Capital Essence Blog - 錢途集團: 2007

Friday, December 21, 2007

技術前瞻：短期技術面樂觀

Editor's note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence's CEM News on December 20, 2007. It's being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2007年12月21日 (週五) 的市場技術分析。

昨天大盤再現過山車走勢，最終小幅高收。道瓊斯工業平均指數漲幅約為0.3%，標普500指數高收0.5%。值得注意的是，在所有9個上漲板塊中，科技板塊連續第三個交易日充當了領漲的角色，而其中主要的動力源是甲骨文公司(ORCL)和蘋果公司(AAPL)。大家應該繼續堅持下去，看上去華爾街都看好這一波聖誕反彈行情。

科技板塊昨天的走勢同我們週三晚上在"Cubes Speculator Bulletin"中的預測十分吻合："QQQQ似乎在49.50美元的位置找到了支撐，預計明天將向上測試51美元的價位。"昨天，追蹤納斯達克100指數的QQQQ在出現一波短暫回調後受強勁買盤拉高，一度上摸50.96美元。昨天QQQQ的看漲期權交易當天收益率大約在50%左右。

圖1.1 納斯達克綜合指數(日線圖)

到目前為止，納指走勢非常不錯，後市可能面臨向上測試2700點附近的雙重阻力。支撐位在8月和11月低點附近，約2540點。我們提到過，如果納指跌破該支撐，將完全扭轉目前的看漲形態，空頭重新掌握控制權。

圖1.2 羅素2000指數(日線圖)

自從我們12月18日作出看漲評論後，羅素2000隨即上漲了2%左右。連續3連陽之後，預計股指很快將測試780-790附近的三重阻力位。在這個節骨眼上，只有股指連續跌破730點才有可能扭轉看漲局面並引發進一步下挫。

圖1.3 標普500指數(日線圖)

昨天標普的下探被買盤托住，收出一根長下影線，收盤小幅走高。接下來標普很有可能向上測試1490點附近的雙重阻力，不過不會再明天發生。短期支撐位在1435點左右。另外，明天是期權到期日，因此標普很有可能停在1460點不動。

圖1.4 道瓊斯工業平均指數(日線圖)

道指在200日均線下方形成了一個小的下降旗形。儘管這毫無疑問是一個看跌的形態，但我們並不準備馬上加入看空的陣營，除非股指跌至週二低點之下。因此，如果股指持續下跌至13092點之下，將為測試12700點附近的11月低點做好準備。

總結：從短期來看，技術面支持大盤進一步走高，形勢較為樂觀。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

注﹕Michelle Mai為Capital Essence(錢途集團)撰寫技術分析﹐並為包括市場趨勢在內的數份金融市場投資通訊的首席市場策略師。如欲每日盤前收到更多最新分析, 敬請訂閱。

Technical background supports further upside

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Friday December 21, 2007.

Stocks finished higher after another roller coaster day of trading with the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained about +0.3%, the S&P 500 Index rose nearly 0.5%. It worth noticing that of the nine sectors traded high, tech (NDX, +1.90%) continue to lead the market for the third straight session amid strength in Oracle (ORCL) and Apple (AAPL). You've gotta hold 'em – yes, it seems to us that Wall Street is holding firmly to the bullish ["Santa rally"] bet.

Speaking of tech, Thursday's trading action was very consistent to what we've predicted in our Wednesday evening "Cubes Speculator Bulletin": "QQQQ seemed to found support around the $49.50 level. Expect a test of the $51 level tomorrow." The NASDAQ 100 ETF (QQQQ) reached as high as $50.96 Thursday after the brief intraday pulled back was met with an aggressive wave of buying interest. Any call option traded could have earned about 50% intraday.

Chart 1.1: NASDAQ Composite Index (daily).

So far so good, the index traded like it wants to test the double resistant around the 2700 area. Support is at the area of August/November's low, about 2540. As mentioned, a failure to hold above this area will wreck the positive outlook and hence, put the bear into the driver side of the market.

