Capital Essence Blog - 錢途集團: 10/01/2007

Wednesday, October 31, 2007

技術前瞻：聯儲是今天的主角

Editor's note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence's CEM News on October 30, 2007. It's being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2007年10月31日 (週三) 的市場技術分析。

週二股市收盤漲跌不一。納斯達克100指數上漲0.19%，報收2207.67點——創數年來新高，而道指和標普500指數則小幅走低，原因是股市在聯儲公開市場會議公告公佈之前出現了些許獲利回吐現象。以科技股為主的納指的交易狀況和我們之前在 "Cubes Speculator Bulletin" 指出的非常一致："在週三下午聯儲公開市場會議公告發佈之前，股市都會處於波動狀態……走低之前，股市可能還會略微上揚"——果然，納斯達克100 ETF (QQQQ) 一掃早盤弱勢，在猛烈買盤的烘托下向上突破並創下新高。該ETF盤中一度漲至54.56美元，但之後又幾乎將大部分收益損失殆盡，最終僅小幅高收。近期建倉的看漲期權在不到3天的時間裡可獲得46%左右的收益。

從技術面上看，只要NDX能守在上升趨勢線上方，投資者就無須擔憂。

上面是標普500指數的短期日線圖。不像納指那樣幸運，標普500指數在考驗長達兩個月的上升趨勢線後遭遇猛烈拋壓，一路走低。該指數今天若繼續下滑將預示短期的趨勢反轉即將出現，因此預計200日均線將受到考驗。目前阻力位約為1545點。

上面是道指的短期日線圖。和標普500指數相似，在始自10月22日低點的逆勢反彈遭遇阻力之後，道指也同樣收於低點。如前所述，如果該指數今日繼續下跌，短期的趨勢反轉將會出現，因此預計200日均線將受到考驗。目前阻力位約為14000點。

總結：今天的行情引人注目，或許會有跌宕起伏的表現。股市將全神關注聯儲於美東時間下午2:15發佈的利率政策。大多數股市參與者預計聯儲會降息25個基點。更大的降息幅度將受到市場歡迎，反之則不利於股市。和往常一樣，股市對聯儲決定的反應遠比這個消息本身更為重要。因此，同時密切關注大盤是明智之舉。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。

It’s all about the FED

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Wednesday October 31, 2007.

Stocks finished mix Tuesday with NASDAQ 100 gained +0.19% to 2207.67 – a new multi-year high; while both of the Dow and S&P moved slightly lower amid some sort of profit taking activities ahead of Wednesday's FOMC policy announcement. As a matter of fact, the tech rich index's trading action was very consistent with what we've noted in the previous "Cubes Speculator Bulletin": "market will be in a drift mode until the FOMC announcement on Wednesday afternoon… it could go a bit higher before moving lower" – the NASDAQ 100 ETF (QQQQ) broke to new high after the morning weakness was met with an aggressive wave of buying. The stock reached as high as $54.56 (+$0.40) before gave up a bulk part of the gain to close slightly above the unchanged mark. The recent call option set up gained about +46% in less than 3 days.

Technically speaking, investors should have nothing to worry as long as the NDX holds above the rising trendline.

The S&P 500 Index (daily) chart above addresses a short-term time frame. Not as lucky as its younger sister, the S&P 500 Index moved lower Wednesday after the test of resistant at the two-month rising trendline was greeted by aggressive sellers. A downside follow-through tomorrow indicates short-term trend reversal and a test of the 200-day moving average is, therefore, expected. Resistant is about 1545.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (daily) chart above addresses a short-term time frame. Similar to the S&P, the blue-chips index also closed lower for the day after the counter trend rally from October 22 low ran into resistant. As noted above, a downside follow-through tomorrow indicates short-term trend reversal and a test of the 200-day moving average is, therefore, expected. Resistant is about 14K.

