疲軟，但納指當日穩住了陣腳，上漲8點，報收2811點，創數年來收盤新高。事實上，週三的交易狀況和我們之前在"Cubes Speculator Bulletin" 文章中預測的非常一致。當時我們說："整體走勢是上行，投資者最好對此表示尊重。站上53.16美元，53.50美元長期阻力位必定將受到考驗" 。不出所料，納斯達克100指數ETF(QQQQ)在週二突破53.50美元之後，週三下午一度漲至53.57美元。近期建倉的看漲期權4天之內就鎖定了 104%的驚人收益。

原油價格週三上漲1.3%，每桶報收81.30美元。之前，彭博社有報道稱土耳其已準備在伊拉克北部石油儲備密集區對庫爾德武裝發動軍事打擊。

我們一直對油價走勢持看漲態度。事實上，在我們對原油價格做出正面評價之後，其累計漲幅已達15%。

近期的回調在7月高點附近找到了支撐。這是看漲的信號，表明原油的漲勢正在延伸。正如我們在8月27日說過的那樣："長遠看來，能源股將成為相對長久的贏家。"

來看主要股指：

上面是標普500指數的短期日線圖。如前所料，該指數週三走低。儘管當前標普500指數看上去易受攻擊，但只要該指數能守在長達三個月的上升趨勢線的支撐位上方，看漲的立場仍保持不變。短期支撐位為上週低點，約1540點。

上面是道指的短期日線圖。該指數持續在近期看漲突破點位置處縮量橫向整理。技術面而言，這是看漲的信號，表明道指在為延展上升趨勢做準備。短期支撐位為上週低點，約14000點。

總結：儘管表面看來，大盤在當前水平下比較脆弱，但只要各指數能守在各自上週低點支撐位的上方，總體技術背景仍然積極。和我們10月5日的評論一樣，股市的大趨勢保持不變——強勢的股市正在準備向新高點突破。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。

The overall technical backdrop remains constructive

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Thursday October 11, 2007.

As we've opined right here in the previous Market Outlook "Tuesday's bullish breakout on low volume suggested that the new highs might not sustain", equity market finished lower Wednesday amid a batch of disappointing earnings and updates from the likes of Alcoa (AA), Boeing (BA), Chevron (CVX), Valero (VLO) and International Paper (IP).

Despite the overall weakness, the NASDAQ held ground throughout the session, up 8 points to finish at 2811, a new multi-year closing high. As a matter of fact, Wednesday's trading action was pretty consistent with what we've predicted in our previous "Cubes Speculator Bulletin": "the overall trend is up and you better respect it. A move to above $53.16 will confirm a test of the long-term resistant at $53.50". The NASDAQ 100 Index ETF (QQQQ) hit as high as $53.57 Wednesday afternoon immediately after Tuesday bullish broke out above the $53.16 level. Recent call option setup holds an amazing gain of +104% in just 4 day.

Crude oil rose +1.3% to $81.30 per barrel after Bloomberg reported that Turkey had prepared for a possible military strike against Kurdish militants in oil rich northern Iraq.

Our bullish outlook on the commodity has certainly been no secret. As a matter of fact, oil had gained about +15% immediately followed our positive comment.

Recent pullback found support around the July's high. This is bullish, positioning oil to extend its uptrend. And as we've said back in August 27: "from a long-term perspective, energy will be a relative secular winner".

Let's take a look at the major indices:

The S&P 500 Index (daily) chart above addresses a short-term time frame. As expected, the board market index moved lower Wednesday. Though seemingly vulnerable at current levels, the bullish bias remains intact as long as the index holds above support at the three-month rising trendline. Short-term support is at last week's low about 1540.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (daily) chart above addresses a short-term time frame. The blue-chips index continues to base sideway at the area of recent bullish breakout point on lighter volume. Technically speaking, this is bullish, positioning the Dow to extend its uptrend. Short-term support is at last week's low about 14000.

Bottom line: though seemingly vulnerable at current levels, the overall technical backdrop remains constructive as long as the indices hold above support at last week's low. And as we've said back on October 5: "the larger picture remains unchanged – we have a strong market that is poised for a breakout to new high".

Until next time, good luck!

(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It's now available at a monthly rate.