Capital Essence Blog - 錢途集團: 09/01/2007

Friday, September 28, 2007

Trading Ideas: Get a big bang for your buck

[Capital Essence NewsDesk] Editor's Note: below are just some trading ideas flow from our latest Headlines.

"Swing Trader Bulletin"

Shares of Immersion Corporation (IMMR) – a long holding in our "Swing Trader Bulletin" Portfolio – jumped as much as +6% this morning on the heel of Thursday's whopping +14% gains.As a matter of fact, we've sold a slew of IMMR this morning as the stock tested the first upside target for a quick but very nice +15% profit.

"Cubes Speculator Bulletin"

September 27, 2007 @ 11:00 PM

As mentioned, profit taking on big names like GOOG, MSFT, AMZN… continues. And again, this does not bode well for the bulls.
We are not feeling very good about today trading action.
The rally from August's 16 low looks exhausted.

As predicted, QQQQ stalled out around the $51.60 level and headed south Friday afternoon. The stock hit as low as $51.18. Any put option traded could have booked in a nice 30% profit intraday.

Want more investing ideas? Check out Capital Essence's Newsletter Services - "best-of-web" technical analysis.

The bulls still in charge

Editor's note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence's CEM News on September 27, 2007. It's being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Friday September 28, 2007.

As we've predicted in the previous Market Outlook: "short-term outlook is bullish until proven otherwise" – equity market proved to be resilient Thursday, finishing moderately higher in the face of mixed economic news and high oil prices. The Dow gained 34 points for the day to finish at 13912. It worth notice that the blue-chip index is about 100 points to an all-time high of 14021.95 recorded on July 17, 2007. The S&P 500 Index added about 6 points to finish at 1531. General speaking, today trading action had not only confirmed but also enhanced the already bullish outlook.

One stock that jumped up on the day was Immersion Corporation (IMMR) – a long holding in our "Swing Trader Bulletin" Portfolio. Shares of the computer peripherals maker rocketed more than +14% Thursday amid a new wave of aggressive buying.

The Standard & Poors 500 Index (daily) chart above addresses a short-term time frame. As expected, the index followed through to the upside on the heel of yesterday bullish breakout from the small pennant. As a matter of fact, things could still little sloppy in this area though an advance to above the 1540 level, especially a clear breakout above 1,555 would set the stage for an explosion higher, possibly into the 1630 area.

The Dow Jones Industrials Average (daily) chart above addresses a short-term time frame. The blue-chip index continues to base sideway near high. In fact, today trading action is considered bullish given the overbought condition. As noted above, the index is about a hundred points away from the all-time high. Apparently, the target is just too tempting for traders to resist. With that said, there is a high probability for a move toward the 14K before the third quarter's window closes.

Bottom line: Thursday's trading action suggests that the bulls still in charge. Although bear in mind that tomorrow is the third quarter's last trading session and if the bulls fail to impress investors on this very day, expect things to get really naughty for the rest of the year.

Until next time, good luck.

(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It's now available at a monthly rate.

技術前瞻：多頭仍處於支配地位

這是Capital Essence對2007年9月28日 (週五) 的市場技術分析。

在昨天的前瞻分析中我們曾預測："除非出現相反證據，股市短期前景看漲"。不出所料，面對好壞參半的經濟數據以及高企的油價，股市週四最終小幅高收，表現出了彈性。當日道指上漲34點，報收13912點。值得注意的是道指距2007年7月 17日創下的歷史高點——14021.95約有100點的差距。昨日，標普500指數上漲6點，收於1531點。總的來說，週四的交易表現不僅確認而且鞏固了當前的牛市前景。

我們"Swing Trader Bulletin"投資組合中的長期持股——Immersion Corporation (IMMR) 昨日表現不凡。受新一輪猛烈買盤的推動，週四這家電腦周邊設備製造商的股價高漲了14%以上。

上面是標普500指數的短期日線圖。如前所料，承接前一天從小三角區的看漲突破，該指數昨天繼續上行。事實上，該指數儘管站上了1540點，但情況仍不十分明朗，如果能夠果斷地突破1555點，則將為目標為1630點的爆發打下基礎。

