Capital Essence Blog - 錢途集團: Sep 25, 2007

S&P Flat, Cubes Speculator Bulletin Soared

[Capital Essence NewsDesk] Editor's Note: below are just some trading ideas flow from our latest Headlines.

"Cubes Speculator Bulletin"

September 24, 2007 @ 9:30 PM

Today trading action is considered bullish given the overbought condition.
The trend is up and it'd not be wise to fight it.
There is a high probability for a test of today's breakdown point at $50.80.
A move above $50.60 will confirm this.

September 25, 2007 @ 11:30 AM

As discussed, we've initiated a "QQQQ October 50 Call Option (QQQJX)" position as QQQQ broke ABOVE $50.60 this morning.
The "cubes" is consolidating as I type.
So far so good. As long as it holds above the morning low, there is a high probability for a retest of yesterday's high about $51.

As you can see, QQQQ tested the expected $50.80 level followed a bullish breakout above the $50.60 level this morning. Further, as predicted, after a brief consolidation, the stock broke out nicely in the afternoon [followed our 11:30 alert] and retested the $51 level (yesterday high). The call option booked in a nice +21% for the day.

You see, successful trading is all about the quack count. If the ducks align, we'll give you a ping in advance so that you'll have sufficient time to "hit 'em hard". When they don't, we'll also chime in so that you can take a day off and go play golf. It's so easy, even a 10 years old kid can do it.

Want more investing ideas? Check out Capital Essence's Newsletter Services - "best-of-web" technical analysis.

技術前瞻：注意標普500的小三角區

Editor's note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence's CEM News on September 24, 2007. It's being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2007年9月25日 (週二) 的市場技術分析。

如前所料，股市週一高開，納斯達克100指數(NDX) 突破並創下數年來的新高。但是，這一高位遭遇了更為猛烈的拋盤的打擊。以科技股為主的NDX收盤時雖然距盤中高點——2072.70.點相差甚多，但還是成功高收，上漲8點，至2057點。

事實上，納斯達克100指數(NDX)昨天的交易狀況和我們之前在"Cubes Speculator Bulletin"文章中的觀點非常一致。我們說過："突破50.60美元意味著第三個目標——51美元將被考驗" 。果然，昨日上午，納斯達克100指數ETF(QQQQ)在看漲突破50.60美元之後，曾一度攀升至50.96美元。當日任何看漲期權盤中都將獲得約 30%的收益。

來看主要股指：

上面是標普500指數的短期日線圖。值得注意的是，該指數已經形成了小型的三角區。按照教科書上的說法，這種形態通常會在與整體走勢相同的方向中消逝。而當前整體走勢為上揚。因此，如果該指數看漲突破該三角區的上邊界，大盤考驗7月高點——約1555點的可能性將增大。

上面是道指的短期日線圖。在股市消化上週收益的同時，納指也繼續在高點附近的橫向區間打底。技術面而言，這一表現完全正常並且是看漲的信號。短期阻力位約為13880點。大盤向上突破該水平預示著7月的高點——約14000點將被考驗。短期支撐位約為13739.點。請記住，大盤跌破這一支撐位表明近期看張突破點的支撐位將受到考驗。

總結：交易者應該注意標普500指數的小型三角區。我們說過，從該三角區上邊界的看漲突破將為大盤考驗7月高點打下基礎。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It's now available at a monthly rate.

Keep an eye on the small S&P pennant

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Tuesday September 25, 2007.

As predicted, stocks opened on a positive note Monday morning with the NASDAQ-100 Index (NDX) broke out to a new multi-year high. The high was, however, greeted by an even more aggressive wave of selling. The tech rich index managed to close in the positive territory, up 8 points to 2057, though well below the intraday high of 2072.70.

As a matter of fact, the NASDAQ 100 Index (NDX) trading action was very consistent with what we've noted in our "Cubes Speculator Bulletin":「an advance to above $50.60 indicates a test of the third target about $51.」The NASDAQ-100 Index ETF (QQQQ) climbed as high as $50.96 followed a bullish breakout above the $50.60 level this morning. Any call option traded could have made about 30% intraday.

Let's take a look at the major index charts:

The Standard & Poors 500 Index (daily) chart above addresses a short-term time frame. It worth notice that the board market index had formed a small pennant. Should the text book stands true, these patterns tend to "resolve" in the direction of the overall trend, which is up in this case. With that said, a bullish breakout above the pennant's upper border will increase the probability for a test of July's high about 1555.

The Dow Jones Industrials Average (daily) chart above addresses a short-term time frame. The blue-chip index continues to base sideway near high as the market digesting last week's gain. Technically speaking, the action is completely normal and bullish. Short-term Resistant is about 13880. An advance to above this level indicates a test of July's high about 14K. Short-term support is about 13739. Bear in mind that a decline to below this level suggests a test of support at recent bullish breakout point.

Bottom line: Trader should keep an eye on the small S&P pennant. As mentioned, a bullish breakout from the pennant's upper border will set the stage for a test of July's high.

Until next time, good luck.

(By: Michelle Mai)