Capital Essence Blog - 錢途集團: Oct 1, 2007

Trading Ideas: Triple Digit Gain on Diamond

[Capital Essence NewsDesk] Editor's Note: below are just some trading ideas flow from our latest Headlines.

"Cubes Speculator Bulletin"

September 27, 2007 @ 11:00 PM

There were 989,000 DIA shares crossed the tape [on Thursday afternoon] at 15:24:50 ET. That's about 10% of today total volume. And more likely than not, the "Dow 15K" chatter will back be sooner rather than later.

As you can see, the Dow rose sharply this morning followed a bullish breakout above the psychologically 14K level. The index traded as high as 14,115.51or +220 points since mentioned in the "Cubes Speculator Bulletin" on Thursday evening. Any call option traded could have earned a triple digit gain today.

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技術前瞻：長期上漲趨勢不變

Editor's note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence's CEM News on September 29, 2007. It's being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2007年10月1日 (週一) 的市場技術分析。

如前所料，上週股市轟轟烈烈地結束了第三季度的交易。道指連續第三週攀升，上週漲75點，漲幅0.5%，報收13,896點，距歷史高點 14000點僅有0.7%的差幅。標普500指數上漲1點，漲幅0.1%，報收1527點。納指上漲30點，漲幅為1.1%，報收2702點。

能源市場上週波動劇烈。11月份交割的原油期貨在遇到阻力之前一度漲至83.76美元。上週五原油報收81.39美元，距當日盤中高點相差近乎 3.0%。

前面說過，原油指數在運行至84美元水平的時候遭遇獲利回吐風潮。儘管如此，只要該指數能夠守住73美元之上，看漲行情仍不會改變。正如我們在8月27日說過的那樣："能源股將是較為長久的贏家"。

儘管上週五大盤整體疲軟，但現貨黃金高漲1.23%，每盎司報收743.30美元。

顯然，黃金正在考驗750美元的水平。當前，考驗能否成功不得而知，但若持續突破該水平，黃金應該有能力在年底前展開一次向800美元大關逼近的反彈。

無疑，對商品(如石油、黃金等)的投資已經成了一個有利可圖的策略。事實上，在我們的看漲評論發佈之後（見這裡和這裡）立即購買石油和/或黃金的投資者可能至少已經獲得了20%的累計收益。

上面是標普500指數的中期周線圖。該指數繼續在7月高點阻力位的下方盤整。我們說過，該指數儘管站上了1540點，但情況仍不十分明朗，如果能夠果斷地突破1555點，則將為目標為1630點的爆發打下基礎。

上面是道指的中期周線圖。和標普500指數類似，該指數也正在7月高點阻力位的下方進行盤整。我們說過，距此有100點差幅的上行目標對交易者來說誘惑不可阻擋。現在考驗已在所難免，關鍵是看什麼時候了。

總結：定於本週五發佈的9月份就業報告能為大盤考驗7月高點提供必要的催化劑。中期看來，到本年度最後一季，股市整體走勢仍然看漲。此外，按以往經驗，投資者應該沒有什麼可擔心的。事實上，過去15年中，標普500指數第四季度的平均收益率有13次達到了6%。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。

Long-term uptrend remains intact

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Monday October 01, 2007.

As expected, stocks finished the third quarter with a bang. Climbing for the third straight week, the Dow added 75, or 0.5%, to 13,896 and is now just 0.7% off its record 14,000 peak. The S&P 500 ticked up a point, or 0.1%, to 1527. The NASDAQ Composite Index rose 30, or 1.1%, to 2702.

Energy market was very volatile last week. Crude oil futures for November delivery traded as high as $83.76 before running into resistance. They closed the session at $81.39 or nearly 3.0% off the intraday high.

As noted above, a move into the $84 level was met by a wave of profit taking. Although the bullish scenario remains intact as long as price holds above the $73 level. And as we've said back in August 27: "energy will be a relative secular winner".

Despite the overall weakness, spot gold jumped 1.23% to $743.30 per troy ounce last Friday.

Apparently, the yellow metal is conducting a testing of the $750 level. At this moment, it's unknown whether this level can be taken out or not. Although a sustain move above it should have the power to fuel a rally into the $800 area by year end.

Clearly, investing in commodities (oil, gold, etc.) had been a profitable strategy. In fact, those who bought oil and/or gold immediately after our bullish comments (see here and here) could have earned at least +20% combine profits.

The Standard & Poors 500 Index (weekly) chart above addresses an intermediate-term time frame. The index continues to consolidate beneath resistant at July's peak. As mentioned, we expect things to be a little sloppy at this area though an advance to above the 1540 level, especially a clear breakout above 1,555 would set the stage for an explosion higher, possibly into the 1630 area.

The Dow Jones Industrials Average (weekly) chart above addresses an intermediate-term time frame. Similar to the S&P 500 Index, the blue-chip index is also consolidating beneath resistant at July's peak. As mentioned, the upside target, which is about a hundred points away from here, is just too tempting for traders to resist. And right now, the question is not "if" but "when".

Bottom line: Hopefully the September employment report, which is scheduled to release this Friday, can provide the needed catalyst for a test of July's peak.

From an intermediate-term perspective, the overall picture remains bullish heading into the last quarter of the year. Further, if history is any guidance, investors would have nothing to worry about. As a matter of fact, the Standard & Poor's 500 had locked in an average fourth quarter gain of 6% in 13 of the past 15 years.

Until next time, good luck.

(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It's now available at a monthly rate.