Bottom line: tomorrow will be an interesting, and possibly volatile trading session. Market will turn its full attention to the FOMC decision at 2:15 p.m. EST. A majority of market participants expect a 25 basis points cut. Anything above this is good for stocks and vice versa. Like usual, the reaction to the news is more important than the news itself. So, it'd be wise to keep an eye on the tape as well.

Until next time, good luck!

(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It's now available at a monthly rate.

Tuesday, October 30, 2007

技術前瞻：橫盤整理略偏負面

Editor's note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence's CEM News on October 29, 2007. It's being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2007年10月30日 (週二) 的市場技術分析。

如前所料，美股週一小幅攀升，投資者對明天的聯儲市場公開會議公告拭目以待。當日，道指漲幅0.5%，報收13870.26點，標普500指數上漲 0.4%，報收1540.98點。科技股推動納指上漲0.5%，收於2817.44點——這不僅打破了2007年收盤的新紀錄，還創下納指近7年來的最高收盤價位。走弱的美元是整體樂觀情緒的主因。我們在前瞻分析中多次指出：疲軟的美元對股市來說是看漲的信號，因為它不僅能推動跨國公司改善盈利狀況，還可以讓美國出口產品的海外售價變得更為低廉。

來看主要股指：

上面是標普500指數的短期日線圖。該指數繼續運行在由上升趨勢線構成的阻力位下方。這不是很好，在指數突破之前，與大市爭執並沒有什麼好處。我們說過，該指數若不能突破該阻力位，上週低點——約1490點——將再次受到考驗。而站上這一阻力位，10月高點——約1570點——被考驗的可能性將增大。

上面是道指的短期日線圖。和標普500指數相比，道指的表現似乎更為強勢一些。從技術面上看，該指數正處於重新衝上10月高點的有利位置。目前支撐位為上週低點——約13400點。

總結：在週三的聯儲公開市場會議結果宣佈之前，預計股市都會橫向整理，盤面略微偏於負面。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

Slightly Bias for Tuesday Session

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Tuesday October 30, 2007.

As expected, stock drifted slightly higher Monday as investors await Wednesday's FOMC policy announcement. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed around 0.5% to 13870.26, while the S&P 500 index added 0.4% to 1540.98. The tech-fueled NASDAQ Composite gained 0.5% to end at 2817.44 – a new 2007 record and also its highest close in nearly seven years. Contributed to the overall optimism was a lower dollar. We've noted here a couple of time that a lower greenback (USD) is bullish for the stocks since it boosts earnings of multinational companies and makes U.S. stuffs (exports) cheaper oversea.

Let's take a look at major indices:

The S&P 500 Index (daily) chart above addresses a short-term time frame. The board market index continues to trade beneath the trendline resistant. This is not very good though until prices start to break down; it doesn't pay to argue with the market. As mentioned, a failure to take out this resistant suggests a retest of last week's low about 1490. And an advance above it, meanwhile, will increase the chance for a test of October's high about 1570.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (daily) chart above addresses a short-term time frame. The blue-chips index seems to be stronger than its larger peer, the S&P. Technically speaking, the index is in a good position to run back to October's high. Support is at last week's low about 13400.

Bottom line: expect the market to move sideway with a slight positive bias into Wednesday's FOMC policy announcement.

Until next time, good luck!

(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Monday, October 29, 2007

技術前瞻：聯儲會議成本週焦點

Editor's note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence's CEM News on October 28, 2007. It's being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2007年10月29日 (週一) 的市場技術分析。

美股在上週臨近結束時借多方動能發力，道指以13807點報收，一週累計上漲了2.1%；標準普爾500指數上漲35點，報1535點，累計漲幅2.3%。

原油上週五低收，跌至每桶87.56美元，跌幅3.21%。上週四，原油價格曾創下90.55美元的高價。自2007年8月27日我們在此對原油做過介紹以來，原油方面的累計投資回報率已達22%。

