技術前瞻：超跌反彈 突破阻力位是關鍵

這是Capital Essence對2007年7月31日(週二)的市場前瞻分析

在昨天的前瞻分析中我們已經指出：「Cubes Speculator的專有交易程序顯示，股市已經出現短期的超賣現象，理應出現一次反彈」。不出所料，週一，股市反彈地很漂亮，標普500指數上漲了14點還多，最終收於1474點，漲幅為1%。

此次上揚應歸功於摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley) (MS) 信用評級的一次意外調升。標準普爾之前將該公司信用等級由 “AA-/A-1+” 升至 “A+/A-1″。

從上圖中可以看出，摩根士丹利評級調升的消息使銀行指數(BKX)大漲1.62%，這是看漲的信號。因此，我們預計大盤不久將考驗111點水平的阻力位。當前支撐位約為105點。再強調一下，金融股一直以來都是股市的「晴雨表」，因此應當予以密切關注。

來看主要股指：

上面是標普500指數的短期日線圖。果然，在考驗了1460點支撐位後，該指數出現了一次漂亮的反彈。技術面而言，這是看漲的信號。預計大盤將考驗1490點左右的阻力位。當前支撐位約為1451點，阻力位約為1490點。

上面是道指的短期日線圖。和標普500指數類似，該指數也在2個月來的橫向趨勢線的支撐位置出現反彈。總的來說，在該指數進入13600點範圍之前，多頭不會遇到任何嚴重的阻力。

總結：週一的反彈很可能是期待已久的超跌反彈的開始。然而，如果此次反彈沒能突破關鍵阻力位，股市將變得非常難看，因此還是先盡情享受股市重整旗鼓的這段日子吧。

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.

Enjoy the Rally while it lasts

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Tuesday July 31, 2007.

We’ve noted right here in the previous Market Outlook that “as far as the “Cubes Speculator” proprietary trading program concerns, market had reached a short-term oversold and is due for a bounce” – see “As goes the bank, so goes the tape” July 30, 2007; equity market bounced nicely Monday with the S&P rose more than 14 points or 1% to finished at 1474.

Contributed to the bullishness was a surprise upgrade on Morgan Stanley’s (MS) credit rating, which was raised to “AA-/A-1+” from “A+/A-1″ at Standard & Poor’s.

As you can see, the Bank Index (BKX) gained 1.62% on the news. This is bullish. And we’re, therefore, expected to see a test of resistant at the 111 level sooner rather than later. Support is about 105. Once again, the financial stocks had been the “tells” for this bull market, hence, they should be on your trading radar.

Let’s take a look at the major index charts:

The Standard & Poors 500 Index (daily) chart above addresses a short-term frame. As expected, the board market index rebound nicely followed a test of support at the 1460 level. Technically speaking, this is bullish. Expect a test of resistant around the 1490 area. Support is about 1454. Resistant is about 1490.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (daily) chart above addresses a short-term frame. Similar to the S&P, the Dow had also bounced off support at the two-month lateral trendline. General speaking, the bulls shouldn’t get into any serious trouble until the index enters the 13600 zone. Support is about 13220. Resistant is about 13600.

Bottom line: more likely than not, Monday rebound is the beginning of the long awaited oversold bounce. And you might want to enjoy it while it last for the market could turn very ugly should the rally loose steam right below key resistant.

Until next time, good luck.

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.

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“Trading the Market” Bulletin for $ July 31, 2007.

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“Cubes Speculator” Bulletin for $ July 31, 2007.

Swing Trader Bulletin 每日精股推薦

Daily Stock pick for $ July 31, 2007

技術前瞻：密切關注金融板塊

這是Capital Essence 對2007年7月30日的市場前瞻分析。

毋庸贅言，上週對於股市來說無疑是具有挑戰性的一週。主要股指平均跌幅達5%，人們對於金融股崩潰的擔憂有增無減。

(Click here to enlarge)

從上圖可以看出，自我們在2007年7與18日的前瞻分析中對該板塊做了看跌討論以後，銀行股指數(BKX)累計跌幅約為9%。技術面而言，跌破上週低點意味著該板塊將進入長期的熊市。而這正是空頭所需要的。

來看主要股指：

(Click here to enlarge)

以上是標普500指數的中期周線圖。上週的跌勢使該指數又重新回到了1460點左右的移動平均線所在點位及今年春季向上突破時形成的支撐位。我們說過，繼上週拋售之後，整體技術前景轉糟。儘管如此，只要該指數能夠保持在當前水平之上，多頭將佔上風。

