SmartReport® - ETF Picks & Pans

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ETF Picks: Member please login for exact Trigger, Stop, Target…etc.
GLD LQD, EWT, EWY, BBH, EWZ, IAU, WMH, MTK

ETF Pans: none

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Trading Essence: another amazing winning week

[Capital Essence NewsDesk] As we've said back on August 27 and August 31 "financial money might have been migrating into "selected" energy names", energy stocks added on to previous gains, up 1.29% for the day.  All of the "selected" energy names that featured in our September Exclusive Stock Pick broke out decidedly Friday with an average gain of 3%.

 

Overall, it was a very good day on the Street and so our "Swing Trader Bulletin".  The newly setup Concur Technologies Inc (CNQR) soared more than 5% today.  The majorities of the Portfolio holding are also doing very well with an average gain about 9% for the month.

 

Editor's note: if you like the excitement of TRIPLE DIGITS wins with a really FAST turnaround, you should check this out.

 

As we've predicted on our "Cubes Speculator Bulletin", the QQQQ tested key resistant at August 08's high @ $49.06 Friday.  The call option setup holds an amazing gain of +50%.   

Below are a couple of noticeable trades this week:

• 28/8/07: QQQUV (September 48 Put Option) +90%.
• 31/8/07: QQQQ October 48 Call Option (QQQJV) +50%

_______________________________________________________________

Want more investing ideas? Check out Capital Essence Newsletter Services - the "best-of-web" technical analysis.

技術前瞻：股市陷入區間震盪

Editor's Note: this is the free edition of Capital Essence's Market Outlook. To receive the daily edition everyday before market open, please subscribe. It's now available at a monthly rate.

這是Capital Essence對2007年8月31日 (週五) 的市場技術分析。

我們在昨天的前瞻分析中指出："在該指數 [道指] 突破8月8日高點的關鍵阻力位——約為13700.點——之前，空頭仍將佔據上風" 。由於伯南克將於今天在懷俄明州Jackson Hole召開的聯儲研討會上發表演講，投資者較為緊張，標普500指數和道指週四雙雙低開。儘管如此，收盤結果並不是太糟，科技股頂住跌勢，收於高點。納 斯達克100指數上漲9點，漲幅為0.46%。提到科技股，我們在"Cubes Speculator Bulletin"的文章中說過："QQQQ可能正在形成一個右半邊的看漲的倒頭肩形態…[上方的目標價格]約為49美元"——果然，納斯達克100 ETF(QQQQ)昨天一度漲至48.74美元。當日新建倉的看漲期權鎖定了30%的驚人收益。

正如我們在8月27日的前瞻分析中說過的那樣——"投入金融股的錢可能已經轉移到了一些能源股上"——昨天能源股繼續頂住大盤跌勢，最終高收。這一表現確認了我們"資金轉移"觀點。

圖中可以看出，美國證交所石油類股指數(XOI)成功考驗了07年看漲突破點的關鍵支撐位。目前，按正常估計該指數將重新考驗7月的高點——約為1522點。

來看主要股指：

上面是標普500指數的短期日線圖。該指數仍在長達六週的下跌趨勢線的阻力位下方運行。這當然不十分令人鼓舞。但是，只要空頭沒有將價格壓到8 月16日低點以下，股市應該不會有任何嚴重的問題。當前阻力位為8月8日高點——約為1504點，支撐位約為1410-1370點。

上面是道指的短期日線圖。和標普500指數相似，該指數同樣在長達六週的下跌趨勢線的阻力位置下方運行。從技術面上看，這也不十分令人鼓舞。然而，就像我們上面說的那樣，只要該指數能守住8月16日的低點，多頭就不必擔心。當前阻力位為8月8日低點——約13700點。

總結：從圖表上分析，目前仍屬於區間交易。

Caught in a Range

Editor's Note: this is the free edition of Capital Essence's Market Outlook. To receive the daily edition everyday before market open, please subscribe. It's now available at a monthly rate.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Friday August 31, 2007.

As discussed in the previous Market Outlook, "the bears continue to have the upper hand until or unless the [Dow] manages to trade above key resistant at August 08's high", both of the S&P 500 and blue-chips indexes stumble out of gate Thursday as traders got jitter ahead of Bernanke speech at the Fed symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming tomorrow.  The end result, however, wasn't that bad as tech stocks managed to buck the trend and finished higher with the NASDAQ-100 Index gained about 9 points or 0.46% for the day.  In speaking of tech stocks, we've opined on the "Cubes Speculator Bulletin" that "QQQQ might be building the right hand side of the bullish inverse Head-Shoulder pattern…[an upside target] is about $49" -  the NASDAQ-100 ETF (QQQQ) hit as high as $48.74 today.  The newly call options set up locked in an amazing gain of +30% for the day.

