Capital Essence Blog - 錢途集團: Sep 13, 2007

Stocks Up, Energy Up

[Capital Essence NewsDesk] As predicted, energy (XOI +1%) added on to previous gain. The sector gains about 6% immediately followed our bullish comments a couple days ago.

Editor's Note: below are just some trading ideas flow from our latest Headlines.

"Cubes Speculator Bulletin"

September 12, 2007 @ 8:09 PM

Signal: Buy.
Today's buy signal could be the beginning of the third buying wave – starting from August 16's low.

September 13, 2007 @ 11:40 AM

As expected, the "cubes" bounced off previous ~~low~~ close and tested yesterday's high. Does it sound familiar? You betcha. It's still stuck in the range.
Expect QQQQ to bounce back & forth within the $49.30-$48.90 trading range for the day.
It's testing the top end of the range as I type, so more likely than not, it'll be heading down or at least basing sideway in a next 60 min or so.

September 13, 2007 @ 3:05 PM

Breadth is 1:1 on the NAZ and 1:2 positive on the big board.
The "Cubes" seems to hang on very well to the $49.15 level.
More likely than not, the tape is going to close this way.

Just so that you know, NASDAQ-100 ETF (QQQQ) settled around the $49.17 level Thursday after the test of the daily's high ran into a wave of selling pressure. You see, no matter how "bad" and/or how "tough" the tape is, we still can squeeze a couple of pennies out of it, like here and there, if we wanted to.

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技術前瞻：週四大盤將偏於負面

Editor's note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence's CEM News on September 12, 2007. It's being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2007年9月13日 (週四) 的市場技術分析。

在昨天的前瞻分析中我們說過："週二的反彈的確令人欣喜，但我們還是對此次反彈的實際意義持謹慎態度……除非出現相反的證據，交易區間仍將是關注的重點。"——果然，週三股市幾乎收於平盤。

能源股指數 (XOI)成為昨天焦點。協同原油價格的上漲，能源板塊攀升——11月份交割的原油期貨價格上漲1.54美元，每桶報收79.77美元。此前，美國政府報告指出，上週美國石油供應數減少了701萬桶，而之前分析師們對這一數目的預測僅為270萬桶。

在我們對石油服務類板塊(OSX)做出看漲評論之後，該板塊立即大漲5%。因此，我們仍相信從長遠的觀點來看，能源股將是相對持久的贏家。

然而，受德州儀器 (TXN)令人失望的第三財季盈利預期的影響，科技股指數(SOX)昨天收於盤中最低點。

技術面而言，SOX跌破上升趨勢線的支撐位預示著8月16日的低點將再次受到考驗。請記住，如果該指數對8月低點的防守失敗，整個科技領域都將遭受壓力。談到科技股，我們於9月12日美東時間下午1點在"Cubes Speculation Bulletin"文章中指出："QQQQ似乎已做好了回調的準備。如果QQQQ在一個小時左右之內沒能突破當日高點——約49.37美元，回調的預測將得到確認。此外我們預計當天低點——約48.80美元也將再次受到考驗。該ETF 跌破49.10美元將可能成為下跌趨勢的導火索。"。果不其然，美東時間9月12日下午3點，QQQQ首次跌破49.10美元，之後該納斯達克100 ETF (QQQQ)繼續走低，並一度跌至48.87美元。當日交易的任何看跌期權在不到一小時內都能獲得至少20%的收益。

來看主要股指：

上面是標普500指數的短期日線圖。如前所料，該指數繼續在50日均線下方的橫向區間打底。這當然是看跌的信號。我們說過，除非該指數站上1500點，我們仍持謹慎態度。短期支撐位約為1439點。1470點-1500點區間為該指數的一層阻力位。

上面是道指的短期日線圖。和標普500指數類似，道指在初次考驗50日均線阻力位遭遇拋壓之後，也幾乎收於平盤。預計該指數未來幾天會在13400-13000點區間內來回波動。

總結：週三的交易狀況表明週四大盤將偏於負面。今天大盤跌破昨日低點將確認這一點，同時預計週一低點也將受到考驗。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It's now available at a monthly rate.

Negative Bias

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Thursday September 13, 2007.

As predicted right here in the previous Market Outlook: "Tuesday rally is definitely refreshing, though, we'd caution against reading too much into the rally…until proven otherwise, trading range remains the name of the game" – equity market close around the flat-line Wednesday.

Energy (XOI, +0.69%) was a shinny spot today. The sector jumped in conjunction with crude oil prices – the November delivery gained $1.54 to $79.77 per barrel after the government reported that oil inventories fell 7.01 million barrels in the latest week. Analysts had been expecting a drawdown of only 2.7 million barrels.

The oil service (OSX) rose about 5% immediately followed our bullish comment on the sector. And we continue to believe that energy will be a relative secular winner in a long run.

Technology (SOX, -1.94%) ended the session at the worst-level of the day amid a disappointing third quarter updates from Texas Instruments (TXN, -1.68%).

Technically speaking, a breakdown to below support at the one rising trendline indicates a retest of August 16's low. Bear in mind that a failure to hold above August's low will pressure the entire tech universe. In speaking of tech stocks, we've opined in the September 12 "Cubes Speculation Bulletin" around 1 PM ET that "QQQQ seems to be ready for a pullback. A failure to take out today's high @ $49.37 in about an hour or so will confirm this. Expect a retest of today's low around $48.80. The downside trigger would be a decline to below $49.10." Just so that you know, after an initial break down below $49.10 around 3 PM ET, the NASDAQ-100 ETF (QQQQ) followed through to the downside and hit as low as $48.87. Any downside put option traded could have made, at least 20% in less than an hour.

Let's take a look at the major index charts:

The Standard & Poors 500 Index (daily) chart above addresses a short-term time frame. As expected, the board market index continues to base sideway beneath the 50-day moving average. The action is, of course, bearish. As mentioned, we'd remain skeptical until or unless the index moves above the 1500 level. Short-term support is around 1439. The index has a layer of resistant that runs from 1470 to 1500.

The Dow Jones Industrials Average (daily) chart above addresses a short-term time frame. Similar to the S&P 500, the blue-chips index had also settled around the flat-line after an initial test of resistant at the 50-day moving average had caught some selling interests. Expect the index to bounce back and forth within the 13400-13000 trading ranges in a next couple of days.

Bottom line: Wednesday trading actions suggested a negative bias into Thursday session. A decline to below Wednesday's low will confirm this and a test of Monday's low is, therefore, expected.

Until next time, good luck.

(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)