Chart 1.2: Russell 2000 Index (daily).

The small caps index added about 2% immediately after our December 18 bullish comment. So far so good, it seems to us that the triple resistant around the 780-790 level will be tested sooner rather than later. At this juncture, only a sustain decline below the 730 level can wreck the bull case and argue for lower prices.

Chart 1.3: Standard & Poors 500 Index (daily).

The board market index traded a bit higher after a decline into the area of late November's bullish breakout gap was met with buyers. As mentioned, there is a high probability for a test of the double resistant around the 1490 level though this is not expected tomorrow. Short-term support is about 1435. By the way, tomorrow is the option expiration day and it seems to us that the index got pin at 1460.

Chart 1.4: Dow Jones Industrial Average (daily).

The blue-chips index printed a small bear flag right beneath the 200-day moving average. Although admittedly bearish looking, we wouldn't migrate to the bear's camp unless the index tumble below Tuesday's low. That said, a sustain decline below the 13092 level will set the stage for a test of November's low, about 12700.

In summary: from a short-term perspective, things look positive going forward with the technical background supports further upside.

(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Note: Michelle Mai writes technical analysis for Capital Essence and is the editor of Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" newsletter. To receive the daily edition, please subscribe. It's now available at a monthly rate.

Thursday, December 20, 2007

技術前瞻：繼續還是放棄？

Editor's note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence's CEM News on December 19, 2007. It's being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2007年12月20日 (週四) 的市場技術分析。

昨天大盤再次出現大幅波動，整個交易日出現幾次大漲大跌，最後收盤各股指漲跌不一。道瓊斯工業平均指數和標普500指數小幅低收，分別下跌0.19%和0.14%。然而科技股連續第二個交易日充當領漲角色，納斯達克綜合指數上漲大約5個點。

圖 1.1 納斯達克綜合指數(日線圖)

在12月12日的"Cubes Speculator Bulletin" 中我們曾提到："在12月11日的惡性拋盤之後，一個合理的推論是，在聯儲公告日出現如此大幅下挫對後市極為不利。這意味著下跌還可能持續一段時間。這種說法有些道理，不過金融市場的運作卻往往並非邏輯能夠推斷的。這樣看來，我們相信聖誕節期的反彈行情將很快出現。從目前的技術形態來看，大盤還可能出現進一步下跌2%的可能。因此我們最好先忍耐數日，等待大盤企穩再進入並持有一段時間。"我們從圖形上可以看到，納指在測試200日均線支撐的時候出現買盤湧入，說明後市還有進一步走高的要求。不過我們必須強調一點，如果納指未能守住11月低點的關鍵支撐，目前的看漲形態將被扭轉，出現進一步下探。目前， NASDAQ 100 ETF (QQQQ)的看跌期權已經跌至第二個下跌目標位，短短2天回報率高達50%。

圖 1.2 標普500指數(日線圖)

標普的圖形同我們昨天的分析變化不大，在短期支撐附近橫向運行。正如我們提到的，標普很有可能面臨向上測試1490附近的雙重阻力位。在目前的形態下，只有跌破昨日低點1435點，才可能完全破壞短期看漲的技術形態，並進一步向下測試8月和11月低點附近的關鍵支撐，大致在1400點。

圖 1.3 道瓊斯工業平均指數(日線圖)

昨天道指繼續在200日均線阻力之下運行。這對後市是不利的。我們曾提到，在股指最終站上此阻力之前，技術面依然不容樂觀。阻力位在13340點。支撐位在11月低點附近的12700點。

總結：繼續還是放棄？"聖誕反彈"可能會繼續升溫，畢竟距離2008年只有5個交易日了。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

Fold ’em or hold ‘em?

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Thursday December 20, 2007.

Stocks finished mixed after another volatile session that saw several sizable gains and declines during the day, with both of the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 Index closed slightly below the zero line, down -0.19% and -0.14% respectively. Tech stocks, however, continue to lead the market for the second straight session with the NASDAQ Composite Index gained about 5 points.