上面是道指的短期日線圖。該指數仍在高點附近的橫向區間打底。事實上，鑒於超買的形勢，昨天的交易狀況仍然看漲。前面說過，該指數距離歷史高點有 100點的差距。顯然，該目標的誘惑力對交易者來說是難以阻擋的。因此，在第三季度結束之前，該指數向14000點挺進的可能性很大。

總結：週四的交易狀況表明多頭仍處於支配地位。儘管如此，請記住今天是第三季度的最後一個交易日，如果今天多頭沒能吸引投資者加入，預計本年度餘下時間股市將變得十分不可琢磨。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

Thursday, September 27, 2007

Trading Ideas: Educate Your Way to Better Trading

[Capital Essence NewsDesk] As we've predicted in the previous Market Outlook:

"Short-term outlook is bullish until proven otherwise"

Stocks added on to previous gains with the Dow up 34 points to 13912. It worth notice that the blue-chip index is about 100 points to an all-time high of 14021.95 recorded on July 17, 2007. The S&P 500 Index added about 6 points to finish at 1531.

Overall, it was a good day on the Street and so our "Swing Trader Bulletin". As a matter of fact, of the eight different portfolio holdings, four posted an average gain of 2-4%, two carried a gain of 1-2% and only two decline less than 1% for the day. Moneygram International (MGI) gained +$0.70 or 3.24% today. The position holds an unrealized gain of about 5% in just 2 days. Trizetto Group Inc (TZIX) gained +$0.27 or 1.50% today. The position holds an amazing unrealized gain of 7.50% since profiled a couple days ago. CBIZ Inc (CBZ) gained +$0.26 or 3.36% today. The position holds an unrealized gain of 6% since profiled a couple days ago.

Editor's Note: below are just some trading ideas flow from our latest Headlines.

"Cubes Speculator Bulletin"

September 26, 2007 @ 10:30 PM

As expected, the speculative action remains though there are signs of profit taking on big names like GOOG, MSFT, AMZN…etc. And this does not bode well for the bulls.
The "cubes" is short-term overbought.
We're back to the wait-and-see period.

As predicted, QQQQ whipsaw around the flat-line for an entire Thursday session.

Did you see how easy it is to become a successful trader? All you have to do is come to the right place and applied the right tools. At Capital Essence, we offer the best trading education.

Want more investing ideas? Check out Capital Essence's Newsletter Services - "best-of-web" technical analysis.

Trading Ideas: Educate Your Way to Better Trading

[Capital Essence NewsDesk] As we've predicted in the previous Market Outlook:

"Short-term outlook is bullish until proven otherwise"

Editor's Note: below are just some trading ideas flow from our latest Headlines.

"Cubes Speculator Bulletin"

September 26, 2007 @ 10:30 PM

As expected, the speculative action remains though there are signs of profit taking on big names like GOOG, MSFT, AMZN…etc. And this does not bode well for the bulls.
The "cubes" is short-term overbought.
We're back to the wait-and-see period.

As predicted, QQQQ whipsaw around the flat-line for an entire Thursday session.

Did you see how easy it is to become a successful trader? All you have to do is come to the right place and applied the right tools. At Capital Essence, we offer the best trading education.

Want more investing ideas? Check out Capital Essence's Newsletter Services - "best-of-web" technical analysis.

技術前瞻：短期仍看漲

Editor's note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence's CEM News on September 26, 2007. It's being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2007年9月27日 (週四) 的市場技術分析。

在昨天的前瞻分析中我們說過："股市就要出現大的轉機。[週二] 的交易狀況表明阻力最小的通道仍為上行"。果然，週三股市全面反彈，道指上漲100點左右，漲幅0.72%，報收13878點。

我們 "Swing Trader Bulletin" 投資組合中的長期持股——American Eagle Outfitters Inc (AEO) 昨日表現不凡。週三，這家服飾製造商的股價高漲了5%以上。之前Wachovia Capital Markets的一位分析師調升了AEO的股票評級，認為該公司在商品線、利潤率和股價方面具有優勢。

