技術前瞻：反彈最快今天出現

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這是Capital Essence對2007年8月15日 (週三) 的市場技術分析。

如前所料，週二金融股形勢進一步惡化。事實上，昨日大盤表現再一次確認了我們"拋壓結束還遙遙無期"的觀點。

承接近期的跌勢，昨天金融股指數(BKX) 再跌2.14%。我們說過，要對101點的位置加以密切關注，因為一旦持續跌破該點，該指數對於06年低點(約為92點)的考驗將從此開始。06年低點據此只有10點左右。

來看主要股指：

上面是標普500指數的短期日線圖。昨天該指數略微跌破了上週低點(約1427點)的關鍵阻力位。我們說過："如果持續跌破該點，大盤考驗3月低點(約1360點)的可能性將會增大"。今天該指數如果持續走低將確認這一點。目前，阻力位約為1490點。

上面是道指的短期日線圖。具有看跌意味的頭肩型態已經在昨天的跌勢中形成，而這也增大了該指數至少考驗春季看漲突破點(約為12800點)的可能 性。該指數昨天的持續下跌將確認這一點。請記住，如果12800點的支撐位防守失敗，大盤考驗3月低點(約為12000點)的關鍵支撐位將由此開始。再強 調一次，12000點是非常重要的點位，因為技術面而言，該點一旦被跌破，持續四年的牛市將會終結。

總結：雖然一輪攻擊性的拋售使大多數主要股指紛紛跌破上週低點的關鍵支撐位，但銀行股指數(BKX)還是設法守在了上週低點之上。事實上，該指數這一表現至少現在而言著實令人鼓舞。因此推斷，股市理應出現一次突然的回彈，而這最快可能於今天發生。

Surprise Rebound?

Editor's Note: this is the free edition of the Market Outlook. To receive the daily edition everyday before market open, please subscribe. It's now available at a monthly rate.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Wednesday August 15, 2007.

As predicted, the financial stocks deteriorating further Tuesday.  As a matter of fact, the action had reconfirmed our "selling is far from over" notion – see August 14 Market Outlook.

(Click on image to enlarge)

The Bank Index (BKX) added on to recent lost, down another 2.14% today.   As mentioned, keep the 101 level on your trading radar, for a sustain breakdown below this level will open the door for test of the 06's low, around 92 – that's about 10% from where we sit.

Let's take a look at the major index charts:

(Click on image to enlarge)

The Standard & Poors 500 Index (daily) chart above addresses a short-term frame.  The index broke marginally below key support at the last week's low, around the 1427 level.  As we've mentioned in the previous Market Outlook, "a sustain decline to below this level will increase the probability for a test of March's low around 1360".   A downside follow-through tomorrow will confirm this.  Resistant is about 1490.

(Click on image to enlarge)

The Dow Jones Industrials Average (daily) chart above addresses a short-term frame.   Today decline had completed the bearish Head-Shoulder pattern and hence, increases the probability for a test of, at least, the spring's bullish breakout about 12800.  A downside follow-through tomorrow will confirm this.   Bear in mind that a failure to secure support at the 12800 level will open the door for a test of key support at March's low, around 12K.  Again, the 12K is a very important area because, technically speaking, a breakdown below it will conclude this four year old bull market.

Bottom line: despite the aggressive wave of selling that pushed the majority of major indices below key support at last week's low, the Bank Index (BKX) managed to close well above this level.  As a matter of fact, the action is encouraging, at least for now.  With that said, the market is due for a surprise rebound, which could take place as soon as tomorrow.

Until next time, good luck.