技術前瞻：短期底部已然形成

Editor's Note: this is the free edition of the Market Outlook. To receive the daily edition everyday before market open, please subscribe. It's now available at a monthly rate.

這是Capital Essence對2007年8月17日 (週五) 的市場技術分析。

隨著投資者信心從近期的信貸危機中逐步恢復，週四股市收復了當日大部分失地。標普500指數上漲0.3%，挽回了當日所有損失。道指下跌15 點，基本收回了先前340點的跌幅。以科技股為主的納指挽回先前大部分損失之後，收盤僅下跌0.3%。提到科技股，週四的交易狀況和我們當天中午12點左右在"Cubes Speculator Bulletin"中的預測非常一致。當時我們指出："多頭勢頭勇猛，並有意將大盤推高……垂直下跌趨勢看來已被打亂，股市理應出現一次快速回彈。"果然，納斯達克100 ETF(QQQQ)盤中一度跌至44.39美元，但之後迅速反轉，收復了大多數前期的損失。截至當日收盤，我們新購買的9月份到期的看漲期權依然獲得了 30%的未兌現利潤。

整個股市的積極情緒應歸功於金融股的一次反彈。

如前所料，銀行股指數(BKX)昨日在101點趨勢線支撐位附近形成了看漲的雙重底型態。這至少對當前而言是看漲的信號。如果該指數今天持續上揚，這一點將得到確認，而同時這也將增大該指數在未來幾天考驗101點的可能性。

來看主要股指：

上面是標普500指數的短期日線圖。如前所料，昨天該指數考驗了3月低點的支撐位(約為1375-1360點)並守住了這一關口。這具有看漲意味。預計未來幾天，大盤將對200日均線附近的阻力位(約為1450點)進行考驗。

上面是道指的短期日線圖。昨天，該指數在三重支撐位(3月份看漲突破點、200日均線和2年來的趨勢線)附近形成了帶有長下影線的實體。這當然是看漲信號。目前，支撐位約為12500點，阻力位約為13200點。

總結：總的來說，股市已經找到了短期底部。儘管如此，這並不意味著"信貸危機"已經結束。事實上，這才剛剛開始。

Market had found its short-term bottom

Editor's Note: this is the free edition of the Market Outlook. To receive the daily edition everyday before market open, please subscribe. It's now available at a monthly rate.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Friday August 17, 2007.

Equity market staged a big comeback Thursday, erased most of the day's losses as investors recover from latest credit crunch.  The broader market index, S&P 500, gained 0.3 percent, erasing all of the session's early losses.  The Dow Jones industrial average fell 15 points, regained virtually all of the day's losses, about 340 points. The tech-fueled NASDAQ Composite Index slid 0.3 percent, cutting bigger losses.  In speaking of tech, Thursday trading action was very consistent with what we've predicted in our Thursday "Cubes Speculator Bulletin" around 12pm - 「the bulls had put on the brave face and tried to push the tape higher…the vertical drop appears to be out of whack and the market is due for a snap back rally」- after hitting as low as $44.39, the NASDAQ-100 ETF, QQQQ, snapped back and regained most of the early losses.  Our newly September call option set up still carries a whopping 30% unrealized gains by the end of the day.

Contributed to the overall positive sentiment was a rebound in the financial stocks.

(click on image to enlarge)

As predicted, the Bank Index (BKX) printed a bullish double bottom pattern at the area of trendline support around 101.  This is bullish, at least for now.  An upside follow-through tomorrow will confirm this, and hence, increase the probability for a test of the 101 level in the upcoming days.

Let's take a look at the major index charts:

(click on image to enlarge)

The Standard & Poors 500 Index (daily) chart above addresses a short-term frame.  As predicted, the index tested support at March's low, around the 1375-1360 level, today.  So far, it held.  This is bullish.  Expect a test of resistant around the area of the 200-day moving average, around 1450, in the upcoming days.

(click on image to enlarge)

The Dow Jones Industrials Average (daily) chart above addresses a short-term frame.   The blue-chips index printed a bullish long tail bar at the area of triple support (the March bullish breakout point + 200-day moving average + two-year trendline); and this is, of course, bullish.  Support is about 12500.  Resistant is about 13200.

Bottom line: general speaking, the market had found its short-term bottom.  Although, this doesn't mean that the "credit crunch" is over.  As a matter of fact, it had just begun.