Capital Essence Blog - 錢途集團: Sep 20, 2007

Rally ran out of steam as expected

Editor's Note: below are just some trading ideas flow from our latest Headlines.

"Cubes Speculator Bulletin"

September 19, 2007 @ 10:30 PM

Momentum indicator is at level that precedes a correction.

The "cubes" printed a bearish "spinning top bar" near high.

Combining these above with the unpredictable behavior of the upcoming quadruple witching day, indicates we may be encountered the beginning of a consolidation.

As a matter of fact, the NASDAQ-100 ETF (QQQQ) gapped down Thursday morning and traded lower into the close. Any put option traded should have made some quick and nice profits today.

Want more investing ideas? Check out Capital Essence's Newsletter Services - "best-of-web" technical analysis.

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技術前瞻：股市上行阻力最小

Editor's note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence's CEM News on September 19, 2007. It's being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2007年9月20日 (週四) 的市場技術分析。

在昨天的技術分析中我們說過："昨天聯儲降息導致的反彈已經為大盤考驗7月高點創造了條件。儘管如此，股市可能還需要一些時間來消化昨天的巨幅收益。因此，預計今天股價將在橫向區間運行，但我們的立場看漲。"果然，週三股市小幅上漲，主要股指的平均收益約為0.50%。

股市整體的樂觀情緒緣自油價上升帶動的能源板塊購買狂潮。昨天，紐約商業交易所07年11月到期的原油期貨合約上漲62美分，每桶收於80.85美元，激起了能源股新一輪的買進熱潮

聯儲主席伯南克和財政部長保爾森將於美東時間今天上午10:00在眾議院金融服務委員會就抵押貸款市場問題作證詞陳述。市場對此高度關注。只要伯南克和保爾森一開口，尤其是提及"抵押貸款"幾個字時，華爾街就會全神貫注，洗耳恭聽。

提到抵押貸款，在週三的一片大好形勢下，地產股指數最為不振。該指數當日下跌了近1%。儘管如此，僅從圖表形態來看，該板塊已達到短期可以買入的低點。因此，只要該指數能保持在155點水平之上，未來幾天極有可能考驗8月高點——約190-200點的位置。

來看主要股指：

上面是標普500指數的短期日線圖。繼週二突破長達一月的三角區之後，該指數週三繼續之前的上漲勢頭。這完全是看漲的信號。密切關注7月高點。

上面是道指的短期日線圖。和標普500指數類似，該指數昨天依然強勢不減，大盤再次考驗7月高點——約14000點的趨勢得到了確認。鑒於股市7-8月間的下滑幅度，即將到來的高點考驗將非常關鍵，應密切關注。

總結：隨著9月份指數期貨、指數期權和股票期權的同時到期，預計今天股價將出現劇烈震盪。但從長遠來看，除非出現相反證據，上行是阻力最小的通道。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It's now available at a monthly rate.

The path with least resistant is to the upside

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Thursday September 20, 2007.

As we've predicted right here in our previous Market Outlook "Tuesday FED induced rally had set the stage for a test of July's high. Although market might take some time to digest today's huge gain. With that said, expect prices to move sideway with a positive bias tomorrow" stock moved modestly higher Wednesday with a majority of major indices gained about 0.50% in average.

Contributed to the overall optimism was the buying enthusiasm in the energy sector as rising oil prices, November '07 futures contract gained +0.62 cents to 80.85/barrel on NYMEX, sparked a new wave of buying interest in the energy stocks.

Tomorrow, the market will be keeping a close eye on the testimony on the mortgage market from Fed Chairman Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Paulson before the House Financial Services Committee that will begin at 10:00 ET. When Bernanke and Paulson talk, especially about "mortgage", the Street is all ears.

Speaking of mortgage, the hosing index was the most bearish thing on Wednesday's green screen – the sector down almost 1% for the day. Although as far as the chart concerns, the sector had reached a short-term tradable low. With that said, as long as the index holds above the 155 level, there is a high probability for a test of August's high about 190-200 in the upcoming days.

Let's take a look at the major index charts:

The Standard & Poors 500 Index (daily) chart above addresses a short-term time frame. The board market index followed through to the upside after yesterday's bullish breakout from the one-month old pennant. Again, this is totally bullish. Keep an eye on July's high.

The Dow Jones Industrials Average (daily) chart above addresses a short-term time frame. Similar to the S&P 500, the blue-chip index had also followed through to the upside today and hence, confirmed the retest of July's high, about 14K. Given the magnitude of the July-August decline, the upcoming test [of recent high] is very important and it should be on your trading radar.

Bottom line: expect huge price swing tomorrow as we're heading into the September triple witching expiration day.

From a longer term perspective, the path with least resistant is to the upside unless proven otherwise.

(By：Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)