從技術面上看，原油似乎會進行一次短期的盤整。原油價格跌破84.90美元將確認這一點。目前支撐位約為81美元。

來看主要股指：

上面是標普500指數的短期日線圖。該指數已做好了考驗長達兩個月的上升趨勢線這一"先前支撐位、當前阻力位"的準備。此刻，考驗成功與否還不得而知。但是標普500指數若能果斷上破這一位置，將為大盤重新考驗10月高點打下基礎。目前支撐位為上週低點——約1490點。

上面是道指的短期日線圖。該指數上週五果斷突破了50日移動平均線。這是看漲的信號。道指後續表現若能繼續保持上揚將表明10月高點會再次受到考驗。目前支撐位為上週低點——約13400點。

總結：在本週召開的聯儲公開市場會議到來之前，股市已經做好了考驗10月高點的準備。聯邦基金期貨的價格顯示聯儲在10月31日降息25個基點的概率為92%。也有人預測伯南克和聯儲成員會出其不意地大幅削減利率50個基點(就像9月份聯儲的做法一樣)。同時，還有一種預測認為，伯南克大叔可能會保持利率不變以表達自己對股市的嚴愛，因為近期油價的飆升引發了通脹憂慮。隨著各種猜測的蔓延，股市波動性高漲。所有這些瘋狂的價格表現都為大盤一次急劇的盤整創造了條件。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

All eyes on the FED

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Monday October 29, 2007.

Stock moved higher last week amid the late-week momentum that saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 285 points or 2.1%, to 13,807 and the Standard & Poor's 500 gained 35 points or 2.3% to 1535.

Crude oil closed lower Friday down -3.21% to $87.56 per barrel after printing a record high of $90.55 on Thursday. Just so that you know, invest in crude oil has returned about +22% since profiled here on August 27, 2007.

Technically speaking, crude seems to be vulnerable for a short-term correction. A decline to below $84.90 will confirm this. Support is about $81.

Let's take a look at major indices:

The S&P 500 Index (daily) chart above addresses a short-term time frame. The index is well position for a test of "previous-support-now-resistant" at the area of two-month rising trendline. At this moment, it's unknown whether the index can take out this level or not. A clear breakout above this level, however, will set the stage for a retest of October's high. Support is at last week's low about 1490.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (daily) chart above addresses a short-term time frame. The blue-chips index printed a clear breakout above the 50-day moving average. This is bullish. An upside followed through indicates a retest of October's high. Support is at last week's low about 13400.

In summary, market is well positioned for a test of October's high ahead of the FOMC this week. Fed fund futures now price in a 92% chance of a 25 basis point cut on October 31 to 4.50%. There is a speculation that Bernanke & Co. could surprise the markets by slashing the benchmark rate by 50 basis point (just like what they did in September). And there's also another speculation that Uncle Ben might show the market tough love by leaving policy unchanged as the recent burst higher in crude caused inflation concerns. Evident in last week's unusual price action, volatility is soaring as speculation runs wild. All of these wild price actions had created the potential for steep corrections market wide.

Until next time, good luck!

(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Friday, October 26, 2007

技術前瞻：多空激戰仍將繼續

Editor's note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence's CEM News on October 25, 2007. It's being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2007年10月26日 (週五) 的市場技術分析。

我們在週三晚間的"Cubes Speculator Bulletin" 中指出：週四股市若能強勢開盤，將極有可能出現"逢高出貨"的局面。果然，隨著摩托羅拉(MOT)、Aetna (AET)、Express Scripts (ESRX) 以及Estee Lauder (EL)等公司令人振奮的財報出爐，美股週四高開。但正如之前所料，最初的走高勢頭遇到了猛烈的拋賣壓力。道指、納指和標普500指數分別下挫127點、 40點和15點，並在美東時間下午2點左右跌入各自的盤中低點。幸運的是，臨近尾盤出現的多方勢力又連續第二次將大盤成功托至前日收盤點位。總的來說，週四又是華爾街跌宕起伏的一天。

