Capital Essence Blog - 錢途集團: Jul 31, 2007

技術前瞻：超跌反彈突破阻力位是關鍵

這是Capital Essence對2007年7月31日(週二)的市場前瞻分析

在昨天的前瞻分析中我們已經指出：「Cubes Speculator的專有交易程序顯示，股市已經出現短期的超賣現象，理應出現一次反彈」。不出所料，週一，股市反彈地很漂亮，標普500指數上漲了14點還多，最終收於1474點，漲幅為1%。

此次上揚應歸功於摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley) (MS) 信用評級的一次意外調升。標準普爾之前將該公司信用等級由 “AA-/A-1+” 升至 “A+/A-1″。

從上圖中可以看出，摩根士丹利評級調升的消息使銀行指數(BKX)大漲1.62%，這是看漲的信號。因此，我們預計大盤不久將考驗111點水平的阻力位。當前支撐位約為105點。再強調一下，金融股一直以來都是股市的「晴雨表」，因此應當予以密切關注。

來看主要股指：

上面是標普500指數的短期日線圖。果然，在考驗了1460點支撐位後，該指數出現了一次漂亮的反彈。技術面而言，這是看漲的信號。預計大盤將考驗1490點左右的阻力位。當前支撐位約為1451點，阻力位約為1490點。

上面是道指的短期日線圖。和標普500指數類似，該指數也在2個月來的橫向趨勢線的支撐位置出現反彈。總的來說，在該指數進入13600點範圍之前，多頭不會遇到任何嚴重的阻力。

總結：週一的反彈很可能是期待已久的超跌反彈的開始。然而，如果此次反彈沒能突破關鍵阻力位，股市將變得非常難看，因此還是先盡情享受股市重整旗鼓的這段日子吧。

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.

Enjoy the Rally while it lasts

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Tuesday July 31, 2007.

We’ve noted right here in the previous Market Outlook that “as far as the “Cubes Speculator” proprietary trading program concerns, market had reached a short-term oversold and is due for a bounce” – see “As goes the bank, so goes the tape” July 30, 2007; equity market bounced nicely Monday with the S&P rose more than 14 points or 1% to finished at 1474.

Contributed to the bullishness was a surprise upgrade on Morgan Stanley’s (MS) credit rating, which was raised to “AA-/A-1+” from “A+/A-1″ at Standard & Poor’s.

As you can see, the Bank Index (BKX) gained 1.62% on the news. This is bullish. And we’re, therefore, expected to see a test of resistant at the 111 level sooner rather than later. Support is about 105. Once again, the financial stocks had been the “tells” for this bull market, hence, they should be on your trading radar.

Let’s take a look at the major index charts:

The Standard & Poors 500 Index (daily) chart above addresses a short-term frame. As expected, the board market index rebound nicely followed a test of support at the 1460 level. Technically speaking, this is bullish. Expect a test of resistant around the 1490 area. Support is about 1454. Resistant is about 1490.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (daily) chart above addresses a short-term frame. Similar to the S&P, the Dow had also bounced off support at the two-month lateral trendline. General speaking, the bulls shouldn’t get into any serious trouble until the index enters the 13600 zone. Support is about 13220. Resistant is about 13600.

Bottom line: more likely than not, Monday rebound is the beginning of the long awaited oversold bounce. And you might want to enjoy it while it last for the market could turn very ugly should the rally loose steam right below key resistant.

Until next time, good luck.