(Click here to enlarge)

上面是道指的中期周線圖。與標普500指數不同的是，道指仍然在2個月趨勢線的支撐位找到了支撐。這當然是鼓舞人心的。因為一旦大盤穩定下來，就可以引誘撿便宜的買家重新回到股市。支撐位約在132000-12700點，阻力位約為14000點。

和其他股指類似，上週對納指，繼而科技股投資者來說也是個災難。 雖然如此，如果投資者使用了我們的“Cubes Speculator”專有交易程序，不但能夠避免此次災難，還可以盈利。

(Click here to enlarge)

從上圖可以看出，7月24日的信號在7月26日這一天觸發並同時被確認。這是非常重要的，因為它極大地提高了此次交易的成功率。而且因此，納指在7 月27日週五的時候，連續第二個交易日暴跌，跌幅超過2%。 因此，如果按照這一系統交易，任何期權投資者上週都可能獲得三位數的收益。

那麼，接下來會如何呢？ 就該體系而言，股市已經出現了短期的超賣現象，理應出現一次反彈。而這可以當作一次拋售的機會。

總結：繼上週拋盤之後，關於“熊市”的說法出現了不少。當前，我們不可能知道熊市是否已經開始， 但密切關注金融板塊及其重要，因為正如之前曾經說過的那樣：“銀行股怎麼走， 股市就怎麼跟”。

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.

As goes the bank, so goes the tape

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Monday July 30, 2007.

Needless to say, last week was definitely a challenging week in the stock market with the major indices posted an average lost of 5% for the week amid a growing concern about the financial melt down.

(Click here to enlarge)

As you can see, the Bank Index (BKX) is about 9% lower since our bearish discussion on the sector a couple weeks ago – see “Watch-out for a correction” July 18, 2007. Technically speaking, a decline to below last week low indicates that the sector could be entering a secular bear market। And this is exactly what the bears need.

Let’s take a look at the major indices charts:

(Click here to enlarge)

The Standard & Poors 500 Index (weekly) chart above addresses an intermediate-term frame. Last week decline had bought the board market index back to the area of moving average and early spring bullish breakout support around 1460. As mentioned, the overall technical outlook had taken a turn for the worse after last week sell-off; though, the bulls shall prevail as long as the index holds above this level.

(Click here to enlarge)

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (weekly) chart above addresses an intermediate-term frame. Unlike the S&P, the blue-chips index still manages to hold support at the two-month trendline support. This is of course encouraging because it could help to lure bargain hunters back to the market once the index stabilizes. Support is about 13200-12700. Resistant is about 14000.

Similar to its peers, last week was also “disaster” for the NASDAQ and hence, tech investors. Although, they could have not only escaped this disaster but also made some money if they’ve used the simple (in term of user friendly) but very precise (in term of predicting power) “Cubes Speculator” proprietary trading program.

(Click here to enlarge)

As you can see from the above chart, the July 24 signal was triggered and confirmed on the same day – July 26, 2007. This is very important because it had drastically increased the probability success with the trade. And so, on Friday the July 27, the NASDAQ market plunged for the second straight session, down more than 2%. With that said, any option traders could have posted a triple digits gain to their portfolio last week if they were traded in favor of the system.

So what’s next? As far as this system concern, market had reached a short-term oversold and is due for a bounce, which can be taken as a selling opportunity।

Bottom line: there were a number of “bear market” chatters after last week’s sell-off. At this stage, it’s impossible to know whether the bear market has begun, but we think it’s important to pay attention to the financial sector because, as mentioned, “as goes the bank, so goes the tape”.

Until next time, good luck.

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.

Future (E-mini) Service 期貨預警服務

“Trading the Market” Bulletin for $ July 30, 2007।

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“Cubes Speculator” Bulletin for $ July 30, 2007.