Chart 1.1: NASDAQ Composite Index (daily).

We've noted in our December 12 "Cubes Speculator Bulletin" that: "the logical assumption after December 11 big sell-off is that if the market falls so much on the FED day, then this is a bad sign. It suggested that this bear is going to have some legs. We see the logic there, but financial markets operate beyond any logical beliefs. Consistently with these thoughts, we believe that Santa rally would resume shortly. The best bet would be waiting for market to stabilize a bit, [current technical conditions support further downside with an additional downside risk about 2%], then buy and hold for a couple of days." As you can see, the NASDAQ traded like it wants to move higher after the test of support around the 200-day moving average was met with buyers. Although we must stress that a failure to hold above key support at the area of November's low shall wreck the bullish assumption and hence, argue for lower prices.

Just so that you know, the recent NASDAQ 100 ETF (QQQQ) put option setup achieved the second downside target in just 2 days with a nice 50% gain.

Chart 1.2: Standard & Poors 500 Index (daily).

Not much had been changed since last update, the index basing sideway around the area of short-term support. As mentioned, there is a high probability for a test of the double resistant around the 1490 level. At this juncture, only a decline below Tuesday's low of 1435 can wreck the short-term positive outlook and hence, argue for a test of key support around the August/November's low, about 1400.

Chart 1.3: Dow Jones Industrial Average (daily).

The blue-chips index continues to trade below the 200-day moving average as resistant. This is bearish. As mentioned, until the index walks above this level, things remain poor looking forward. Resistant is about 13340. Support is around the area of November's low, about 12700.

In summary: "fold 'em or hold 'em?" – better than Las Vegas, the "Santa rally" pot is a lot bigger [than before] because, after all, there are only 5 trading days left before the calendar turns to 2008.

(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Wednesday, December 19, 2007

技術前瞻：期待聖誕老人的禮物

Editor's note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence's CEM News on December 18, 2007. It's being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2007年12月19日 (週三) 的市場技術分析。

昨天大盤經歷一輪過山車行情後出現上漲，高盛和百思買強勁的盈利利好抵消了市場對信貸市場危機的憂慮。昨天道瓊斯工業平均指數上漲0.5%，午盤曾一度下跌75點，最高漲幅超過100點。標普500指數高收0.6%。納斯達克綜合指數上漲0.8%。昨天小型股成了領漲大盤的主力，羅素2000指數漲幅超過2%。

圖 1.1 羅素2000指數(日線圖)

昨天羅素2000指數成功測試8月和11月低點形成的支撐，這是十分有利的。今日如果股指繼續上揚，將增加向上測試11月高點的可能，大約在790點。在目前的關鍵位置，只有股指跌破730點才會導致圖形破位，並引發進一步下跌。

圖1.2 標普500指數(日線圖)

昨天股指成功測試1430點附近的11月末跳空區域支撐。從技術上講，昨天的價格走勢為向上測試1490-1500點附近的雙重阻力位作好了準備。支撐區域在1430-1400。

圖1.3 道瓊斯工業平均指數(日線圖)

我們應該注意到，儘管道指昨天大幅拉高，但依然低於200日均線，形勢並非特別有利。在這樣的情況下，除非多頭成功佔領該均線，否則後市機會不大。阻力位在13340點附近。支撐位在11月低點12700點附近。

總結：總的來說，股市出現了一些好的跡象。我們認為股市不會再出現大的深跌，一貫的聖誕節期反彈依然值得期待。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

Santa rally is still in full swing

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Wednesday December 19, 2007.

Stocks finished higher Tuesday, a roller coaster session that saw strong earnings from Goldman Sachs and Best Buy offset by the ongoing concerns about credit market crisis. For the day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.5% - the blue-chip index was down about -75 points at its low of the day and up more than +100 points at its peak. The broader S&P 500 Index added 0.6%. The tech-rich NASDAQ Composite gained 0.8%. Small caps led Tuesday advance with the Russell 2000 Index rose more than 2%.

