Market up 1%, Cubes Speculator Bulletin gained 70%

[Capital Essence NewsDesk] We've opined in our previous Market Outlook that "it worth notice that the financial stocks had refused to go down in the face of some bearish news … suggests these stocks are stabilizing… the urgency to sell had also been diminishing", equity market closed higher Wednesday with a majority of major indices gained an average 1% for the day.

Editor's Note: below are just some trading ideas flow from our latest Headlines.

==================================================

"Cubes Speculator Bulletin" - August 22, 2007 @ 11am

==================================================

· As we've opined in the previous update "highest price the "cubes" can hit is about $47.30-$47.50. And this is the area, where we'll take the rest of our profit"- and this is what we did. We've sold the last leg (25%) of the QQQIS (September 45 Call) position as the QQQQ entered the $47.50 zone for a +70% profit.

· The "cubes" is still consolidating around the $47.50 level as we type. Although, we think that it will have to, at least, close morning gap @ $47.20. Aggressive traders might try to get a position for a "short-term trade".

As a matter of fact, the QQQQ moved lower shortly after our morning update and hit as low as $47.27 before moved higher into the close. Any call option bought around this level should have made at least 10% intraday.

==================================================

"Swing-Trader Bulletin" Portfolio Update August 22, 2007 @ 12 PM

===================================================

· Perry Ellis (PERY) seems to be consolidating previous gains. We've sold the last leg this morning @ the trailing stop-loss point. This stock had brought us a total profit of 13% in as little as 2 sessions. This is incredible.

· The recent set up Vasco Data Security (VDSI) continues to move well on the expected direction, rose more than 3% this morning on good volume. The stock holds an amazing 6% unrealized gains in just 2 sessions.

· The newly set up(s) had also triggered and moved higher on heavy volume. This is, of course, bullish.

It worth notice that Blue Nile (NILE) profiled on Tuesday evening as a potential buy gained as much as 8% intraday before pulled back and settle slightly higher for the day.

==============================================================

Want more investing ideas? Check out Capital Essence Newsletter Services - the "best-of-web" technical analysis.

技術前瞻：周內反轉可能在今天出現

Editor's Note: this is the free edition of the Market Outlook. To receive the daily edition everyday before market open, please subscribe. It's now available at a monthly rate.

這是Capital Essence對2007年8月22日 (週三) 的市場技術分析。

在昨天的前瞻分析中我們指出："週一的盤面表明週二的交易狀況將偏於負面。"果然，週二股市略微低收，道指下跌30點，跌至13090點。

總的來說，昨天盤面較為複雜。早些時候大盤曾試圖上揚，但最終受到能源股強烈拋壓的抵制。儘管如此，事實上週二的交易狀況和我們之前在 "Cubes Speculator Bulletin"的預測相當一致——"市場交易區間保持良好，並有望出現高收。股價攀高之前似乎正在盤整"。果然，納斯達克100 指數ETF (QQQQ) 當日收盤上漲51美分，漲幅為1.14%。我們近期推薦的QQQIS(9月份到期履約價為45美元的看漲期權)未兌現利潤已超過50%。

儘管如此，值得注意的是，一些利空消息——如裡士滿聯儲總裁萊克(Lacker)表示金融市場的波動不會成為是聯儲降息的理由——本應在近幾週惡化金融股走勢，但金融股卻沒有走低，這是令人鼓舞的信號，它表明金融股正趨於穩定。

圖中可以看出，金融股指數(BKX)正在考驗"曾經的支撐位、現在的阻力位"。目前，成功突破該阻力位的可能性依然渺茫。儘管如此，現在看來，拋售的迫切性已經變弱，因此，該指數下跌的風險有限。

來看主要股指：

上面是標普500指數的短期日線圖。該指數繼續在200日均線阻力位的下方運行。我們說過，如果突破200日均線失敗，大盤再次考驗上週低點——約1370點的可能性將增大。今天大盤收於1439點之下將確認這一點。

上面是道指的短期日線圖。該指數繼續在看跌的"頭肩"型態的頸線阻力位下方運行。這不是好現象。因為我們說過，該阻力位如果防守成功則預示著大盤將再次考驗並有望下破近期低點——約12500點。今天該指數收盤低於13050點將確認這一點。

總結：週二的交易狀況表明，週三股市很可能出現大幅反轉。確認這一點大盤需跌破昨天低點。

“Swing-Trader Bulletin”: VDSI +6%; PERY gained +13%

Perry Ellis (PERY) seems to be consolidating previous gains. We've sold the last leg (20%) this morning @ the trailing stop-loss point. This stock had brough us a total profit of 13% is as little as 2 sessions. This is incredible.