As we've said back on August 27, "financial money might have been migrating into "selected" energy names", energy stocks continue to buck the trend and finished higher for the day.  The action had confirmed our "migrating" notion.

(Click on image to enlarge)

As you can see, the Amex Oil Index (XOI) had successfully tested key support at the '07 bullish breakout point.  Right now, the normal expectation would be a retest of July' high, about 1522.

Let's take a look at the major index charts:

(Click on image to enlarge)

The Standard & Poors 500 Index (daily) chart above addresses a short-term time frame.  The board market index continues to trade below the six-week falling trend-line as resistant. This is, of course, not very encouraging.  However, until or unless, the bears manage to push prices to below August 16's low, the market shouldn't get into any serious trouble.  Resistant is at August 08's high, about 1504.  Support is about 1410-1370.

(Click on image to enlarge)

The Dow Jones Industrials Average (daily) chart above addresses a short-term time frame.  Similar to the S&P 500 Index, the blue-chips index is also trading below the six-week falling trend-line as resistant.  Technically speaking, this is not very encouraging.  Although, as noted above, the bulls should be able sleep tight as long as the index holds above key support at August 16's low.  Resistant is at August 08's high, about 13700.

Bottom line:  As far as the charts concern, trading range remains the name of the game.

Until next time, good luck.

Market Stucks in a Trading Range, “Cubes Speculator Bulletin” +30%

[Capital Essence NewsDesk] As we've noted in the previous Market Outlook, "despite Wednesday bullish reversal, the range-bound trading pattern remains intact", equity market closed mixed Thursday with both of the Dow and S&P 500 finished slightly lower as market digested Wednesday's huge gains.

As discussed yesterday and today morning on the "Cubes Speculator Bulletin", we've peeled off 50% of the QQQQ call options, which were grabbed @ early morning, into mid-day strength for a whooping gain of +30%. Once again, it's all about timing!

 

Editor's Note: below are just some trading ideas flow from our latest Headlines.

"Mid-day pull back" August 30, 2007 @ 11:43 AM

As expected, the "cubes" move higher and tested the area of the second upside target.

Breadth ain't very good looking, 1:1.5 positive on the NAZ. The market seems to be ready for a pullback.

We'll loose a leg [read: sell 50%] for now.

 

Once again, successful trading is all about the quack count. If the ducks align, hit 'em hard. When they don't, like this morning, we'll give you a ping so that you can take your profit and go play golf. Easy, even a 10 years old kid can do it.

 

The "Swing Trader Bulletin" also doing well as a majority of its holding continues to buck the trend and add on to the amazing unrealized gains. The Portfolio gain about +25% YTD.

_______________________________________________________________

Do you like the excitement of TRIPLE DIGITS wins with a really FAST turnaround? Check this out.

技術前瞻：股市仍未逃離險境

Editor's Note: this is the free edition of Capital Essence's Market Outlook. To receive the daily edition everyday before market open, please subscribe. It's now available at a monthly rate.

這是Capital Essence對2007年8月30日 (週四) 的市場技術分析。

債券評級機構穆迪(MCO)週三表示，美國主要投資銀行仍具有可支持其債務負擔的充足流動性，因此不會對他們的評級產生影響。受此激勵，股市在經歷了前一交易日的暴跌之後，於週三強力反彈。

我們在之前的"Cubes Speculator Bulletin"中曾指出："多頭表現勇猛，已將大盤推向了高點。波動幅度仍將很大…股市將一直保持上揚直至收盤。"週三，在股市從高點回落的時候，我們了結了納斯達克100指數EFT (QQQQ)看跌期權的全部倉位，共計獲利70%以上。我們為什麼選擇中止這筆交易呢？一般來講，如果支持最初判斷的種種理由出現動搖，就應該趕緊離場。

來看主要股指：

上面是標普500指數的短期日線圖。週二崩盤之後股市沒有跟著再跌。這可能是因為空頭在週二的大幅拋售之後已經筋疲力盡。儘管如此，在該指數突破8月8日高點的關鍵阻力位——約為1504點——之前，我們仍然沒有脫離危險。目前支撐位約為1410-1370點。

上面是道指的中期周線圖。和標普500指數類似，該指數昨天同樣在日線圖中形成了看漲的反轉實體。儘管如此，正像前面所說，在該指數突破8月8日高點的關鍵阻力位——約為13700點——之前，空頭仍將佔據上風。

總結：雖然週三股市出現了牛勢反轉，但仍保持區間波動的交易形態。事實上，我們預計該形態至少將持續到9月的第一個星期。

Range-Bound

Editor's Note: this is the free edition of Capital Essence's Market Outlook. To receive the daily edition everyday before market open, please subscribe. It's now available at a monthly rate.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Thursday August 30, 2007.