Chart 1.1: Russell 2000 Index (daily).

Key support at the August/November's low was tested and held. This is bullish. An upside follow-through tomorrow will increase the probability for a test of December's high, about 790. At this juncture, only a sustain decline below the 730 level can wreck the positive development and argue for lower prices.

Chart 1.2: Standard & Poors 500 Index (daily).

The index tested and held above the late November's gap support around the 1430 area. Technically speaking, Tuesday's trading action had set the stage for a test of the double resistant around the 1490-1500 level. Support is around 1430-1400.

Chart 1.3: Dow Jones Industrial Average (daily).

It should be noted that despite Tuesday's flip, the blue-chips index is still traded below the 200-day moving average. This doesn't look very good. With that said, until the bulls manage to take out this level, things remain poor looking forward. Resistant is about 13340. Support is around the area of November's low, about 12700.

In summary: general speaking, there were some sort of positive development in equities. While we are not looking for a big, bold bottom, we'd say that the tradition Santa rally is still in full swing.

(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Tuesday, December 18, 2007

技術前瞻：繼續觀望後市

Editor's note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence's CEM News on December 17, 2007. It's being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2007年12月18日 (週二) 的市場技術分析。

在昨天的市場前瞻中，我們曾提到："美元和地產可能在年底繼續出現反彈，不過美元的走高將對股市形成壓製作用。"週一，受通脹壓力上升和經濟成長預期下降的打壓，股市在上周下跌的基礎上再度下挫。昨天道瓊斯工業平均指數下跌1.3%，標普500指數跌幅大約1.5%，納斯達克綜合指數下挫 2.3%。總的來說昨天是華爾街陰霾重重的一天。不過美元的繼續反彈動力給我們留下了深刻印象，儘管經濟報告令人失望，昨天美元兌歐元匯率繼續上升。昨天盤前發佈的11月份New York Empire State Index為10.3。指數大於零就意味著經濟增長，但是11月份的數值大大低於前一個月的27.7以及此前20.0的普遍預測值。同樣我們應該注意的是，儘管全美房屋建築商協會披露房地產商情緒指數連續第三個月創出新低，房地產板塊成功守住領地，上漲0.17%。

圖1.1 PHLX房地產指數(日線圖)

我們曾提到，只要指數守住133-140這一陣地，空頭就不會有太大機會。同時，如果指數持續走高並突破156點，將大大曾加向上測試前期向下突破位阻力的機會，大致在190點附近。

圖1.2 標普500指數(日線圖)

週一的下跌使得股指跌破1460點的短期支撐位，這對後市是非常不利的。從技術上講，未來的走勢可能非常糟糕。今日如果股指繼續下跌，將明確後市重新測試1400-1370附近區域關鍵支撐的走勢。上方阻力位在1500附近。

圖1.3 道瓊斯工業平均指數(日線圖)

週一的下跌使得道指跌破200日均線，這是非常致命的。如果今天繼續下跌，道指將面臨重新測試11月低點的關鍵支撐區域，大約在12700點。阻力位在13500點附近。

總結：自從我們11月初作出看漲評論以來，美元走勢十分強勁。重申一下，儘管我們無法預測未來12個月美元能走到什麼位置，但是我們可以肯定年底之前反彈還將持續。而且，正如上面提到的，現在房地產的做空力量已經過度膨脹，市場情緒非常低落，因此未來數週一旦出現任何利好消息，地產有可能出現大幅反彈。總體股市方面，週一的價格走勢說明賣壓非常強大，我們應該暫時持幣觀望，耐心等待底部出現。總而言之，我們對總體股市繼續保持警惕，同時在年底把注意力放在美元和一些地產股上。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

Remain cautious on equities

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Tuesday December 18, 2007.

