Capital Essence Blog - 錢途集團: Sep 19, 2007

Stocks gained ground as expected

[Capital Essence NewsDesk] as we've offered in our previous Market Outlook "Tuesday FED induced rally had set the stage for a test of July's high. Although market might take some time to digest today's huge gain. With that said, expect prices to move sideway with a positive bias tomorrow" stock moved modestly higher Wednesday with a majority of major indices gained about 0.50% in average.

Editor's Note: below are just some trading ideas flow from our latest Headlines.

"Cubes Speculator Bulletin"

September 18, 2007 @ 10:30 PM

As far as the breadth indicator concern, the "cubes" is set to challenge July's high, about $50.66.

As a matter of fact, the NASDAQ-100 ETF (QQQQ) took off nicely Wednesday and hit as high as $50.59. Any call option traded should have made about 15% intraday.

The "Swing Trader Bulletin" is beating the market as usual. The majority of its holdings continue to move well on the expected direction and adding on to the amazing unrealized gains.

Below are a couple of our typical setups in the past few days:

Omniture Inc (OMTR) broke out today, up more than +10% for the day or +20% since profiled a couple days ago - on September 7 @ $24.53.
Concur Technologies Inc (CNQR) rose sharply today, up about +7% for the day or +20% since profiled a couple weeks ago - on August 30 @ $25.55.
Blue Nile (NILE) gained about +10 points since profiled a couple weeks ago.

Want more investing ideas? Check out Capital Essence's Newsletter Services - "best-of-web" technical analysis.

技術前瞻：股市將考驗7月高點

Editor's note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence's CEM News on September 18, 2007. It's being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2007年9月19日 (週三) 的市場技術分析。

在昨天的前瞻分析中我們說過："降息50個基點將激起新一輪的買進熱潮"。果然，週二下午，股市急劇攀升，在聯儲於美東時間當日下午2:15公佈降息50個基點之後，道指立即大漲300多點。

事實上，昨天的大盤表現和我們在9月13日和9月18日的"Cubes Speculator Bulletin"文章中的觀點非常一致。當時我們說："9月12日的買進信號將會是始於8月16日低點的第三輪買進熱潮的開始……[過去三天]的下跌是 "反彈"的醞釀"——昨天，納斯達克100指數ETF上漲2.52%。

降息決定增加了一些通脹方面的擔憂，並促使黃金、石油等商品價格走高。

現貨黃金將考驗06年高點。我們說過，該指數突破這一高點將引發一次中期反彈，並將推動金價達到800美元。

原油價格在降息消息發佈之後已衝破天頂 [超出上圖範圍]。這是看漲的信號。該指數的下一站將為90美元大關。

來看主要股指：

上面是標普500指數的短期日線圖。該指數昨天突破了長達一月的三角區。這當然是看漲的信號。我們說過，向上突破三角區將為本月餘下的時間奠定看漲的基調，從而開始大盤對7月高點的考驗。

上面是道指的短期日線圖。和標普500指數類似，該指數同樣突破了一個小型的三角區並正對8月高點進行考驗。我們說過，一旦8月高點被突破，7月高點將再次受到考驗。今天該指數的繼續走高將確認這一點。

總結：前面說過，昨天聯儲降息導致的反彈已經為大盤考驗7月高點創造了條件。儘管如此，股市可能還需要一些時間來消化昨天的巨幅收益。因此，預計今天股價將在橫向區間運行，但我們的立場看漲。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It's now available at a monthly rate.

FED Induced Rally had set the Stage for a test of July’s high

Editor's note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence's CEM News on September 17, 2007. It's being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Wednesday September 19, 2007.

We've offered in our September 17 Market Outlook that "a 50 basis point cut is likely to encourage a fresh round of buying" stocks rose sharply Tuesday afternoon with the Dow gained about 300 points immediately followed the Federal Reserve's announcement to cut the fed funds rate by a half-point, around 2:15 pm ET.

As a matter of fact, today trading action was very consistent to what we've noted in the September 13 and 18 "Cubes Speculator Bulletin" – "September 12 buy signal could be a beginning of the third buying wave - started from August 16's low…the decline [over the past 3 sessions] is simply a "rally" in the making" – the NASDAQ-100 Index ETF (QQQQ) jumped +2.52% today.

The rate cut decision stoked some inflation concerns and helped drive up commodities prices.

Spot gold is positioned to test the '06 high. As mentioned, a bullish breakout above this level will spark an intermediate-term rally that will propel prices into the 800 level.

Crude oil had moved into the "no-man-land" [uncharted territory] followed the rate cut announcement. This is bullish. Next stop: $90.

Let's take a look at the major index charts:

The Standard & Poors 500 Index (daily) chart above addresses a short-term time frame. The board market index broke out above the one-month old pennant. This is, of course, bullish. As mentioned, today's upside breakout will set the bullish tone for the rest of the month and hence, setting the stage for a test of July's high.

The Dow Jones Industrials Average (daily) chart above addresses a short-term time frame. Similar to the S&P 500, the blue-chip index had also broke out from a mini-pennant and is testing resistant at August's high. As mentioned, an advance to above this will set the stage for a retest of July's high. An upside follow-through will confirm this.

Bottom line: as noted above, today's FED induced rally had set the stage for a test of July's high. Although market might take some time to digest today's huge gain. With that said, expect prices to move sideway with a positive bias tomorrow.

(By：Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)