Capital Essence Blog - 錢途集團: Sep 12, 2007

Stocks Flat, Cubes Speculator Bulletin Up

[Capital Essence NewsDesk] As predicted in the previous Market Outlook "Tuesday rally is definitely refreshing, though, we'd caution against reading too much into the rally…until proven otherwise, trading range remains the name of the game" - stocks closed around the flat-line Wednesday.

Editor's Note: below are just some trading ideas flow from our latest Headlines.

"Cubes Speculator Bulletin"

September 11, 2007 @ 11:27 PM:

The "cubes" is still trading in a range and we don't expect to see big moves…it will possibly trade between the pre-defined support and resistant tomorrow.

September 12, 2007 @ 12:47 PM:

QQQQ seems to be ready for a pullback. A failure to take out the noon high @ $49.37 in about an hour or so will confirm this. Expect a retest of today's low around $48.80. The downside trigger would be a decline to below $49.10.

September 12, 2007 @ 3:17 PM:

As predicted, the "cubes" breaks below $49.10. Although, it's going to be tough for the bears to push the prices below morning's low.
Breadth is slightly negative and we expect the tape to close this way.
Day traders should cover the position ASAP.

Just so that you know, after an initial break down below $49.10 around 3 PM ET, NASDAQ-100 ETF (QQQQ) followed through to the downside and hit as low as $48.87. Any downside put option traded could have made, at least 20% in less than an hour.

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技術前瞻：謹慎看待大盤反彈

Editor's note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence's CEM News on September 11, 2007. It's being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2007年9月12日 (週三) 的市場技術分析。

對聯儲下週降息的普遍預期令市場情緒得到安撫，股市週二反彈，10個經濟板塊當日漲幅均超過1%。如前所料，黃金投資者是降息預期的直接受益者。現貨黃金昨日每盎司報收712.20美元，為2006年5月11日以來最高價，距27年來的高點僅差7.60美元。

在我們對黃金做出看漲評論之後，金價連續四天上揚，累計漲幅約30美元。如今，黃金開始對06年高點——約730美元的關鍵阻力位發起挑戰。當前我們雖無法得知此次考驗成功與否，但如能成功突破該價位，將激發金價向800美元挺進。

科技股也出現反彈。費城半導體股指數(SOX)昨天上漲4點多，漲幅約為0.82%。可以看出，該指數在其日線圖中已經形成了複雜的倒頭肩形態。如果沒有猜錯，該指數若能成功站在513點這一看漲突破點之上，將引發一次目標為7月高點——約550點的加速上漲行情。目前距該點位有10%的差幅。

來看主要股指：

上面是標普500指數的短期日線圖。昨天的反彈將該指數推至其200日均線的關鍵阻力位之上。這是看漲信號，但是我們還是要告誡投資者不要對昨天的反彈做出過分解讀。在該指數運行至倍受關注的1500點的上方之前，我們仍將保持懷疑的態度。當前支撐位為8月16日低點——約1370點。1460 點-1500點區間為該指數的一層阻力位。

上面是道指的短期日線圖。顯然，該指數開始挑戰50日均線的關鍵阻力位。我們說過，持續突破該阻力位預示著8月高點將再次受到考驗。當前支撐位為8月16日低點——約12500點。13500-14000點區間為該指數的一層阻力位。

總結：週二的反彈的確令人欣喜，但是正如之前所說，我們還是對此次反彈的實際意義持謹慎態度。如果今天大盤走低，8月16的低點將再次成為關注的焦點。簡言之，除非出現相反的證據，交易區間仍將是關注的重點。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It's now available at a monthly rate.

Trading range remains intact

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Wednesday September 12, 2007.

Equity market rallied Tuesday with all 10 economic sectors gained more than 1% for the day amid a generalized relief that the FED will cut interest rates in next week's meeting. As expected, gold investors were directly benefited from the specter of the lower rates. Spot gold closed at $712.20 a troy ounce Tuesday, its highest settlement since May 11, 2006, and is just $7.60 away from its 27-year high.

Gold rose for 4 consecutive sessions or about $30 immediately followed our bullish comment. The commodity is now set to challenge key resistant at '06 high, about $730. At this moment it's impossible to know whether this level can be taken out or not. Although, a sustain breakout above this level will spark an intermediate-term bullish move to the $800 level.

As discussed, tech stocks added on the previous gain. The PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index (SOX) gained more than 4 points or +0.82% for the day. As you can see, the index had printed a complex inverse Head-Shoulder pattern on the daily chart. Should the text book stands true, a bullish breakout above the 513 level will trigger an upside acceleration toward July's high, about 550. That's about 10% from where we sit.

Let's take a look at the major index charts:

The Standard & Poors 500 Index (daily) chart above addresses a short-term time frame. Today's rally had helped to push the board market index to above key resistant at the area of the 200-day moving average. This is bullish, though, we'd caution against reading too much into today's rally. With that said, we'd remain skeptical until or unless the index moves above the closely watch 1500 level. Support is at August 16's low about 1370. The index has a layer of resistant that runs from 1470 to 1500.

The Dow Jones Industrials Average (daily) chart above addresses a short-term time frame. Apparently, the blue-chips index is set to challenge key resistant at the 50-day moving average. As mentioned, a sustain breakout above this level suggests a retest of August's high. Support is at August 16's low about 12500. The index has a layer of resistant that runs from 13500 to 14000.

Bottom line: Tuesday rally is definitely refreshing, though, as noted above, we'd caution against reading too much into the rally. To be sure, wait for an upside follow-through. On the same token, if the market goes down tomorrow, then the "August 16 low" will be back in the spot-light. In short, until proven otherwise, trading range remains the name of the game.

Until next time, good luck.

(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)