Wednesday, August 01, 2007
技術前瞻：期待決定性的反彈
這是Capital Essence對2007年8月1日(週三)的市場技術分析。
在昨天的前瞻分析中我們說過：“週一的反彈很可能是期待已久的超跌反彈的開始。然而，如果此次反彈沒能突破關鍵阻力位，股市將變得非常難看，因此還是先盡情享受股市重整旗鼓的這段日子吧。”週二，股市高開，標普500指數在半個交易日內漲幅已達10點之多。然而，就在大盤反彈至關鍵阻力位 1490點下方後，股市突然反轉，繼而暴跌。上午的一切收益頃刻間灰飛煙滅。
整體而言，昨天對華爾街，以及我們的“Swing Trader Bulletin”欄目來說都是具有挑戰性的一天，儘管最終結果還不算太糟。事實上，Vcg Holding Corp. (PTT) 昨天漲幅超過15%，收於 7美元， 而Accuray Inc (ARAY) 也上漲了0.64%，收於18.91美元。我們在週一晚間的“Swing Trader Bulletin”中對這兩隻股票都作了潛在買進的推薦。與此同時，Advent Software Inc (ADVS) 昨天也漲到了38..3美元，漲幅近2%。
來看主要股指:
上面是標普500指數的短期日線圖。該指數在反彈至1490點時遭遇賣盤，結果大盤不出意外地大幅低收。這當然是看跌的信號。然而，在空頭成功突破昨天低點附近的兩個重要支撐位(分別為200日均線和今年春季的看漲性突破位置)之前，近期的下跌風險還是有限的。當前支撐位約為1450點，阻力位約為1490點。
上面是那指的短期日線圖。和標普500指數類似，這個以科技股為主的指數也正在逼近今年春季的看漲突破位置(約為2500點)。請對此加以密切關注。如果大盤跌破這一位置，那將有很強的看跌意味。當前支撐位約為2500點，阻力位約為2600點。
提到科技股，我們在週一晚間的“Cubes Speculator Bulletin”文章中對昨天的下跌曾做過警告：“預計反彈將進入49美元範圍，切記，如果這一水平支撐失守，跌勢仍將繼續”。在昨天上午的反彈中，那斯達克100指數ETF (QQQQ) 曾一度漲至48.99美元。而大約在中午時分，QQQQ 開始反轉，而後一路下滑直至收盤。最終，QQQQ下跌1點，跌至47.53美元，跌幅達2%。當日，任何看跌期權都會有三位數的盈利。
總結：週二最後60分鐘的大跌表明股市可能已經進入短期的賣家投降期，而這也增大了大盤在本週中期向上反轉的可能性。但是，請記住，如果股市拒絕從這一消極狀況中反彈，上升的大趨勢將遭到破壞。此後股市恐怕將進入熊市階段。
Until next time, good luck.
Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.
Mid-week Reversal?
Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Wednesday August 01, 2007.
We’ve noted right here in the previous Market Outlook that “Monday rebound is the beginning of the long awaited oversold bounce. And you might want to enjoy it while it last for the market could turn very ugly should the rally loose steam right below key resistant” – see “Enjoy the rally while it lasts” July 31, 2007; equity market opened sharply higher Tuesday with the S&P gained as much as 10 points in the morning session. Those ill-fated gains were, however, got wipe out in a blink of an eye shortly after the rally ran out breadth right below the key resistant at the 1490 level. The board market index closed 20 points lower or about 1.3% to 1453.
Overall, it was a challenging day on the Street, as well as our “Swing Trader Bulletin”. Although, the end results weren’t that bad. In fact, Vcg Holding Corp. (PTT) profiled on Monday evening as a potential buy rose more than 15% to $7. Accuray Inc (ARAY) also profiled on Monday evening as a potential buy rose 0.64% % to $18.91. Advent Software Inc (ADVS) added on to previous gains, up almost 2% on the day to $38.03.
Let’s take a look at the major indices:
The Standard & Poors 500 Index (daily) chart above addresses a short-term frame. As expected, the index closed significantly lower after the rally into the 1490 level was greeted by sellers. This is, of course, bearish. However, until or unless the bears manage to take out the double support (the 200-day moving average and early spring bullish breakout) around today’s low, the near-term downside risk is limited. Support is about 1450. Resistant is about 1490.
The NASDAQ Composite Index (daily) chart above addresses a short-term frame. Similar to the S&P, the tech rich index is also eyeing support at the early spring bullish breakout, about 2500. Keep an eye on it for a breakdown to below this level will have a very bearish implication on the board market. Support is about 2500. Resistant is about 2600.
In speaking of tech, the “Cubes Speculator Bulletin” readers had been warned about today’s decline in the Monday evening update – “expect the rally to carry into the $49 area. Bear in mind that a failure to take out this level will resume the decline” – after the strong bounce that brought the NASDAQ-100 Index ETF (QQQQ) to as high as $48.99, the ETF had made a quick reversal around noon and slide its way lower into the closing bell. The QQQQ lost about 1 point, or 2%, to $47.53. Any put options traded could have posted triple digits gain today.
Bottom line: the magnitude of Tuesday’s last hour decline suggests that the market might have reached a short-term seller capitulation and hence, increased the probability for a mid-week bullish reversal. However, bear in mind that the primary trend will roll over if the market refuses to bounce from such a negative condition. With that said, we could be entering a bear market from here.
Until next time, good luck.
Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.