We've offered in the previous Market Outlook that: "US dollar and housing sector could continue to rally into year-end though a higher Dollar could restrain equities from going higher." Monday, stocks stumble out of gate, building on the previous week's declines, amid rising inflationary pressures and slower growth prospects. For the day, The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.3%. The broader S&P 500 Index lost about 1.5%. The tech-rich NASDAQ Composite lost 2.3%. Overall it was a very bad day on the Street. We were, however, very impressed with the Dollar's ability to rally, the greenback gained ground against the euro, in the face of disappointed economic reports. Before Monday opening bell, it was reported that the New York Empire State Index showed a reading of 10.3 for November. While a number above zero reflects growth, the reading was well below the prior month's reading of 27.7 and the consensus estimate of 20.0.

It also worth noticing that, the housing sector managed to finish above the zero line, up +0.17%, despite the National Association of Home Builders' report that showed homebuilder sentiment remained at a record low for the third straight month.

Chart 1.1: PHLX Housing Sector Index (daily).

As discussed, the bears will not have any cases as long as the index holds above the 133-140 level. Further, a sustain breakout above the 156 level will increase the probability for a test of resistant at previous breakdown point, around 190.

Chart 1.2: Standard & Poors 500 Index (daily).

Monday decline had pushed the index below the short-term support at the 1460 level. This is bearish. Technically speaking, things look very poor going forward. A downside follow-through tomorrow will confirm a retest of key support around the 1400-1370 area. Resistant is about 1500.

Chart 1.3: Dow Jones Industrial (daily).

It should be noted that Monday's flop left the Dow below the 200-day moving average. This is bearish. A downside follow-through tomorrow will confirm a retest of key support at the area of November's low, about 12700. Resistant is about 13500.

In summary: the U.S. dollar is doing a very good job since our positive comment on early December. To reiterate, we don't know how high would the dollar be twelve month from now, but we do know that the greenback could continue to rally into year-end. Further, as noted above, the "short housing" trade has become overly crowded and sentiment has grown so negative that the group will likely react well to any good news that comes out over the next few weeks. Regarding equity market, Monday's trading action is indicative of urgent selling, which prompt us to stay on the sideline while waiting for a bottom. That's said, while remain cautious on equities, we've loaded the truck with some greenback and selected housing names for a year-end trade.

(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Monday, December 17, 2007

技術前瞻：美元、地產年底可能繼續反彈

Editor's note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence's CEM News on December 15, 2007. It's being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2007年12月17日 (週一) 的市場技術分析。

上週五，大盤以下跌宣告了一周慘淡行情的終結，主要的利空消息是政府公佈的CPI數據顯示美國經濟面臨更高的通脹壓力，投資者擔心即便美國經濟景氣繼續低落，聯儲連續降息的政策也難以持續下去。整個上周，道指下跌2%，標普500下跌2.4%，納斯達克綜合指數下挫2.6%。

毫無疑問，美元是通脹壓力持續升溫的受益者。從長期來看，這對總體經濟是有利的。自從我們12月初作出看漲評論以來，過去兩周美元出現強勁反彈。至於目前的"反彈能否持續下去"，我們可以來看看下面的圖形：

圖 1.1 美元指數(日線圖)

從技術上講，美元上周突破50日均線的強勁反彈為下一步測試80附近的雙重阻力位做好了準備，這同我們前期的預測十分吻合。不過我們應該牢記，除非美元能夠成功攻克該阻力，否則目前的反彈就仍只是長期跌勢下的短期技術性反彈。支撐位在74附近。

現在下一個問題來了：誰將是美元升值受益最大的板塊？我們來看看下一張圖：

圖 1.2 美元指數與PHLX房地產指數對比圖(日線圖)

從圖上可以看到，房地產和美元的走勢高度相關。結合我們上面對美元的看漲分析，我們預計房地產板塊也將出現回暖。我們來看看技術面是否支持這一設想。

圖 1.3 PHLX房地產指數(日線圖)

總的來看，房地產指數的技術面相當疲軟。不過，只要指數守住133.65這一位置，空頭就不會有太大的機會。投資者應該密切關注指數在156點附近的動向，如果指數持續上漲至該阻力之上，將形成一個完整的"頭肩頂"形態，從而增加向上測試190附近的雙重阻力位的可能性。