來看主要股指：

上面是標普500指數的短期日線圖。該指數繼續在長達兩個月的上升趨勢線和200日均線支撐位之間來回波動。在我們看來，該指數已經運行至一個交易區間。

上面是道指的短期日線圖。該指數正對13740點水平的阻力位進行一次關鍵性的考驗。從圖中可以看出，在過去的5個月的時間裡，道指每穿越一次該阻力位都會出現一個重要的高點或低點，這種情況已出現了6次。因此，如果該指數不能突破這一阻力位，未來幾天200日均線受到考驗的可能性將極高。該指數若跌破13400點，這一點將得到確認。但道指若能持續突破上述阻力位，10月高點被重新考驗的可能性將增大。

總結：儘管股市很可能會進一步下跌，但只要大盤能守在200日均線的強勢支撐位的上方，空頭就不會有任何機會。同樣，多頭只有將股價成功推至關鍵阻力位的上方才能奪回股市的主動權。預計在11月份來臨之前，多空雙方的這種激戰都無法結束。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

And the battle goes on

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Friday October 26, 2007.

We've opined in the Wednesday evening "Cubes Speculator Bulletin" that: Thursday' strong opening might set a perfect stage for the "Whac-A-Mole" [read: sell-the-strength] strategy. Stocks opened on a positive tone Thursday amid a fresh batch of encouraging earnings news from the likes of Motorola (MOT), Aetna (AET), Express Scripts (ESRX) and Estee Lauder (EL). And as expected, the initial move higher was met with an aggressive wave of selling that saw the Dow, NASDAQ and S&P stumble -127, -40, and -15 points respectively, at their lows for the day, around 2:00 ET. And fortunately, for a second day in a row, the market managed to get back to around the zero line by the closing bell amid the late-day buying interest. Overall, it was just another wild day on the Street.

Let's take a look at major indices:

The S&P 500 Index (daily) chart above addresses a short-term time frame. The index continues to bounce back and forth between resistant the two-month rising trendline and support at the 200-day moving average. It seems to us that the index had moved into a trading range.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (daily) chart above addresses a short-term time frame. The index is conducting an important test of resistant at the 13740-ish level. As you can see, there were six incidents, in the past 5 months, in which important high/low were printed every time the index crossed this level. With that said, there is a high probability for a test of the 200-day moving average in the upcoming days if the index fails to take out this level. A decline to below 13400 will confirm this. And a sustain breakout above this level this level, meanwhile, will increase the chance for a retest of October's high.

In summary, although seemingly vulnerable for further declines, the bears will not have any cases as long as the market holds above the strong support at the 200-day moving average. On the same token, the bulls will only get back the driver side of the market if they manage to push prices above key resistant. And we do not expect this bull-bear battle to resolve until the calendar turns to November.

Until next time, good luck!

(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Thursday, October 25, 2007

Whac-A-Mole: Q’s +36%, BOW +20%

Editor's Note: below are just some trading ideas flow from our latest Headlines.

"Cubes Speculator Bulletin":

October 24, 2007 @ 6:00 PM:

We have a feeling that the market is setting up for a strong "opening" tomorrow…one of those "whac-a-mole" days [read: sell into strength]…

As predicted, the strong opening was met with an aggressive wave of selling that sent the Q's to as low as $52.75. Any Put Option traded should have earned at least +30% intraday.

By the way, we'd like to congrats Trader John (a "Cubes Speculator Bulletin" subscriber) for his beautiful Sell. This is his morning (Thu, October 25, 2007 10:24 am) confession: "[QQQKA] in $1.39 yesterday, out 2 mins ago at $1.89. Thanks". That was a nice +36% profit in just 1 day. Good trade, buddy!

And also a special thanks to Michelle Mai for her good work as the "Cubes Speculator Bulletin" Editor. Good job – we love you!