Swing Trader Bulletin 每日精股推薦

Daily Stock pick for $ July 30, 2007

技術前瞻：暴跌之後是反彈

這是Capital Essence對2007年7月27日(週五)的市場前瞻分析。

週四股市暴跌，平均跌幅達2.0%。許多交易者，包括本人，都被拋賣的規模震驚了——道指盤中一度下跌449點(跌幅3.3%)，最後“神秘買家” 出現，收復了大約1.0%的失地。市場傳聞稱，美國政府——也就是所謂的“暴跌保護小組(Plunge Protection Team)”，由美國前總統裡根在1987年股崩之後成立——是昨天尾盤反彈的主力。如果真是這樣，那麼“黑色週五”也許能夠得以避免。

上面說過，週四的下跌規模令人震驚，儘管並非不可預知。下面是我們“Cubes Speculator Bulletin”在週二貼出的圖表之一：

(Click here to enlarge)

可以看出，我們的“Cubes Speculator”專有交易程序在暴跌發生前兩天已經針對納斯達克100指數ETF(QQQQ)發出了售出信號。如果你根據這個系統來交易，那麼昨天就可以在QQQQ期權交易中獲利幾百個百分點。

來看主要股指：

(Click here to enlarge)

上面是標普500指數的短期日線圖。可以看出，週四的交易在規模、市場基本面以及情緒等方面與2007年2月27日非常接近，然而這些超出了本專欄 的討論範疇。眼下我們能說的只是：週二暴跌之後，整體的技術面形勢已經惡化，但只要該指數能夠保持在1460點上方，多頭就仍將佔據上風。

(Click here to enlarge)

上面是道指的短期日線圖。與標普500指數相似，道指昨天也下跌了2%以上，儘管尚未跌破約為13200點的兩個月橫向支撐。我們說過，只要該指數能夠保持在這個水平之上，牛市就未遭破壞。短期支撐位約為13200點，短期阻力位約為14020點。

總結：上面說過，週四的狀況與2007年2月27日非常相似。如果歷史可以作為參考，那麼今天就可以看到反彈，緊隨其後則可能是築底或盤整時期，再往後……向上！簡而言之，不過是又一次股市歷史上“讓人嚇破膽”的暴跌而已，這一次同樣會過去的！

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe। It’s now available at a monthly rate.

“5ive” things you need to know

1. If the sharpest decline is taken place in the strongest bull market, then this is one heck of a “bull”

2. What went up, must goes down

3. This is a lot of money

4. A broken clock is right “twice a day”. Yen up, market down. Yen down, market up.

5. Subprime Surprise?

This too shall past

Editor’s Note: The following article was written by Michelle Mai of Capital Essence. It has been reproduced with permission for the benefit of the S.M.R community.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Friday July 27, 2007.

Equity market rolled over Thursday with an average lost of 2.0%. A lot of traders, including yours truly, got shocked by the magnitude of today sell-off – the blue-chips index (Dow Jones Industrial Index) was down as much as 449 points (-3.3%) before a “mysterious buyer” stepped in and recouped about 1.0%. There were chatters that the US government, a.k.a. “Plunge Protection Team”, founded by the former US president Ronald Reagan after the ’87 crash, was the master mind behind the late day bounce. If this was true, then we might be able to escape the “black Friday”.

As noted above, the magnitude of Thursday’s decline was shocking though it isn’t unpredictable. Below is one of the charts posted on our Tuesday “Cubes Speculator Bulletin”:

(Click here to enlarge)

As you can see, our “Cubes Speculator” proprietary trading program had flashed the sell signal on the NASDAQ-100 Index ETF (QQQQ) two days before the plunge. With that said, if you had traded in favor of this system, then you could have taken home a couple hundred percentage gains today on the QQQQ options.

Let’s take a look at the major indices:

(Click here to enlarge)

The Standard & Poors 500 Index (daily) chart above addresses a short-term frame. As you can see, Thursday trading action was very similar to that of the February 27, 2007 in terms of magnitude, market fundamental and sentiment. Although, it’s beyond the scope of this newsletter to discuss these terms. At this stage, all we can say is that the overall technical outlook had taken a turn for the worse after Thursday sell-off; though, the bulls shall prevail as long as the index holds above the 1460 level.

(Click here to enlarge)

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (daily) chart above addresses a short-term frame. Similar to the S&P 500, the blue-chips index also plunged more than 2% today though yet violated the two-month lateral support about 13200. As mentioned, the bull case remains intact as long as the index holds above this level. Short-term support is about 13200. Short-term resistant is about 14020.

Bottom line: as noted above, Thursday trading action was very similar to that of the February 27, 2007. If history is any guide, then we’d see a rebound tomorrow, which is likely to be followed by a basing or consolidation period, and then…up we go! In short, just like any other “heart breaking” decline in market history, this too shall past!

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe। It’s now available at a monthly rate.

“5ive” things you need to know

1. Bearish bets on Nasdaq hit high

2. JP Morgan Asset Management has become the largest hedge fund manager in the world

3. Easy comes, easy goes

4. Stuffs like this usually come out at market tops

5. No magic formula for market crashes?

Future (E-mini) Service 期貨預警服務

“Trading the Market” Bulletin for $ July 27, 2007.