我們已經在"Cubes Speculator Bulletin"文章中說過："高貝塔值股票背後存在非常激進的投機行為。因為基金經理們都盡全力在第三季度結束之前補充自己的持股數量。這一狀況很可能在明天繼續出現。"不出所料，高貝塔值的指數——納斯達克100指數昨天的表現仍優於其它同類大型股指數。

圖中可以看出，昨天納斯達克100指數再次創下數年來的新高，而納指則仍在7月高點的下方運行。事實上，這種"分裂"的市場形態不會一直持續下去。大盤走勢還是上行，我們應該對此表示尊重。

上面是標普500指數的短期日線圖。該指數正在穿越長達6天的三角區的上邊界。總的來講，這是看漲的圖表形態。我們說過，該指數看漲突破該三角區的上邊界預示7月高點——約1555點將受到考驗。

上面是道指的短期日線圖。顯然，該指數昨天正在對13870-14000點的上方"關鍵"阻力位進行考驗。當前，我們不知道多頭是否能夠成功拿下該阻力位，但是持續突破14000點將引起該指數一次中期反彈，從而可能將該指數推至15000點水平。

總結：除非出現相反證據，股市短期前景看漲。儘管如此，今天還是要對修正後的第二季度GDP數據以及新屋銷售報告加以關注，因為這兩個報告都有可能改變股市的運行方向。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

Bullish until proven otherwise

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Thursday September 27, 2007.

We've offered in the previous Market Outlook that "market is due for a big move. [Tuesday] trading action suggested that the path with least resistant is still to the upside"; stock rallied across the board Wednesday with Dow gained about +100 points or +0.72% to finish at 13878.

One stock that jumped up on the day was American Eagle Outfitters Inc (AEO) – a long holding of our "Swing Trader Bulletin" Portfolio. Shares of the apparel maker soared more than 5% Wednesday after a Wachovia Capital Markets analyst raised his rating on the teen retailer, citing stronger merchandise lines, improved margins and a good price for the stock.

As we've noted on the "Cubes Speculator Bulletin": "there are signs of very aggressive speculative actions in the high-beta stocks. Why? Fund managers are doing their best to beef up their numbers before the third quarter's curtain closes. More likely than not, we should continue to see the same action tomorrow." Unsurprisingly, the high-beta index, NASDAQ-100, continues to outperform its larger peers.

As you can see, the NASDAQ-100 Index printed another multi-year high today whereas the NASDAQ Composite Index is still trading below the July's peak. In fact, this kind of "split personality" market doesn't last forever though until then, the trend is up and we should respect it.

The Standard & Poors 500 Index (daily) chart above addresses a short-term time frame. The board market index is penetrating the upper border of the six-day old pennant. General speaking, this is one bullish looking chart. As mentioned, a bullish breakout above the pennant's upper border indicates a test of July's high about 1555.

The Dow Jones Industrials Average (daily) chart above addresses a short-term time frame. Apparently, the blue-chip index is conducting a test of the "major" overhead resistant that runs from 13870-14000 today. At this moment, it's unknown that the bulls can successfully take out this resistant or not. Although a sustain breakout above the 14K level will spark an intermediate-term rally that might propel prices into the 15K level.

Bottom line: the short-term outlook is bullish until proven otherwise. Although keep an eye on the final Q2 GDP and new home sales reports, which are scheduled to release Thursday morning at 8:30 AM ET and 10:00 AM ET respectively, for they have the potential to move the market one way or the other.

Until next time, good luck.

(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Wednesday, September 26, 2007

The trend is your best friend

[Capital Essence NewsDesk] As we've predicted in the previous Market Outlook:

"Market is due for a big move. Today's trading action suggested that the path with least resistant is still to the upside"

Stocks gapped up nicely Wednesday morning and traded higher into the close with the Dow up as much as +130 points intraday before gave back some of the gains to finish at 13878, up +99 points or +0.72%. Any Dow Diamonds ETF (DIA) call options traded could have earned about 50% intraday.