"Swing Trader Bulletin":

October 18, 2007:

Long: BOW.
Bowater Inc (BOW) traded like it wants to go higher from here. We'll be a buyer around $xx. Stop: around $xxxx. Target: $xx; $xx. Risk Rating: 4.

As you can see, despite the overall weakness, Bowater Inc (BOW) jumped almost +4% today on the heel of yesterday +5% gain. Our long position is holding an amazing gain of +20% in less than a week.

At Capital Essence, we target sudden profits, typically stocks that we can swing in and out for a quick 10-50% and 100-500% for options.

Want more investing ideas? Check out Capital Essence's Newsletter Services - "best-of-web" technical analysis.

技術前瞻：週四盤勢看漲

Editor's note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence's CEM News on October 24, 2007. It's being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2007年10月25日(週四)的市場技術分析。

週三，投資者對亞馬遜財報的消極反應導致科技股遭遇沉重拋壓，納指盤中一度下跌79點。道指和標普500指數也損失慘重，盤中最大跌幅分別為205點和30點。幸運的是，臨近尾盤出現的多方勢力最終將道指和標普500指數成功托至前日收盤點位。

儘管週三大盤整體走弱，但Bowater Inc (BOW)卻大漲5%有餘。自我們在10月18日的"Swing Trader Bulletin"中介紹該股以來，BOW累計漲幅已超過15%。之前，美國司法部有條件地批准了Bowater Inc.和加拿大公司Abitibi-Consolidated Inc.之間的合併事宜。從技術面上看，BOW已做好了上漲的準備。上行目標約為21美元。

科技股週三的表現和我們週二晚間在"Cubes Speculator Bulletin" 文章中的預測相當一致："股市正在為『週三的反轉』做準備……預計『抄底者』會在53美元的價位附近入場。如QQQQ能守住這一支撐位，預計54美元將被重新考驗。" 不出所料，早盤低開之後，QQQQ跌入53美元區域，在遭遇更為猛烈的買進狂潮之後，該納斯達克100指數ETF(QQQQ)收盤前又重新回到了54美元水平之上。當日新建倉的QQQQ看漲期權盤中獲益約為30%。

總的來說，只要納斯達克100指數(NDX)能守在長達2個月的上升趨勢線支撐位之上，科技股投資者就不應過分擔心。

上面是標普500指數的短期日線圖。該指數已經再次成功考驗了上週五低點的支撐位。從技術面上看，這是看漲信號。今天該指數的後續表現若仍為上行，看漲信號將得到確認。預計約為1530點的短期阻力位不久將受到考驗。

上面是道指的短期日線圖。和標普500指數相似，昨天，該指數同樣牢牢地站上了上週五的低點。當然，這也是看漲信號。我們說過，道指已經做好準備向上測試上週五跌破的13800點短期阻力位。支撐位約為13400點。

總結：週三的交易狀況表明週四大盤看漲。此外，只要大盤能守在上週五低點的支撐位之上，股市整體走勢依然看漲。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

Bullish Bias for Thursday trading session

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Thursday October 25, 2007.

The negative response to Amazon's earning report triggered a massive sell-off in the high-flying technology stocks that saw a 79-point drop for the NASDAQ Composite at its lows for Wednesday session. The Dow and S&P suffered considerably, too, decline 205 and 30 points, respectively, at their worst levels. Fortunately, helped by the late-day buying interest, both of the Dow and S&P had managed to get back to around the zero line by the closing bell.

Despite the overall weakness, shares of Bowater Inc (BOW) jumped more than +5% Wednesday, or more than +15% since profiled in our "Swing Trader Bulletin" on October 18, after the U.S. Justice Department conditionally cleared a merger between Bowater Inc. and Canada's Abitibi-Consolidated Inc. Technically speaking, the stock is well position to rise. Upside target is about $21.