The recent set up Vasco Data Security (VDSI) continues to move well on the expected direction, rose more than 3% this morning on good volume.  The stock holds an amazing 6% unrealized gains in just 2 sessions.

The newly set up(s) had also triggered and moved higher on heavy volume. This is, of course, bullish.

_______________________________________________________________

Want more investing ideas? Check out Capital Essence Newsletter Services - "best-of-web" technical analysis.

Mid-Week Reversal

Editor's Note: this is the free edition of the Market Outlook. To receive the daily edition everyday before market open, please subscribe. It's now available at a monthly rate.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Wednesday August 22, 2007.

We've opined in our previous Market Outlook that "Monday trading action suggested a negative bias into Tuesday trading session", equity market closed slightly lower Tuesday with the Dow lost 30 points to 13090.

Overall it was a very mix day as an early attempt to pull the tape up was cancelled out by the aggressive selling in the energy stocks.  Although, as a matter of fact, Tuesday trading action was pretty consistent with what we've predicted in the previous "Cubes Speculator Bulletin" – "Market breadth remains positive and seems to be supporting a positive closing. Price appears to be consolidating before a leg higher" – the NASDAQ 100 Index ETF (QQQQ) closed up 51 cents or 1.14% for the day.  The recent recommended holding, QQQIS (September 45 Call Option) is carrying an amazing unrealized gains of more than 50%.

Although, it worth notice that the financial stocks had refused to go down in the face of some bearish news [Richmond Fed President Lacker said market volatility does not warrant Fed rate cut] that would have roiled them in recent weeks was an encouraging sign that suggests these stocks are stabilizing.

(Click on image to enlarge)

As you can see, the Bank Index (BKX) is testing the water at the "previous-support-now-resistant" area.  At this stage, odds for an upside breakout is still …slim-to-none.  Although, it seems to us that, the urgency to sell had also been diminishing, and, the downside risk is, therefore, limited.

Let's take a look at the major index charts:

(Click on image to enlarge)

The Standard & Poors 500 Index (daily) chart above addresses a short-term frame.  The index continues to trade below the 200-day moving average as resistant.  As mentioned, a failure to take out this level will increase the probability for a retest of last week's low, around 1370.  A close below 1439 will confirm this.

(Click on image to enlarge)

The Dow Jones Industrials Average (daily) chart above addresses a short-term frame.   The blue chips index continues to trade below the bearish "Head-Shoulder" pattern's neckline as resistant.  And this is not good.  As mentioned, a failure to take out resistant at this level suggests that recent low, around 12500, will be retested and exceeded.  A close below 13050 will confirm this.

Bottom line: Tuesday trading action suggested that, more likely than not, we're going to have a wild mid-week reversal tomorrow.  A decline to below today's low will confirm this.

SmartReport® - Kissing the Belly

Editor's Note: This is a small sample of the content available on the SmartReport®. To receive the full length report, please subscribe. It's now available at a monthly rate.

Bonus stock pick: Qwest Communication Inc (Q).  The stock is kissing the belly of the two-year trendline. 

Set-up: reserved for member

As predicted, the Russell continues to outperformed its peers, the S&P 500 Index.  Although, it seems to have a difficult time around the area of key resistant level.

Wrap up: Price are now congesting in a range roughly bounded followed last week's bounce. Keep an eye on the major low (August 16).  More likely than not, this level will be retested and exceeded, though only marginally.

Set-up: reserved for member

_____________________________________________________________________

Want more investing ideas? Check out SmartReport®, "best-of-web" market analysis.