Upon the heels of Tuesday massive sell-off, stocks bounced back in noticeable fashion Wednesday as a sense that the world is still flooded with liquidity kicked in – Moody (MCO) said that leveraged loan commitments of major US investment banks do not have negative rating implications as liquidity remains sufficient.

As discussed on the previous "Cubes Speculator Bulletin" – "the bulls had put on the brave face and pushed the tape higher. Breadth remains strong …The tape will stay this way [read: positive] into the close" – we've peeled off the entire NASDAQ-100 ETF (QQQQ) downside puts into Wednesday mid-day weakness for a total gain of +70%. Why? Why did we choose to dance our way out of the trade? General speaking, successful trading is all about the quack count. If the ducks align, hit 'em hard. When they don't, take your money off the table.

Let's take a look at the major index charts:

(Click on image to enlarge)

The Standard & Poors 500 Index (daily) chart above addresses a short-term frame. No downside follow-through to Tuesday's breakdown. This could due to the fact that the bears could have exhausted themselves after yesterday massive sell-off. Although, we ain't out of the wood until or unless, the index trade above key resistant at August 08's high, about 1504. Support is about 1410-1370.

(Click on image to enlarge)

The Dow Jones Industrials Average (weekly) chart above addresses an intermediate-term frame. Similar to the S&P 500 Index, the blue-chips index had also printed a bullish reversal bar on the daily chart. Although, as noted above, the bears continue to have the upper hand until or unless the index manages to trade above key resistant at August 08's high, about 13700.

Bottom line: despite Wednesday bullish reversal, the range-bound trading pattern remains intact. As a matter of fact, we expect it to last until, at least, the first week of September.

Until next time, good luck.

Fast Turnaround

[Capital Essence NewsDesk] As discussed yesterday and today morning on the "Cubes Speculator Bulletin", we've peeled off the entire downside puts into Wednesday mid-day weakness for a total gain of +70% in less than 2 sessions. You see, it's all about timing!

Editor's Note: below are just some trading ideas flow from our latest Headlines.

"The bull play brave" @ 11:45 AM

The bulls had put on the brave face and pushed the tape higher.

Breadth remains strong throughout morning, 1: 1 positive on the NAZ and 1:5 positive on the big board.

The tape will stay this way [read: positive] into the close.

You see, successful trading is all about the quack count. If the ducks align, unleash the hounds. When they don't, like this morning, we'll give you a ping so that you can take your profit and go play golf. Easy, even a 10 years old kid can do it.

 

If you enjoy the excitement of TRIPLE DIGITS wins with a really FAST turnaround. You should check this out.

_______________________________________________________________

Want more investing ideas? Check out Capital Essence Newsletter Services - the "best-of-web" technical analysis.

技術前瞻：8月16日低點成關鍵支撐位

Editor's Note: this is the free edition of Capital Essence's Market Outlook. To receive the daily edition everyday before market open, please subscribe. It's now available at a monthly rate.

這是Capital Essence對2007年8月29日 (週三) 的市場技術分析。

在8月24日的前瞻分析中我們指出"銀行股形態收縮，正等待大行情出現。如果分析沒有錯誤，該指數的移動方向將是下行。" 果然，隨著投資銀行連續第二天降級，金融股週二形勢惡化。美林證券表示信貸市場收緊將影響花旗集團 (C)、貝爾斯登 (BSC) 和雷曼兄弟 (LEH)的利潤。而一則關於State Street (STT)擁有220億美元資產抵押商務本票的報道更是進一步加劇了金融股的下跌。

顯然，銀行股(BKX)正朝重新考驗8月16日低點——約為100點的位置邁進。我們說過，如果該指數跌破這一水平，金融股將再跌10% 。

事實上，週二的交易狀況和我們在之前在"Cubes Speculator Bulletin" 中預測的相當一致——"QQQQ 正在考驗第三個目標( 約為48.40美元)附近的阻力位。這是該股巨幅下跌前的最後一站。"——不出所料，納斯達克100指數EFT (QQQQ)在上週五漲至48.24美元之後形勢開始惡化，昨天跌幅超過2%。新建倉的QQQQ 9月份到期的看跌期權則獲得了超過90%的驚人未兌現利潤。

