Capital Essence Blog - 錢途集團: Sep 26, 2007

The trend is your best friend

[Capital Essence NewsDesk] As we've predicted in the previous Market Outlook:

"Market is due for a big move. Today's trading action suggested that the path with least resistant is still to the upside"

Stocks gapped up nicely Wednesday morning and traded higher into the close with the Dow up as much as +130 points intraday before gave back some of the gains to finish at 13878, up +99 points or +0.72%. Any Dow Diamonds ETF (DIA) call options traded could have earned about 50% intraday.

Editor's Note: below are just some trading ideas flow from our latest Headlines.

"Cubes Speculator Bulletin"

September 25, 2007 @ 10:00 PM

The "cubes" broke out again this afternoon …the trend is up and we should respect it.
There are signs of very aggressive speculative actions in the high-beta stocks.
Why? Fund managers are doing their best to beef up their numbers before the third quarter's curtain closes.
More likely than not, we should continue to see the same action tomorrow.

You see, QQQQ gapped up nicely this morning and tested the expected $51.50 level. As a matter of fact, the latest call option setup achieved the third target of $51.50 today. The position booked in an incredible gain of +40% in as little as 2 days.

Want more investing ideas? Check out Capital Essence's Newsletter Services - "best-of-web" technical analysis.

技術前瞻：股市就要出現大轉機

Editor's note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence's CEM News on September 25, 2007. It's being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2007年9月26日 (週三) 的市場技術分析。

週二股市漲跌不一。標普500指數略微低收，報1,517點，納斯達克100指數上漲19.58點，漲幅為1%，報收2,076點。這和我們之前在"Cubes Speculator Bulletin" 文章中所說的一樣。我們說過："鑒於當前的超買形勢，週一行情看漲。大盤走勢為上行，與之對抗並非明智之舉。前一交易日高點——約51 美元的價位被重新考驗的可能性很高"。事實上，納斯達克100指數ETF(QQQQ) 週二實現突破並創下了新高。該ETF早盤呈現出的弱勢被多方的猛烈買進熱潮一掃而空，該ETF一度漲至51.09美元。新建倉的看漲期權僅一天就獲得了 20%的可觀收益。

毋庸贅言，昨天的看漲突破為科技股奠定了良好的基調。

上面是納斯達克100指數的長期月線圖。圖中可以看出，近期的看漲突破已經將該指數推至上方主要的阻力位位置。請記住，該指數若能站上該阻力位，將為考驗01年高點——約2770點打下基礎。01年高點距此有30%的差幅。

上面是標普500指數的短期日線圖。顯然，該指數已經成功考驗了短期移動平均線的支撐位。這是看漲的信號。我們說過，要對長達5天的三角區加以關注，因為該形態通常會在與整體走勢相同的方向中消逝。該指數看漲突破該三角區的上邊界預示7月高點——約1555點將受到考驗。

上面是道指的短期日線圖。和標普500指數類似，該指數也形成了一個小型的多頭旗形。前面說過，看漲突破該旗形表明7月高點——約14000點將受到考驗。

總結：顯然，股市就要出現大的轉機了。週二的交易狀況表明阻力最小的通道仍為上行。同時再考慮到"季末業績行情"，一切都表明大盤已做好了考驗7月高點的準備。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It's now available at a monthly rate.

Market is due for a big move

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Wednesday September 26, 2007.

Equity market finished mix Tuesday with the Standard & Poor's 500 Index was off slightly to 1,517 and the NASDAQ-100 Index was up 19.58 points or about 1% to 2,076 just as we've offered in the previous "Cubes Speculator Bulletin": "Monday trading action is considered bullish given the overbought condition. The trend is up and it's not wise to fight it. There is a high probability for a retest of yesterday's high about $51." As a matter of fact, the NASDAQ-100 Index ETF (QQQQ) broke out to a new record high Tuesday and hit as high as $51.09 after the morning weakness was met by an aggressive wave of buying. The newly call option setup booked in a nice 20% in just 1 day.

Needless to say, today's bullish breakout had set a positive tone for tech stocks.

The NASDAQ 100 Index (monthly) chart above addresses a long-term time frame. As you can see, the recent bullish breakout had propelled the index into the area of a major overhead resistant. Bear in mind that an advance to above this level will set the stage for a test of '01 high about 2770, which is about 30% from here.

The Standard & Poors 500 Index (daily) chart above addresses a short-term time frame. Apparently, the board market index had successfully tested support at the area of the short-term moving average. This is bullish. As mentioned, keep an eye on the five days old pennant as these patterns tend to "resolve" in the direction of the overall trend. Again, a bullish breakout above the pennant's upper border indicates a test of July's high about 1555.

The Dow Jones Industrials Average (daily) chart above addresses a short-term time frame. Similar to the S&P 500, the blue-chip index had also form a small bull flag. As noted above, a bullish breakout from the flag indicates a test of July's high about 14K.

Bottom line: apparently, market is due for a big move. Today's trading action suggested that the path with least resistant is still to the upside. Combining these with the "quarter-end performance anxiety" suggests that the stage had been set for a test of July's high.

Until next time, good luck.