Swing Trader Bulletin 每日精股推薦

Daily Swing List for $ July 27, 2007

QQQQ - Timer 預警服務

“Cubes Speculator” Bulletin for $ July 27, 2007.

The bull case remains intact

Editor’s Note: The following article was written by Michelle Mai of Capital Essence. It has been reproduced with permission for the benefit of the S.M.R community.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Thursday July 26, 2007.

We’ve opined right here in our previous Market Outlook that “bargain hunters could raid the Street as soon as tomorrow” – see “Snap Back Bounce” July 25, 2007; equity market closed higher across the board Wednesday. As a matter of fact, Wednesday trading action was also consistent with what we’ve predicted in our Tuesday evening “Cubes Speculator Bulletin” – “technically speaking the “cubes” had reached a short-tem oversold condition after Tuesday sell-off and we’re, therefore, expecting a rebound into the $49.60-80 area tomorrow.” The NASDAQ-100 Index ETF (QQQQ) opened in a positive tone Wednesday and hit as high as $49.67.

It worth notice that the financial stocks did pretty well in Wednesday rebound (see chart below).

As mentioned, the financial stocks have been the “tells” for as long as I can remember and hence, they should be on your trading radar. Again, as goes the bank, so goes the tape!

Let’s take a look at major indices:

The Standard & Poors 500 Index (daily) chart above addresses a short-term frame. As expected, the board market index rebound nicely followed the successful test of support around the 50-day moving average area. As mentioned, this is a very important zone and it should be on your radar. Short-term resistant is about 1555.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (daily) chart above addresses a short-term frame. Similar to the S&P 500, the blue-chips index also rebound nicely followed the test of support around the 50-day moving average area. Short-term support is about 13600. Short-term resistant is about 14020.

Bottom line: now that both of the “overbought correction” and “buy the dip” scenarios that we’ve discussed in the previous Market Outlooks had played out nicely, what’s next? Technically speaking, the upside should be given the benefit of the doubts. With that said, we shall hang on to the bullish stance as long as the majority of major indices hold above June’s low.

Until next time, good luck.

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.

技術前瞻：小心多頭的偷襲

這是Capital Essence對2007年7月25日(週三)的市場前瞻分析。

我們在昨天的前瞻分析中說過：“週一的交易狀況表明……週二的盤面可能偏弱”。結果，週二股市全面大跌。不出所料，小型股和科技股所受的打擊最為沉重。說到科技股，我們在昨天的“Cubes Speculator Bulletin” 中說過，“納斯達克100指數ETF(QQQQ)即將展開下一輪大行動，最早可能於明天開始……如果跌破49.64美元將破壞短期強勢的前景，從而招致進 一步的下跌。假如真的出現這種情形，預計它將考驗49美元支撐位。”週二，QQQQ破位，盤中最低跌至49.05美元。履約價為49美元的價外看跌期權當 天獲利高達100%。

同樣在我們預期範圍之內的是，金融股遭到猛烈拋售，週二下跌了近3%——我們曾經在幾天前對該板塊有過負面的評論。

可以看出，銀行指數(Bank Index)(BKX)輕鬆擊穿了109點支撐位。這是一個看跌信號，因為我們說過，金融板塊在標普500指數中佔有最大的權重，假如金融股下跌的話，標普500指數無疑也要跟著走低。中期支撐位約為105點。

來看主要股指：

上面是標普500指數的短期日線圖。該指數昨天下破1530點支撐位，進入了50天均線支撐區間。這是一個非常重要的水平，應該密切予以關注。短期阻力位約為1555點。

上面是道指的短期日線圖。週二暴跌之後，該指數進入了趨勢線所構成的支撐區間。記住，一旦跌破這個水平，特別是在量能放大擊穿13200點的情況下，將完成一個看跌的“牛市陷阱”型態。短期支撐位約為13600點，短期阻力位約為14020點。

總結：經過週二的大跌之後，標普500指數僅僅比新高低了2.5%，這簡直難以置信。如果歷史可以作為我們的指導，那麼撿便宜的買家最早將於今天偷襲華爾街。

Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.

QQQQ - Timer 預警服務

“Cubes Speculator” Bulletin for $ July 26, 2007.

Future (E-mini) Service 期貨預警服務

“Trading the Market” Bulletin for $ July 26, 2007.

