Capital Essence Blog - 錢途集團: Sep 27, 2007

Trading Ideas: Educate Your Way to Better Trading

[Capital Essence NewsDesk] As we've predicted in the previous Market Outlook:

"Short-term outlook is bullish until proven otherwise"

Stocks added on to previous gains with the Dow up 34 points to 13912. It worth notice that the blue-chip index is about 100 points to an all-time high of 14021.95 recorded on July 17, 2007. The S&P 500 Index added about 6 points to finish at 1531.

Overall, it was a good day on the Street and so our "Swing Trader Bulletin". As a matter of fact, of the eight different portfolio holdings, four posted an average gain of 2-4%, two carried a gain of 1-2% and only two decline less than 1% for the day. Moneygram International (MGI) gained +$0.70 or 3.24% today. The position holds an unrealized gain of about 5% in just 2 days. Trizetto Group Inc (TZIX) gained +$0.27 or 1.50% today. The position holds an amazing unrealized gain of 7.50% since profiled a couple days ago. CBIZ Inc (CBZ) gained +$0.26 or 3.36% today. The position holds an unrealized gain of 6% since profiled a couple days ago.

Editor's Note: below are just some trading ideas flow from our latest Headlines.

"Cubes Speculator Bulletin"

September 26, 2007 @ 10:30 PM

As expected, the speculative action remains though there are signs of profit taking on big names like GOOG, MSFT, AMZN…etc. And this does not bode well for the bulls.
The "cubes" is short-term overbought.
We're back to the wait-and-see period.

As predicted, QQQQ whipsaw around the flat-line for an entire Thursday session.

Did you see how easy it is to become a successful trader? All you have to do is come to the right place and applied the right tools. At Capital Essence, we offer the best trading education.

Want more investing ideas? Check out Capital Essence's Newsletter Services - "best-of-web" technical analysis.

Trading Ideas: Educate Your Way to Better Trading

[Capital Essence NewsDesk] As we've predicted in the previous Market Outlook:

"Short-term outlook is bullish until proven otherwise"

Editor's Note: below are just some trading ideas flow from our latest Headlines.

"Cubes Speculator Bulletin"

September 26, 2007 @ 10:30 PM

As expected, the speculative action remains though there are signs of profit taking on big names like GOOG, MSFT, AMZN…etc. And this does not bode well for the bulls.
The "cubes" is short-term overbought.
We're back to the wait-and-see period.

As predicted, QQQQ whipsaw around the flat-line for an entire Thursday session.

Did you see how easy it is to become a successful trader? All you have to do is come to the right place and applied the right tools. At Capital Essence, we offer the best trading education.

Want more investing ideas? Check out Capital Essence's Newsletter Services - "best-of-web" technical analysis.

技術前瞻：短期仍看漲

Editor's note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence's CEM News on September 26, 2007. It's being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2007年9月27日 (週四) 的市場技術分析。

在昨天的前瞻分析中我們說過："股市就要出現大的轉機。[週二] 的交易狀況表明阻力最小的通道仍為上行"。果然，週三股市全面反彈，道指上漲100點左右，漲幅0.72%，報收13878點。

我們 "Swing Trader Bulletin" 投資組合中的長期持股——American Eagle Outfitters Inc (AEO) 昨日表現不凡。週三，這家服飾製造商的股價高漲了5%以上。之前Wachovia Capital Markets的一位分析師調升了AEO的股票評級，認為該公司在商品線、利潤率和股價方面具有優勢。

我們已經在"Cubes Speculator Bulletin"文章中說過："高貝塔值股票背後存在非常激進的投機行為。因為基金經理們都盡全力在第三季度結束之前補充自己的持股數量。這一狀況很可能在明天繼續出現。"不出所料，高貝塔值的指數——納斯達克100指數昨天的表現仍優於其它同類大型股指數。

圖中可以看出，昨天納斯達克100指數再次創下數年來的新高，而納指則仍在7月高點的下方運行。事實上，這種"分裂"的市場形態不會一直持續下去。大盤走勢還是上行，我們應該對此表示尊重。

上面是標普500指數的短期日線圖。該指數正在穿越長達6天的三角區的上邊界。總的來講，這是看漲的圖表形態。我們說過，該指數看漲突破該三角區的上邊界預示7月高點——約1555點將受到考驗。

上面是道指的短期日線圖。顯然，該指數昨天正在對13870-14000點的上方"關鍵"阻力位進行考驗。當前，我們不知道多頭是否能夠成功拿下該阻力位，但是持續突破14000點將引起該指數一次中期反彈，從而可能將該指數推至15000點水平。

總結：除非出現相反證據，股市短期前景看漲。儘管如此，今天還是要對修正後的第二季度GDP數據以及新屋銷售報告加以關注，因為這兩個報告都有可能改變股市的運行方向。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It's now available at a monthly rate.

Bullish until proven otherwise

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Thursday September 27, 2007.

We've offered in the previous Market Outlook that "market is due for a big move. [Tuesday] trading action suggested that the path with least resistant is still to the upside"; stock rallied across the board Wednesday with Dow gained about +100 points or +0.72% to finish at 13878.

One stock that jumped up on the day was American Eagle Outfitters Inc (AEO) – a long holding of our "Swing Trader Bulletin" Portfolio. Shares of the apparel maker soared more than 5% Wednesday after a Wachovia Capital Markets analyst raised his rating on the teen retailer, citing stronger merchandise lines, improved margins and a good price for the stock.

As we've noted on the "Cubes Speculator Bulletin": "there are signs of very aggressive speculative actions in the high-beta stocks. Why? Fund managers are doing their best to beef up their numbers before the third quarter's curtain closes. More likely than not, we should continue to see the same action tomorrow." Unsurprisingly, the high-beta index, NASDAQ-100, continues to outperform its larger peers.

As you can see, the NASDAQ-100 Index printed another multi-year high today whereas the NASDAQ Composite Index is still trading below the July's peak. In fact, this kind of "split personality" market doesn't last forever though until then, the trend is up and we should respect it.

The Standard & Poors 500 Index (daily) chart above addresses a short-term time frame. The board market index is penetrating the upper border of the six-day old pennant. General speaking, this is one bullish looking chart. As mentioned, a bullish breakout above the pennant's upper border indicates a test of July's high about 1555.

The Dow Jones Industrials Average (daily) chart above addresses a short-term time frame. Apparently, the blue-chip index is conducting a test of the "major" overhead resistant that runs from 13870-14000 today. At this moment, it's unknown that the bulls can successfully take out this resistant or not. Although a sustain breakout above the 14K level will spark an intermediate-term rally that might propel prices into the 15K level.

Bottom line: the short-term outlook is bullish until proven otherwise. Although keep an eye on the final Q2 GDP and new home sales reports, which are scheduled to release Thursday morning at 8:30 AM ET and 10:00 AM ET respectively, for they have the potential to move the market one way or the other.

Until next time, good luck.

(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)