Editor's Note: below are just some trading ideas flow from our latest Headlines.

"Cubes Speculator Bulletin"

September 25, 2007 @ 10:00 PM

The "cubes" broke out again this afternoon …the trend is up and we should respect it.
There are signs of very aggressive speculative actions in the high-beta stocks.
Why? Fund managers are doing their best to beef up their numbers before the third quarter's curtain closes.
More likely than not, we should continue to see the same action tomorrow.

You see, QQQQ gapped up nicely this morning and tested the expected $51.50 level. As a matter of fact, the latest call option setup achieved the third target of $51.50 today. The position booked in an incredible gain of +40% in as little as 2 days.

Want more investing ideas? Check out Capital Essence's Newsletter Services - "best-of-web" technical analysis.

技術前瞻：股市就要出現大轉機

Editor's note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence's CEM News on September 25, 2007. It's being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2007年9月26日 (週三) 的市場技術分析。

週二股市漲跌不一。標普500指數略微低收，報1,517點，納斯達克100指數上漲19.58點，漲幅為1%，報收2,076點。這和我們之前在"Cubes Speculator Bulletin" 文章中所說的一樣。我們說過："鑒於當前的超買形勢，週一行情看漲。大盤走勢為上行，與之對抗並非明智之舉。前一交易日高點——約51 美元的價位被重新考驗的可能性很高"。事實上，納斯達克100指數ETF(QQQQ) 週二實現突破並創下了新高。該ETF早盤呈現出的弱勢被多方的猛烈買進熱潮一掃而空，該ETF一度漲至51.09美元。新建倉的看漲期權僅一天就獲得了 20%的可觀收益。

毋庸贅言，昨天的看漲突破為科技股奠定了良好的基調。

上面是納斯達克100指數的長期月線圖。圖中可以看出，近期的看漲突破已經將該指數推至上方主要的阻力位位置。請記住，該指數若能站上該阻力位，將為考驗01年高點——約2770點打下基礎。01年高點距此有30%的差幅。

上面是標普500指數的短期日線圖。顯然，該指數已經成功考驗了短期移動平均線的支撐位。這是看漲的信號。我們說過，要對長達5天的三角區加以關注，因為該形態通常會在與整體走勢相同的方向中消逝。該指數看漲突破該三角區的上邊界預示7月高點——約1555點將受到考驗。

上面是道指的短期日線圖。和標普500指數類似，該指數也形成了一個小型的多頭旗形。前面說過，看漲突破該旗形表明7月高點——約14000點將受到考驗。

總結：顯然，股市就要出現大的轉機了。週二的交易狀況表明阻力最小的通道仍為上行。同時再考慮到"季末業績行情"，一切都表明大盤已做好了考驗7月高點的準備。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

Market is due for a big move

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Wednesday September 26, 2007.

Equity market finished mix Tuesday with the Standard & Poor's 500 Index was off slightly to 1,517 and the NASDAQ-100 Index was up 19.58 points or about 1% to 2,076 just as we've offered in the previous "Cubes Speculator Bulletin": "Monday trading action is considered bullish given the overbought condition. The trend is up and it's not wise to fight it. There is a high probability for a retest of yesterday's high about $51." As a matter of fact, the NASDAQ-100 Index ETF (QQQQ) broke out to a new record high Tuesday and hit as high as $51.09 after the morning weakness was met by an aggressive wave of buying. The newly call option setup booked in a nice 20% in just 1 day.

Needless to say, today's bullish breakout had set a positive tone for tech stocks.

The NASDAQ 100 Index (monthly) chart above addresses a long-term time frame. As you can see, the recent bullish breakout had propelled the index into the area of a major overhead resistant. Bear in mind that an advance to above this level will set the stage for a test of '01 high about 2770, which is about 30% from here.

The Standard & Poors 500 Index (daily) chart above addresses a short-term time frame. Apparently, the board market index had successfully tested support at the area of the short-term moving average. This is bullish. As mentioned, keep an eye on the five days old pennant as these patterns tend to "resolve" in the direction of the overall trend. Again, a bullish breakout above the pennant's upper border indicates a test of July's high about 1555.

