Fast Turnaround

[Capital Essence NewsDesk] As discussed yesterday and today morning on the "Cubes Speculator Bulletin", we've peeled off the entire downside puts into Wednesday mid-day weakness for a total gain of +70% in less than 2 sessions. You see, it's all about timing!

Editor's Note: below are just some trading ideas flow from our latest Headlines.

"The bull play brave" @ 11:45 AM

The bulls had put on the brave face and pushed the tape higher.

Breadth remains strong throughout morning, 1: 1 positive on the NAZ and 1:5 positive on the big board.

The tape will stay this way [read: positive] into the close.

You see, successful trading is all about the quack count. If the ducks align, unleash the hounds. When they don't, like this morning, we'll give you a ping so that you can take your profit and go play golf. Easy, even a 10 years old kid can do it.

 

If you enjoy the excitement of TRIPLE DIGITS wins with a really FAST turnaround. You should check this out.

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Want more investing ideas? Check out Capital Essence Newsletter Services - the "best-of-web" technical analysis.

技術前瞻：8月16日低點成關鍵支撐位

Editor's Note: this is the free edition of Capital Essence's Market Outlook. To receive the daily edition everyday before market open, please subscribe. It's now available at a monthly rate.

這是Capital Essence對2007年8月29日 (週三) 的市場技術分析。

在8月24日的前瞻分析中我們指出"銀行股形態收縮，正等待大行情出現。如果分析沒有錯誤，該指數的移動方向將是下行。" 果然，隨著投資銀行連續第二天降級，金融股週二形勢惡化。美林證券表示信貸市場收緊將影響花旗集團 (C)、貝爾斯登 (BSC) 和雷曼兄弟 (LEH)的利潤。而一則關於State Street (STT)擁有220億美元資產抵押商務本票的報道更是進一步加劇了金融股的下跌。

顯然，銀行股(BKX)正朝重新考驗8月16日低點——約為100點的位置邁進。我們說過，如果該指數跌破這一水平，金融股將再跌10% 。

事實上，週二的交易狀況和我們在之前在"Cubes Speculator Bulletin" 中預測的相當一致——"QQQQ 正在考驗第三個目標( 約為48.40美元)附近的阻力位。這是該股巨幅下跌前的最後一站。"——不出所料，納斯達克100指數EFT (QQQQ)在上週五漲至48.24美元之後形勢開始惡化，昨天跌幅超過2%。新建倉的QQQQ 9月份到期的看跌期權則獲得了超過90%的驚人未兌現利潤。

來看主要股指：

上面是標普500指數的短期日線圖。如前所料，該指數在考驗了長達4周的下跌趨勢線附近的阻力位之後翻身向下滑落，從而確認了我們"8月16日低點將被重新考驗"的觀點。當前的支撐位約為1410-1370.點。

上面是道指的中期周線圖。和標普500指數類似，該指數昨天同樣途中轉向。當前支撐位為8月16日的低點，約12800-12500點。

總結：和預料的一樣，股市正在努力重新考驗8月16日的低點。當前，我們無法得知考驗成功與否。但是，如果大盤沒能在這一位置吸引到買家，標普500指數2006年的看漲突破點——約1325點被考驗的可能性將增大。

Testing the low

Editor's Note: this is the free edition of Capital Essence's Market Outlook. To receive the daily edition everyday before market open, please subscribe. It's now available at a monthly rate.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Wednesday August 29, 2007.

We've noted in the August 24 Market Outlook that "bank stocks are coiling for a major move.  And if the textbook stands true, the direction of the move is to the downside" - financial stocks turned for the worse Tuesday amid a second straight day of investment bank downgrades. Merrill Lynch said that tighter credit markets will hurt the earnings of Citigroup (C), Bear Stearns (BSC), and Lehman Brothers (LEH).  The decline was exacerbated by a report that said State Street (STT) had exposure to about $22 billion of asset-backed commercial paper conduits.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Apparently, the BKX is heading for a retest of the August 16's low, about 100.  As mentioned, a failure to hold above this level will open the door for another 10% drop in the financial stocks.

As a matter of fact, Tuesday's trading action was pretty consistent with what we've predicted in our previous "Cubes Speculator Bulletin" – "QQQQ is testing resistant at the area of the third target, about $48.40. This is the last stop before a serious decline kicks in" – the NASDAQ 100 Index EFT (QQQQ), after hit as high as $48.24 last Friday, the stock turned for the worse and dropped more than 2% today.  The newly setup, QQQQ September Put Option is carried an amazing unrealized gain of more than 90%.

Let's take a look at the major index charts:

(Click on image to enlarge)

The Standard & Poors 500 Index (daily) chart above addresses a short-term frame.  As predicted, the index rolled over [to the downside] followed the test of resistant at the area of the four-week falling trendline and hence, confirmed our "August 16's low will be retested" notion.  Support is about 1410-1370.

(Click on image to enlarge)

The Dow Jones Industrials Average (weekly) chart above addresses an intermediate-term frame.  Similar to the S&P 500 Index, the blue-chips index also rolled over today.  Support is at August 16's low, about 12800-12500.

Bottom line: as expected, equity market is working on a retest of the August 16's low.  At this moment, it's impossible to know whether the test holds or not.  Although, a failure to attract buyers at that level will increase the probability for a test of the S&P '06 bullish breakout point, about 1325.

Until next time, good luck.