Capital Essence Blog - 錢途集團: Sep 11, 2007

Gold up, Tech Stocks Up

[Capital Essence NewsDesk] Spot gold soared Tuesday, up almost $10 to $721 per troy ounce – a new closing high. The commodity rose for 4 consecutive sessions or about $30 since our bullish comment.

Further, as discussed, the PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX) had also gained more than 4 points or about 1% to 500.38 Tuesday.

You see, successful trading is all about the quack count. If the ducks align, like this morning, we'll give you a ping in advance so that you'll have sufficient time to "hit 'em hard". When they don't, like Monday, we'll also chime in so that you can take a day off and go play golf. It's so easy, even a 10 years old kid can do it.

As usual, the "Swing Trader Bulletin" continues to do credibly well with a majority of the portfolio holdings and the newly setups are not only moving well on the expected direction but also adding on the attractive unrealized gains.

Editor's Note: below are just some trading ideas flow from our latest Headlines.

"Cubes Speculator Bulletin" September 8, 2007

"There is a high probability for a surprise rebound into the $49 level, which could take place before mid-week"

The NASDAQ-100 ETF (QQQQ) bounced as high as $48.99 Tuesday. Any call options traded should have made about 30%.

Note: if you like the excitement of TRIPLE DIGITS wins with a really FAST turnaround; you should really check this out.

Want more investing ideas? Check out Capital Essence's Newsletter Services - "best-of-web" technical analysis.

Stocks Flat, Gold up

[Capital Essence NewsDesk] Spot gold soared Tuesday, up almost $10 to $721 per troy ounce – a new closing high. The commodity rose for 4 consecutive sessions or about $30 since our bullish comment.

Further, as discussed, the PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX) had also gained more than 4 points or about 1% to 500.38 Tuesday.

Editor's Note: below are just some trading ideas flow from our latest Headlines.

"Cubes Speculator Bulletin" September 8, 2007

"There is a high probability for a surprise rebound into the $49 level, which could take place before mid-week"

The NASDAQ-100 ETF (QQQQ) bounced as high as $48.99 Tuesday. Any call options traded should have made about 30%.

Note: if you like the excitement of TRIPLE DIGITS wins with a really FAST turnaround; you should really check this out.

Want more investing ideas? Check out Capital Essence's Newsletter Services - "best-of-web" technical analysis.

技術前瞻：待形勢明朗後再下注

Editor's note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence's CEM News on September 10, 2007. It's being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2007年9月11日 (週二) 的市場技術分析。

經歷了上週五的巨幅拋賣之後，股市受到英特爾公司(INTC)調升第三財季營收預期的激勵，週一開盤反彈。雖然英特爾股價沒有隨之高漲，但來自英特爾的好消息卻助漲了半導體板塊的上揚。事實上，英特爾昨日收盤下跌18美分，跌至25.29美元，跌幅為0.71%。而半導體板塊指數(SOX)當日則上漲了近3點，漲幅達0.59%。

提到科技股，在9月8日的"Cubes Speculator Bulletin"中我們已經指出："QQQQ正設法在48美元位置處打底。因此該ETF『突然』反彈至49美元的可能性極高…密切關注大盤走勢，堅持止損策略。不要對減倉感到難為情…持有資金是獲得財務自由的另一關鍵。"不出所料，週一上午，納斯達克100 ETF(QQQQ)一度漲至48.75美元。

顯然，SOX正在200日均線這一關鍵技術支撐位附近築底。只要該指數能守在該支撐位上方，SOX將可能重新考驗7月高點。該指數如能進一步突破上週高點——約513點——這一點將得到確認。

來看主要股指：

上面是標普500指數的短期日線圖。該指數昨日表現跌宕起伏，下跌14點之後便止跌反轉，一度上漲了9點，但最終回到平盤附近，以略微低收結束當日交易。技術面而言，昨天的盤面表現完全看跌，而且也在意料之中。當前支撐位為8月16日低點——約1370點。1460點-1500點區間為該指數的一層阻力位。

上面是道指的短期日線圖。顯然，該指數也試圖在200日均線附近的關鍵技術位置建立一個底部。一旦該指數在當前水平位置附近穩定下來，8月高點 ——約13500點至少將受到考驗。儘管如此，請記住，如果該指數沒能守住200日均線這一關鍵支撐位，大盤重新考驗8月低點的可能性將增大。當前支撐位為8月16日低點——約12500點。13500-14000點區間為該指數的一層阻力位。

總結：週一的交易狀況表明投資者等著在週二下注。週二，聯儲主席伯南克將於美東時間上午11點就全球收支不平衡問題發表講話，而同時在維也納召開的歐佩克會議，石油輸出國有望保持日出產配額2580萬桶的數目不變。因此，無論今天會發生什麼，都將對本週餘下幾天的走勢產生影響。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It's now available at a monthly rate.

Hold ‘em

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Tuesday September 11, 2007.

On the heel of last Friday's massive sell-off, stocks opened Monday session with a positive bias amid an upbeat third quarter outlook from Intel (INTC). Intel's good news had helped to push the Semiconductor Sector higher though failed to boost its own stock. As a matter of fact, Intel closed down 18 cents or -0.71% to $25.29; whereas the Semiconductor Sector Index (SOX) gained almost 3 points or +0.59% for the day.

In speaking of tech stocks, we've opined in the September 8 "Cubes Speculator Bulletin" that "QQQQ is trying to build a base around the $48 level. There is a high probability for a "surprise" rebound into the $49 level… Keep a close eye on the tape, respects the stop, and hence, do not feel shy to take some money off the table…preserve capital is another important key to financial freedom" – the NASDAQ 100 ETF (QQQQ) bounced as high as $48.75 Monday morning.

Apparently, SOX is trying to crave out a base around the area of the key technical support – the 200-day moving average. The index could be set for a retest of the July's high as long as the index holds above this level. A sustain advance to above last week's high about 513 will confirm this.

Let's take a look at the major indices charts:

The Standard & Poors 500 Index (daily) chart above addresses a short-term time frame. The index settled slightly lower for the day after some roller-coaster action late in Monday session that saw the index swing from a loss of 14 points to a gain of 9 points and then back to the flat-line. Technically speaking, today trading action is totally bearish and this is expected. Support is at August 16's low about 1370. The index has a layer of resistant that runs from 1460 to 1500.

The Dow Jones Industrials Average (daily) chart above addresses a short-term time frame. Apparently, the blue-chips index is trying to build a base around the key technical area – the 200-day moving average. We're looking for a test of, at least, August's high about 13500 as soon as the index stabilizes around the current level. Although, bear in mind that, a failure to hold above key support the 200-day moving average will increase the probability for a retest of August's low. Support is at August 16's low about 12500. The index has a layer of resistant that runs from 13500 to 14000.

Bottom line: Monday trading action suggested that traders are holding their bets until tomorrow. Tuesday key headlines are including the Fed Chairman Bernanke' speech on global imbalances from at 11:00 ET and the OPEC meeting in Vienna where the cartel is expected to leave production quotas unchanged at 25.8 million barrels per day. With that said, whatever happens tomorrow is likely to influence stocks prices for the rest of the week.

Until next time, good luck.

(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

SmartReport® - ETF Picks & Pans

Editor's Note: This is a small sample of the content available on the SmartReport®. To receive the full length report, please subscribe. It's now available at a monthly rate.

ETF Picks: Member please login for exact Trigger, Stop, Target…etc.

MYY, PSQ, KRE, DXD, MZZ, QID, SDS.

ETF Pans: none

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Want more investing ideas? Check out SmartReport®, "best-of-web" market analysis.

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