The Dow Jones Industrials Average (daily) chart above addresses a short-term time frame. Similar to the S&P 500, the blue-chip index had also form a small bull flag. As noted above, a bullish breakout from the flag indicates a test of July's high about 14K.

Bottom line: apparently, market is due for a big move. Today's trading action suggested that the path with least resistant is still to the upside. Combining these with the "quarter-end performance anxiety" suggests that the stage had been set for a test of July's high.

Until next time, good luck.

Tuesday, September 25, 2007

S&P Flat, Cubes Speculator Bulletin Soared

[Capital Essence NewsDesk] Editor's Note: below are just some trading ideas flow from our latest Headlines.

"Cubes Speculator Bulletin"

September 24, 2007 @ 9:30 PM

Today trading action is considered bullish given the overbought condition.
The trend is up and it'd not be wise to fight it.
There is a high probability for a test of today's breakdown point at $50.80.
A move above $50.60 will confirm this.

September 25, 2007 @ 11:30 AM

As discussed, we've initiated a "QQQQ October 50 Call Option (QQQJX)" position as QQQQ broke ABOVE $50.60 this morning.
The "cubes" is consolidating as I type.
So far so good. As long as it holds above the morning low, there is a high probability for a retest of yesterday's high about $51.

As you can see, QQQQ tested the expected $50.80 level followed a bullish breakout above the $50.60 level this morning. Further, as predicted, after a brief consolidation, the stock broke out nicely in the afternoon [followed our 11:30 alert] and retested the $51 level (yesterday high). The call option booked in a nice +21% for the day.

You see, successful trading is all about the quack count. If the ducks align, we'll give you a ping in advance so that you'll have sufficient time to "hit 'em hard". When they don't, we'll also chime in so that you can take a day off and go play golf. It's so easy, even a 10 years old kid can do it.

Want more investing ideas? Check out Capital Essence's Newsletter Services - "best-of-web" technical analysis.

技術前瞻：注意標普500的小三角區

Editor's note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence's CEM News on September 24, 2007. It's being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2007年9月25日 (週二) 的市場技術分析。

如前所料，股市週一高開，納斯達克100指數(NDX) 突破並創下數年來的新高。但是，這一高位遭遇了更為猛烈的拋盤的打擊。以科技股為主的NDX收盤時雖然距盤中高點——2072.70.點相差甚多，但還是成功高收，上漲8點，至2057點。

事實上，納斯達克100指數(NDX)昨天的交易狀況和我們之前在"Cubes Speculator Bulletin"文章中的觀點非常一致。我們說過："突破50.60美元意味著第三個目標——51美元將被考驗" 。果然，昨日上午，納斯達克100指數ETF(QQQQ)在看漲突破50.60美元之後，曾一度攀升至50.96美元。當日任何看漲期權盤中都將獲得約 30%的收益。

來看主要股指：

上面是標普500指數的短期日線圖。值得注意的是，該指數已經形成了小型的三角區。按照教科書上的說法，這種形態通常會在與整體走勢相同的方向中消逝。而當前整體走勢為上揚。因此，如果該指數看漲突破該三角區的上邊界，大盤考驗7月高點——約1555點的可能性將增大。

上面是道指的短期日線圖。在股市消化上週收益的同時，納指也繼續在高點附近的橫向區間打底。技術面而言，這一表現完全正常並且是看漲的信號。短期阻力位約為13880點。大盤向上突破該水平預示著7月的高點——約14000點將被考驗。短期支撐位約為13739.點。請記住，大盤跌破這一支撐位表明近期看張突破點的支撐位將受到考驗。

總結：交易者應該注意標普500指數的小型三角區。我們說過，從該三角區上邊界的看漲突破將為大盤考驗7月高點打下基礎。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

Keep an eye on the small S&P pennant

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Tuesday September 25, 2007.

As predicted, stocks opened on a positive note Monday morning with the NASDAQ-100 Index (NDX) broke out to a new multi-year high. The high was, however, greeted by an even more aggressive wave of selling. The tech rich index managed to close in the positive territory, up 8 points to 2057, though well below the intraday high of 2072.70.

