Trading Ideas: key to success trading

[Capital Essence NewsDesk] Editor's Note: below are just some trading ideas flow from our latest Headlines.

"Exclusive Stock Pick"

• if "news is always worst at the bottom and best at the top", then [the recent trading action suggested that homies] might have reached a short-term tradable bottom

Despite the overall weakness, homebuilder added on the recent gains, rose about 4% this morning. As you can see, the iShares Dow Jones Homebuilder ETF (ITB) gained about +15% for 3 consecutive sessions immediately after profile in our "Exclusive Stock Pick" last weekend as a Buy candidate.

You see, be in the right sector at a right time is the key to success trading.

"Cubes Speculator Bulletin"

• The "cubes" printed another new high today though it seemed to us that the market might be getting ahead of itself, as evidence by the trading volume

QQQQ closed lower Wednesday, down -$0.38 for the day. The stock lost about -1% almost immediately followed our October 01: "market got ahead of itself" bearish comment.

You see, successful trading is all about the quack count. If the ducks align, we'll give you a ping in advance so that you'll have sufficient time to "hit 'em hard". When they don't, like the last 2 days, we'll also chime in so that you can take a day off and go play golf. It's so easy, even a 10 years old kid can do it.

 

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Want more investing ideas? Check out Capital Essence's Newsletter Services - "best-of-web" technical analysis.

技術前瞻：「雙重頂」尚未形成

Editor's note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence's CEM News on October 02, 2007. It's being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2007年10月3日 (週三) 的市場技術分析。

週二股市大部分時間都在負面區間運行，最終收盤漲跌互見。在週一獲得可觀收益之後，道指和標普500指數週二出現小幅下滑，納指當日則再添6點。

值得注意的是，面臨令人失望的成屋待完成銷售報告，房屋建造商股票週二仍高漲5%以上，這表明所有的壞消息都已經被"消化"了 。

事實上，自幾天前我們在"Exclusive Stock Pick"中作過介紹以來，房地產建築行業指數的累計漲幅已達10%。技術面而言，在存在大量空頭倉位的情況下，如果該指數能夠成功突破長達6個月的看跌趨勢線的阻力位(見上圖)，市場上將出現大規模的軋空行情。此外，我們在9月30日的分析中說過，如果最壞的消息總是在底部出現，最好的消息總是在頂部出現，那麼該板塊可能已經達到了短期交易的底部。當前阻力位為06年低點——約550點。

來看主要股指：

上面是標普500指數的短期日線圖。該指數剛好止步於7月高點阻力位的下方。技術面而言，這並不十分令人鼓舞，但除非空頭能夠成功將股價推至9月25日低點(約1507點)之下，否則多頭仍將佔據優勢。短期支撐位約為1525點。

上面是道指的短期日線圖。顯然，經過昨天的驚人反彈之後，該指數正在進行休整。只要該指數能夠守在13700點之上，多頭就無需擔心。

總結：昨天股市的下滑引起了為數不少的關於"雙重頂"的說法，但在我們看來，至少股市現在還不具備出現頂部的特徵。因此，除非出現相反證據，多頭姑且處於有利地位。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

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注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。

The bulls should be given the benefit of the doubts

Editor's note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence's CEM News on October 02, 2007. It's being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Wednesday October 03, 2007.

Stock finished Tuesday mixed after spending the majority of the day in negative territory. Both of the Dow and the S&P 500 suffered small losses on the heel of Monday's sizable gains while the NASDAQ tacked on another six points.

It worth notice that the homebuilder jumped more than 5% today on the face of a disappointing pending home sales report suggested that all of the bad had already been "discounted".

In fact, the group had gained about 10% since profiled on the "Exclusive Stock Pick" a couple days ago. Technically speaking, with all the shorts piled in, we could face a mother of all bear squeeze should the group manage to take out resistant at the six-month bearish trendline (see chart above). Further, as we've said back on September 30, if "news is always worst at the bottom and best at the top", then the group might have reached a short-term tradable bottom. Resistant is at '06 low about 550.

Let's take a look at the major indices:

The Standard & Poors 500 Index (daily) chart above addresses a short-term time frame. The board market index stalled just beneath resistant at July's peak. Technically speaking, this is not very encouraging though until or unless the bears manage to push prices to below the September 25's low about 1507, the bulls still have the benefit of the doubt. Short-term support is about 1525.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (daily) chart above addresses a short-term time frame. Apparently, the blue-chip index is taking a breather after yesterday breadth taking rally. With that said, the bulls should have nothing to worry about as long as the index holds above the 13700 level.

Bottom line: today decline had sparked quite a number of "double top" chatters though, from our point of view, it doesn't have the "characteristic" of a top, at least for now. With that said, the bulls should be given the benefit of the doubts until proven otherwise.

Until next time, good luck

(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

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Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It's now available at a monthly rate.