Swing Trader Bulletin 每日精股推薦

Daily Swing List for $ July 26, 2007

技術前瞻：小心多頭的偷襲

這是Capital Essence對2007年7月25日(週三)的市場前瞻分析。

我們在昨天的前瞻分析中說過：“週一的交易狀況表明……週二的盤面可能偏弱”。結果，週二股市全面大跌。不出所料，小型股和科技股所受的打擊最為沉重。說到科技股，我們在昨天的“Cubes Speculator Bulletin” 中說過，“納斯達克100指數ETF(QQQQ)即將展開下一輪大行動，最早可能於明天開始……如果跌破49.64美元將破壞短期強勢的前景，從而招致進 一步的下跌。假如真的出現這種情形，預計它將考驗49美元支撐位。”週二，QQQQ破位，盤中最低跌至49.05美元。履約價為49美元的價外看跌期權當 天獲利高達100%。

同樣在我們預期範圍之內的是，金融股遭到猛烈拋售，週二下跌了近3%——我們曾經在幾天前對該板塊有過負面的評論。

可以看出，銀行指數(Bank Index)(BKX)輕鬆擊穿了109點支撐位。這是一個看跌信號，因為我們說過，金融板塊在標普500指數中佔有最大的權重，假如金融股下跌的話，標普500指數無疑也要跟著走低。中期支撐位約為105點。

來看主要股指：

上面是標普500指數的短期日線圖。該指數昨天下破1530點支撐位，進入了50天均線支撐區間。這是一個非常重要的水平，應該密切予以關注。短期阻力位約為1555點。

上面是道指的短期日線圖。週二暴跌之後，該指數進入了趨勢線所構成的支撐區間。記住，一旦跌破這個水平，特別是在量能放大擊穿13200點的情況下，將完成一個看跌的“牛市陷阱”型態。短期支撐位約為13600點，短期阻力位約為14020點。

總結：經過週二的大跌之後，標普500指數僅僅比新高低了2.5%，這簡直難以置信。如果歷史可以作為我們的指導，那麼撿便宜的買家最早將於今天偷襲華爾街。

Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.

Snap back Bounce

Editor’s Note: The following article was written by Michelle Mai of Capital Essence. It has been reproduced with permission for the benefit of the S.M.R community.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Wednesday July 25, 2007.

We’ve opined in our previous Market Outlook that “Monday’s trading action suggested…some sort of negative bias into Tuesday session” – see “Flat Tape” July 24, 2007; equity market closed significantly across the board Tuesday. As expected, small caps and tech stocks got hit hard. In speaking of tech, we’ve mentioned in our previous “Cubes Speculator Bulletin” that – “the “cubes” is ready for a next big move, which could take place as soon as tomorrow…a decline to below $49.64 shall wreck the short-term positive outlook and argue for lower prices. Should this happen, expect a test of short-term support at $49.” The NASDAQ-100 Index ETF (QQQQ) broke down and hit as low as $49.05 Tuesday. The out-of-the-money 49 put option gained as much as 100% intraday.

And also expected, the financial stocks sold off hard, lost almost 3% Tuesday, followed our negative comment on the sector a couple days ago – see “Watch out for a correction” July 18, 2007.

As you can see, the Bank Index (BKX) sliced through the 109 level like hot knife through butter. This is bearish because, as mentioned, since the financial group has the largest weighting in the S&P, the board market index is going to tank should this group took a dive. Immediate support is about 105.

Let’s take a look at major indices:

The Standard & Poors 500 Index (daily) chart above addresses a short-term frame. The board market index took out the short-term support at the 1530 level today and landed into the area of the 50-day moving average support. This is a very important level and it should be on your radar. Short-term resistant is about 1555.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (daily) chart above addresses a short-term frame. The blue-chips index had landed into the area of trendline support after Tuesday sell-off. Bear in mind that a break down below this level, especially if accompany by a decline to below the 13200 level shall complete the bearish “bull-trap” pattern. Short-term support is about 13600. Short-term resistant is about 14020.

Bottom line: It’s hard to believe that after Tuesday sell-off, the S&P is merely 2.5% off the fresh high. With that said, if history is our guide, bargain hunters could raid the Street as soon as tomorrow.

Until next time, good luck.

Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.

QQQQ - Timer 預警服務

“Cubes Speculator” Bulletin for $ July 25, 2007.

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“Trading the Market” Bulletin for $ July 25, 2007.

