Stocks Tank, Cubes Up

[Capital Essence NewsDesk] We've predicted in the previous Market Outlook that "stocks look vulnerable for a fresh round of profit taking" – equity market tanked Wednesday with the majority of major indices lost an average 1% each.

Editor's Note: below are just some trading ideas flow from our latest Headlines.

"Cubes Speculator Bulletin" September 4, 2007

• As discussed, we've rolled out of the QQQQ October 48 Call Option (QQQJV) position as the QQQQ tested the $50 level for a +80% profit.
• The momentum indicator hit the level that precedes a small price correction in the past.
• The "cubes" looks vulnerable for a pullback

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Overall it was a naughty day on the Street. Although, the "Swing Trader Bulletin" managed to finish slightly higher for the day. As a matter of fact, after Cisco Systems Inc (CSCO) achieved its first target for a 5.58% profit yesterday, 4 out of the 6 different Portfolio holdings are hanging on the attractive unrealized gains.

 

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技術前瞻：新一輪獲利回吐最早今天出現

Editor's note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence's CEM News on September 4, 2007. It's being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2007年9月5日 (週三) 的市場技術分析。

延伸上週五的解圍性反彈，股市週二高收。在10個高漲的經濟板塊中，能源板塊(OSX)領漲。受颶風預報影響，原油價格報收於75美元大關之上。

如前所料，PHLX Oil Service Sector Index (OSX) 正朝考驗7 月高點的方向邁進(見上面的OSX圖)。事實上，自我們對OSX做出看漲評論以來，該板塊的漲幅已經超過了5%。我們說過，如果該指數持續突破7月高點， OSX考驗 300美元水平的可能性將增大。

值得注意的是：納指昨天表現超出其他大盤指數，積累了自2003年11月以來四日漲幅的最好成績。當日，該指數大漲1.6%。提到科技股，我們在之前的"Cubes Speculator Bulletin"的文章中說過——"QQQQ正在考驗看漲的倒頭肩形態的頸線阻力位，這在振幅指標上已非常顯著地標明。技術面而言，持續突破這一阻力位將增大該ETF考驗7月高點的可能性。從振幅指標來看，看漲突破的可能性高達70%…[預計QQQQ將考驗50美元大關]。"

不出所料，納斯達克100 ETF (QQQQ)週二果斷突破並考驗了50美元大關。近期建倉的看漲期權昨天已鎖定三位數的驚人收益。

來看主要股指：

上面是標普500指數的短期日線圖。該指數正在考驗50日均線和長達3個月的橫向趨勢線附近的"雙重阻力位"。當前，我們無法得知考驗能否成功，但 如果失敗，該指數重新考驗8月低點支撐位的可能性將增大。1430點-1370點區間為該指數的一個支撐位。目前，短期阻力位為8月8日高點——約 1504點。我們說過，該指數如能持續突破這一短期阻力位，大盤將被推至上檔7月高點的關鍵阻力位區域——約1555點。

上面是道指的短期日線圖。和標普500指數類似，該指數也已撞入50日均線的阻力位。前面說過，這是一次關鍵的考驗，因為一旦考驗失敗，則預示著始 於7月中旬的二級盤整將持續，由此也增加了大盤重新考驗8月低點的可能性。關鍵支撐位為8月16日低點——約12500點。短期阻力位為8月8日高點 ——約13700點。如前所述，如果該指數能持續突破該阻力位，大盤將被推至上方7月高點的關鍵阻力位區域——約14000點。

總結：從圖表分析，股市很容易遭到新一輪獲利回吐盤的攻擊，而這最快將於今天發生。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

Stocks look vulnerable to a profit taking

Editor's note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence's CEM News on September 4, 2007. It's being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Wednesday September 05, 2007.

Equity market extend Friday's relief rally and close higher Tuesday. Of the 10 economic sectors trading higher, Energy (OSX, +2.71%) led the charge as crude for closed above the $75 mark for the first time on a month following updated hurricane forecasts.

(Click on image to enlarge)

As expected, the PHLX Oil Service Sector Index (OSX) is heading for a test of the July's high (see the OSX chart above). As a matter of fact, the sector had jumped more than 5% since our bullish comment. As mentioned, a sustain breakout above the July's high will increase the probability for a test of the 300 level.

It worth notice that the NASDAQ outperformed its blue-chip counterparts and logging its best four-day advance since November 2003, surge 1.6% for the day. In speaking of tech stocks, as discussed in our previous "Cubes Speculator Bulletin" – "QQQQ is testing resistant at the inverted bullish Head-Shoulder pattern's neckline, which is printed very clearly on the Breadth Indicator. Technically speaking, a sustain breakout above this level will increase the probability for a test of July's high. As far as the breadth indicator concerns, the probability for a bullish breakout is as high as 70% … [expect the QQQQ to test the $50 mark]."

(Click on image to enlarge)

As you can see, the NASDAQ 100 ETF (QQQQ) broke out decisively Tuesday and tested the expected $50 level. The recent call option setup locked in an amazing triple digit gain today.

Let's take a look at the major index charts:

(Click on image to enlarge)

The Standard & Poors 500 Index (daily) chart above addresses a short-term time frame. The board market index is testing the "double-resistant" at the area of the 50-day moving average and the three-month lateral trend-line. At this moment, it's impossible to know whether the index can take out this resistant or not. Although a failure to push prices above this level will increase the probability for a retest of support at Augusts' low. The index has a layer of support that runs from 1430 to 1370. Short-term resistant is at August 08's high, about 1504. As mentioned, a sustain breakout above this level will propel prices into the area of key overhead resistant at July's high, about 1555.

(Click on image to enlarge)

The Dow Jones Industrials Average (daily) chart above addresses a short-term time frame. Similar to the S&P 500 Index, the blue-chips index had slammed into resistant at the area of the 50-day moving average. As noted above, this is a critical test because a failure to take out this level suggests that the secondary correction, that started on mid-July, has a leg, and hence, increases the chance for a retest of August' low. Key support is at August 16's low, about 12500. Short-term resistant is at August 08's high, about 13700. As mentioned, a sustain breakout above this level will propel prices into the area of key overhead resistant at July's high, about 14K.

Bottom line: as far as the chart concerns, stocks look vulnerable for a fresh round of profit taking, which could take place as soon as tomorrow.

Until next time, good luck.

By: Michelle Mai