我們再來看看主要股指的情況：

圖 1.4 標普500指數(日線圖)

從上圖我們可以看到，2007年對於多方來說並不是一個好年頭。從技術上講，除非有特殊情況，目前交易區間內反彈的走勢將得以繼續。

圖1.5 道瓊斯工業平均指數(日線圖)

同標普類似，道指目前也在一個區間內運行，同時形成了不少"頭肩頂"的形態。不過，在指數最終突破14200-12700的交易區間之前，作出任何大膽預測都是愚蠢之舉。

總結：往前看，美元和地產將在年底繼續反彈。同時，數月前我們曾在本欄提到，美元升值將對股市產生壓製作用。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

US dollar and housing could rally into year-end

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Monday December 17, 2007.

Stocks tanked Friday, ending a tough week on a down note, after the government released reports showing higher inflationary pressures and hence raised concerns that the Federal Reserve won't be able to keep cutting interest rates, even as the economy continues to struggle. For the week, the Dow lost 2%, S&P 500 lost 2.4% and the tech-rich NASDAQ composite lost 2.6%.

Unsurprisingly, the US Dollar is the beneficiary of the ongoing inflation worries. This is bullish for the overall economy from a long-term view. Though after the sharp recovery rally over the past two weeks, dollar has had a pretty nice ride since our bullish comment on the currency on early December, it'd be good to know "whether this rally will continue or not" and for that we have a simple chart to follow:

Chart 1.1: US Dollar Index (daily).

Technically speaking, last week's bullish breakout above the 50-day moving average had set the stage for a test of the double resistant around the 80 level, which is very consistent with our previous prediction. Although, bear in mind that unless the dollar manages to take out this resistant, the attempt rally is simply a short-term technical rebound within a context of a long-term downtrend. Support is about 74.

Here comes the next question, which sector will be benefit from a strong dollar? Let's take a look at the following chart:

Chart 1.2: US Dollar Index versus PHLX Housing Sector Index (daily).

As you can see, housing is highly correlated to the dollar. This couple with the above bullish analysis suggests that the housing is due for a recovery rally. Let's see whether the technical background supports this assumption.

Chart 1.3: PHLX Housing Sector Index (daily).

General speaking, the technical background is pretty weak though the bears will not have any cases as long as the index holds above the 133.65 level. It's important that traders keep the 156 level on their trading radar for a sustain advance above this level will complete the bullish head-shoulder pattern and hence increases the probability for a test of the double resistant, around the 190 level.

Now, let's take a look at the major indices:

Chart 1.4: Standard & Poors 500 Index (daily).

As you can see from the above chart, 2007 is not a good year for "buy-and-hold" folks. Technically speaking, until proven otherwise the range bounce scenario remains intact.

Chart 1.5: Dow Jones Industrial (daily).

Similar to the S&P, the blue-chips index is also stuck in a range. There are quite a numbers of "head-shoulder top" chatters out there. However, until the index breakout from the 14200-12700 trading range, I would be a fool if I tell you anything more than this.

In summary: looking ahead, US dollar and housing sector could continue to rally into year-end. And, as we've discussed right here a couple months ago, a higher Dollar could restrain equities from going higher.

(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Friday, December 14, 2007

技術前瞻：大盤即將測試一周高點

Editor's note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence's CEM News on December 13, 2007. It's being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2007年12月14日 (週五) 的市場技術分析。

昨天，盤前公佈的生產者價格指數大幅上漲，引發了市場對通脹的擔憂，結果大盤整個交易日一直萎靡不振，直到接近收盤才略微回暖，各主要股指漲跌互現。道瓊斯工業平均指數上漲0.3%，標普500指數上漲0.12%，納斯達克綜合指數下跌0.10%。

值得注意的是，受美元回升的影響，昨天黃金現貨價格大挫16點。昨天美元指數上漲0.53%。

圖 1.1 黃金指數(日線圖)

