The bank index (BKX) is testing Wednesday's low @103.36. Expect the market to tank should the BKX closed below this level. With that said, the S&P 500 will have to retest the 1410 level in the upcoming days should this "dip" fails to attract bargain hunters at current level.
Friday, August 03, 2007
技術前瞻：密切關注標普1490點
這是Capital Essence對2007年8月3日 (週五) 的市場技術分析。
我們在昨天的前瞻分析說過："週三的牛勢反轉很可能是一次關鍵性反彈的開始，而且此次反彈可能持續數天"。果然，週四股市繼續走高。道指上漲 100.96點，收於13463.33點，漲幅為0.76%。標普500指數收穫6.39點，收於1472.20點，漲幅為0.44%。
連續兩天，股市都是憑借後期暴漲將主要股指送上高點，而之前大盤相對比較平靜。總的來說，昨天對於華爾街和我們的Swing-Trader Bulletin專欄都是個好日子。 Advent Software Inc (ADVS) 大漲2%，達到39.63美元，再次創下52週新高。自我們在3天前的欄目中對該股做過介紹以來，該股已經累計上漲了近10%。同時，Accuray Inc (ARAY)也有2.15%的漲幅，上漲了41美分，達到19.52美元。新的空頭倉位Cash America Int' (CSH) 也按預期方向運行良好，下跌了30美分，跌至35.15美元，跌幅為0.85%。
再來看下跌股。Vcg Holding Corp. (PTT) 昨天下跌4%，成交量有所放大。但值得高興的是，我們已於昨天從該股中抽出了大量資金。但是，只要該股還沒有跌至7月低點，此次回調也可以被激進的投資者看作一個不錯的買進機會。
來看主要股指：
(Click on the image to enlarge)
上面是標普500指數的短期日線圖。果然，該指數昨天繼續走高。還是我們說過的那樣，密切關注1490點位置，因為一旦該點被突破，大盤指數重新考驗6月高點的可能性將會增大。當前支撐位約為1450/40點，阻力位約為1490點。
(Click on the image to enlarge)
上面是道指的短期日線圖。現在看來該指數按預期的方向運行良好 —— 該股指正逼近上方50日均線的阻力位(約為13550點)。請記住，如果該指數沒能突破這一阻力位，大盤考驗2月高點(約為12800)的可能性將會增 大。當前支撐位約為13132點，阻力位約為13550點。
總結：我們預計標普500指數不久將第一次考驗1490點的阻力位，但能否成功破位還不得而知。儘管如此，請記住一旦突破失敗，空頭將佔上風。
Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It's now available at a monthly rate.
All eyes on the S&P 1490
Good Morning. This is Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Friday August 03, 2007.
As we've predicted right here in the previous Market Outlook "more likely than not, Wednesday's bullish reversal is the beginning of a snap back rally that will last for a couple of days" – see "Snapback Rally" August 2, 2007 – equity added on to previous gains Thursday with the Dow rose 100.96 points or 0.76% to finished at 13463.33. The S&P 500 Index gained 6.39 points or 0.44% to 1472.20.
For a second day in a row, stocks stayed relatively calmed until the late surge took the major indices higher. Overall, it was a good day on the Street and so the Swing-Trader Bulletin. Advent Software Inc (ADVS) printed another new 52-week high today, gained about 2% to $39.63. The stock gained almost 10% since profiled 3 days ago. Accuray Inc (ARAY) gained 41 cents or 2.15% to $19.52. The new short position, Cash America Int' (CSH) also moved well on the expected direction, down 30 cents or 0.85% to $35.15.
On the downside, Vcg Holding Corp. (PTT) lost almost 4% on high volume. Glad that we've took a most of the money off the table yesterday. However, unless the stock takes out the July's low, this pullback could be taken as a good buying opportunity for aggressive traders.
Let's take a look at the major indices charts:
(Click on the image to enlarge)
The Standard & Poors 500 Index (daily) chart above addresses a short-term frame. As predicted, the board market index moved higher Thursday. As mentioned, keep the 1490 level on your trading radar for a sustain breakout above it, will increase the probability for a retest of the June's high. Support is about 1450/40. Resistant is about 1490.
(Click on the image to enlarge)
The Dow Jones Industrials Average (daily) chart above addresses a short-term frame. The blue-chips index seemed to move well on the expected direction – it's getting very close to the overhead resistant at the 50-day moving average, about 13550. Bear in mind that a failure to take out this level will increase the probability for a test of the February's high about 12,800. Support is about 13132. Resistant is about 13550.
Bottom line: we're expecting the S&P 500 to conduct a first test of resistant at the 1490 level sooner rather than later. At this stage, it's impossible to know whether the index can successfully take out this level or not. Although, bear in mind that a failure to do so will put the bears into the driver side of the market.
Until next time, good luck.
Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It's now available at a monthly rate.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
