技術前瞻：高位賣壓不容忽視

Editor's Note: this is the free edition of the Market Outlook. To receive the daily edition everyday before market open, please subscribe. It's now available at a monthly rate.

這是Capital Essence對2007年8月20日 (週一) 的市場技術分析。

在上次的前瞻分析中我們預測："股市已經找到了短期底部"。果然，隨著美聯儲將貼現率調降半個百分點(從原先的6.25%降至5.75%)，上週五股市出現全面反彈。

毫無懸念，受信貸危機衝擊最大的金融版塊週五表現不凡，大漲3.53%。

如前所料， 銀行股指數(BKX) 週五考驗了大W型態(雙重底)頸線處的110點阻力位。當前該阻力位能否防守成功我們不得而知。儘管如此，112-115點的阻力位將更難突破。請記住， 如果金融股在該位置突破失敗，大盤將變得更糟糕。正如我們常說的那樣，金融股就是"風向標"，應予以密切關注。

在大幅高收的9個板塊中，能源板塊也同樣取得了驕人的成績。由於加勒比海東部迪安颶風升至3級，市場對墨西哥灣石油供應可能會中斷的擔憂加深，因此9月份交割的原油合約上漲1.4%，每桶報收72美元。

從圖中可以看出，石油股指數正在考驗一年來上升趨勢線的支撐位。這一點非常重要，因為如果考驗成功，由此引發的反彈有可能將油價推至八月早些時候的 高點——78.70美元。但如果考驗失敗，看跌的雙重頂型態將會形成，該指數將開始考驗50美元的關鍵支撐位。該點與當前位置相差22點(30%)。

來看主要股指：

上面是標普500指數的中期周線圖。我們曾預計："大盤將對200日均線附近的阻力位(約為1450點)進行考驗"。 果然，週五該指數上揚並考驗了1450點阻力位。到目前為止，考驗失敗。這至少在短期來說不很令人鼓舞。但是只要該指數能守住上週低點1370點，多頭將 佔據主動。相反，如果大盤跌破該位置，特別是當該指數還同時跌破春季低點1360點的時候，看跌的雙重頂型態將會形成。此後，大盤將開始考驗1160點水 平的關鍵支撐位。該點距此有285點(20%)之遙。

上面是道指的中期周線圖。如前所料，該指數從三重支撐 位處漂亮地進行了反彈。技術面而言，道指比標普500指數要強勢很多，因為該指數雖然跌了 1000點，至12000點，但從沒跌破長期的上升趨勢線(見圖)。因此，只要該指數能守住12000點位置，多頭就不必擔心。目前，短期支撐位約為上週 低點12500點，阻力位約為13500點。

上面是納指的中期周線圖。和其他兩大股指類似，以科技股為主的納指上週同樣波動劇烈。事實上，週五該指數的盤面表現和我們週四晚間在 "Cubes Speculator Bulletin"中預測的相當一致。當時我們說："顯然，浮多在週四交易結束之前已經將其大部分『存貨』出手。預計大盤週五走勢將轉為利好"。果然，納斯達克100 ETF QQQQ 上週五上漲了近2%。我們9月份到期的看漲期權兩天內已經獲利50%。

技術面而言，大盤在考驗了40周移動平均線的支撐位後出現了漂亮的反彈，這表明該指數可能已經找到了短期底部。儘管如此，這並不意味著糟糕的情況已 經結束。事實上，大盤考驗7月高點和4年來上升通道下邊界支撐位的可能性各佔一半。目前，短期支撐位為上週低點1386點，阻力位約為2540-2580 點。

總結：總的來講，上週具有緩和超賣作用的反彈的確令人振奮。但是，除非金融股能突破關鍵阻力位，我們預計高價區域還將遭到賣家兇猛的回擊。

Higher prices will be greeted by sellers

Editor's Note: this is the free edition of the Market Outlook. To receive the daily edition everyday before market open, please subscribe. It's now available at a monthly rate.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Monday August 20, 2007.