昨天黃金指數測試兩個月來下降趨勢線阻力位時遭遇強勁賣壓，果斷掉頭向下。短期支撐位在775點，很有可能將面臨重新測試並被洞穿。我們應該謹記，在該支撐之下的持續下跌將激發強勁下跌動能，有可能將指數拉回720點附近的關鍵支撐區域。我們必須強調，如果指數跌至該關鍵位置，只有後市持續上揚至 845點才能夠逆轉看跌的態勢，並獲得進一步走高的可能。

圖 1.2 標準普爾500指數(日線圖)

標普繼續圍繞200日均線上下振蕩。在總體技術面疲軟的情況下，今天的價格走勢是非常令人激動的。不過，在多頭最終攻克大約在1525點的兩個月下降趨勢線阻力前，我們不宜貿然採取行動。支撐位大約在1360點。

圖 1.3 道瓊斯工業平均指數(日線圖)

同前一天一樣，昨天道指再度向下測試200日均線並維持在均線上方。儘管昨天的價格走勢非常有利，但是在多頭成功攻佔位於13780點左右的短期支撐之前，市場信心難以迅速恢復。支撐位在200日均線處，大約13300點左右。正如我們提到過的，股指能否守住該支撐對後市非常重要，因為只要跌破 200日均線必然觸發大量止損，從而產生強勁下跌動能，進一步將股指送回11月低點附近。

總結：在總體技術面依然十分疲軟的情況下，昨天的行情從短期來看是有利後市的。這意味著大盤即將對本周高點作出測試，很可能在今天就會發生。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

Market is due for a test of weekly’s high

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Friday December 14, 2007.

Stocks staged a late-day recovery Thursday, ending mixed after a tough session amid inflation worries after an early report showed a big jump in wholesale prices. For the day, the Dow Jones industrial average added 0.3%. The broader S&P 500 index finished up 0.12%. The tech-rich NASDAQ composite lost 0.10%.

It worth noticing that spot gold plunged almost 16 points driven by a higher greenback. The US dollar Index gained 0.53% today.

Chart 1.1: Gold Index (daily chart).

The yellow metal broke down decisively after the test of resistant at the two-month falling trend-line was met with an aggressive wave of selling interest. More likely than not, short-term support around the 775 level will be retested and might be exceeded. Bear in mind that a sustain decline below this level will trigger a strong downside momentum that has the potential to push prices back into the area of key support, around the 720 level. As always, we must stress that, at this juncture, only a sustain advance above 845 can wreck the bearish outlook and argue for higher prices.

Chart 1.2: Standard & Poors 500 Index (daily chart).

The index continues to base around the area of 200-day moving average. Given the shaky technical background, today's trading action is pretty encouraging. However, we ain't out of the wood until the bulls manage to take out resistant at the two-month falling trendline, about 1525. Support is about 1360.

Chart 1.3: Dow Jones Industrial (daily chart).

Once again, the 200-day moving average was retested and held. While today's trading action is pretty bullish, the bears still have benefit of the doubts until the bulls manage to take out the short-term resistant, about 13780. Support is at the 200-day moving average, about 13300-ish. As mentioned, it's very important that the index hangs on to this support for a decline below it will trigger all sorts of stops, leading to a strong downside momentum that has the potential to push prices back into November's low.

In summary: while the technical background is still very weak, Thursday's trading action has a short-term bullish implication. It suggests that the market is due for a test of weekly's high, which could take place as soon as tomorrow.

(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)

Thursday, December 13, 2007

技術前瞻：技術面非常疲軟

Editor's note: this column was originally published on Capital Essence's CEM News on December 12, 2007. It's being republished as a bonus for the loyal readers. For more information about subscribing to CEM News, please click here.