Swing Trader Bulletin 每日精股推薦

Daily Swing List for $ July 25, 2007

技術前瞻：調整繼續 盤面可能偏弱

這是Capital Essence對2007年7月24日(週二)的市場前瞻分析。

我們在昨天的前瞻分析中說過，“除非空頭能夠將標普500指數打壓至1506點以下，否則阻力最小的通道仍然是向上。”週一，股市不出意外以高收結束。

昨日焦點股：Amr Corporation(AMR)。我們在7月17日曾經作為“Swing Trader Bulletin”的持股介紹過。週一上漲近8%，之前高盛集團(Goldman Sachs)在該公司報告第二季度業績之後將其2007年預期盈利從每股2.35美元調升至2.75美元，股價目標相應地從22美元提高至26美元。

來看主要股指：

上面是標普500指數的短期日線圖。該指數繼續在上週五的交易區間內運行。迄今為止一切順利。短期支撐位約為1530點，短期阻力位約為1555點。

上面是道指的短期日線圖。與標普500指數相似，道指也在上週五的交易區間內運行。顯然，我們在前一交易日文章中討論過的“築底”由此開始。短期支撐位約為13800點，短期阻力位約為14020點。

總結：週一儘管高收，但交易狀況表明今天的盤面會有所偏弱。如果跌破上週五的低點將確認這一點。儘管如此，正如我們說過的，只要重要股指中大多數保持在6月低點之上，回調就可以買進。

Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.

Flat Tape

Editor’s Note: The following article was written by Michelle Mai of Capital Essence. It has been reproduced with permission for the benefit of the S.M.R community.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Tuesday July 24, 2007.

We’ve opined in our previous Market Outlook that “unless, the bears manage to take out [the S&P] 1506, the path with least resistant is still to the upside” – see “Overbought” July 23, 2007; equity market closed higher Monday.

Stock of the day: shares of Amr Corporation (AMR), profiled as a long holding in our “Swing Trader Bulletin” on July 17, jumped almost 8% Monday after Goldman Sachs raised the 2007 estimates to $2.75 from $2.35 following second quarter results. Target price also pushed to $26 from $22.

Let’s take a look at the major index charts:

The Standard & Poors 500 Index (daily) chart above addresses a short-term frame. The board market index continued to trade within last Friday’s trading range. So far, so good. Short-term support is about 1530. Short-term resistant is about 1555.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (daily) chart above addresses a short-term frame. Similar to the S&P 500 Index, the Dow also traded within last Friday’s wide trading range. Apparently, the “basing” scenario that we’ve discussed in the previous Market Outlook is started right here, right now. Short-term support is about 13800. Short-term resistant is about 14020.

Bottom line: despite the green tape, Monday’s trading action suggested a flat tape with some sort of negative bias into Tuesday session. A decline to below last Friday low will confirm this. Although, as mentioned, we’d buy this dip as long as the majority of major indices sustain support at the June’s low.

Until next time, good luck.

Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.

Swing Trader Bulletin 每日精股推薦

Daily Swing List for $ July 24, 2007

Future (E-mini) Service 期貨預警服務

“Trading the Market” Bulletin for $ July 24, 2007.

QQQQ - Timer 預警服務

“Cubes Speculator” Bulletin for $ July 24, 2007.

技術前瞻：超買嚴重需要修正

這是Capital Essence對2007年7月23日(週一)的技術前瞻分析。

不出所料，自從我們於7月18日對金融股作出負面評論之後，這個板塊連續三個交易日下跌。

大家可以看到，銀行指數(Bank Index)(BKX)正在考驗112點至109點的重要支撐位。雖然這個板塊仍然看跌，但我們並不認為上述支撐位會在一天之內就被擊穿。因此，除非媒體 頭條報道說每一個人都看跌，否則預計在這個水平會出現一定的買盤。以前說過，這個板塊過去四年來一直是市場的領先指標，所以應該密切加以關注。

昨日焦點股：Williams-Sonoma Inc.(WSM)自2007年6月以來就是我們“Swing Trader Bulletin”的核心持股，上週五大漲近9%，之前Cowen & Co.一位分析師向長期投資者推薦此股，理由是該公司的復甦仍在有條不紊地進行。

來看主要股指：

上面是標普500指數的中期週線圖。上週看漲突破之後，該指數在高點附近整固。除非空頭能夠將該指數重新打壓至上週低點1560點之下，否則阻力最小的通道仍然是向上。支撐位約為1506點至1490點，阻力位約為1600點。

