“Trading the Market” Bulletin for $ July 20, 2007.
Thursday, July 19, 2007
技術前瞻：默認看漲 回調是機會
這是Capital Essence對2007年7月19日(週四)的市場前瞻分析。
我們在昨天的前瞻分析中說過，“上週四開始的反彈理當進行整理，而整理最早可能於今天開始。”果不其然，昨天(道指週二達到14000點里程碑)股 市猛烈反轉，然而，尾盤時湧現的大量買單將主要股指拉起很多。道指一度下跌148點，但交易最後30分鐘努力收復了近100點。事實上，週三的盤面狀況與 我們“後市默認看漲”的觀點相當一致，也就是說，“只要標普500指數保持在1540點之上，我們的默認立場就是看漲，因此，我們將這次回調視為買進機 會。”
週三金融股重挫，高盛集團(Goldman Sachs)(GS)——對華爾街來說惟一重要的股票——下跌了2%以上，之前我們剛剛在昨天的前瞻分析中對這個板塊作出了偏空的評論。像以往一樣，後續 表現才是關鍵。因此，密切關注該股以及整個金融板塊。記住：“銀行股怎麼走，市場就怎麼跟。”
來看主要股指：
上面是標普500指數的短期日線圖。不出所料，該指數昨天成功地考驗了1540點支撐位。這當然是看漲信號。眼下，支撐位約為1540點，阻力位約為1600點。
上面是道指的短期日線圖。我們在昨天的文章中說過：“始於上週四的反彈看起來有點用力過度。”果然，昨天道指翻轉下跌。從技術面來說，由於昨天的下跌出現在長期牛市的趨勢下，因此絲毫不值得擔憂。支撐位約為13690點。
總結：目前，我們的直覺是，“在沒有相反證據情況下，後市看漲。然而，正如上面所說的，後續行動才是關鍵。因此密切關注週三的低點，因為跌破這個位置意味著昨天的下跌可能是更長久盤整的開始。相反，如果突破本週高點將恢復近期的上揚行情。簡而言之，密切關注市場的演變。”
Upside should have the benefit of the doubt
Editor’s Note: The following article was written by Michelle Mai of Capital Essence. It has been reproduced with permission for the benefit of the S.M.R community.
Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Thursday July 19, 2007.
As predicted in our previous Market Outlook, “the rally that starts last Thursday is due for a correction, which could start as soon as tomorrow” – see “Watch out for a correction” July 18, 2007; equity market had made a sharp reversal Wednesday – the day after the Dow hit the 14K milestone. A renewed wave of buying interest late in the session, however, gave the major averages a significant boost. The Dow was down as much as 148 points but managed to reclaim almost 100 points within the final 30 minutes of trading. As a matter of fact, Wednesday trading action was pretty consistent with our “market is bullish by default” notion” – “the market is bullish by default as long as the S&P holds above the 1540 level. And we’re, therefore, viewed this pull back as a buying opportunity”.
Financial stocks took a long dive Wednesday with Goldman Sachs (GS) – the only stock that matters to the Street, of course – down more than 2% right after our bearish discussion on the sector – see “Watch out for a correction” July 18, 2007. As usual, follow through is the key. So keep an eye on the stock and the sector as well. Remember this “as goes the bank, so goes the tape.”
Let’s take a look at the major index charts:
The Standard & Poors 500 Index (daily) chart above addresses a short-term frame. As expected, the board market index had successfully tested the 1540 level today. This is bullish, of course. Support is around 1540. Resistant is about 1600.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (daily) chart above addresses a short-term frame. We’ve opined in the previous Market Outlook that “the rally that started last Thursday looked overextended” – see “Watch out for a correction” July 18, 2007; the blue chips index stumble today. Technically speaking, since today decline is happened within a context of a long-term bull trend, there is nothing, yes absolutely nothing, to worry about. Support is about 13690.
Bottom line: at this stage, our gut feeling said that “the upside should be given the benefit of the doubt.” However, as noted above, follow-though is the key. So keep an eye on Wednesday’s low for a breakdown to below this level suggests that today decline could be the beginning of the long anticipated correction. On the other hand, a breakout to above the weekly’s high will resume the recent upleg. In short, keep a close eye on the tape.
Until next time, good luck.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
