技術前瞻：當心空頭在標普1490點現身

Editor's Note: this is the free edition of the Market Outlook. To receive the daily edition everyday before market open, please subscribe. It's now available at a monthly rate.

這是Capital Essence對2007年8月7日 (週二) 的市場技術分析。

我們在昨天的前瞻分析中說過："股市出現嚴重的超賣現象。因此，我們預計股價在繼續走低之前，會橫盤整理一段時間，甚至會出現一次小幅反彈。" 果然，週一股市出現回彈，標普500指數的10個板塊均明顯高收。

此次具有看漲意義反彈應歸功於金融股的牛勢回轉。

從上圖可以看出，銀行股指數(BKX)週一出現了近5年來最漂亮的反轉，暴漲了5%以上，從而也確認了我們"超賣回彈"的觀點。當前，阻力位約在109-112點，支撐位約為101點。

值得注意的是週一原油價格大跌4.5%，至每桶72.06美元，收於當天交易日低點附近。技術面而言，油價的長期走勢仍然看漲，此次下滑可以視為另一次買進機會。目前油價的短期支撐位約為68美元，阻力位約為78.70美元。

來看主要股指：

上面是標普500指數的短期日線圖。不出所料，該指數週一出現了一次具有緩解超賣壓力意義的漂亮反彈。顯然，現在每個人腦子裡都會提出一個問題： "此次反彈的幅度會有多大？"對此，我們所能說的是：密切關注1490點，以防空頭現身。目前短期支撐位約為1427點，短期阻力位約為1490點。

上面是道指的短期日線圖。和標普500指數類似，該指數週一同樣出現一次亮麗的反彈，之後再次下探由上週三低點形成的支撐位(約為13150 點)。技術面而言，除非該指數成功突破50日均線阻力位，後市仍然默認空頭佔據上風。目前短期支撐位約為13150點，短期阻力位約為13560點。

總結：除非所有人都將此次反彈視為極端的看漲信號，該反彈可能會在標普500指數1490點位置附近失去上漲動力。

Watch out for the sneaky bears at S&P 1490

Editor’s Note: this is the free edition of the Market Outlook. To receive the daily edition everyday before market open, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Tuesday August 07, 2007.

As we’ve predicted right here in the previous Market Outlook “the market is pretty much oversold and we, therefore, think prices could move sideways for sometimes or even experience a little bounce” â€" see “Market is oversold but don’t count on it” August 6, 2007; equity market rebound Monday with all 10 S&P sectors finished noticeably higher.

Contributed to the positive tone was a bullish turn around in the financial stocks.

As you can see, the Bank Index (BKX) turned in its best performance in nearly five years, up more than 5% Monday and hence confirmed our “oversold bounce” notion.  Resistant is about 109-112.  Support is about 101.

It worth notice that crude oil prices turned for the worse Monday, plunged 4.5% to $72.06/bbl and closed near session low.  Technically speaking, the long-term trend remains positive and this decline should be taken as another buying opportunity.  Short-term support is about 68.  Resistant is about $78.70.

Let’s take a look at the major index charts:

The Standard & Poors 500 Index (daily) chart above addresses a short-term frame.  As expected, the board market index kicked off a nice oversold relieve rally Monday.  Apparently, the question that everyone has in mind is “how far can it go from here?”  At this stage, all we can say is: watch out for the sneaky bear around the 1490 level.  Short-term support is about 1427.  Short-term resistant is about 1490.

The Dow Jones Industrials Average (daily) chart above addresses a short-term frame.  Similar to the S&P 500, the blue-chips index also rebound nicely Monday followed a retest of support at last Wednesday low around the 13150 level.  Technically speaking, the bears still have the benefit of the doubts unless the index manages to take out resistant at the 50-day moving average.  Short-term support is about 13150.  Short-term resistant is about 13560.

Bottom line: unless there is a headline that everyone recognizes as extreme bullish, the rally is likely to lose steam around the S&P 1490 level.

Until next time, good luck.