As a matter of fact, the NASDAQ 100 Index (NDX) trading action was very consistent with what we've noted in our "Cubes Speculator Bulletin":「an advance to above $50.60 indicates a test of the third target about $51.」The NASDAQ-100 Index ETF (QQQQ) climbed as high as $50.96 followed a bullish breakout above the $50.60 level this morning. Any call option traded could have made about 30% intraday.

Let's take a look at the major index charts:

The Standard & Poors 500 Index (daily) chart above addresses a short-term time frame. It worth notice that the board market index had formed a small pennant. Should the text book stands true, these patterns tend to "resolve" in the direction of the overall trend, which is up in this case. With that said, a bullish breakout above the pennant's upper border will increase the probability for a test of July's high about 1555.

The Dow Jones Industrials Average (daily) chart above addresses a short-term time frame. The blue-chip index continues to base sideway near high as the market digesting last week's gain. Technically speaking, the action is completely normal and bullish. Short-term Resistant is about 13880. An advance to above this level indicates a test of July's high about 14K. Short-term support is about 13739. Bear in mind that a decline to below this level suggests a test of support at recent bullish breakout point.

Bottom line: Trader should keep an eye on the small S&P pennant. As mentioned, a bullish breakout from the pennant's upper border will set the stage for a test of July's high.

Until next time, good luck.

(By: Michelle Mai)

Monday, September 24, 2007

Market Down, Cubes Up

[Capital Essence NewsDesk] As predicted, stocks opened on a positive note Monday morning with the NASDAQ-100 Index (NDX) broke out to a new multi-year high. The high was, however, met by an even more aggressive wave of selling. The tech rich index managed to close in the positive territory, up 8 points to 2057.75, though well below the intraday high of 2072.53.

Editor's Note: below are just some trading ideas flow from our latest Headlines.

"Cubes Speculator Bulletin"

September 23, 2007 @ 3:30 PM

An advance to above $50.60 indicates a test of the third target about $51.

September 24, 2007 @ 10:30 AM

The "Cubes" is consolidating around the $50.90 level as I type

We'll take some money off the table.

As you can see, after climbing as high as $50.96 followed a bullish breakout above the expected $50.60 level this morning, QQQQ declined immediately after our intraday alert @ 10:30 am.

Want more investing ideas? Check out Capital Essence's Newsletter Services - "best-of-web" technical analysis.

技術前瞻：多頭仍將處於支配地位

Editor's note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence's CEM News on September 23, 2007. It's being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2007年9月24日 (週一) 的市場技術分析。

在上次的前瞻分析中我們指出："交易者無需對[週四的]下跌過分擔憂，那只不過是一次強勢上漲後的獲利回吐" 。果然，上週五股市漂亮地高開，直至收盤一直保持漲勢。最終，標普500指數上漲7點，當日漲幅為0.46%，周累計增長2.80%。這當然是不錯的收益，但和石油以及黃金相比還稍顯不足。石油和黃金指數的周漲幅分別為5.34%和3.42%。

在我們對Gold Bugs以及現貨黃金做出看漲評論之後，不到兩週時間，Gold Bugs以及現貨黃金立即上漲了約12%。技術面而言，上週的看漲突破應該有能力將金價推至450美元的位置。

圖中可以看出，自我們在文章中將石油服務類指數定為潛在買進對像後，該指數在4周內的累計漲幅已超過12%。技術面而言，上週的看漲突破應該有能力將該指數送至300美元水平。

來看主要股指：

上面是標普500指數的中期周線圖。顯然，繼上週的看漲突破後，該指數正向考驗7月高點阻力位的方向挺進。此次考驗至關重要，因為一旦考驗失敗，"看跌的雙重頂"將形成。目前支撐位約為1440點，阻力位為7月高點——約1555點。

上面是道指的中期周線圖。和標普500指數類似，繼上週的看漲突破之後，該指數也正向考驗7月高點阻力位的方向挺進。我們說過，鑒於7、8月份的下滑幅度，考驗一旦失敗，多頭的壓力將比從前更大一些。目前支撐位約為13000點。阻力位為7月高點——約14000點。

