Capital Essence Blog - 錢途集團: Sep 21, 2007

A Winning Week for all

[Capital Essence NewsDesk] We've offered in the previous Market Outlook that:

"Traders shouldn't worry too much about [Thursday's] decline, which was nothing more than a profit taking effort following the strong run"

Stocks gapped up nicely Friday morning and remained positive into the close with the S&P 500 rose 7 points or +0.46% for the day and +2.80% for the week. Although, the gain is relative small as compare to those of Oil and Gold, which had gained +5.34% and +3.42% respectively.

Gold Bugs, and so spot gold, jumped about +12% in less than 2 weeks immediately followed our bullish comment on the Market Outlook.

As you can see, the Oil Service Index jumped more than 12% in about 4 weeks since featured on the Market Outlook as a potential BUY.

Overall it was a very nice week on the Street and so the "Swing Trader Bulletin". Below are just a couple of the dozens of winning setup that our CEM News subscribers had enjoyed recently:

Cepheid (CPHD) +40% since profiled on August 3.

Omniture Inc (OMTR) +20% since profiled a couple days ago - on September 7 @ $24.53.

Concur Technologies Inc (CNQR) broke out to new high. The stock rose +20% since profiled a couple weeks ago - on August 30 @ $25.55.

Advent Software Inc (ADVS) gained about $10 points or +25% since profiled a couple weeks ago.

…and a lot more (click here to see for yourself).

Want more investing ideas? Check out Capital Essence's Newsletter Services - "best-of-web" technical analysis.

技術前瞻：當心「四重魔力日」

Editor's note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence's CEM News on September 20, 2007. It's being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2007年9月21日 (週五) 的市場技術分析。

我們在"Cubes Speculator Bulletin" 的文章中曾對股市做出這樣的評論："價格動能指標處於盤整前的水平。QQQQ在其高點附近已形成看跌的"陀螺柱"形態。再加上即將到來的四重魔力日的不可預知性，盤整可能就此開始"。我們的看跌評論發出之後，週四股市立刻出現小幅下滑，主要股指的平均跌幅約為0.50%。

黃金指數成為昨天大盤最耀眼的焦點。現貨黃金價格上漲超過12美元，漲幅為1.74%，報收733.75美元，創下新高。

自我們對該板塊做出看漲評價之後，金價已累計上漲40美元以上，漲幅為5.32%。技術面而言，昨天的看漲突破應該有能力將金價送至750美元的位置。

來看主要股指：

上面是標普500指數的短期日線圖。顯然，該指數正向考驗近期突破點——約1500點的支撐位方向挺進。只要該指數能夠守住這一支撐位，多頭仍將佔據優勢。

上面是道指的短期日線圖。和標普500指數類似，該指數昨天也展開了小幅回調。技術面而言，昨日的下滑不會造成任何的恐慌，因為這只是強勁攀升之後的一次小範圍獲利回吐——在週四之前，道指本週的累計漲幅已近3.0%。當前支撐位約為13695點。

總結：如前所述，交易者無需對昨天股市的下跌過分擔憂，那只不過是一次強勢上漲後的獲利回吐。同時，今天將是一個四重魔力日，即指數期權、指數期貨、股票期權以及股票期貨都將在今天到期。根據以往經驗，今天的行情有可能完全"超出常理"，因此在此刻挑戰股市並 8750;明智之舉。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It's now available at a monthly rate.

Quadruple witching day

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Friday September 21, 2007.

Equity market moved modestly lower Thursday with a majority of major indices lost about -0.50% in average immediately followed our bearish note on the "Cubes Speculator Bulletin": "price momentum indicator is at level that precedes a correction. QQQQ had printed a bearish "spinning top bar" near high. Combining these with the unpredictable behavior of the upcoming quadruple witching day, suggests we may be encountered the beginning of a consolidation."

Gold was the shiniest spot in today's lousy tape. Spot gold jumped more than $12 or +1.74% to $733.75- a new record high.

The yellow metal jumps more than $40 or +5.32% since our bullish comment. Technically speaking, today bullish breakout should have the power to propel prices into the $750 area.

Let's take a look at the major index charts:

The Standard & Poors 500 Index (daily) chart above addresses a short-term time frame. Apparently, the board market index is heading for a test of support at recent breakout point, about 1500. The bulls still have the upper hand as long as the index holds above this level.

The Dow Jones Industrials Average (daily) chart above addresses a short-term time frame. Similar to the S&P 500, the blue-chip index had also pulled back a bit today. Technically speaking, the decline shouldn't cause any alarm as the move was just a small profit taking following the strong run – the Dow was up nearly 3.0% for the week before entering today's session. Immediately support is about 13695.

Bottom line: as noted above, traders shouldn't worry too much about today decline, which was nothing more than a profit taking effort following the strong run. Also, as mentioned, tomorrow is the quadruple witching day, a day on which stock index options, stock index futures, stock options and single stock futures all expire. And, according to our experience, trading action is going to be totally "weird" so, it's not wise to attempt to challenge the market on this day.

Until next time, good luck.

(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)