Capital Essence Blog - 錢途集團: Sep 24, 2007

Market Down, Cubes Up

[Capital Essence NewsDesk] As predicted, stocks opened on a positive note Monday morning with the NASDAQ-100 Index (NDX) broke out to a new multi-year high. The high was, however, met by an even more aggressive wave of selling. The tech rich index managed to close in the positive territory, up 8 points to 2057.75, though well below the intraday high of 2072.53.

Editor's Note: below are just some trading ideas flow from our latest Headlines.

"Cubes Speculator Bulletin"

September 23, 2007 @ 3:30 PM

An advance to above $50.60 indicates a test of the third target about $51.

September 24, 2007 @ 10:30 AM

The "Cubes" is consolidating around the $50.90 level as I type

We'll take some money off the table.

As you can see, after climbing as high as $50.96 followed a bullish breakout above the expected $50.60 level this morning, QQQQ declined immediately after our intraday alert @ 10:30 am.

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技術前瞻：多頭仍將處於支配地位

Editor's note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence's CEM News on September 23, 2007. It's being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2007年9月24日 (週一) 的市場技術分析。

在上次的前瞻分析中我們指出："交易者無需對[週四的]下跌過分擔憂，那只不過是一次強勢上漲後的獲利回吐" 。果然，上週五股市漂亮地高開，直至收盤一直保持漲勢。最終，標普500指數上漲7點，當日漲幅為0.46%，周累計增長2.80%。這當然是不錯的收益，但和石油以及黃金相比還稍顯不足。石油和黃金指數的周漲幅分別為5.34%和3.42%。

在我們對Gold Bugs以及現貨黃金做出看漲評論之後，不到兩週時間，Gold Bugs以及現貨黃金立即上漲了約12%。技術面而言，上週的看漲突破應該有能力將金價推至450美元的位置。

圖中可以看出，自我們在文章中將石油服務類指數定為潛在買進對像後，該指數在4周內的累計漲幅已超過12%。技術面而言，上週的看漲突破應該有能力將該指數送至300美元水平。

來看主要股指：

上面是標普500指數的中期周線圖。顯然，繼上週的看漲突破後，該指數正向考驗7月高點阻力位的方向挺進。此次考驗至關重要，因為一旦考驗失敗，"看跌的雙重頂"將形成。目前支撐位約為1440點，阻力位為7月高點——約1555點。

上面是道指的中期周線圖。和標普500指數類似，繼上週的看漲突破之後，該指數也正向考驗7月高點阻力位的方向挺進。我們說過，鑒於7、8月份的下滑幅度，考驗一旦失敗，多頭的壓力將比從前更大一些。目前支撐位約為13000點。阻力位為7月高點——約14000點。

上面是納指的中期周線圖。和其他兩大股指類似，以科技股為主的納指也同樣向考驗7月高點阻力位的方向挺進。值得注意的是，8月16日至今上漲時的成交量略低於7、8月份拋賣時的成交量。這並不大令人鼓舞。但是，只要股價沒有跌破8月低點的支撐位——約2386點，多頭仍將佔據上風。目前阻力位為 7月高點——約2724點。

總結：總體來說，繼上週看漲突破之後，新的多頭上漲已經開始。從前，十月份並非有利於多頭市場的月份。但是，股價要漲，我們就要對此表示尊重。因此，只要股市能夠守住上週的看漲突破點，多頭仍將處於支配地位。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It's now available at a monthly rate.

The bulls remain largely in charge

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Monday September 24, 2007.

We've offered in the previous Market Outlook that: "traders shouldn't worry too much about [Thursday's] decline, which was nothing more than a profit taking effort following the strong run"; stocks gapped up nicely last Friday morning and remained positive into the close with the S&P 500 rose 7 points or +0.46% for the day and +2.80% for the week. The gain is, of course, nice though it's relative small as compare to those of Oil and Gold, which had gained +5.34% and +3.42% respectively.

Gold Bugs, and so spot gold, jumped about +12% in less than 2 weeks immediately followed our bullish comment. Technically speaking, last week's bullish breakout should have the power to propel prices into the $450 area.

As you can see, the Oil Service Index jumped more than 12% in about 4 weeks since featured right here as a potential buy. Technically speaking, last week's bullish breakout should have the power to propel prices into the $300 area.

Let's take a look at the major index charts:

The Standard & Poors 500 Index (weekly) chart above addresses an intermediate-term time frame. Apparently, the board market index is heading for a test of resistant at July's high followed last week's bullish breakout. This is a very important test for a failure to take out this level will spark a "bearish double top" talk. Support is about 1440. Resistant is at July's high, about 1555.

The Dow Jones Industrials Average (weekly) chart above addresses an intermediate-term time frame. Similar to the S&P 500, the blue-chip index is also heading for a test of resistant at July's high followed last week's bullish breakout. As mentioned, given the magnitude of the July-August decline, a failure to take out this level will give the bulls more pressure than they've already had. Support is about 13K. Resistant is at July's high, about 14K.

The NASDAQ Composite Index (weekly) chart above addresses an intermediate-term time frame. Similar to its peers, the tech rich index is also heading for a test of resistant at July's high. It worth notice that of the August 16 to present up-leg's volume was relatively lower than that of the July-August sell-off. And this isn't very encouraging. Although, the bulls still have the upper hand unless prices drop to below support around the August's low at 2386. Resistant is at July's high about 2724.

Bottom line: general speaking, a new bull leg had begun after last week's bullish breakout. Historically, October isn't a bull market friendly month. However, prices are going up and we have to respect that. With that said, the bulls remain largely in charge as long as the market holds above last week's bullish breakout point.

Until next time, good luck.

(By: Michelle Mai)