來看主要股指：

上面是標普500指數的短期日線圖。如前所料，該指數在考驗了長達4周的下跌趨勢線附近的阻力位之後翻身向下滑落，從而確認了我們"8月16日低點將被重新考驗"的觀點。當前的支撐位約為1410-1370.點。

上面是道指的中期周線圖。和標普500指數類似，該指數昨天同樣途中轉向。當前支撐位為8月16日的低點，約12800-12500點。

總結：和預料的一樣，股市正在努力重新考驗8月16日的低點。當前，我們無法得知考驗成功與否。但是，如果大盤沒能在這一位置吸引到買家，標普500指數2006年的看漲突破點——約1325點被考驗的可能性將增大。

Testing the low

Editor's Note: this is the free edition of Capital Essence's Market Outlook. To receive the daily edition everyday before market open, please subscribe. It's now available at a monthly rate.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Wednesday August 29, 2007.

We've noted in the August 24 Market Outlook that "bank stocks are coiling for a major move.  And if the textbook stands true, the direction of the move is to the downside" - financial stocks turned for the worse Tuesday amid a second straight day of investment bank downgrades. Merrill Lynch said that tighter credit markets will hurt the earnings of Citigroup (C), Bear Stearns (BSC), and Lehman Brothers (LEH).  The decline was exacerbated by a report that said State Street (STT) had exposure to about $22 billion of asset-backed commercial paper conduits.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Apparently, the BKX is heading for a retest of the August 16's low, about 100.  As mentioned, a failure to hold above this level will open the door for another 10% drop in the financial stocks.

As a matter of fact, Tuesday's trading action was pretty consistent with what we've predicted in our previous "Cubes Speculator Bulletin" – "QQQQ is testing resistant at the area of the third target, about $48.40. This is the last stop before a serious decline kicks in" – the NASDAQ 100 Index EFT (QQQQ), after hit as high as $48.24 last Friday, the stock turned for the worse and dropped more than 2% today.  The newly setup, QQQQ September Put Option is carried an amazing unrealized gain of more than 90%.

Let's take a look at the major index charts:

(Click on image to enlarge)

The Standard & Poors 500 Index (daily) chart above addresses a short-term frame.  As predicted, the index rolled over [to the downside] followed the test of resistant at the area of the four-week falling trendline and hence, confirmed our "August 16's low will be retested" notion.  Support is about 1410-1370.

(Click on image to enlarge)

The Dow Jones Industrials Average (weekly) chart above addresses an intermediate-term frame.  Similar to the S&P 500 Index, the blue-chips index also rolled over today.  Support is at August 16's low, about 12800-12500.

Bottom line: as expected, equity market is working on a retest of the August 16's low.  At this moment, it's impossible to know whether the test holds or not.  Although, a failure to attract buyers at that level will increase the probability for a test of the S&P '06 bullish breakout point, about 1325.

Until next time, good luck.

Market Tanks, Cubes Speculator Bulletin Soared

[Capital Essence NewsDesk] As we've predicted right here in our previous Market Outlook:

Bearish Bias (23/8/07): Prices could be heading for a retest of last week [August 16] low.

The "lows" will be retested (27/8/07): Monday's trading action suggested a negative bias into Tuesday trading session. Expect volatility to shoot up.

Stocks got hit hard Tuesday with the majority of major indices lost an average of 2.20% for the day. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) shot up 15%.

 

Editor's Note: below are just some trading ideas flow from our premium Headlines.

"Cubes Speculator Bulletin":

August 22, 2007 @ 9:30 PM - "QQQQ is testing resistant at the area of the third target; this is the last stop before a serious decline kicks in".

August 27, 2007 @ 7:45 PM - a first bounce into the [$xxx] area might be rejected and followed by a downside retracement into the [$xxx] area. We believe this is the area where the "true" bottom is formed.

The newly setup, QQQQ Put Option is carried an amazing unrealized gain of 90% in just 1 session.

 

Do you like the excitement of TRIPLE DIGITS wins with a really FAST turnaround? All you need to do is to spend about 10 minutes a day to read our precise and to-the-point reports to earn the money you deserve.

 

_______________________________________________________________

 

Want more investing ideas? Check out Capital Essence Newsletter Services - the "best-of-web" technical analysis.

技術前瞻：大盤可能下探近期低點

Editor's Note: this is the free edition of the Market Outlook. To receive the daily edition everyday before market open, please subscribe. It's now available at a monthly rate.

