Capital Essence Late Day Update

Editor's Note: Below are just some trading ideas flow from our Newsdesk.

 

"Cubes Speculator Bulletin" - August 16, 2007 @ 12pm

• The "cubes" is testing the $45 level as I type. This is a very important level because it's the last stop before $42 (the spring's low).
• The bulls had put on the brave face and tried to push the tape higher.
• In term of trading, I've sold the last slew of the put into the morning low for about 200% gains.
• By the way, the vertical drop appears to be out of whack.

"Cubes Speculator Bulletin" - August 16, 2007 @ 1:44 pm

• As expected, the "cubes" appeared to be stabilized followed a test of support at the $45-$44.50 level.
• As mentioned, the vertical drop appears to be out of whack and the market is due for a snap back rally.
• Set up: (member only)

After hitting as low as $44.39, the QQQQ snapped back about 1 point. The newly set up options carry an amazing unrealized gains of 30%.

"Swing-Trader Bulletin" Portfolio Update

Despite the overall volatility, the "Swing-Trader Bulletin" continues to do incredibly well with the Vimpel Communication Ads (VIP) short position booked in a whopping gain of more than 12% in just 2 days. The short Phillips-Van Heusen Corp (PVH) position also gained as much as 8% intraday though spared most of the gains during the late rally. The "Swing-Trader Bulletin" Portfolio is up more than 22% year-to-date while the S&P 500 Index down about -0.35% YTD.

 

 

 

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技術前瞻：期權到期日前波動加劇

Editor's Note: this is the free edition of the Market Outlook. To receive the daily edition everyday before market open, please subscribe. It's now available at a monthly rate.

這是Capital Essence對2007年8月16日 (週四) 的市場技術分析。

正如我們週二晚間在"Cubes Speculator Bulletin"預言的那樣—— 波動區間進一步加大…股市可能將開出弱盤。果然，週三股市以低於前一個交易日開盤價開出，並且一路搖擺走低直至收盤。而每當大盤試圖從低處買進就會遭遇一股更為激烈的拋售的打壓。當日，道指跌至12861點，跌幅為1.29%。標普500指數跌至1406點，跌幅為1.39%。儘管如此，我們的QQQUV (QQQQ 9月份到期的履約價為48美元的看跌期權)僅四天就獲得了150%的未兌現利潤，著實令人驚喜。

昨天瀰漫股市的消極情緒緣於對信貸危機的新一輪的擔憂。而這也在意料之中，因為我們幾天前就已經說過："拋壓結束還遙遙無期"。

銀行股指數(BKX)昨天一直在考驗101點支撐位。此次考驗能否成功我們當前無從得知。但是，我們說過，這一點非常關鍵，因為一旦考驗成功，金融股將出現雙重底型態。相反，如果考驗失敗，該指數將再跌10%。

來看主要股指：

上面是標普500指數的短期日線圖。 昨天，該指數繼續下跌，因此也再次確認了對3月低點(約為1375-1360點)支撐位的考驗。目前，阻力位約為1460-1490點。

上面是道指的短期日線圖。昨天該指數同樣持續下跌，並在看跌的頭肩型態形成時對12800點的三重支撐位(見上圖)進行了考驗。切記，這個三重支撐位是大盤跌至12000點的最後一道防線。我們說過，如果道指跌破12000點，長達4年的牛市就會終結。

總結：由於今天距8月份期權合約到期日還有2天，因此預計大盤波動還將更為劇烈。此外，受挫最嚴重的指數仍將持續跌勢。

The path with maximum frustration…

Editor's Note: this is the free edition of the Market Outlook. To receive the daily edition everyday before market open, please subscribe. It's now available at a monthly rate.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Thursday August 16, 2007.

As we've predicted in our Tuesday evening "Cubes Speculator Bulletin" - 「breadth deteriorated further…Chances are the market will be heading for a weak opening」- equity market opened on negative tone Wednesday and danced its way lower  into the closing bell as every attempt to buy the dip was met with an even more aggressive wave of selling.  For the day, the Dow gave up 1.29% to 12861.  The S&P 500 down 1.39% to 1406.  Although our QQQUV (QQQQ September 48 Put Option) holding still carry an amazing unrealized profit of 150% in just 4 days.

Contributed to the overall negative sentiment was fresh round of credit crunch worry.   As we've said a couple days ago, "selling is far from over" – see August 14 Market Outlook.

The Bank Index (BKX) is testing support at the 101 level today.  At this stage, it's impossible to know whether the test holds or not.  Although, as mentioned, this level is very important as a successful test will spark a double bottom chat in the financial stocks.  And a failure test, meanwhile, will open the door for another 10% drop in the banks.

Let's take a look at the major index charts:

The Standard & Poors 500 Index (daily) chart above addresses a short-term frame.  The index followed through to the downside today and hence, confirmed the test of support at March's low, around 1375-1360.  Resistant is about 1460-1490.

The Dow Jones Industrials Average (daily) chart above addresses a short-term frame.   The index followed though to the downside and tested the triple support (see chart) at the 12800 level today upon the bearish Head-Shoulder pattern completion.  Bear in mind that the triple support at the 12800 level is the last stop before the 12K.  As mentioned, the four year old bull market will come to an end if the Dow drops below the 12K.

Bottom line: expect volatility to increase drastically as the August option expiration is only 2 days away.  Further, the path with maximum frustration continues to be to the downside.  Now go figure!