上面是納指的中期周線圖。和其他兩大股指類似，以科技股為主的納指也同樣向考驗7月高點阻力位的方向挺進。值得注意的是，8月16日至今上漲時的成交量略低於7、8月份拋賣時的成交量。這並不大令人鼓舞。但是，只要股價沒有跌破8月低點的支撐位——約2386點，多頭仍將佔據上風。目前阻力位為 7月高點——約2724點。

總結：總體來說，繼上週看漲突破之後，新的多頭上漲已經開始。從前，十月份並非有利於多頭市場的月份。但是，股價要漲，我們就要對此表示尊重。因此，只要股市能夠守住上週的看漲突破點，多頭仍將處於支配地位。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

The bulls remain largely in charge

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Monday September 24, 2007.

We've offered in the previous Market Outlook that: "traders shouldn't worry too much about [Thursday's] decline, which was nothing more than a profit taking effort following the strong run"; stocks gapped up nicely last Friday morning and remained positive into the close with the S&P 500 rose 7 points or +0.46% for the day and +2.80% for the week. The gain is, of course, nice though it's relative small as compare to those of Oil and Gold, which had gained +5.34% and +3.42% respectively.

Gold Bugs, and so spot gold, jumped about +12% in less than 2 weeks immediately followed our bullish comment. Technically speaking, last week's bullish breakout should have the power to propel prices into the $450 area.

As you can see, the Oil Service Index jumped more than 12% in about 4 weeks since featured right here as a potential buy. Technically speaking, last week's bullish breakout should have the power to propel prices into the $300 area.

Let's take a look at the major index charts:

The Standard & Poors 500 Index (weekly) chart above addresses an intermediate-term time frame. Apparently, the board market index is heading for a test of resistant at July's high followed last week's bullish breakout. This is a very important test for a failure to take out this level will spark a "bearish double top" talk. Support is about 1440. Resistant is at July's high, about 1555.

The Dow Jones Industrials Average (weekly) chart above addresses an intermediate-term time frame. Similar to the S&P 500, the blue-chip index is also heading for a test of resistant at July's high followed last week's bullish breakout. As mentioned, given the magnitude of the July-August decline, a failure to take out this level will give the bulls more pressure than they've already had. Support is about 13K. Resistant is at July's high, about 14K.

The NASDAQ Composite Index (weekly) chart above addresses an intermediate-term time frame. Similar to its peers, the tech rich index is also heading for a test of resistant at July's high. It worth notice that of the August 16 to present up-leg's volume was relatively lower than that of the July-August sell-off. And this isn't very encouraging. Although, the bulls still have the upper hand unless prices drop to below support around the August's low at 2386. Resistant is at July's high about 2724.

Bottom line: general speaking, a new bull leg had begun after last week's bullish breakout. Historically, October isn't a bull market friendly month. However, prices are going up and we have to respect that. With that said, the bulls remain largely in charge as long as the market holds above last week's bullish breakout point.

Until next time, good luck.

(By: Michelle Mai)

Friday, September 21, 2007

A Winning Week for all

[Capital Essence NewsDesk] We've offered in the previous Market Outlook that:

"Traders shouldn't worry too much about [Thursday's] decline, which was nothing more than a profit taking effort following the strong run"

Stocks gapped up nicely Friday morning and remained positive into the close with the S&P 500 rose 7 points or +0.46% for the day and +2.80% for the week. Although, the gain is relative small as compare to those of Oil and Gold, which had gained +5.34% and +3.42% respectively.

Gold Bugs, and so spot gold, jumped about +12% in less than 2 weeks immediately followed our bullish comment on the Market Outlook.

As you can see, the Oil Service Index jumped more than 12% in about 4 weeks since featured on the Market Outlook as a potential BUY.

Overall it was a very nice week on the Street and so the "Swing Trader Bulletin". Below are just a couple of the dozens of winning setup that our CEM News subscribers had enjoyed recently:

Cepheid (CPHD) +40% since profiled on August 3.