上面是道指的中期週線圖。從相對強弱指數(RSI)來看，道指的超買程度很嚴重，理當進行修正，這可能是時間上的修正(橫向區間整固)，也可能是價 格上的修正(股價大幅下跌)。因此，只要該指數保持在13600點至13200點支撐位之上，我們將頭一個在回調時買進。阻力位約為15000點。

上面是納指的中期週線圖。受Google(GOOG)利空財報影響，上週五科技股遭到沉重打擊。事實上，上週五的交易狀況與我們在“Cubes Speculator Bulletin” 週四晚間內容中預計的非常吻合——“納斯達克100指數ETF(QQQQ)日線圖上形成了一個看跌的『十字星』型態，預計會有所走弱……如果跌破 50.31美元將確認這種分析，進而繼續考驗49.64美元，儘管在期權到期日價格可能被釘在50美元。”果然，上週五QQQQ努力挽回上午的弱勢——盤 中一度跌至49.74美元，最終收盤於50.05美元。一個來回的任何期權交易盤中可迅速獲利至少30%。

技術面而言，納指在過去幾週強勁上揚之後已經處在嚴重超買狀態。因此，上週的下跌可能是預期中時間更長盤整的開始。支撐位約為1635點，阻力位約為2001年高點(約2893點)。

總結：市場嚴重超買，因此理當進行修正，修正可能是時間上的，也可能是價格上的。然而，只要主要股指大多數能夠保持在6月低點的支撐位之上，我們就將逢低買進。

Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.

Overbought

Editor’s Note: The following article was written by Michelle Mai of Capital Essence. It has been reproduced with permission for the benefit of the S.M.R community.

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Monday July 23, 2007.

As expected, the financial stocks continued to slide for a third day in a row followed our negative comment on the sector – see “Watch out for a correction” July 18, 2007.

As you can see, the Bank Index (BKX) is testing the important support at the 112-109 level. While remains bearish on the sector, we do not expect this level to be taken in a single strike. With that said, unless there is a headline(s) that everyone recognizes as bearish, expect some sorts of buying support around this level. As mentioned, this sector has been the “tells” over the past four years and it should be on your trading radar.

Stock of the day: shares of Williams-Sonoma Inc. (WSM), profiled as a long holding in our “Swing Trader Bulletin” back in June ’07, jumped almost 9% last Friday, after a Cowen & Co. analyst recommended the shares to long-term buyers, saying the company’s turnaround is still on track.

Let’s take a look at the major index charts:

The Standard & Poors 500 Index (weekly) chart above addresses an intermediate-term frame. The board market index is consolidating near high after last week’s bullish breakout. Unless, the bears manage to take out last week’s low @ 1560, the path with least resistant is still to the upside. Support is around 1506-1490. Resistant is about 1600.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (weekly) chart above addresses an intermediate-term frame. As the Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) suggests the blue-chip index is pretty much overbought and is due for a correction which could be in time (i.e., consolidation or basing sideway) rather than in price (i.e., sharp decline in price). With that said, as long as the index sustains support at the 13600-13200 level, we’d be the first-in-line to buy any dips. Resistant is about 15000.

The NASDAQ Composite Index (weekly) chart above addresses an intermediate-term frame. Tech stocks got hit hard Friday amid Google’s (GOOG) bad earning report. As a matter of fact, Friday trading action was very consistent with what we’ve predicted in our Thursday evening “Cubes Speculator Bulletin” – “the “cubes” printed a bearish “doji” on the daily chart. Expect some weaknesses…a decline to below $50.31 will confirm this and a test of $49.64 is, therefore, expected. [Although] price could get pin @ $50 into option expiration day” the NASDAQ-100 Index ETF (QQQQ) managed to overcome early weakness – it hit as low as $49.74 – to close @ $50.05 Friday. Any round-trip option traded could have made a quick profit of at least 30% intraday.
Technically speaking, the index is pretty much overbought after the strong advance over the past couple weeks. With that said, last week decline could be the beginning of the long anticipated correction. Support is about 1635. Resistant is at the 2001 high – about 2893.

Bottom line: the market is pretty much overbought and hence, due for a correction, which is likely to be in time rather than in price. With that said, as long as the majority of major indices sustain support at the June’s low, we’d buy this dip.

Until next time, good luck.

Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.

Swing Trader Bulletin 每日精股推薦

Daily Swing List for $ July 23, 2007

“Cubes” Speculator Services - QQQQ預警服務

“Cubes Speculator Bulletin” for $ July 23, 2007.

Future (E-mini) Service 期貨預警服務

“Trading the Market” Bulletin for $ July 23, 2007.

July Option Expiration Day

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Friday July 20, 2007.