Speaking of tech, Wednesday's trading action was pretty consistent to what we've predicted in our Tuesday evening "Cubes Speculator Bulletin": "market is setting up for a "mid-week reversal"…we suspect that "buy-the-dippers" could step in around $53. Expect a retest of the $54 level if the Q's holds this support." As expected, the dip into the $53 zone followed the morning lousy opening was met with an even more aggressive wave of buying interest that sent the NASDAQ 100 Index ETF (QQQQ) back into the $54 level by the end of the day. The newly QQQQ call option setup gained about +30% intraday.

General speaking, tech investors shouldn't worry too much as long as the NASDAQ 100 (NDX) trades above support at the two-month rising trendline.

The S&P 500 Index (daily) chart above addresses a short-term time frame. The index had successfully retested support at last Friday's low. Technically speaking, this is bullish. An upside follow-through tomorrow will confirm this. Expect a test of short-term resistant about 1530 to follow shortly.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (daily) chart above addresses a short-term time frame. Similar to the S&P, the blue-chips index had also held firmly above last Friday's low. Again, this is bullish. As mentioned, the index is well position to test the short-term resistant at last Friday's bearish breakdown point around 13800. Support is about 13400.

In summary, Wednesday's trading action indicated a bullish bias for Thursday trading session. Further, the overall picture remains bullish as long as the market holds above support at last Friday's low.

Until next time, good luck!

(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Wednesday, October 24, 2007

NewsDesk: A Wild Day, Q’s +30%, SLAB +7%

Editor's Note: below are just some trading ideas flow from our latest Headlines.

"Cubes Speculator Bulletin":

October 23, 2007 @ 8:00 PM:

The market is setting up for a "mid-week reversal".
There is a high probability for the "gap filling". A decline to below $53.50 will confirm this.
We suspect that "buy-the-dippers" could step in around $53.
Expect a retest of the $54 level if the Q's holds well above this level.
New Option Setup: Long "Q's November 53 Call (QQQKA)" around Q's $53. Stop: around Q's $xxx. Target: around Q's $54; $5xxx.

As predicted the night before, the Q's danced its way into the $54 zone after the morning bearish gap open that sent the stock into the $53 area was met with an aggressive wave of buying. We've pocket a nice +30% profit from the call option setup as it achieved the first target in as little as 1 session.

"Swing Trader Bulletin":

October 17, 2007:

Long: SLAB.
Silicon Laboratories Inc (SLAB) traded like it wants to fill the early '06 gap. Trigger: a move ABVOE $4xxxx. Stop: around $4x. Target: $4x; $5x. Risk Rating: 3.

As you can see, despite the overall weakness, Silicon Laboratories Inc (SLAB) jumped more than +7% today on huge volume.

At Capital Essence, we target sudden profits - stocks that we can swing in and out for a quick 10-50% profit and 100-500% for options.

Want more investing ideas? Check out Capital Essence's Newsletter Services - "best-of-web" technical analysis.

技術前瞻：大市依然向好

Editor's note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence's CEM News on October 23, 2007. It's being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2007年10月24日 (週三) 的市場技術分析。

受美國運通(American Express)(AXP)、AT&T(T)、杜邦(DuPont)(DD)、UPS(UPS)、Burlington Northern (BNI)和蘋果(AAPL)等公司利好財報的推動，週二大盤高收。iPod的生產商蘋果公司漂亮的財報激發了大盤的做多動能，將納斯達克100指數送上多年來新高。

週二的高位突破使納斯達克100指數向上測試2001年2770點的峰值。實際上，指數週二的走勢同我們在週一晚間的"Cubes Speculator Bulletin" 中的預測是一致的："QQQQ重新測試54美元價位的可能性非常高。"儘管由於上午遭遇一波賣壓導致資金力量不足，追蹤納斯達克100的 ETF(QQQQ)一度下跌，但被一股更強大的做多勢力托住，一直將股價送上54.18美元的價位，為2001年來的最高收盤價。兩天內，新建倉的 QQQQ看漲期權漲幅高達68%。