As we've predicted right here in our previous Market Outlook "market had found its short-term bottom", equity market rallied across the board Friday amid a surprise short-term rate cut – the US FED Reserve cut discount rate by 50 bps (to 5.75% from 6.25%).

(click on image to enlarge)

Unsurprisingly, the sector that had been hit the hardest by the mortgage lending and widening credit spreads crisis for several weeks, financial, led Friday rally with an impressive gain of 3.53%.

As predicted, the Bank Index (BKX) tested resistant at the big W (double bottom) pattern neckline @ 110 Friday. At this stage, it's impossible to know whether the resistant holds or not. Although there is an even tougher layer of resistant that runs from 112-115. Bear in mind that the tape could turn for the worse should the financial stocks frizzle out around this level. As we've always said, the financial stocks have been the "tells" and they should be on your trading radar.

Of the other nine sectors closing sharply higher, Energy turned in a similarly strong performance. Crude for September delivery rose about 1.4% and closed near $72/bbl as Dean strengthening into a category 3 hurricane in the Eastern Caribbean raised concerns about supply disruptions in the Gulf of Mexico.

(click on image to enlarge)

As you can see, the Oil Index is testing support at the one-year rising trendline. This is a very important level for a successful test will fuel a rally that might propel prices to the early Augusts' high about $78.70. And a failure test, meanwhile, will complete the bearish double top pattern; and hence, opens the doors for a test of the major support around the $50 level, that's about 22 points or 30% from where we sit.

Let's take a look at the major index charts:

(click on image to enlarge)

The Standard & Poors 500 Index (weekly) chart above addresses an intermediate-term frame. As we've predicted in the previous Market Outlook 「expect a test of resistant around the area of the 200-day moving average, around 1450」– see "Market had found its short-term bottom" August 17, 2007; the board market index advanced and tested resistant at the 1450 level Friday. So far, it held. This isn't very encouraging, at least in a short-term. Although as long as the index holds above last week's low @ 1370, the bulls shall prevail. On the other words, a breakdown below this level, especially if it's accompanied by a decline to below the spring's low of 1360 will complete the bearish double top pattern; and hence, opens the door for a test of major support around the 1160 level – that's about 285 points or 20% from where we sit.

(click on image to enlarge)

The Dow Jones Industrials Average (weekly) chart above addresses an intermediate-term frame. As expected, the blue chips index bounced off nicely from the triple support. Technically speaking, the Dow looks a lot stronger than its younger sister, the S&P 500 Index because it can drop as much as 1000 points, to about 12K, without bending the long-term uptrend (see chart). With that said, the bulls can sleep well as long as the index hangs above the 12K level. Short-term support is about last week's low @ 12500. Resistant is about 13500.

(click on image to enlarge)

The NASDAQ Composite Index (weekly) chart above addresses an intermediate-term frame. Similar to its peers, the tech rich index had also had a wild ride last week. As a matter of fact, Friday trading action was pretty consistent with what we've predicted in our Thursday evening "Cubes Speculator Bulletin" - 「apparently, the elephants had liquidated most their "inventories" by the end of Thursday trading session. We expected the tape to move with a positive bias Friday」- NASDAQ-100 ETF, QQQQ leaped almost 2% Friday. Our September call option holding had gained about 50% in just 2 days.

Technically speaking, the nice rebound followed the test of support at the area of the 40-week moving average suggested that the index might have found the short-term bottom. Although, this doesn't mean that the worse is over. As a matter of fact, the odds for a test of July's high to that of support at the four-year rising channel's lower border is 50-50. Short-term support is at this week's low, around 1386. Resistant is about 2540-2580.

Bottom line: general speaking, last week's oversold relieve rally was definitely refreshing. However, unless the financial stocks move above key resistant, we believe that higher prices will be greeted by sellers – aggressive sellers.