Daily Stock pick for $ July 31, 2007
Monday, July 30, 2007
技術前瞻：密切關注金融板塊
這是Capital Essence 對2007年7月30日的市場前瞻分析。
毋庸贅言，上週對於股市來說無疑是具有挑戰性的一週。主要股指平均跌幅達5%，人們對於金融股崩潰的擔憂有增無減。
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從上圖可以看出，自我們在2007年7與18日的前瞻分析中對該板塊做了看跌討論以後，銀行股指數(BKX)累計跌幅約為9%。技術面而言，跌破上週低點意味著該板塊將進入長期的熊市。而這正是空頭所需要的。
來看主要股指：
以上是標普500指數的中期周線圖。上週的跌勢使該指數又重新回到了1460點左右的移動平均線所在點位及今年春季向上突破時形成的支撐位。我們說過，繼上週拋售之後，整體技術前景轉糟。儘管如此，只要該指數能夠保持在當前水平之上，多頭將佔上風。
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上面是道指的中期周線圖。與標普500指數不同的是，道指仍然在2個月趨勢線的支撐位找到了支撐。這當然是鼓舞人心的。因為一旦大盤穩定下來，就可以引誘撿便宜的買家重新回到股市。支撐位約在132000-12700點，阻力位約為14000點。
和其他股指類似，上週對納指，繼而科技股投資者來說也是個災難。 雖然如此，如果投資者使用了我們的“Cubes Speculator”專有交易程序，不但能夠避免此次災難，還可以盈利。
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從上圖可以看出，7月24日的信號在7月26日這一天觸發並同時被確認。這是非常重要的，因為它極大地提高了此次交易的成功率。而且因此，納指在7 月27日週五的時候，連續第二個交易日暴跌，跌幅超過2%。 因此，如果按照這一系統交易，任何期權投資者上週都可能獲得三位數的收益。
那麼，接下來會如何呢？ 就該體系而言，股市已經出現了短期的超賣現象，理應出現一次反彈。而這可以當作一次拋售的機會。
總結：繼上週拋盤之後，關於“熊市”的說法出現了不少。當前，我們不可能知道熊市是否已經開始， 但密切關注金融板塊及其重要，因為正如之前曾經說過的那樣：“銀行股怎麼走， 股市就怎麼跟”。
Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.
As goes the bank, so goes the tape
Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Monday July 30, 2007.
Needless to say, last week was definitely a challenging week in the stock market with the major indices posted an average lost of 5% for the week amid a growing concern about the financial melt down.
As you can see, the Bank Index (BKX) is about 9% lower since our bearish discussion on the sector a couple weeks ago – see “Watch-out for a correction” July 18, 2007. Technically speaking, a decline to below last week low indicates that the sector could be entering a secular bear market। And this is exactly what the bears need.
Let’s take a look at the major indices charts:
The Standard & Poors 500 Index (weekly) chart above addresses an intermediate-term frame. Last week decline had bought the board market index back to the area of moving average and early spring bullish breakout support around 1460. As mentioned, the overall technical outlook had taken a turn for the worse after last week sell-off; though, the bulls shall prevail as long as the index holds above this level.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (weekly) chart above addresses an intermediate-term frame. Unlike the S&P, the blue-chips index still manages to hold support at the two-month trendline support. This is of course encouraging because it could help to lure bargain hunters back to the market once the index stabilizes. Support is about 13200-12700. Resistant is about 14000.
Similar to its peers, last week was also “disaster” for the NASDAQ and hence, tech investors. Although, they could have not only escaped this disaster but also made some money if they’ve used the simple (in term of user friendly) but very precise (in term of predicting power) “Cubes Speculator” proprietary trading program.
As you can see from the above chart, the July 24 signal was triggered and confirmed on the same day – July 26, 2007. This is very important because it had drastically increased the probability success with the trade. And so, on Friday the July 27, the NASDAQ market plunged for the second straight session, down more than 2%. With that said, any option traders could have posted a triple digits gain to their portfolio last week if they were traded in favor of the system.
So what’s next? As far as this system concern, market had reached a short-term oversold and is due for a bounce, which can be taken as a selling opportunity।
Bottom line: there were a number of “bear market” chatters after last week’s sell-off. At this stage, it’s impossible to know whether the bear market has begun, but we think it’s important to pay attention to the financial sector because, as mentioned, “as goes the bank, so goes the tape”.
Until next time, good luck.
Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.
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