上面是標普500指數的短期日線圖。同我們預料中一致，週二股指在成功測試50日均線的支撐後反轉上行。預計未來幾天股指將測試1530的短期壓力位。我們曾提到，對此點位的明確突破將預示著股指再度向上測試1560點的"關鍵反轉位"。

上面是道瓊斯工業平均指數的短期日線圖。同其他主要股指類似，該藍籌股指數週二同樣一度跌破50日均線支撐，但隨即遭遇強力做多動能，最後高收。該股指目前已經做好準備向上測試上週五跌破的13800點短期阻力位。支撐位在13400點附近。

總結：只要股市繼續在上週五低點之上運行，長期牛市依然不改。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

The overall picture remains bullish

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Wednesday October 24, 2007.

Stocks closed higher Tuesday amid a batch of good earnings news from American Express (AXP), AT&T (T), DuPont (DD), UPS (UPS), Burlington Northern (BNI) and Apple (AAPL). Speaking of Apple, the iPod maker's upbeat earning report had fueled a board buying interest that sent the NASDAQ 100 Index to a new multi-year high.

Today's bullish breakout positioned the tech rich index to test the 2001 high about 2770. As a matter of fact, Tuesday trading action was very consistent to what we've predicted in our Monday evening "Cubes Speculator Bulletin": "there is a high probability for a retest of the $54 level". Despite the pocket of weakness which contributed to a mid-morning sell-off, the NASDAQ 100 Index ETF (QQQQ) maintained a bullish bias as the dip was greeted by an even more aggressive wave of buying interest that pushed the stock to $54.18 – the best closing level since 2001. The newly QQQQ call option setup gained as much as +68% in just 2 days.

The S&P 500 Index (daily) chart above addresses a short-term time frame. As expected, the board market index moved higher Tuesday followed a successful test of support at the 50-day moving average. Expect a test of short-term resistant about 1530 in the upcoming days. As mentioned, a clear breakout above this level indicates a retest of the bearish "key reversal point" about 1560.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (daily) chart above addresses a short-term time frame. Similar to its peers, the blue-chips index also closed higher today after the dip [into the 50-day moving average] was greeted by an aggressive wave of buying interest. The index is well position to test the short-term resistant at last Friday's bearish breakdown point around 13800. Support is about 13400.

In summary, the overall picture remains bullish as long as the market holds above last Friday's low.

Until next time, good luck!

(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Tuesday, October 23, 2007

技術前瞻：仍未脫離險境

Editor's note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence's CEM News on October 22, 2007. It's being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2007年10月23日 (週二) 的市場技術分析。

週一股市全面振作，從而確認了我們"反方向回彈"的看法。在科技股的帶領下，主要大盤指標均高收。標普500指數上漲5.70點，報收 1,506.33點，漲幅0.38%。科技股主導的納指上漲28.77點，報收2,753.93點，漲幅1.06%。事實上，週一的交易狀況和我們在週五晚間"Cubes Speculator Bulletin" 文章的預測非常一致。當時我們說："逢低買進……如果QQQQ能在52美元附近成功吸引到抄底買家，預計它將上探53美元。" 果然，在初次跌至52美元而迅速遭遇抄底盤之後，納斯達克100指數ETF(QQQQ) 一度漲至53.12美元。新建倉的看漲期權盤中獲益約為30%。

上面是納指的短期日線圖。以科技股為主的納指考驗了50日均線支撐位。預計該指數在該支撐位置會有小幅震盪。阻力位約為2770點。

上面是標普500指數的短期日線圖。和納指相似，該指數也考驗了50日均線支撐位。這當然是令人鼓舞的現象。阻力位約為1530點。果斷突破該阻力位預示著看跌的"關鍵反轉點"——約1560點——將重新受到考驗。

總結：股市週一從極度超賣狀態的回彈無疑令人振作，但我們仍未脫離危險。預計在多頭將標普500指數成功推上1540點之前，股市在當前水平仍會起伏不定。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

Expect things to be sloppy at current level

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Tuesday October 23, 2007.