這是Capital Essence對2007年8月28日 (週二) 的市場技術分析。

不出所料，股市昨天在新一輪的獲利回吐中全面低收。股市全面疲軟的原因在於一份不利的房產報告。報告指出未售出的單戶住宅數量上漲了2.2%，達到385萬棟，相當於9.2個月的供應量，創下了自1991年10月以來的最高水平。這一數字表明房產板塊還遠沒有穩定下來。

僅從圖表中看，房產板塊正在三年的趨勢支撐位置遭遇買家不足的困難。這是不利的現象。請記住，如果該指數持續跌破上週低點，將表明2003年早些時候的看漲突破點——約為120點將再次受到考驗。該點距此相差50點或者30%。

來看主要股指：

上面是標普500指數的短期日線圖。在上週的前瞻分析中我們已經指出："反彈可能在1475點位置附近失去動能"。而當前的上漲趨勢剛好止步於長達4周的下跌趨勢線——約為1475點附近。我們說過，如果大盤突破該阻力位失敗，8月16日的低點將被重新考驗。

上面是道指的中期周線圖。和標普500指數類似，該指數昨天同樣考驗了長達4周的下跌趨勢線的阻力位。如果判斷沒有失誤，該指數將不得不跌落至8月16日低點附近以尋找買家。今天該指數跌破13200點將確認這一點。

總結：週一的交易狀況表明週二的盤面將趨於負面。預計波動將持續至週末。

Bearish bias

Editor's Note: this is the free edition of the Market Outlook. To receive the daily edition everyday before market open, please subscribe. It's now available at a monthly rate.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Tuesday August 28, 2007.

As predicted, equity market closed lower across the board amid a fresh round of profit taking. Contributed to the overall weaknesses was a troubling housing report. The unsold single-family homes inventory rose 2.2% to 3.85 million, which represents 9.2 months supply. That's the highest level since October 1991, suggesting that housing sector might be far from stabilizing.

(Click on image to enlarge)

As far as the chart concerns, the housing sector is having trouble finding buyers at the area of the three-year trend-line support, which is very bad. Bear in mind that a sustain decline to below last week's low indicates a retest of the early '03 bullish breakout point, around 120. And that is about 50 points or 30% from here.

Let's take a look at the major index charts:

(Click on image to enlarge)

The Standard & Poors 500 Index (daily) chart above addresses a short-term frame. We've opined right here in last week Market Outlook that "the rally is likely to run out of steam around the 1475 area" – see "The rally still has a leg albeit small one" August 23, 2007; the current advance appears to stall at the area of the four-week falling trendline, around 1475. As mentioned, a failure to take out this resistant indicates a retest of the August 16's low.

(Click on image to enlarge)

The Dow Jones Industrials Average (weekly) chart above addresses an intermediate-term frame. Similar to the S&P 500 Index, the blue-chips index also tested resistant at the area of the four-week falling trendline. Should the textbook stands true, the index will have to move down into the area of August 16's low to find buyers. A decline to below 13200 will confirm this.

Bottom line: Monday's trading action suggested a negative bias into Tuesday trading session. Expect volatility to shoot up into the long weekend.

Until next time, good luck.

Market Down, Swing-Trader Bulletin Up

[Capital Essence NewsDesk] as expected, stocks closed lower Monday as traders locked in profits.  Although, as usual, the "Swing-Trader Bulletin" continues to do incredibly well as its holdings continues to buck the major trend and add on to the attractive unrealized gains.  In short, they've all moving well on the expected direction.

Cisco Systems Inc (CSCO) bucked the overall trend, rose 1.24% to $31.11.  The stock posted a fourth consecutive winning session since added a couple days ago.  Airtran Holding (AAI) also added +1.27% for the day despite a rise in energy prices. 

The newly short setup, RBC Bearings Inc (ROLL) down more than 4% today on high volume.  This is also expected.

 

The "Swing-Trader Bulletin" portfolio gains almost 9% MTD and more than 25% YTD whereas the S&P 500 gains merely 4%.

______________________________________________________________

Want more investing ideas? Check out Capital Essence Newsletter Services - the "best-of-web" technical analysis.

A change in leadership

Editor's Note: this is the free edition of the Market Outlook. To receive the daily edition everyday before market open, please subscribe. It's now available at a monthly rate.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Monday August 27, 2007.

A debate that is starting to pick up some "steam" is whether or not the current market decline is a pause that refreshes or it's the beginning of something worse.  Both sides have merit.  Although, we are not going to get the answer or know which side is correct until all of this is over.  And, it might be just a bit too late, we've figured.  So let's see what the charts are saying.

(Click on image to enlarge)

As you can see, the financial stocks had led the market higher over the last couple of years.  Although long continuous trend going back to late 2002 has recently been broken (see chart below).

(Click on image to enlarge)

Technically speaking, the current slide had wrecked the long-term bullish outlook.  And as we've said back on July 18 "financial stocks had entered a secular bear market."