Omniture Inc (OMTR) +20% since profiled a couple days ago - on September 7 @ $24.53.

Concur Technologies Inc (CNQR) broke out to new high. The stock rose +20% since profiled a couple weeks ago - on August 30 @ $25.55.

Advent Software Inc (ADVS) gained about $10 points or +25% since profiled a couple weeks ago.

…and a lot more (click here to see for yourself).

Want more investing ideas? Check out Capital Essence's Newsletter Services - "best-of-web" technical analysis.

技術前瞻：當心「四重魔力日」

Editor's note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence's CEM News on September 20, 2007. It's being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2007年9月21日 (週五) 的市場技術分析。

我們在"Cubes Speculator Bulletin" 的文章中曾對股市做出這樣的評論："價格動能指標處於盤整前的水平。QQQQ在其高點附近已形成看跌的"陀螺柱"形態。再加上即將到來的四重魔力日的不可預知性，盤整可能就此開始"。我們的看跌評論發出之後，週四股市立刻出現小幅下滑，主要股指的平均跌幅約為0.50%。

黃金指數成為昨天大盤最耀眼的焦點。現貨黃金價格上漲超過12美元，漲幅為1.74%，報收733.75美元，創下新高。

自我們對該板塊做出看漲評價之後，金價已累計上漲40美元以上，漲幅為5.32%。技術面而言，昨天的看漲突破應該有能力將金價送至750美元的位置。

來看主要股指：

上面是標普500指數的短期日線圖。顯然，該指數正向考驗近期突破點——約1500點的支撐位方向挺進。只要該指數能夠守住這一支撐位，多頭仍將佔據優勢。

上面是道指的短期日線圖。和標普500指數類似，該指數昨天也展開了小幅回調。技術面而言，昨日的下滑不會造成任何的恐慌，因為這只是強勁攀升之後的一次小範圍獲利回吐——在週四之前，道指本週的累計漲幅已近3.0%。當前支撐位約為13695點。

總結：如前所述，交易者無需對昨天股市的下跌過分擔憂，那只不過是一次強勢上漲後的獲利回吐。同時，今天將是一個四重魔力日，即指數期權、指數期貨、股票期權以及股票期貨都將在今天到期。根據以往經驗，今天的行情有可能完全"超出常理"，因此在此刻挑戰股市並 8750;明智之舉。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

Quadruple witching day

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Friday September 21, 2007.

Equity market moved modestly lower Thursday with a majority of major indices lost about -0.50% in average immediately followed our bearish note on the "Cubes Speculator Bulletin": "price momentum indicator is at level that precedes a correction. QQQQ had printed a bearish "spinning top bar" near high. Combining these with the unpredictable behavior of the upcoming quadruple witching day, suggests we may be encountered the beginning of a consolidation."

Gold was the shiniest spot in today's lousy tape. Spot gold jumped more than $12 or +1.74% to $733.75- a new record high.

The yellow metal jumps more than $40 or +5.32% since our bullish comment. Technically speaking, today bullish breakout should have the power to propel prices into the $750 area.

Let's take a look at the major index charts:

The Standard & Poors 500 Index (daily) chart above addresses a short-term time frame. Apparently, the board market index is heading for a test of support at recent breakout point, about 1500. The bulls still have the upper hand as long as the index holds above this level.

The Dow Jones Industrials Average (daily) chart above addresses a short-term time frame. Similar to the S&P 500, the blue-chip index had also pulled back a bit today. Technically speaking, the decline shouldn't cause any alarm as the move was just a small profit taking following the strong run – the Dow was up nearly 3.0% for the week before entering today's session. Immediately support is about 13695.

Bottom line: as noted above, traders shouldn't worry too much about today decline, which was nothing more than a profit taking effort following the strong run. Also, as mentioned, tomorrow is the quadruple witching day, a day on which stock index options, stock index futures, stock options and single stock futures all expire. And, according to our experience, trading action is going to be totally "weird" so, it's not wise to attempt to challenge the market on this day.

Until next time, good luck.

(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)