Stocks gained ground across the board Monday and hence confirmed our "counter-trend rebound" notion. Broader stock indicators finished higher, with tech stocks leading. The S&P 500 Index rose +5.70, or +0.38%, to 1,506.33, and the technology-dominated NASDAQ Composite Index rose +28.77, or +1.06 percent, to 2,753.93. As a matter of fact, Monday trading action was very consistent to what we've predicted in our Friday evening "Cubes Speculator Bulletin": "buy the dip…expect a test of …$53, if the Q's manages to lure some bargain hunters around the $52 level". The NASDAQ 100 Index ETF (QQQQ) reached as high as $53.12 after an initial lower move into the $52 level was quickly met with bottom-fishing interest. The newly in-the-money call option setup gained about +30% intraday.

The NASDAQ Composite Index (daily) chart above addresses a short-term time frame. The tech rich index bounced off support at the 50-day moving average. Expect things to be a bit sloppy at the level. Resistant is about 2770.

The S&P 500 Index (daily) chart above addresses a short-term time frame. Similar to the NASDAQ, the board market index had also bounced off support at the 50-day moving average. The action is, of course, encouraging. Resistant is about 1530. A clear breakout above this level indicates a retest of the bearish "key reversal point" about 1560.

In summary, Monday rebound from an extreme oversold condition is definitely refreshing though we aren't out of the wood yet. Until the bull mange to push the tape to above S&P 1540, expect things to be sloppy at current level.

Until next time, good luck!

(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Monday, October 22, 2007

Market Up, Q’s Soared

Editor's Note: below are just some trading ideas flow from our latest Headlines.

We've offered in the previous Market Outlook:

"Market had reached a short-term extreme oversold condition, a situation that is a precursor to a counter-trend rebound."

Stocks gained ground across the board Monday with the NASDAQ gained more than +28 points or +1.06% to 2753. The trading action was very consistent to what we've predicted in our Friday evening "Cubes Speculator Bulletin":

October 19, 2007 @ 10:30 PM:

"Buy the dip…the Q's is likely to move lower Monday. Expect a test of …$53, if the Q's manages to lure some bargain hunters around the $52 level".

The Q's bounced off nicely after an initial lower move into the $52 level (the exact morning low was $52.02) was greeted by a new wave of buying interest. The stock reached as high as $53.12. The newly in-the-money call option setup gained about +30% intraday.

Want more investing ideas? Check out Capital Essence's Newsletter Services - "best-of-web" technical analysis.

技術前瞻：短期反彈在即

Editor's note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence's CEM News on October 19, 2007. It's being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2007年10月22日 (週一) 的市場技術分析。

我們在上週一的前瞻分析中指出："股市已經到達跨越所有分析時段的超買區域，進入了關鍵整固階段的前奏狀態……即將到來的盤整不但明顯還很迅速。"不出所料，上週五美股低開，道指重挫367點，報收13522點，跌幅達2.6%。然而和20年前的黑色星期一相比，上週五的損失還不算大。道指在那個週一暴跌了22.6%。

總而言之，上週五對華爾街來說是非常糟糕的一天，儘管當日情況並非完全出人意料。事實上，上週五的交易狀況和我們之前在"Cubes Speculator Bulletin"文章中的預測非常一致。

編者註："FXY與標普500指數"的比較圖最早刊登在2007年10月18日Capital Essence的Cubes Speculator Bulletin上。現在，該圖在此重新發佈，以饗讀者。

我們在10月18日"Cubes Speculator Bulletin" 的文章中指出："日元似乎有走高的趨向，而這對多頭來講可不是個好兆頭。圖中可以看出，日元在7月初期的看漲突破是夏季大規模拋賣的『前兆』(請見圖表上方的2個藍色區域)。MACD同樣也給看漲突破一個沉重的『打擊』(請見圖表下方的黃色區域)。簡言之，美股正面臨大規模的殺多行情。"