"So, where has the money gone?  They can't just evaporate into thin air" – you might be wondering.  Well, the best guess, at the moment, is that the financial money might have been migrating into "selected" energy names.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Despite the overall weakness, the Oil Service Stocks are sailing toward the July's high.  Of course, we don't know for sure how energy stocks are going to deal [or have to deal] with the subprime mortgage mess.  Although, from a long-term perspective, we continue to believe that energy will be a relative secular winner.

Let's take a look at major indices:

(Click on image to enlarge)

The Standard & Poors 500 Index (weekly) chart above addresses an intermediate-term frame.  Apparently, it doesn't take a genius to see that the long-term trend is still going up.

(Click on image to enlarge)

The Dow Jones Industrials Average (weekly) chart above addresses an intermediate-term frame.  Similar to the S&P 500 Index, the blue-chips also suggested that, from a long-term perspective, the path with least resistant is still to the upside.

Bottom line: as far as the charts concern, the current market slide is merely a change in leadership [read: sector rotation] rather than the beginning of the bear market.   Although if you're viewing the market through the S&P 500 lens, the rotation doesn't guarantee a "fresh" high and it is simply because energy makes up less than 10% of the S&P whereas financial makes up more than 20%.  With that said, if the financial sneezes, the S&P is more likely to catch a cold.

Until next time, good luck.

技術前瞻： 股市領導權易位？

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這是Capital Essence對2007年8月27日 (週一) 的市場技術分析。

一場關於當前股市的走低到底是重振前的停頓還是更糟狀況的開端的辯論正在升溫。雙方觀點各有道理。儘管如此，事情結束之前，我們都不會得到答案或者得知雙方孰對孰錯。先來看看圖表怎麼說。

圖中可以看出，金融股在過去幾年一直引領股市走高。但是始於2002年末的長期持續增長趨勢最近卻被打破(見下圖)。

技術面而言，銀行股當前的下滑破壞了長期看漲的前景。正如我們在7月18日說過的那樣："銀行股已經進入長期的熊市階段"。

"那麼投入的錢都到哪裡去了？不可能在空氣中蒸發了吧 "—— 你也許會有這樣的疑問。當前最好的猜測就是投入金融股的錢可能已經轉移到了一些能源股上。

雖然股市整體疲軟，但石油服務類股仍在向7月的高點邁進。當然，我們不能明確地瞭解到能源股將會如何應對次級抵押貸款市場的混亂，但是我們仍然相信能源股相對來說將是長期的贏家。

來看主要股指：

上面是標普500指數的中期周線圖。很顯然，該指數的長期走勢仍然是上行的。

上面是道指的中期周線圖。和標普500指數相似，該指數也表明：從長期立場來看，阻力最小的路徑仍然呈上升趨勢。

總結：僅從圖表中看，當前股市的走低僅僅是一次領導權的易位(即：板塊輪動)，並不是熊市的開始。但如果單從標 普500指數來看股市，此次領導權的易位並不能保證一次"新"高的出現，原因很簡單：能源股僅佔標普500指數不到10%的份額，而金融股卻佔過了 20%。如果金融股打噴嚏，標普500 指數很可能就會染上一場感冒。

Another Big Winning Week

[Capital Essence NewsDesk] as usual, the "Swing-Trader Bulletin" continues to do incredibly well as the majority of its holdings continue to add on to the attractive unrealized gains and all moving well on the expected direction.

· Energy Conversion Devices (ENER) gained more than 1% to 29.81.

· Airtran Holding (AAI) stay par for the day amid a rise in energy prices.

· Cadbury Schwepps (CSG) rose 1.79% for the day or 3.5% since profiled 2 days ago.

· Blue Nile (NILE) jumped almost 5% today and had achieved the first target within only 3 days. This is incredible.

· Cisco Systems Inc (CSCO) up 1.29% for the day.

· Vasco Data Security (VDSI) had overcome early weakness than close 2.29% higher. The stock had risen for 3 consecutive days since profiled. The position holds an amazing unrealized gain of almost 9%.

The "Swing-Trader Bulletin" had locked in a couple of nice gains this week, like a whopping +13% for Perry Ellis (PERY) in just 2 days. The portfolio gains more than 25% whereas the S&P 500 had gained a merely 4% YTD.

 

The "Cubes Speculator Bulletin" had also locked in a couple of incredibly gains this week:

· QQQIS (September 45 Call): +70%. Time: 3 days

· QQQIU (September 47 Call) +10.34%. Time: 1 day.