這是Capital Essence對2007年12月13日 (週四) 的市場技術分析。

昨天我們曾說："最近幾年市場對聯儲貨幣政策的反應通常會在數天內出現反覆，也就是所謂的『聯儲效應』。因此，週二的大跌應該不會是年底戲劇的最後一幕。由此我們相信市場將很快出現反彈。"週三大盤出現大幅跳空開盤，道指上午最高漲幅接近300點。但是開盤的反彈很快就在金融板塊利空消息的打壓下一路下挫。最終收盤道指上漲 41點，標普500上漲18點，納斯達克綜合指數高收9點。

在8個上漲板塊中，能源板塊充當了領漲先鋒的角色，原因是昨天原油價格猛漲4.85%至94.39美元。

圖1.1 石油股指數(日線圖)

昨天石油股指數回調至50日均線支撐時被一波強勁買盤托出，最後穩穩地站在均線上方。這是十分有利的。從技術上講，昨天的突破為後市重返100點打下了基礎。支撐位在上周低點、大約86點的位置。

圖1.2 標普500指數(日線圖)

同我們預料中一致，標普週三開盤出現不小反彈，然而股指未能保住上午的勝利成果，說明市場內部猶豫氣氛依然濃重。儘管技術面依然薄弱，但是空頭在成功將股指拉至1360點下方之前並無太多機會。短期阻力位在1525點。

圖 1.3 道瓊斯工業平均指數(日線圖)

昨天道指出現對200日均線的測試，並維持在均線上方。這一點比較鼓舞人心。不過，多頭要想重新奪回控制權，需要等股指攀升至13780點之後。我們提到過，200日均線對股指非常重要，如果跌破該均線，將觸發大量止損，繼之而起的強勁下跌動能將把股指送回11月低點。

總結：儘管大盤週三出現反彈，但技術面依然很疲軟。我們預計未來幾天標普可能進一步下跌至1360點。如果11月份股指對該支撐的突破依然有效，那麼這個位置可能守不住。

(本文作者：Michelle Mai)

Technical background remains very weak

Good Morning. This is Capital Essence's "Market Outlook" (the technical analysis of financial markets) for Thursday December 13, 2007.

Yesterday we've said: "in recent years, the market's responses to monetary edicts come in the frustrating form of several changes of mind over several days – also known as "post-FED hangover". With that said, Tuesday afternoon's sell-the-news reaction might not be the season finale in this year-end drama. Consistent with these thoughts, we believe, the market is due for a counter trend rebound." Stocks started Wednesday trading session sharply higher with the Dow rose almost 300 points at its morning peak. The rally was, however, lost steam as negative developments out of the financial sector weighed on the broader market. For the day, the Dow Jones industrial average gained 41 points. The broader S&P 500 index rose 18 points. The tech-rich NASDAQ composite gained about 9 point.

Of the eight sectors traded higher, energy provided leadership as it rose in conjunction with crude oil prices, which rallied 4.85% to $94.39.

Chart 1.1: Oil Index (daily chart).

Oil broke out decisively after a pullback to support at the area of 50-day moving average was met with an aggressive wave of buying interest. This is bullish. Technically speaking, today's bullish breakout had set the stage for a run back to the 100 level. Support is at last week's low, about 86.

Chart 1.2: Standard & Poors 500 Index (daily chart).

As expected, the index rebound nicely Wednesday's morning. However, a failure to hold on to the early gains is indicative of hesitation among market participants. While the technical background remains very weak, the bears won't have any cases until they manage to push prices below the 1360 level. Short-term resistant is about 1525.

Chart 1.3: Dow Jones Industrial (daily chart).

The blue-chips retested and held above the 200-day moving average. This is encouraging. However, the bulls aren't going to get their groove back until prices climb above the 13780 level. As mentioned, it's very important that the index holds above the 200-day moving average for a decline below this level will trigger all sorts of stops, leading to a strong downside momentum that has the potential to push prices back into November's low.

In summary: despite Wednesday's rebound, the technical background remains very weak. We'll be watching S&P 1360 for downside follow-through to develop in a next couple of days. With that said, if the November breakdown is still in play, this level should not hold.

(By: Michelle Mai for Capital Essence)