We’ve opined right here in our previous Market Outlook that “at this stage…the upside should be given the benefit of the doubt” – see “Upside should have the benefit of the doubt” July 19, 2007; equity market finished higher Thursday with the Dow finished just a hair above 14,000 for the first time ever amid positive earnings news. The tech-fueled NASDAQ Composite Index up 20.55 points to close at 2,720.04 – its highest level in over 6-1/2 years. In speaking of tech, we’ve noted in our previous “Cubes Speculator Bulletin” that “the bulls should have the benefit of the doubts walking into this Friday option expiration…We believe there should be enough buying power to generate a run to at least recent high @ $50.30” the NASDAQ-100 Index ETF (QQQQ) hit as high as $50.66 during Thursday session. Any call option traded could have made at least 20% intraday.

It worth notice that, financial stocks continued to slide for a second day in a row followed our negative comment on the sector – see “Watch out for a correction” July 18, 2007. While remains bearish on the sector, we expect the decline to slow down a bit tomorrow. Keep an eye on the Bank Index (BKX) 112-109 level (see chart below). As mentioned, a decline to below this level indicates that the financial stocks could be entering a secular bear market. And this is does not bode well for the board market.

Stock of the day: shares of Starbucks Corp. (SBUX), profiled in our “Swing Trader Bulletin” on Wednesday night July 18, jumped almost 5% Thursday after the world’s largest specialty-coffee retailer said that it will begin offering Starbucks-branded coffee-flavored chocolate products in the fall under a deal with Hershey Co (HSY).

Let’s take a look at the major index charts:

The Standard & Poors 500 Index (daily) chart above addresses a short-term frame. As expected, the board market index finished at a new high today followed a successful test of support at the 1540 level. Support is around 1540. Resistant is about 1600.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (daily) chart above addresses a short-term frame. We’ve noted here yesterday that “[Wednesday] decline happened within a context of a long-term bull trend, [and hence,] there is absolutely nothing to worry about” – see “Upside should have the benefit of the doubt” July 19, 2007; the Dow finished at a new all-time high today. This is, of course, bullish. Support is about 13690.

Bottom line: apparently, the S&P got pin at 1550 into tomorrow option expiration day.

Until next time, good luck.

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.

技術前瞻：新高不斷，何需擔憂

這是對2007年7月20日(週五)的市場前瞻分析。

By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence

我們在昨天的前瞻分析中說過：“目前……看漲應該是默認的立場。”週四，在利好財報的刺激下，股市高收，道指收盤略高於14,000點，為有史以來的頭一次。納指上漲了20.55點，收盤於2,720.04點——為六年半來的最高水平。說到科技股，我們在昨天的“Cubes Speculator Bulletin”文章中指出：“在週五期權到期日之前，多頭佔有默認看漲的便利……我們認為買方力量強大到足以將QQQQ至少推高到近期高點50.30 美元。”不出所料，週四交易中納斯達克100指數ETF(QQQQ)盤中最高達到50.66美元，買進任何看漲期權當天至少可獲利20%。

值得注意的是，金融股為連續第二個交易日下跌，之前我們於7月18日就這個板塊作出了負面的評論。我們仍然看空這個板塊，但預計今天下跌可能有所減弱。密切關注銀行指數(Bank Index)(BKX)的112點至109點水平(請看下圖)。我們說過，如果跌破這個位置，意味著金融股可能進入長期熊市，而這對整個市場都不是一個好兆頭。

　　

週四焦點股：星巴克(Starbucks Corp.)(SBUX)。我們在“Swing Trader Bulletin” 週三晚間對該股進行過分析，週四該股即大漲5%，之前該公司稱，根據它與好時(Hershey Co)(HSY)的協議，它將與今年秋季開始提供星巴克品牌的咖啡口味的巧克力產品。

來看主要股指：

　　

上面是標普500指數的短期日線圖。不出所料，該指數在成功考驗1540點支撐位之後，昨天收盤再創新高。眼下，支撐位約為1540點，阻力位約為1600點。

　　

上面是道指的短期日線圖。我們在昨天的文章中指出：“(週三)的下跌發生在一輪長期牛市的環境下，(因此)絕對沒有什麼可擔憂的。”結果，道指昨天果然再創歷史新高。這當然是看漲信號。目前，支撐位約為13690點。

總結：由於今天是期權到期日，預計標普500指數收盤將被釘在1550點。

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Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence’s “Market Outlook” newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It’s now available at a monthly rate.