 

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Want more investing ideas? Check out Capital Essence Newsletter Services - the "best-of-web" technical analysis.

技術前瞻：大盤將再次考驗上週低點

Editor's Note: this is the free edition of the Market Outlook. To receive the daily edition everyday before market open, please subscribe. It's now available at a monthly rate.

這是Capital Essence對2007年8月24日 (週五) 的市場技術分析。

受美國銀行(BAC)決定向陷入困境的Countrywide Financial Corp. (CFC) 投資20億美元的消息刺激，週四上午股市大幅高開。起初，這一消息緩解了人們對信貸危機的巨大擔憂，但是之後形勢又變得糟糕起來，原因在於 Countrywide首席執行官安吉洛-莫茲羅(Angelo Mozilo)在接受CNBC採訪時表示：流動性問題仍然十分嚴重，住宅市場的低迷將導致經濟衰退。

從技術面上看，銀行股形態收縮，正等待大行情出現。如果分析沒有錯誤，該指數的移動方向將是下行。今天該指數如果跌破107點，這一點將得到確認。

來看主要股指：

上面是標普500指數的短期日線圖。在昨天的文章中我們說過："反彈可能會在1475點位置附近失去動能"。果然，今天該指數曾一度達到 1472點，但之後就出現反轉，最終以略微低收結束了當日交易。昨天任何SPRDs 標普500 ETF (SPY) 的看跌期權都將獲得至少30%的收益。

上面是道指的短期日線圖。總的來說，該指數可能還沒有足夠的動能挑戰長達四周的下跌趨勢線，因此當前買家相當猶豫。失去買方動力，下跌將是阻力最小的路徑。

總結：週四的交易狀況表明大盤可能正朝再次考驗上週低點的方向邁進，而這一過程可能最快從今天開始。

The “lows” will be retested

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Good Morning. This is Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Friday August 24, 2007.

As predicted, equity market moved significantly higher Thursday morning amid a report that Bank of America (BAC) made a $2.0 billion equity stake in beleaguered Countrywide Financial (CFC).  The news initially helped ease the worst of fears about a possible credit crunch.  However, market turned for the worse after Countrywide CEO Angelo Mozilo said in an interview on CNBC that there is still a tremendous liquidity problem and that he thinks the housing slump will lead the economy into a recession.

(Click on the image to enlarge)

Technically speaking, bank stocks are coiling for a major move.  And if the textbook stands true, the direction of the move is to the downside.  A decline to below 107 will confirm this.

Let's take a look at the major index charts:

(Click on the image to enlarge)

The Standard & Poors 500 Index (daily) chart above addresses a short-term frame.  We've opined right here in the previous Market Outlook that " the rally is likely to run out of steam around the 1475 area" the S&P 500 Index hit as high as 1472 Thursday before reversed and settled slightly lower for the day.  Any SPRDs S&P 500 ETF (SPY) put option traded could have made at least 30% intraday.

(Click on the image to enlarge)

The Dow Jones Industrials Average (daily) chart above addresses a short-term frame.   General speaking, the blue chips index might not have the power needed to "throw" itself into the area of the four-week falling trendline.  With that said, buyers are pretty hesitate at this level.  And without buying power, the path with least resistant is to the downside.

Bottom line: Thursday trading action suggested that prices could be heading for a retest of last week's low.  And the process could start as soon as tomorrow.

Market Down, Swing-Trader Bulletin Up

[Capital Essence NewsDesk] We've opined in our previous Market Outlook –see "The rally still has a leg albeit small one" August 23, 2007 - that

the upside reward could be limited to the four-week falling trendline. With that said, the rally still has a leg albeit small one

Chart 1.1 - as you can see, the bullish opening gap that propelled prices into the area of the four-week falling trendline resistant (see chart 1.2) was met with an aggressive wave of selling.

Chart 1.2 – as predicted, the S&P 500 Index closed lower followed the test of resistant at the four-week falling trend-line.

Despite the overall weakness, the "Swing-Trader Bulletin" continues to do incredibly well as a couple of the newly setup continues to show amazing strength against the tide. Vasco Data Security (VDSI) is holding a whopping gain of about 6% since profile 2 days ago. Blue Nile (NILE), RBC Bearings Inc (RBC), Cadbury Schwepps (CSG) …etc all hold attractive unrealized gains and are moving well on the expected direction.

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Want more investing ideas? Check out Capital Essence Newsletter Services - the "best-of-web" technical analysis.

技術前瞻：反彈仍會繼續但幅度有限

Editor's Note: this is the free edition of the Market Outlook. To receive the daily edition everyday before market open, please subscribe. It's now available at a monthly rate.

這是Capital Essence對2007年8月23日 (週四) 的市場技術分析。

受TD Ameritrade和E*Trade可能合併的消息鼓舞，週三股市高收。券商股指數(XBD)因此上漲了近1%。

技術面而言，除非該指數能突破200日均線，否則券商股仍無利可圖。同時請注意看跌的50日均線和200日均線的交匯處——即所謂的"死亡十字"。

來看主要股指

上面是標普500指數的短期日線圖。昨天該指數收於200日均線阻力位上方。這很不錯。儘管如此，除非該指數攻下下跌趨勢線的阻力位，否則預計此次反彈幅度不會太大。反彈可能會在1475點位置附近失去動能。

上面是道指的短期日線圖。儘管昨天道指收穫了100多點，但該指數仍在看跌的"頭肩"型態的頸線阻力位下方位置運行。這不是好現象。請同時注意位於下跌趨勢線附近的下一個阻力位置。

總結：顯然，大盤的上漲空間可能會局限在長達四周的下跌趨勢線之內。所以，反彈仍會繼續，但幅度不會太大。儘管如此，在貿然交易之前，選個好的介入點才是關鍵。

The rally still has a leg albeit small one

Editor's Note: this is the free edition of the Market Outlook. To receive the daily edition everyday before market open, please subscribe. It's now available at a monthly rate.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Thursday August 23, 2007.

Equity market closed higher Wednesday as investors cheered the TD Ameritrade and E*Trade merger news.  The broker/dealer index (XBD) gained almost 1% on the news.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Technically speaking, until or unless the index trades above the 200-day moving average, the broker/dealer stocks are dead money!  Also notice the bearish 50 and 200-day moving average crossover – this action/behavior is also known as "dead cross".

Let's take a look at the major index charts:

(Click on image to enlarge)

The Standard & Poors 500 Index (daily) chart above addresses a short-term frame.  The index closed above resistant at the 200-day moving average today.  This is good.  Although, until or unless it manages to take out resistant at the falling trendline we do not expect the rally to run very far, very fast.  With that said, the rally is likely to run out of steam around the 1475 area.

(Click on image to enlarge)

The Dow Jones Industrials Average (daily) chart above addresses a short-term frame.   Despite the 100 plus points gain today, the blue chips index continues to trade below the area of the bearish "Head-Shoulder" pattern's neckline as resistant.  This is not very good.  Please also notice the next level of resistant at the area of the falling trendline.

Bottom line: apparently, the upside reward could be limited to the four-week falling trendline.  With that said, the rally still has a leg albeit small one.   Although, before rushing out to make that trade, a "good" entry point is all that counts.

Market up 1%, Cubes Speculator Bulletin gained 70%

[Capital Essence NewsDesk] We've opined in our previous Market Outlook that "it worth notice that the financial stocks had refused to go down in the face of some bearish news … suggests these stocks are stabilizing… the urgency to sell had also been diminishing", equity market closed higher Wednesday with a majority of major indices gained an average 1% for the day.

Editor's Note: below are just some trading ideas flow from our latest Headlines.

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"Cubes Speculator Bulletin" - August 22, 2007 @ 11am

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· As we've opined in the previous update "highest price the "cubes" can hit is about $47.30-$47.50. And this is the area, where we'll take the rest of our profit"- and this is what we did. We've sold the last leg (25%) of the QQQIS (September 45 Call) position as the QQQQ entered the $47.50 zone for a +70% profit.

· The "cubes" is still consolidating around the $47.50 level as we type. Although, we think that it will have to, at least, close morning gap @ $47.20. Aggressive traders might try to get a position for a "short-term trade".

As a matter of fact, the QQQQ moved lower shortly after our morning update and hit as low as $47.27 before moved higher into the close. Any call option bought around this level should have made at least 10% intraday.

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"Swing-Trader Bulletin" Portfolio Update August 22, 2007 @ 12 PM

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· Perry Ellis (PERY) seems to be consolidating previous gains. We've sold the last leg this morning @ the trailing stop-loss point. This stock had brought us a total profit of 13% in as little as 2 sessions. This is incredible.

· The recent set up Vasco Data Security (VDSI) continues to move well on the expected direction, rose more than 3% this morning on good volume. The stock holds an amazing 6% unrealized gains in just 2 sessions.

· The newly set up(s) had also triggered and moved higher on heavy volume. This is, of course, bullish.

It worth notice that Blue Nile (NILE) profiled on Tuesday evening as a potential buy gained as much as 8% intraday before pulled back and settle slightly higher for the day.

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Want more investing ideas? Check out Capital Essence Newsletter Services - the "best-of-web" technical analysis.